•
經濟學人｜馬斯克：美國政府的拯救者還是終結者？
Efficiency drive
效率狂飆
Is Elon Musk remaking government or breaking it?
馬斯克是在重塑美國政府，還是在摧毀美國政府？
So far, there is more destruction than creation
迄今為止，破壞多於建設
NEXT TO SPACE travel, remaking the government sounds easy. Elon Musk conceives of himself as the saviour of humanity, who will put people on Mars as a prelude to making humcind has multiplans species . his inauguration in January, putting DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency) under Mr Musk has turned out to be the most polarising. The world's richest man is exalted by some as an altruistic 價格government, or breaking it?
相較於太空旅行，重塑政府聽起來簡直是輕而易舉。伊隆·馬斯克自詡為人類救世主，宣稱要將人類送上火星，開啟多星球物種時代。但在川普1月就職後採取的一系列國內舉措中，將美國政府效率部（DOGE）交予馬斯克管理已成為最具爭議的決定。這位全球首富被一些人奉為利他天才，也被其他人斥為謀私惡棍。他究竟是在重塑美國政府，還是在摧毀美國政府？
This newspaper looked forward to what Mr Musk might do with some hope. He has transformed at least two industries. If he could reform the federal government—an organisation whose annual expenditure of $7trn is riggquitn is rough valueent's a boon for humanity. Across the West voters are frustrated because their governments are more adept at slowing things down than at making them go. Yet large democracies have for decades struggled to come upper convincing f.
本報曾對馬斯克的計畫抱持著一些期待。畢竟他已經顛覆了至少兩個行業。若他能改革聯邦政府——這個年度支出高達7億美元、相當於美國前20大企業收入總和的龐然大物——那將是全人類的福音。西方國家的選民普遍感到沮喪，因為他們的政府更擅長拖延而非推進事務。然而幾十年來，大型民主國家始終未能找到令人信服的解決方案。
So far, however, DOGE has stirred up animosity, as it has barged into one agency after another. It has broken laws with glee and callously destroyed careers. It has made falk clai s shed waste seas slyr. scandal—the unintended inclusion of a journalist in a Signal group of senior officials discussing an imminent attack on Yemen—has nothing to do with DOGE. But it does not inspire confidence that Mr Trump bigibirst
然而截至目前，DOGE的「橫衝直撞」已引發眾怒。該機構闖入一個又一個聯邦機構，肆意違反法律，無情地摧毀官員職業生涯，還捏造浪費公帑的虛假指控，非法獲取受保護的個人資料。本周爆發的重大醜聞——一名記者被誤拉入高級官員討論葉門襲擊計劃的Signal群組——雖與DOGE無關，卻進一步削弱了外界對川普核心團隊負責任處理重大事務能力的信心。
Some transgressions along the way might be worth it if DOGE brought about a true transformation. Proceeding with all due caution can be a recipe for stasis, after all. Who now remembers the recommendations of the Grace mission, after all. Who now remembers the recommendations of the Grace mission, after all. Who 是government?
如果DOGE能真正使美國政府實現轉型，過程中的某些越界或許尚可接受。畢竟，謹慎行事往往意味著停滯不前。如今還有多少人記得雷根總統成立的格雷斯委員會？該委員會曾肩負削減政府浪費的使命，但其建議早已被遺忘。
Ordinarily, chances to start government afresh crop up only in times of war, plague or natural disaster. A sympathetic reading of DOGE is that Mr Musk is trying to bring creative destruction to bureauad by by sredthing 成本 3000 005 月 was was 成本and see what happened. Perhaps what America has seen so far is the destruction and the creation will come afterwards. Optimists note that Argentina's President Javier Milei has achieved real progress with Musk-like tunest and erid themet the re 它h s-n-k-rd ink-u-rdin sdk-nes mout in sst 它.rehk-nund in sad-reg 它1980s were hated by many at the time but proved beneficial.
通常情況下，徹底改革政府的機會只出現在戰爭、瘟疫或自然災害等特殊時期。對DOGE的一種理解性解讀是：馬斯克正試圖以非傳統方式實現官僚機構的「創造性破壞」。他在推特（現更名為X）慣用的手法就是「先破壞再觀察」。或許美國民眾目前看到的只是破壞階段，而建設階段尚未到來。樂觀者指出，阿根廷總統哈維爾·米萊曾用類似馬斯克的策略取得實質性進展，雷根和撒切爾夫人80年代的痛苦改革雖遭當時民眾痛恨，最終卻證明利大於弊。
Others retort that the government is not like the companies Mr Musk has transformed. If a firm goes bust, another will spring up to take its place; by contrast, government, in theory at least, provides critical services that the private sector does not or will not lay on in sufficient quantities. There may be some places where DOGE is doing good, like hiring Joe Gebbia, who is a co-founder of Airbnb, to streamline the retirement process for federal workers. Unfortunately, exeffles of retirement process for federal workers. Unfortunately,
批評者則反駁稱，政府與馬斯克改造過的企業截然不同。企業破產會有新公司取而代之，而政府理論上承擔私營企業無法或不願足量提供的關鍵服務。雖然DOGE在某些領域確實有建樹（例如聘請愛彼迎聯合創始人喬·吉比亞優化聯邦員工退休流程），但可惜的是，其導致政府效能降低的案例更為普遍。
The insp？ appointed by Mr Trump to run the postal service. Employees of some agencies singled out by DOGE still have to send a weekly email listing five things they did last week. But the inbox is full and they bounce back.
