【Joe’s華爾街脈動】財政擔憂與殖利率飆升引發市場全面回檔，促使投資者重新評估

美國赤字憂慮升溫及債券殖利率飆漲，已觸發全球資產類別顯著下挫，挑戰當前估值並預示市場可能持續波動。

Joe 盧, CFA　　2025年5月21日 美東時間

重點摘要

• 美國財政擔憂加劇、債券標售反應不佳以及貿易緊張局勢再起，導致公債殖利率急劇上升，引發市場避險情緒。
• 主要美股指數顯著回檔。道瓊工業平均指數展望明顯惡化，而標普500指數先前正面的評估則轉為中性，反映借貸成本上升帶來的壓力。
• 美國領先企業表現好壞參半。Alphabet Inc.因AI發展正面而展現強勢，而蘋果(Apple Inc.)和亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc.)則在整體市場疲弱中下跌；蘋果的評估顯著惡化。
• 美國企業獲利展望轉為負面，且消費者信心指標趨緩，表明在持續通膨和利率上升的背景下，對於獲利能力和經濟動能的擔憂日益加劇。
• 美國GICS各類股普遍下跌。資訊科技和金融類股的評估轉為負面，而必需消費品和公用事業等更具防禦性的領域，則在其正向展望中展現相對穩定性。
• 國際市場普遍反映美國的謹慎情緒，儘管某些亞洲市場展現韌性。日本市場波動較大，當日明顯走弱。
• 美國公債殖利率飆升，導致各天期債券價格。比特幣盤中大幅波動但最終收漲，黃金則在投資者應對動盪局勢之際溫和上揚。

市場概況

今日市場顯著回檔，突顯投資者對美國財政狀況和地緣政治貿易緊張局勢再起的擔憂，最終導致普遍的拋售。此避險行為的主要因素是美國公債殖利率急劇上升，在美國公債標售需求疲弱後攀升。此債券市場反應突顯市場對美國赤字擴大以及當前財政政策討論潛在經濟後果的擔憂日益加劇。

加劇負面情緒的是美中之間在半導體技術方面再起的貿易摩擦，以及在部分企業財報不如預期後，零售產業持續存在的憂慮。主要美股指數大幅下跌：道瓊工業平均指數重挫(-1.93%)，標普500指數(-1.69%)和那斯達克綜合指數(-1.39%)亦經歷顯著回檔。此走勢中斷了標普500指數近期的正向軌跡，因借貸成本上升的負擔沉重地壓在股票估值上。代表小型股表現的羅素2000指數跌幅最為顯著，為(-2.81%)。道瓊工業平均指數的評估較前一日的正向看法出現顯著惡化，而標普500指數先前正面的評估現已轉為中性。相較之下，那斯達克綜合指數維持其正向評估，儘管費城半導體指數(-1.79%)的展望轉為負面。此普遍性的下跌促使投資者在利率可能「更高更久」的預期下，重新評估風險曝險和投資組合部位。

美國前十大公司

在整體市場回檔之際，數家美國領先企業表現為負，包括蘋果(Apple Inc.)(-2.31%)和亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc.)(-1.45%)。特斯拉(Tesla Inc.)亦出現顯著的單日跌幅(-2.68%)。這些跌勢反映了公債殖利率上升和財政焦慮對股票估值的影響。蘋果(Apple Inc.)的評估已顯著惡化，預示持續的不利因素。亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc.)的評估亦從先前中性的立場惡化。相反地，Alphabet Inc.則以正面的單日表現(+2.79%)脫穎而出，顯然受惠於市場對其人工智慧計畫的正面反應，儘管其整體評估僅較昨日極度負面的狀況略有改善。微軟(Microsoft Corp.)(-1.22%)和Meta Platforms Inc.(-0.25%)亦下跌，但維持其強勁的正向評估。輝達(NVIDIA Corp.)(-1.92%)亦收低，維持中性評估。

這些主要企業之間分歧的表現和展望，突顯市場日益受到總體經濟壓力和公司特定因素的共同影響。儘管利率上升和財政不確定性對多數股票構成挑戰，但AI相關高成長領域被認為具領導地位的公司（如Alphabet），提供一定程度的韌性。然而，蘋果(Apple Inc.)和亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc.)等知名企業普遍面臨的壓力，突顯了即使是市場領導者也面臨困境。投資者現在必須權衡總體經濟的不利因素，是否會蓋過個別公司的優勢，或者特定的創新能否持續推動優異表現。

