J.P.Morgan：2025年五大商業趨勢

J.P. Morgan在最新報告中指出，未來的投資格局正在經歷變革，並總結出未來值得關注的五大趨勢。這些趨勢揭示了新的增長機遇，標誌著下一階段的發展方向。把握這些關鍵趨勢，才能搶佔市場先機，在未來的競爭中佔據一席之地！

Investment innovation sometimes comes in waves; 2025 will be a year of innovation, we believe, as the industry explores new frontiers. While these opportunities may not become a core part of your portfolio, you may find small but meaningful additions to your asset holdings.

投資領域的創新總是以浪潮的形式出現，我們認為2025年將是一個充滿創新的年份。行業將邁向新的前沿，帶來一系列新的機會。雖然這些新興領域的投資可能暫時無法成為你資產組合的核心，但它們很可能會為你的投資帶來小而重要的補充，助你拓展資產的潛在價值。

Evergreen alternatives

One new frontier, open-ended evergreen alternative funds, is rising in popularity. In fact, 50% of our alternative commitments in 2024 were in evergreen fund structures, up from 33% in the prior year. While many alternative asset funds have a fixed end date or maturity, open-end evergreen funds (with no fixed end date) have started to take off.

Evergreen private credit funds amassed assets in the early 2020s, in part because regulations constrained banks’ ability to extend loans. In 2025, we expect evergreen private equity to experience a similar growth trajectory. Today, evergreen private equity is concentrated: Around 75% of current assets under management are invested in the top 20 strategies. But in 2025, we will be partnering with several managers to develop strategies we think can deliver differentiated private equity exposure in semi-liquid vehicles. Indeed, there are 50 funds currently in the SEC registration process that are expected to launch in the next several months.

Evergreen alternatives offer a few key benefits: access to private investment strategies at lower minimum investment amounts; the ability to buy into a seasoned investment portfolio; and most importantly, the potential to access liquidity on a periodic (e.g., monthly or quarterly) cadence.

Evergreen funds also offer a simpler approach compared with closed-end funds. Getting fully invested at the right strategic weight requires only a one-time decision, and your capital can be reinvested to compound over time.

At the same time, we note a few caveats. Evergreen strategies tend to have higher fees and lower returns than closed-end funds that “draw down” their capital from investors. Importantly, redemption schedules of evergreen funds may be impacted by the occasional illiquidity of their underlying investments. That could be a challenge: Investors tend to want liquidity most during periods of economic and market stress.

We think open-ended evergreen and closed-end drawdown strategies can be complementary in a diversified investment portfolio. Investors who prioritize simplicity may emphasize evergreen strategies, while those who focus on absolute return might gravitate more toward traditional drawdown funds.

一、常青替代基金

常青基金的意思是“一種長期穩定的投資基金”

開放式常青替代基金正成為投資界的新寵，吸引了越來越多的關注。2024年，我們替代資產投資中有50%分配給了常青基金，相較2023年的33%有了顯著提升。這種沒有固定到期日的開放式基金，與傳統的固定期限基金不同，正迅速獲得市場青睞。

在2020年代早期，常青私募信貸基金受益於監管對銀行貸款能力的限制而快速崛起。到2025年，常青私募股權基金預計也將迎來類似的發展路徑。目前，約75%的常青私募股權基金資產集中在前20個投資策略中。但未來可能會更加多樣化：資料顯示，美國證券交易委員會（SEC）正在審查多達50隻新基金，預計這些基金將在未來幾個月內推出。

常青替代基金的獨特優勢

1. 投資門檻更低：為投資者提供以較少資金參與高品質私人投資策略的機會。

2. 投資組合更成熟：允許投資者直接進入已建立且運行穩定的投資組合。

3. 流動性更高：通常支援每月或每季度贖回，為投資者提供靈活的資金周轉能力。

相比傳統封閉式基金，常青基金操作更為簡便。只需一次性決策即可達到目標組態權重，資金也可以持續再投資，從而實現長期複利增長。

風險

1. 費用較高：常青基金的管理費用通常高於傳統封閉式基金，而回報率可能略低。

2. 流動性風險：由於底層資產的流動性受限，在市場波動較大時可能面臨贖回限制。

策略

我們認為，常青基金與傳統封閉式基金可以在多元化資產組態中形成互補。如果你追求操作的簡便性和流動性，常青基金可能更適合；而如果你更看重長期絕對回報，可以優先考慮傳統封閉式基金。

Sports & streaming

Traditionally, owning a sports team had more in common with owning a Rembrandt or a collection of classic cars than it did with owning public and private equities. But as sports leagues relax their ownership rules, potential sports investors can find new frontiers to explore.

