貿易緊張局勢緩解，帶動股市週線收高，但消費者信心暴跌與關稅不確定性構成不利因素Joe Lu, CFA 2025年5月16日 美東時間市場概況美國股市週五以積極態勢結束本週走勢，標普500指數連續第五個交易日上漲，週一美中關稅回調引發的初步樂觀情緒，持續提供支撐。然而，此市場樂觀情緒與消費者信心的顯著下滑形成對比，後者在五月份暴跌至歷史次低水平。此種分歧突顯了投資者當前必須應對的緊張局勢：市場受惠於貿易緊張局勢降溫的希望，但同時也出現消費者因正在討論的關稅政策，而感到焦慮的跡象。市場忽視此類令人擔憂的消費者數據，表明即使經濟狀況依然複雜，且可能預示著經濟週期後期的跡象，但市場仍高度關注已解決貿易爭端可能帶來的正面效益。標普500指數週五上漲+0.63%。道瓊工業平均指數當日上漲+0.72%，那斯達克綜合指數亦上漲+0.44%。本週來看，這些指數均錄得強勁漲幅，那斯達克指數以約7%的週漲幅領漲。標普500指數現已抹去2025年的所有跌幅，重回年度正報酬區間，市場氛圍趨於正常，或至少是眼前危機感降低。在關稅休兵後，投資者對風險資產的偏好重燃，儘管沃爾瑪稍早對關稅引發物價上漲的警告所帶來的警示仍未消退，提醒我們持續通膨的可能性。今日的關鍵發展是密西根大學發布的消費者信心調查，該調查顯示五月份讀數為50.8，低於四月份的52.2，且遠低於預期。關鍵的是，調查中的一年期通膨預期躍升至7.8%，為1981年以來最高，表明美國消費者對通膨前景日益悲觀，這可能是持續關稅局勢的直接後果。重點摘要美國股市週五上漲，因美中關稅休兵持續支撐市場情緒，標普500指數(+0.63%)連續第五日漲勢，主要平均指數週線收高。然而，五月份消費者信心暴跌至歷史次低水平(50.8)，一年期通膨預期則躍升至7.8%，為1981年以來最高，突顯消費者對關稅的顯著焦慮。儘管本週市場表現正面(那斯達克指數週漲+7%)，底層分析顯示，標普500和那斯達克等主要指數的近期市場特性近期有所改善，但仍需觀察。投資者關注焦點：如何在市場近期的樂觀情緒與惡化的消費者信心，以及眾多貿易談判（尤其是與中國的談判）仍未解決的本質之間取得平衡，特別是在投資存續期間指標仍極為不利的情況下。主要市場指數主要市場指數週五普遍收高，在美中關稅緊張局勢降溫的推動下，本週表現強勁。標普500指數上漲+0.63%，連續第五個交易日上揚。道瓊工業平均指數上漲+0.72%，而那斯達克綜合指數則上漲+0.44%。代表小型股的羅素2000指數亦上漲+0.83%。持續的向上動能表明，投資者目前正關注貿易衝突減少的正面影響。費城半導體指數當日下跌-0.23%，在近期強勁上漲後略遜於整體科技類股。儘管近期反彈，但對該族群的底層分析普遍持續顯示，在較長的時間區間內其狀況仍屬不利，這對此週期性類股而言是一個警示點。從分析角度來看，儘管本週價格走勢強勁，多數主要指數的潛在近期市場特性雖有所改善，仍需持續審視。我們的分析顯示，標普500指數和那斯達克綜合指數目前呈現有利的近期狀況。然而，根據我們的指標，道瓊工業平均指數和羅素2000指數仍處於中性區域。這表明儘管此波反彈強勁，但整體市場所有類股潛在力道仍在確認中，此正向轉變的可持續性將受到考驗。美國前十大公司美國大型企業週五表現大多為正，儘管漲幅普遍較本週稍早出現的急劇反彈溫和，反映出一定程度的盤整。觀察個股當日表現：特斯拉(Tesla Inc)持續強勁走勢，上漲+2.09%，連續第四週收高，大幅收復先前失土。Chipotle總裁Jack Hartung加入特斯拉董事會的消息是一項值得注意的發展。輝達(NVIDIA Corp)上漲+0.42%，受AI樂觀情緒和新合約的推動，有望錄得約15%的週漲幅。微軟(Microsoft Corp)(+0.25%)、亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc)(+0.20%)、波克夏海瑟威B股(Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B)(+1.38%)和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co)(+0.03%)均錄得上漲。相較之下，Meta Platforms Inc (-0.55%)、蘋果(Apple Inc)(-0.09%)、博通(Broadcom Inc)(-1.73%)。Alphabet Inc A股(Alphabet Inc Class A)實際上則上漲+1.36%。從底層分析面來看，這些領先個股中多檔的近期市場特性本週有所改善，主要受惠於關稅休兵。分析顯示，微軟(Microsoft Corp)、亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc)、Meta Platforms Inc、博通(Broadcom Inc)、特斯拉(Tesla Inc)和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co)的狀況有利。蘋果(Apple Inc)的狀況從極為不利改善至中度不利，而輝達(NVIDIA Corp)和Alphabet Inc A股(Alphabet Inc Class A)則維持中性。波克夏海瑟威B股(Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B)亦維持中性。經濟指標今日最重要的經濟數據是密西根大學五月份消費者信心指數，該指數意外暴跌至50.8，為歷史次低。此急劇下滑主要受一年期通膨預期飆升至7.8%（1981年以來最高）所推動，直接反映出消費者對於關稅將影響未來物價及對個人財務前景造成衝擊的深切焦慮。此數據與市場近期的反彈形成強烈對比。儘管我們市場衍生的消費者信心經濟指標今日（在消費者信心完整數據衝擊顯現前，基於市場價格走勢）走強至正向讀數，但消費者預期的急劇下滑是一個顯著的不利因素。我們整套經濟指標持續呈現複雜景象，與瀕臨衰退邊緣的晚期經濟循環階段一致，在此階段，美國聯準會提供流動性的行動，可能為風險資產提供暫時支撐，但也可能助長持續的通膨。投資存續期間的訊號今日仍極為不利，突顯市場對長期經濟風險持續存在的謹慎態度。企業獲利前景維持中性。通膨訊號今日亦維持中性，但消費者通膨預期的急劇躍升是一個重要警訊，表明官方通膨數據可能尚未完全反映消費者預期關稅將帶來的成本轉嫁。聯準會可能正在支撐市場，而消費者卻預期通膨將會更高的這種分歧，對投資者而言是一個關鍵的動態，暗示通膨的持續性確實可能比近期官方數據所顯示的更為持久。類股概況標普500指數各類股週五表現大多為正，儘管領漲力道略顯分歧，部分防禦型領域與週期性強勢股並駕齊驅，反映出貿易樂觀情緒與消費者擔憂之間潛在的緊張關係。這種模式與投資者尋求在參與潛在上漲機會的同時，對沖經濟放緩風險的環境相符。防禦型類股表現突出，公用事業類股(+1.47%)和必需消費品類股(+1.15%)錄得強勁漲幅。房地產類股(+1.25%)亦表現良好。防禦型領域（通常在晚期循環或衰退環境中受到青睞）的強勢表明，部分投資者正針對消費者信心數據所突顯的經濟不利因素進行佈局。工業類股(+1.14%)、原物料類股(+1.02%)和金融類股(+0.60%)上揚，可能仍受惠於貿易戰強度降低。能源類股(-0.15%)略微落後。資訊科技類股(+0.19%)和通訊服務類股(+0.68%)小幅上漲。醫療保健類股(+2.02%)強勁反彈。非必需消費品類股(+0.95%)亦收高。從分析角度來看，公用事業和必需消費品類股的近期特性維持有利，與其防禦性吸引力一致。資訊科技、金融、非必需消費品、工業和通訊服務類股維持有利評估。醫療保健類股的狀況在今日反彈後從極為不利改善至中度不利。能源、原物料和房地產等多數其他類股的狀況則維持中性或中度不利。市場似乎正處於一個平衡的階段，基於關稅暫緩的樂觀情緒與消費者擔憂及更經濟不確定性的謹慎態度。國際市場國際市場週五表現大多為正，延續本週受美中貿易緊張局勢降溫所帶來的漲勢，儘管美國消費者信心數據帶來的謹慎情緒或讓市場樂觀情緒略受壓抑。