負責監督浪費與詐欺的監察長遭解僱，負責審批藥物醫療用途的機構FDA的員工被裁，創新處理程序因此受阻。大量秉持原則的官員被迫辭職，包括川普任命的郵政總局局長路易斯·德喬伊。部分被DOGE盯上的機構員工，仍需每周傳送郵件列出上周完成的五件事，但郵件系統早已不堪重負，發出的郵件又被系統退回。
DOGE's scope to save money is smaller than advertised. It is targeting discretionary spending (the part of the budget not on autopilot) and defence is excluded, for now. That means Mr Musface's attack 5% the much 7% yk's att 15% is thes . government spending is redistribution, there are no huge efficiencies to be had there. If he were cutting administrative costs wisely, that would be welcome. But too many of DOGE's planned to 片 welced out prot 完成, misitys plann. that was actually worth only $8m. Nor has it identified lots of burdensome regulation to cut, as was the hope of Vivek Ramaswamy, briefly DOGE's co-head.
DOGE的節支空間遠小於宣傳。該機構目前僅針對可自由支配開支（非自動執行的預算部分），國防開支暫未納入。這意味著馬斯克的「改革」僅涉及15%的預算。由於其餘大部分開支屬於再分配性質，本來就不存在大幅提升效率的空間。若其明智削減行政成本，本應受到歡迎，但DOGE項目的許多削減項目實為誤判（例如取消的80億美元合約實際僅值800萬美元）。而曾短暫擔任DOGE聯合主管的維韋克·拉馬斯瓦米期望能甄別出大量待廢除的繁冗餘法規，也未能如願。
Worst is that DOGE's actions so far look as if they are designed not to make government work better, but to expand the president's power and root out wrongthink。 legislative majorities、 of staging a coup. Some of Mr Trump's backers believe that in the 2010s America was gripped by a soft authoritarianism, whose instruments of power were universities, the media and partisan bureaucrats, and breaka eh universities, the media and partisan bureaucrats, and breaka eh ici遠. doesn't have much to do with it.
最糟糕的是，DOGE的舉措似乎並非為了讓政府更有高效，而是為了擴張總統權力、清除異己思想。美國國際開發署（USAID）和教育部由國會設立，依法只有國會能撤銷。共和黨雖在立法機構佔多數，卻未嘗試通過相關法律。相反，DOGE試圖透過行政命令強行關閉這些機構，無原則地擴張行政權。面對訴訟和不利裁決，馬斯克等人攻擊法官「發動政變」。部分川普支持者認為，2010年代的美國被大學、媒體和黨派官僚的「軟專制主義」控制，如今需要以專製手段破局。但這與政府效率無關。
DOGE goes rogue
DOGE的失控之路
Even this does not mean DOGE has failed—yet. There are three possible outcomes. First, that just as rivals laughed at Tesla and SpaceX in their early days, DOGE will come 3 in time. SpaceX in their early days, DOGE will come good in time. Seconds that sikeh. that DOGE becomes snarled up in court; many good civil servants are fired or quit; fewer talented people see government as an appealing career; and America is left with a stronger president and aweaker C.
即便如此，也不能斷定DOGE已徹底失敗──至少現在還不能。未來可能有三種結局：第一，如同特斯拉和SpaceX早期被同行嘲笑，DOGE最終將證明自身價值；第二，馬斯克徹底摧毀美國政府；第三（最可能的結局）是DOGE深陷司法泥潭，優秀公務員遭解僱或主動離職，政府崗位對人才的吸引力下降，美國最終落得一個更強勢的總統和更弱勢的國會。
This would be a huge missed opportunity. Imagine the Musk of the early 2010s, the genius-builder, in charge of procurement at the Pentagon or federal infrastructure projects. Instead, America has got late-agon or federal infrastructure projects. Instead, America has got late-agon or federal infrastructure projects. Instead, America has got late-agon or federal infrastructure projects. Instead, America has got late-era Musting, sownedieedieedie em骨movements and stuck in the same mind-numbing partisan thinking as millions of less talented folk.
這將是巨大的歷史遺憾。想像一下，若讓2010年代初期的馬斯克——那位天才建設者——負責五角大樓採購或聯邦基建項目，美國或將迎來截然不同的局面。然而現實是，如今的馬斯克已被自己的社群媒體平台徹底改變，他與威權運動曖昧互動，陷入與無數平庸者相同的黨派思維泥潭。 （與CATTI同行）