The case for investing in sports is simple. First, sporting events are one of the few media experiences that reliably attract significant viewership. No wonder the total value of sports M&A and investment has increased by 8x over the past five years, while all public M&A and investment has declined by 40%.33

Second, the barriers to entry remain high for any new sports franchise, a benefit for any existing franchise owner. The number of franchises in the United States is strictly governed by their respective league rules, and the global hierarchy of leagues seems established.

But sports investing comes with challenges. The leagues’ most important historical partners, traditional broadcast (terrestrial) television networks, seem to be in inexorable states of decline. We would not be surprised to see the traditional media players consolidate, while the tech-enabled streaming services pay increasing premiums to access sports rights.

Ultimately, the bull case for sports investing seems likely to prevail. The National Football League (NFL) is also loosening its investment rules to allow more institutional capital, and major changes in collegiate athletics will likely necessitate capital solutions. We expect deal activity and equity and credit investment in sports and sports-related assets to outpace other industries.

二、體育與串流媒體投資的崛起

過去，擁有一支體育球隊更像是收藏一幅珍貴的畫作或經典老爺車，而非傳統意義上的投資選擇。但隨著體育聯盟逐漸放寬所有權規則，體育投資正成為一個備受關注的新興領域，為投資者帶來全新的探索空間。

為什麼投資體育？

體育賽事是為數不多能夠持續吸引大量觀眾的媒體內容之一，這使其具備長期價值。過去五年，體育相關併購和投資總額增長了8倍，而整個公開市場的併購與投資卻下滑了40%。其次，體育行業的進入門檻非常高，這對現有特許經營者來說是一項重大優勢。美國的體育特許經營數量受到嚴格管控，全球體育聯賽的層級體系也已經形成穩定格局。

風險

體育聯盟的傳統合作夥伴——廣播電視網路，正在經歷衰退期。另外串流媒體平台的崛起正在改變行業格局。這些平台願意支付更高的價格爭奪體育賽事版權，推動市場競爭加劇。未來，傳統媒體可能會進一步整合，而串流媒體的介入將重塑體育賽事傳播方式。

樂觀前景：牛市邏輯依舊成立

儘管面臨挑戰，體育投資的潛力依然巨大。以美國國家橄欖球聯盟（NFL）為例，他們正在放寬投資規則，吸引更多機構資本進入這一領域。同時，美國大學體育領域正在經歷深刻變革，這將帶來新的資本需求。可以預見，體育及其相關資產的交易活動將在未來幾年持續升溫，股權和信貸投資的表現很可能超越許多傳統行業。

體育投資的戰略價值

體育投資正從“興趣愛好”向“戰略資產類別”轉變。未來的增長不僅依賴於行業規則的逐步放開，還得益於串流媒體技術帶來的推動。如果你正在尋找一個具備長期增長潛力的投資方向，體育投資無疑值得重點關注。

The 21st century space race

The global economy is already reliant on space. Satellites and other positioning, navigation and timing technologies are integral to location and communication services that enable industries from television to food delivery. Innovation from companies such as SpaceX has driven down the cost to launch a satellite by 10x over the past 20 years, and we expect that satellite enhancements will support more effective communications and observation technology.

This could be crucial for global connectivity, and could enable breakthroughs in data-intensive processes such as automation. Other use cases include imaging to track movements, which could help manage supply chains, predict and respond to natural disasters, and track construction projects.

Space will also continue to be a focus for sovereign security. The U.S. Department of Defense’s budget requests for space-based systems have increased from roughly USD 9 billion in 2019 to more than USD 25 billion in 2025. India landed a spacecraft on the South Pole of the moon. Japan and the United States are partnering on more accurate positioning technology. Peru, Saudi Arabia and Thailand have all prioritized space in their economic development plans.