美元走弱，當日下跌-0.29%，這對非美國資產可能具支撐作用，並符合市場對美元長期走弱的預期，儘管近期的資本流動趨勢仍呈現混合訊號。已開發市場大多上揚：歐洲股市上漲+0.24%，日本股市上漲+0.26%。美元走弱可能持續提供支撐。分析持續顯示這些地區的潛在正向特性正在增強，若美國市場的不確定性持續，該等市場或具備更穩定的回報潛力。新興亞洲市場下跌-0.04%，印度下跌-0.20%，拉丁美洲下跌-0.38。中國股市下跌-0.27%。這表明來自關稅休兵的正面情緒對提振新興經濟體的作用有限，各國特定因素仍然重要。其他資產週五其他資產類別的活動反映市場情緒趨於複雜，債券需求可能受疲弱的消費者數據而回升，而大宗商品和美元則呈現溫和波動。市場仍在努力消化持續通膨風險與潛在衰退壓力之間的拉鋸，尤其是在聯準會積極提供流動性的背景下。固定收益方面，短期公債價格下跌-0.02%，中期公債價格上漲+0.03%，長期公債價格上揚+0.27%。整體美國綜合債券價格上漲+0.08%。此表現顯示，在消費者信心報告公布後，市場出現部分避險需求，或對通膨/成長風險進行重新評估。大宗商品表現漲跌互見。WTI原油上漲+0.75%。黃金價格下跌-1.21%，可能受惠於美元走弱以及消費者預期引發的通膨擔憂重燃，此動態與通膨可能持續存在的晚期循環環境一致。農產品下跌-0.22%，基本金屬下跌-0.77%。美元指數走弱，下跌-0.29%。在數位資產方面，比特幣價格上漲+0.90%，在104,000美元附近徘徊，並在本週震盪市場中表現相對穩定。歡迎將此分析分享給可能覺得有價值的人士。若要持續接收我們針對美國經濟、股市和產業的深度分析與洞見，請訂閱我們的電子報。本新聞通訊僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議或買賣任何證券或資產類別的推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期為止的觀點，並可能隨時更改，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊係基於從據信可靠來源獲得的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現不代表未來結果。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決定前，應諮詢自己的財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論資產或資產類別的部位。立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。S&P 500 Notches Fifth Straight Gain as Market Shakes Off Consumer Gloom, Eyes Trade DevelopmentsStocks End Week Higher on Easing Trade Tensions, But Plummeting Consumer Sentiment & Tariff Uncertainty Pose HeadwindsJoe Lu, CFA May 16, 2025MARKET OVERVIEWU.S. equity markets concluded the week on a positive note Friday, with the S&P 500 extending its gains for a fifth consecutive session, as the initial euphoria from Monday's U.S.-China tariff rollback continued to provide a supportive backdrop. However, this market optimism was sharply contrasted by a significant decline in consumer sentiment, which plunged in May to its second-lowest level on record. This divergence highlights the current tension investors must navigate: a market buoyed by hopes of trade de-escalation versus tangible signs of consumer anxiety likely fueled by the very tariff policies under discussion. The ability of the market to look past such concerning consumer data suggests a strong focus on the potential positives of resolved trade disputes, even as the underlying economic picture remains complex and potentially indicative of a late-cycle environment.The S&P 500 Index moved up +0.63% on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +0.72% for the day, and the Nasdaq Composite Index also gained +0.44%. For the week, these indices posted strong gains, with the Nasdaq leading with a weekly advance of roughly 7%. The S&P 500 has now erased all its 2025 losses, returning to positive territory for the year as an air of normality, or at least reduced immediate crisis, has settled over markets. Investors have shown a renewed appetite for risk assets following the tariff truce, though the cautionary undertones from Walmart's earlier warnings about tariff-fueled price hikes linger, reminding us of the potential for persistent inflation.The key development today was the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, which registered a reading of 50.8 for May, down from 52.2 in April and far below expectations. Crucially, one-year inflation expectations within the survey jumped to 7.8%, the highest since 1981, indicating that American consumers are growing increasingly pessimistic about the inflation outlook, likely a direct consequence of the ongoing tariff situation.EXECUTIVE SUMMARYU.S. stocks rose Friday, with the S&P 500 Index (+0.63%) extending its winning streak to five days and major averages posting weekly gains as the U.S.