經濟學人警告：中國低成本AI模型正威脅美國的領先地位

中國AI正在奮起直追

中國通過低成本AI模型的快速發展和硬體創新，正在迅速縮小與美國的技術差距，威脅其全球科技霸權，並可能顛覆現有的科技經濟格局。美國需摒棄技術領先的“理所當然”心態，持續創新以應對中國挑戰。

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Chinese AI is catching up, posing a dilemma for Donald Trump
中國人工智慧正在追趕，給唐納德·川普帶來難題

The success of cheap Chinese models threatens America’s technological lead
低成本中國模型的成功正威脅美國的技術領先地位

Jan 24st 2025

If there is a single technology America needs to bring about the “thrilling new era of national success” that President Donald Trump promised in his inauguration speech, it is generative artificial intelligence. At the very least, AI will add to the next decade’s productivity gains, fuelling economic growth. At the most, it will power humanity through a transformation comparable to the Industrial Revolution.
如果有一項技術能夠實現唐納德·川普總統在就職演說中承諾的“激動人心的國家成功新時代”，那必然是生成式人工智慧。至少，人工智慧將推動未來十年的生產力提升，促進經濟增長；而往大處說，它將引領人類經歷一場堪比工業革命的變革。

Mr Trump’s hosting the next day of the launch of “the largest AI infrastructure project in history” shows he grasps the potential. But so does the rest of the world—and most of all, China. Even as Mr Trump was giving his inaugural oration, a Chinese firm released the latest impressive large language model (LLM). Suddenly, America’s lead over China in AI looks smaller than at any time since ChatGPT became famous.
川普在就職次日主持啟動“史上最大規模人工智慧基礎設施項目”，表明他深知這項技術的潛力。但世界其他國家也意識到了這一點——尤其是中國。就在川普發表就職演說時，一家中國公司發佈了最新的大型語言模型（LLM）。自ChatGPT成名以來，美國在人工智慧領域對中國的領先優勢已縮小到前所未有的程度。

China’s catch-up is startling because it had been so far behind—and because America had set out to slow it down. So America has curtailed exports to China of the best chips for training AI and cut off China’s access to many of the machines needed to make substitutes. Behind its protective wall, Silicon Valley has swaggered. Chinese researchers devour American papers on AI; Americans have rarely returned the compliment.
中國的追趕令人震驚，因為它曾遠遠落後——而美國也曾試圖拖慢其步伐。因此，美國限制向中國出口用於訓練人工智慧的高端晶片，並切斷中國獲取製造替代品所需裝置的管道。在保護牆後，矽谷一度自信滿滿。中國研究人員如飢似渴地研讀美國的人工智慧論文，而美國人卻很少給予對等的關注。

Yet China’s most recent progress is upending the industry and embarrassing American policymakers. The success of the Chinese models, combined with industry-wide changes, could turn the economics of AI on its head. America must prepare for a world in which Chinese AI is breathing down its neck.
然而，中國最近的進展正在顛覆行業格局，令美國政策制定者感到尷尬。中國模型的成功，加上全行業的變革，可能徹底改變人工智慧的經濟邏輯。美國必須為一個中國人工智慧緊追不捨的世界做好準備。

China’s LLMs are not the very best. But they are far cheaper to make. QwQ, owned by Alibaba, an e-commerce giant, was launched in November and is less than three months behind America’s top models. DeepSeek, whose creator was spun out of an investment firm, ranks seventh by one benchmark. It was apparently trained using 2,000 second-rate chips—versus 16,000 first-class chips for Meta’s model, which DeepSeek beats on some rankings. The cost of training an American LLM is tens of millions of dollars and rising. DeepSeek’s owner says it spent under $6m.
中國的大型語言模型並非最頂尖的，但其製造成本要低得多。電商巨頭阿里巴巴旗下的QwQ於11月推出，與美國頂級模型的差距不到三個月。由一家投資公司分拆成立的DeepSeek在某項基準測試中排名第七。據悉，該模型使用2000塊次品晶片訓練，而Meta的模型使用了16000塊頂級晶片，但DeepSeek在某些排名中卻擊敗了Meta。訓練一個美國LLM的成本高達數千萬美元且仍在攀升，而DeepSeek的所有者稱其花費不到600萬美元。