Space tourism could grow to be a USD 5 billion per year industry in the next 10 years. Consulting firm McKinsey & Co. predicts that the space economy will grow at more than twice the pace of global GDP for the next decade, becoming a USD 2 trillion industry by 2035.

三、21世紀的“太空經濟”競賽

太空科技已經深深融入我們的日常生活。從衛星導航到通訊服務，甚至是外賣配送，許多行業都離不開太空技術的支援。像SpaceX這樣的公司，通過技術創新，讓發射衛星的成本在過去20年降低了10倍。未來，衛星技術的升級，不僅能提升全球通訊能力，還能在自動化等領域帶來革命性突破。

這些技術還可以用於更實際的應用場景，比如利用衛星影像追蹤物流動態，最佳化供應鏈，預測並應對自然災害，甚至即時監控建築工程。可以說，太空科技正在成為各行業效率提升的幕後功臣。

在國家層面，太空安全和主權佈局也越來越受重視。美國國防部在太空系統上的預算從2019年的90億美元飆升至2025年的250億美元以上；印度成功將探測器送上月球南極；美國和日本正在聯手開發更精準的定位技術。而像秘魯、沙烏地阿拉伯和泰國這樣的國家，也將太空技術納入了經濟發展規劃。

還有，太空旅遊也被看作一個潛力巨大的新興市場，預計在未來10年成為一個年收入達到50億美元的行業。麥肯錫預測，未來10年，太空經濟的增速將是全球GDP增速的兩倍，預計到2035年市場規模將達到2兆美元。

無論是國家安全，還是經濟增長，太空經濟正在成為一個無法忽視的新賽道。未來，抓住這一機遇的國家和企業，或許就能站上下一個時代的制高點。

Liability management

Over the last two years, many borrowers have been carrying interest costs that were based on 5%+ short-term interest rates. As the market begins to anticipate future policy rate cuts, borrowers can lock in lower rates regardless of whether the rate cuts materialize. At one point in September, it was possible to fix base SOFR interest costs at 2.90%–3.25% for 2–5 years, given that the markets reflected an aggressive Federal Reserve cutting cycle. Clients can further adjust their borrowing costs using tools such as vanilla and structured interest rate swaps, caps and collars to lock in or manage toward even lower rates than the market is currently offering.

Mortgage activity also reflects dynamic management of market conditions—in particular, interest rate expectations. In September, J.P. Morgan Private Bank mortgage purchase applications were at their highest levels since June 2023, and refinance applications were at their highest since the summer of 2022. Some 70% of our mortgage applications were for adjustable-rate loans, the highest share in at least five years. This suggests that borrowers are doing their best to seek out the lowest possible rates, and they expect rates to fall in the future.

We may see other opportunities like this in the year ahead. Whether or not you engage in liability management, as borrowing costs fall, we expect to see an uptick in credit demand from home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), portfolio lines of credit, and mortgage purchases and refinances. Falling rates also matter for estate planning: Intra-family loan rates are less onerous, as are hurdle rates for grantor retained annuity trusts (vehicles in which asset appreciation above the hurdle rate is passed to the beneficiary free of estate taxes).

四、債務管理：抓住降息預期帶來的機遇

過去兩年，許多借款人一直面臨超過5%的高額利息成本。隨著市場逐漸反映未來可能的降息訊號，現在正是鎖定低利率的良機，即使降息最終未兌現，借款人也可以提前受益。比如9月份的時候，市場對聯準會可能採取激進降息措施的預期推動基礎SOFR利率可鎖定在2.90%至3.25%之間，期限為2至5年。此外，通過使用普通或結構化利率掉期、利率上限或利率區間協議等工具，借款人還能進一步降低利率，甚至實現比當前市場更優的成本。

抵押貸款市場的靈活應對

抵押貸款市場的表現也反映了借款人對利率環境變化的敏銳反應。9月份，摩根大通私人銀行的抵押貸款購房申請量達到2023年6月以來的最高水平，再融資申請量更是攀升至2022年夏季以來的峰值。其中，可調整利率貸款佔比高達70%，創下五年來的新高。這一趨勢表明，借款人正積極尋找利率窪地，同時對未來利率下降充滿信心。