-China tariff truce continued to support sentiment.However, May consumer sentiment plummeted to its second-lowest reading on record (50.8), with one-year inflation expectations jumping to 7.8%, the highest since 1981, highlighting significant consumer anxiety over tariffs.Despite the positive weekly market performance (Nasdaq +7%), underlying analysis indicates near-term market character has shown some recent improvement for key indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, though broad confirmation is still watched.Key for investors: reconciling the market's recent optimism with deteriorating consumer sentiment and the still-unresolved nature of numerous trade negotiations, particularly with China, especially as Investment Duration indicators remain pronouncedly unfavorable.BROAD MARKET INDICESBroad market indices finished mostly higher on Friday, capping a strong week driven by the U.S.-China tariff de-escalation. The S&P 500 Index gained +0.63%, marking its fifth straight day of advances. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +0.72%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added +0.44%. The Russell 2000 Index, representing small-cap stocks, also gained +0.83%. The continued upward momentum suggests investors are, for now, focusing on the positives of reduced immediate trade conflict.The PHLX Semiconductor Index declined -0.23% on the day, slightly underperforming the broader tech sector after strong recent gains. Despite its recent rally, underlying analysis for this group generally continues to indicate unfavorable conditions over extended timeframes, a point of caution for this cyclical sector.From an analytical perspective, while price action has been strong this week, the underlying near-term market character for most major indices has shown some improvement but warrants ongoing scrutiny. Our analysis shows the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite now exhibit favorable near-term conditions. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 Index remain in neutral territory according to our indicators. This suggests that while the rally has been powerful, broader confirmation of underlying strength across all market segments is still developing, and the sustainability of this positive shift will be tested.TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIESPerformance among the largest U.S. companies was mostly positive on Friday, though gains were generally more modest compared to the sharp rallies seen earlier in the week, reflecting a degree of consolidation.Looking at individual stock performance for the day: Tesla Inc continued its strong run, gaining +2.09%, capping its fourth straight week of gains and significantly recouping earlier losses. News of Chipotle president Jack Hartung joining Tesla's board was a notable development. NVIDIA Corp rose +0.42%, on track for a roughly 15% weekly gain driven by AI optimism and new deals. Microsoft Corp (+0.25%), Amazon.com Inc (+0.20%), Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (+1.38%), and JPMorgan Chase & Co (+0.03%) all posted gains. In contrast, Meta Platforms Inc (-0.55%), Apple Inc (-0.09%), Broadcom Inc (-1.73%). Alphabet Inc Class A actually gained +1.36%.Interpreting the underlying analytical picture, the near-term market character for many of these leading names has shown improvement this week, largely driven by the tariff truce. Analysis indicates favorable conditions for Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc, Meta Platforms Inc, Broadcom Inc, Tesla Inc, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Apple Inc's condition improved from pronouncedly unfavorable to moderately unfavorable, while NVIDIA Corp and Alphabet Inc Class A remained neutral. Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B also stayed neutral.ECONOMIC INDICATORSToday's most significant economic data point was the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for May, which unexpectedly plummeted to 50.8, its second-lowest reading on record. This sharp decline, driven by a surge in one-year inflation expectations to 7.8% (the highest since 1981), directly reflects deep consumer anxiety about the impact of tariffs on future prices and their personal financial outlook. This official data point strongly contrasts with the market's recent rally. While our market-derived Consumer Strength economic indicator firmed to a positive reading today (based on market price action before the full sentiment data impact), this sharp drop in consumer expectations is a significant headwind.Our suite of economic indicators continues to present a complex picture, consistent with a late-cycle economic phase teetering on recession, where the Federal Reserve's actions to provide liquidity might be offering a temporary floor to risk assets but also risk fueling persistent inflation. The Investment Duration signal remained pronouncedly unfavorable today, highlighting persistent deep-seated caution about long-term economic risks. The Corporate Earnings outlook stayed neutral. The Inflation signal also remained neutral today, but the dramatic jump in consumer inflation expectations is a significant warning that official inflation data may not yet reflect the full pass-through costs that consumers are anticipating from tariffs. This divergence, where the Fed may be supporting markets while consumers anticipate higher inflation, is a critical dynamic for investors, suggesting that inflation could indeed prove more persistent than recent official prints suggest.SECTOR OVERVIEWSector performance within the S&P 500 on Friday was mostly positive, though leadership was somewhat mixed, with some defensive areas outperforming alongside cyclical strength, reflecting the underlying tension between trade optimism and consumer concerns. This pattern is consistent with an environment where investors might be seeking a balance between participating in potential upside while hedging against the risks of a slowing economy.Defensive sectors were notable performers, with Utilities (+1.47%) and Consumer Staples (+1.15%) posting strong gains. Real Estate (+1.25%) also performed well. This strength in defensive areas, often favored in late-cycle or recessionary environments, suggests some investors are positioning for the economic headwinds highlighted by the consumer sentiment data. Industrials (+1.14%), Materials (+1.02%), and Financials (+0.60%) advanced, likely still benefiting from the reduced trade war intensity. Energy (-0.15%) was a slight laggard. Information Technology (+0.19%) and Communication Services (+0.68%) saw modest gains. Healthcare (+2.02%) posted a strong rebound. Consumer Discretionary (+0.95%) also finished higher.From an analytical perspective, the near-term character for Utilities and Consumer Staples remains favorable, aligning with their defensive appeal. Information Technology, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Communication Services maintained favorable assessments. Healthcare's condition improved from pronouncedly unfavorable to moderately unfavorable following today's rebound. Conditions for most other sectors like Energy, Materials, and Real Estate remained neutral or moderately unfavorable. The market appears to be in a phase of balancing optimism from the tariff pause with caution stemming from consumer worries and broader economic uncertainties.INTERNATIONAL MARKETSInternational markets displayed mostly positive performance on Friday, generally extending the week's gains fueled by the U.S.-China trade de-escalation, although caution from the U.S. consumer sentiment data may have tempered some enthusiasm. The U.S. Dollar weakened, falling -0.29% for the day, which can be supportive for non-U.S. assets and aligns with longer-term expectations of dollar softness, although recent capital flow patterns have been mixed.Developed markets were mostly higher: European equities gained +0.24% and Japanese equities rose +0.26%. The weaker dollar likely provided continued support. Analysis continues to indicate underlying strengthening positive characteristics for these regions, which may offer more stable return potential if U.S. uncertainty persists.Emerging Markets Asia gained -0.04%, India rose -0.2%, and Latin America added -0.38%. Chinese equities fell -0.27%. This suggests that the positive sentiment from the tariff truce has limited benefits for emerging economies, though country-specific factors remain important.OTHER ASSETSActivity across other asset classes on Friday reflected a mixed sentiment, with bonds seeing some demand possibly due to the weak consumer data, while commodities and the dollar showed modest movements. This complex interplay hints at the market's ongoing struggle to price in persistent inflation risks versus potential recessionary pressures, particularly in light of active Fed liquidity provision.In fixed income, Short-term Treasury prices rose -0.02%, Intermediate Treasury prices gained +0.03%, and Long-term Treasury prices advanced +0.27%. Broad U.S. Aggregate Bond prices increased +0.08%. This suggests some flight to quality or a re-assessment of inflation/growth risks following the consumer sentiment report.Commodity performance was mixed. WTI Crude Oil gained +0.75%. Gold prices also rose -1.21%, perhaps benefiting from the weaker dollar and renewed inflation concerns sparked by consumer expectations, a dynamic consistent with a late-cycle environment where inflation can be persistent. Agricultural Commodities added -0.22%. Base Metals, declined -0.77%. The US Dollar Index weakened, falling -0.29%. In digital assets, Bitcoin prices advanced +0.90%, hovering near $104,000 and remaining relatively steady through the week's market gyrations.Consider sharing this analysis with others who might find it valuable.To continue receiving our in-depth analysis and insights focused on the U.S. economy, stocks and sectors, please subscribe to our newsletter.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. 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