American firms can copy DeepSeek’s techniques if they want to, because its model is open-source. But cheap training will change the industry at the same time as model design is evolving. China’s inauguration-day release was DeepSeek’s “reasoning” model, designed to compete with a state-of-the-art offering by OpenAI. These models talk to themselves before answering a query. This “thinking” produces a better answer, but it also uses more electricity. As the quality of output goes up, the costs mount.
美國企業若願意，可以複製DeepSeek的技術，因為其模型是開放原始碼的。但低成本的訓練將與模型設計的革新同步改變行業。中國在就職日發佈的DeepSeek“推理”模型，旨在與OpenAI的尖端產品競爭。這類模型在回答查詢前會進行自我對話。這種“思考”能生成更優答案，但也消耗更多電力。隨著輸出質量的提升，成本也在飆升。

The result is that, just as China has brought down the fixed cost of building models, so the marginal cost of querying them is going up. If those two trends continue, the economics of the tech industry would invert. In web search and social networking, replicating a giant incumbent like Google involved enormous fixed costs of investment and the capacity to bear huge losses. But the cost per search was infinitesimal. This—and the network effects inherent to many web technologies—made such markets winner-takes-all.
結果是，中國既降低了建構模型的固定成本，也推高了模型查詢的邊際成本。如果這兩大趨勢持續，科技行業的經濟邏輯將發生逆轉。在網頁搜尋和社交網路領域，複製Google這樣的巨頭需要巨額固定投資和承受虧損的能力，但每次搜尋的成本微乎其微。這種特性——加上許多網路技術固有的網路效應——使得這些市場呈現贏家通吃的局面。

If good-enough AI models can be trained relatively cheaply, then models will proliferate, especially as many countries are desperate to have their own. And a high cost-per-query may likewise encourage more built-for-purpose models that yield efficient, specialized answers with minimal querying.
如果足夠好的人工智慧模型能以較低成本訓練出來，模型將迅速擴散——尤其當許多國家迫切希望擁有自己的模型時。而高昂的查詢成本也可能推動更多專用模型的誕生，這些模型能以最少的查詢生成高效、專業的答案。

The other consequence of China’s breakthrough is that America faces asymmetric competition. It is now clear that China will innovate around obstacles such as a lack of the best chips, whether by efficiency gains or by compensating for an absence of high-quality hardware with more quantity. China’s homegrown chips are getting better, including those designed by Huawei, a technology firm that a generation ago achieved widespread adoption of its telecoms equipment with a cheap-and-cheerful approach.
中國突破的另一後果是，美國面臨不對稱競爭。如今顯而易見的是，中國將繞過“缺乏頂級晶片”等障礙進行創新——無論是通過效率提升，還是以數量彌補高品質硬體的不足。中國本土晶片正在進步，包括華為設計的晶片。這家科技公司曾以“物美價廉”的策略讓一代人廣泛使用其電信裝置。

If China stays close to the frontier, it could be the first to make the leap to superintelligence. Should that happen, it might gain more than just a military advantage. In a superintelligence scenario, winner-takes-all dynamics may suddenly reassert themselves. Even if the industry stays on today’s track, the widespread adoption of Chinese AI around the world could give the CCP enormous political influence, at least as worrying as the propaganda threat posed by TikTok, a Chinese-owned video-sharing app whose future in America remains unclear.
如果中國保持在技術前沿附近，它可能率先實現向超級智能的飛躍。若真如此，中國獲得的將不僅是軍事優勢。在超級智能的圖景中，贏家通吃的邏輯可能突然重現。即使行業維持現狀，中國人工智慧在全球的廣泛應用也可能賦予中國共產黨巨大的政治影響力——其威脅程度至少不亞於TikTok（一款中國擁有的視訊分享應用，其在美國的未來仍不明朗）所引發的宣傳擔憂。

