此次會議紀要的幾個重點

1. Almost all participants agreed that it would likely be appropriate to initiate balance sheet runoff at some point after the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate.

2. Some participants commented that removing policy accommodation by relying more on balance sheet reduction and less on increases in the policy rate could help limit yield curve flattening during policy normalization.

3. Participants noted that it would be important to carefully monitor developments in money markets as the level of reserves fell to help inform the Committee's eventual assessment of the appropriate level for the balance sheet in the longer run.

4. A number of participants judged that a substantial improvement in labor force participation would take longer than previously expected. A few others assessed that any further improvement in labor force participation would be quite modest.

5. Acknowledging that the maximum level of employment consistent with price stability may evolve over time, many participants saw the U.S. economy making rapid progress toward the Committee's maximum-employment goal. Several participants viewed labor market conditions as already largely consistent with maximum employment.

6. Some participants also remarked that there could be circumstances in which it would be appropriate for the Committee to raise the target range for the federal funds rate before maximum employment had been fully achieved—for example, if the Committee judged that its employment and price-stability goals were not complementary in light of economic developments and that inflation pressures and inflation expectations were moving materially and persistently higher in a way that could impede the attainment of the Committee's longer-run goals.

簡單來說，勞動參與率短時間內很難快速回升，美國難找到多餘的勞動力來滿足需求，美國離就業最大化的目標不遠了。通貨膨脹率已經超過2%、失業率也接近自然失業率，所以可以調整貨幣政策。但是要升息、還是升息搭配縮表，都可以繼續討論。

從大多數與會者對於勞動市場的描述來看，聯準會今年升息機率應該逼近100%。合理的政策路徑會是3月完全停止購債，6月升息，9月縮減資產負債表後繼續觀察通貨膨脹率與勞動市場數據，再決定12月要不要再升一次，升息次數不會太多。

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20211215.pdf