更多機會

未來一年，這類鎖定利率的機會可能會進一步增多。無論你是否主動進行債務管理，我們預計，隨著借款成本下降，房屋淨值信貸額度（HELOC）、投資組合信貸額度，以及抵押貸款購買和再融資的需求將持續走高。同時，降息對遺產規劃也有顯著益處：家庭內部貸款的利率將更低，而保留年金信託（GRAT）的門檻利率也會下降，這意味著資產增值部分可以以免遺產稅的形式轉移給受益人。

把握時機，未雨綢繆

隨著聯準會政策訊號的轉變，現在正是借助工具提前鎖定低利率的好時機。這一策略不僅能夠幫助你有效降低借貸成本，還能為未來的財務規劃提供更大的靈活性和保障。在當前經濟環境下，這種前瞻性規劃將助您更好地應對未來的不確定性，實現財務目標。

Reimagined Cities

The physical landscape of cities is shifting. It’s a post-pandemic phenomenon with global reach.

Even before COVID, cities were changing. In the United States, aging millennials were migrating to more affordable suburban areas. The pandemic and the proliferation of work-from-home arrangements supercharged the dynamic. Now, new development in many U.S. cities (including Boston, Indianapolis, and the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area) features low-rise, garden-style multifamily properties; office buildings in premier suburbs and fringe urban areas; and redeveloped mixed-use retail.

Globally, rent growth in urban fringe and suburban fringe markets such as Gangnam (Seoul), Fulton Market (Chicago), and Bahnhofsviertel (Frankfurt) has outpaced central business district (CBD) rent growth by 2.5x–9x over the past five years. We expect this trend will continue.

Meanwhile, city governments and investors will increasingly partner to convert lower-quality, older class B and C office buildings to more productive uses (e.g., housing or even data centers). Over 80% of the office space in cities such as Chicago, Frankfurt, and Singapore was built before 2015. That said, new construction of LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) certified class A office space continues to thrive. Some examples include the Salesforce Tower in Sydney and CapitaSpring in Singapore. J.P. Morgan’s new headquarters, which is set to open in New York City in the summer of 2025, will be one of the new office towers changing the skylines of cities around the world.

OUTSIDE CITIES’ CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICTS, RENT GROWTH IS PICKING UP

五、未來城市

城市的面貌正在悄然改變，這是一種全球範圍的後疫情時代現象。

其實城市的轉型早在疫情暴發之前就已悄然啟動。在美國，許多中年千禧一代因追求更高的性價比而遷往郊區居住。而疫情的到來，以及遠端辦公的普及，則進一步加速了這一處理程序。如今，像波士頓、印第安納波利斯以及達拉斯-沃斯堡都市圈這樣的城市，已經開始湧現出新型開發項目。這些項目不再以高密度的市中心為核心，而是轉向低層花園式多戶住宅、優質郊區或城市邊緣的辦公樓，以及經過改造的多功能商業綜合體。

城市邊緣的租金漲勢超越市中心

從全球來看，城市邊緣和郊區的吸引力正在上升。比如首爾的江南、芝加哥的富爾頓市場和法蘭克福的火車站區，這些區域過去五年的租金增速是市中心的2.5到9倍。隨著人口和商業活動向邊緣擴展，這一趨勢預計還會延續。

老舊辦公樓的再利用與高端新項目

許多城市正在嘗試將老舊辦公樓轉型為更高效的用途，比如住宅或者資料中心。在芝加哥、法蘭克福和新加坡，超過80%的辦公樓建於2015年之前，這些建築質量偏低，利用效率不高。相比之下，新建的高品質辦公樓卻表現搶眼。例如，雪梨的Salesforce Tower、新加坡的CapitaSpring大廈，以及計畫於2025年夏季完工的摩根大通紐約總部，都代表了高端建築的未來方向。這些項目不僅提升了建築質量，還為城市增添了新的標誌性景觀。

城市發展的新方向

從全球視角來看，城市邊緣地帶正成為開發熱土，其租金增長遠超傳統市中心，吸引了大量投資和人口遷移。城市政府和投資者通過老舊建築改造與新建項目相結合，為城市帶來了更多靈活性與多樣化選擇。未來，隨著這些趨勢持續推進，城市將朝著更加宜居、高效的方向發展，真正實現人居與經濟的雙贏。

(行業調研報告)