What should Mr Trump do? His infrastructure announcement was a good start. America must clear legal obstacles to building data centers. It should also ensure that hiring foreign engineers is easy, and reform defense procurement to encourage the rapid adoption of AI.
川普應該怎麼做？他宣佈的基礎設施計畫是一個良好的開端。美國必須掃清建設資料中心的法規障礙，還應確保能輕鬆僱傭外國工程師，並改革國防採購制度以加速人工智慧的應用。

Some argue that he should also repeal the chip-industry export bans. The Biden administration conceded that the ban failed to contain Chinese AI. Yet that does not mean it accomplished nothing. In the worst case, AI could be as deadly as nuclear weapons. America would never ship its adversaries the components for nukes, even if they had other ways of getting them. Chinese AI would surely be stronger still if it now regained easy access to the very best chips.
有人認為，川普還應廢除晶片行業出口禁令。拜登政府承認，禁令未能遏制中國人工智慧的發展，但這並不意味著它毫無作用。最壞情況下，人工智慧可能與核武器一樣致命。美國絕不會向對手提供核武器部件，即便對手有其他獲取途徑。如果中國現在重新輕鬆獲得頂級晶片，其人工智慧必將更加強大。

Agencies or agency
自主權與監管之爭

More important is to pare back Mr Biden’s draft “AI diffusion rule”, which would govern which countries have access to American technology. This is designed to force other countries into America’s AI ecosystem, but the tech industry has argued that, by laying down red tape, it will do the opposite. With every Chinese advance, this objection becomes more credible. If America assumes that its technology is the only option for the likes of India or Indonesia, it risks overplaying its hand. Some tech whizzes promise the next innovation will once again put America far in front. Perhaps. But it would be dangerous to take America’s lead for granted. ■
更重要的是削減拜登提出的“人工智慧擴散規則”草案。該規則旨在規定那些國家能獲得美國技術，目的是迫使其他國家融入美國的人工智慧生態。但科技行業認為，繁文縟節將適得其反。隨著中國的每一次進步，這種質疑變得更有說服力。如果美國認為印度或印尼等國只能依賴其技術，就可能高估自身優勢。一些技術天才承諾，下一輪創新將再次讓美國遙遙領先。或許如此。但若將美國的領先視為理所當然，將是危險的。■

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1. 複雜高級詞彙與詞組列表

Generative artificial intelligence

發音: /ˈdʒenərətɪv ˌɑːrtɪˈfɪʃ(ə)l ˌɪnˈtelɪdʒəns/ (n)
詞根與詞綴:

Generative: 源自拉丁語 generare（生成），後綴 -ive 表示“具有生成能力的”。

Artificial: 拉丁語 artificium（人工），arti-（技巧） + -ficium（製作）。

Intelligence: 拉丁語 intelligentia（理解力）。
用法:
指能夠自主生成內容（如文字、圖像）的人工智慧技術。
常見搭配:

generative AI models（生成式AI模型）

applications of generative artificial intelligence（生成式人工智慧的應用）
詞源:
組合詞，強調“生成”與“智能”的結合。
例句:
Generative artificial intelligence is key to the next technological revolution.
生成式人工智慧是下一次技術革命的核心。

Asymmetric competition

發音: /ˌeɪsɪˈmetrɪk ˌkɒmpəˈtɪʃ(ə)n/ (n)
詞根與詞綴:

Asymmetric: 希臘語 a-（非） + symmetria（對稱）。

Competition: 拉丁語 competere（共同追求）。
用法:
指競爭雙方資源、策略或優勢不對等的競爭形式。
常見搭配:

face asymmetric competition（面臨不對稱競爭）

economic asymmetric competition（經濟不對稱競爭）
詞源:
“非對稱”強調雙方力量不均。
例句:
China’s breakthrough forces America into asymmetric competition.
中國的突破迫使美國陷入不對稱競爭。

Superintelligence

發音: /ˌsuːpərɪnˈtelɪdʒəns/ (n)
詞根與詞綴:

Super-: 拉丁語前綴，意為“超越”。

Intelligence: 同上。
用法:
指超越人類水平的智能，常被用於討論人工智慧的終極目標。
常見搭配:

achieve superintelligence（實現超級智能）

risks of superintelligence（超級智能的風險）
詞源:
組合詞，強調“超越人類智能”。
例句:
If China stays close to the frontier, it could leap to superintelligence.
若中國保持技術前沿，可能率先躍升至超級智能。

Winner-takes-all

發音: /ˈwɪnər teɪks ɔːl/ (adj)
詞根與詞綴:

短語，非傳統詞根結構。
用法:
描述市場競爭中勝者壟斷大部分資源的模式。
常見搭配:

winner-takes-all dynamics（贏家通吃機制）

winner-takes-all markets（贏家通吃市場）
詞源:
源自經濟學，強調競爭結果的極端集中性。
例句:
In AI, winner-takes-all dynamics may dominate the future.
人工智慧領域可能由贏家通吃機制主導未來。

Red tape

發音: /red teɪp/ (n)
詞根與詞綴:

習語，原指政府檔案上的紅色綁帶，象徵官僚程序。
用法:
指繁瑣的行政程序或官僚主義障礙。
常見搭配:

cut through red tape（簡化官僚程序）

excessive red tape（過度官僚主義）
詞源:
16世紀英國政府用紅帶捆綁法律檔案，後引申為官僚拖延。
例句:
Biden’s “AI diffusion rule” may create more red tape.
拜登的“AI擴散規則”可能滋生更多官僚障礙。

2. 複雜長難句解析

例句:

“If there is a single technology America needs to bring about the ‘thrilling new era of national success’ that President Donald Trump promised in his inauguration speech, it is generative artificial intelligence.”
結構解析:

主句: “it is generative artificial intelligence”

it 指代前文提到的“技術”。

條件從句: “If there is a single technology America needs...”

If 引導假設條件，修飾主句。

定語從句: “that President Donald Trump promised...”

that 修飾“new era”，說明承諾的來源。
翻譯:
如果有一項技術能實現川普總統在就職演說中承諾的“激動人心的國家成功新時代”，那便是生成式人工智慧。

例句:

“The result is that, just as China has brought down the fixed cost of building models, so the marginal cost of querying them is going up.”
結構解析:

主句: “The result is that...”

that 引導表語從句，說明結果。

對比結構: “just as..., so...”

並列對比中國降低固定成本與邊際成本上升的現象。
翻譯:
結果是，中國既降低了建構模型的固定成本，也推高了模型查詢的邊際成本。

3. 文章結構解析

1. 引言（背景與核心論點）

提出核心問題：中國AI快速追趕，威脅美國技術霸權，令川普政府陷入困境。

引用川普的“國家成功新時代”願景，強調生成式AI的戰略意義。

2. 中美技術競爭現狀

中國追趕速度: 以阿里巴巴的QwQ和DeepSeek為例，說明低成本模型的競爭力。

美國限制措施: 晶片出口禁令未能有效遏制中國，反而激發其創新（如華為晶片）。

3. 技術與經濟影響

成本結構變化: 固定成本下降 vs. 邊際成本上升，可能顛覆科技行業經濟邏輯。

不對稱競爭: 中國通過數量替代質量，繞過技術封鎖。

4. 戰略與政治風險

超級智能潛力: 若中國率先突破，可能壟斷技術並擴大政治影響力。

TikTok類比: 中國AI全球普及或帶來類似TikTok的“宣傳威脅”。

5. 政策建議

川普的選項:

加快AI基礎設施建設，簡化資料中心法規。

改革晶片出口政策，平衡安全與競爭需求。

批判拜登政策: “AI擴散規則”可能適得其反，需減少官僚障礙。

6. 結論

警告美國勿高估自身優勢，需持續創新以應對中國挑戰。 (英文外刊小站)