經濟指標

對美國潛在經濟狀況的評估顯示出謹慎的、且在某方面日益惡化的景象，這與市場上日益加劇的財政焦慮一致。關於投資存續期間的展望，依然極度負面，預示市場持續預期利率將在一段時間內內維持高檔——此觀點因近期公債殖利率飆升而得到強化。關鍵的是，企業獲利的評估已從中性轉為負面立場，表明在這些經濟不利因素和潛在關稅影響下，對未來獲利能力的擔憂日益加劇。

與此同時，通膨訊號依然為正（顯示通膨壓力上升），這可能持續影響美國聯準會的政策，並維持利率的上行壓力。更糟的是，消費者信心的評估已從正向轉弱至中性。此趨緩指向美國經濟成長的關鍵引擎——消費者活動可能減弱，並與近期零售產業財報引發的擔憂相呼應。對投資者而言，這些轉變突顯了一個不確定性升級的環境，其中獲利前景黯淡、借貸成本增加，且消費者動能可能正在減弱，因此需要更具防禦性和辨別能力的投資策略。

類股概況

今日美國GICS各類股普遍觀察到跌勢，其中資訊科技類股(-1.88%)、金融類股(-2.05%)、醫療保健類股(-2.32%)和房地產類股(-2.65%)均錄得顯著的單日負面表現。這些走勢反映了市場對殖利率上升和財政政策的普遍擔憂。資訊科技類股的評估急劇轉為負面，與昨日的正向看法形成重大轉變，與成長導向型股票面臨的壓力一致。金融類股的評估亦出現顯著惡化，從強勁正向轉為負面。房地產類股的展望顯著惡化，與其一週前的負面評估一致，可能反映其對利率波動的敏感性。

相反地，通訊服務類股(-0.75%)儘管市場狀況不佳，仍維持其強勁的正向評估，表現突出。必需消費品類股(-1.16%)和公用事業類股(-1.82%)亦守住其正向評估，儘管其單日價格動能有所趨緩。科技和金融等對經濟敏感類股的評估普遍轉為負面，加上原物料類股(-1.33%)和能源類股(-1.84%)的負面展望加深，顯示投資者對經濟成長的憂慮加劇。必需消費品和公用事業等更具防禦性類股的評估相對穩定（儘管當日價格下跌），可能暗示市場正轉向尋求感知上的安全。投資者面臨的關鍵問題是，這些避風港能否承受持續的總體經濟壓力。

國際市場

全球市場普遍反映出來自美國的謹慎情緒，數個地區經歷了單日的負面表現。歐洲股市小幅下跌(-0.52%)，日本股市下跌(-0.93%)，拉丁美洲股市則下跌(-1.42%)。這些走勢發生在美國財政擔憂和殖利率上升造成國際連鎖反應之際。日本市場的評估值得注意地，從昨日的強勁正向立場轉弱至今日的中性，儘管這相較於一週前的負面狀況仍有所改善，顯示市場情緒存在顯著波動。新興歐洲市場的評估轉為負面，與一週前的正向看法形成重大逆轉。

相較之下，數個亞洲市場在其評估中展現出較強的韌性。香港和新加坡維持其強勁的正向展望，中國亦維持其正向評估。印度市場的評估從中性改善至正向。歐盟和加拿大亦持續展現強勁的正向評估。對投資者而言，主要的影響是各地區反應的差異。儘管以美國為中心的擔憂正發揮全球影響力，但地方因素和可能不同的經濟展望正導致不同程度的韌性。日本市場評估的轉弱，以及日本公債殖利率的上升，值得特別關注，因為若國內狀況促使日本投資者調整其國際配置，則可能預示全球資本流動的更廣泛轉變。

其他資產

「其他資產」今日好壞參半，主要受美國公債殖利率飆升和財政焦慮影響，反映出市場的避險情緒。1-3年期美國公債(-0.06%)、7-10年期美國公債(-0.69%)以及20年以上美國公債(-1.71%)的價格均因殖利率普遍上升，而出現負面表現，反映出債券市場的動盪。長期債券的展望依然明確為負。原油亦下跌(-1.56%)；其價格表現暗示需求前景謹慎，且其整體評估仍為負面。

比特幣在早盤飆升後，最終收盤漲幅(+1.44%)，但顯示出易受整體市場下跌拖累的特性，即使其近期評估仍為正向。通常被視為避險資產的黃金，則微幅上漲(+0.74%)，維持其正向評估。農產品亦小幅走高(+0.11%)，持續其正向評估。顯著的發展是債券市場對財政擔憂的明確反應，表現在殖利率曲線全面上揚。儘管比特幣最初展現強勢，但其隨後與股市一同回檔，表明其尚未扮演可靠的反週期資產角色。然而，黃金的溫和上漲和正向評估，可能表明在日益增長的不確定性中，部分投資者正在尋求傳統的避風港，此趨勢值得監控。

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Fiscal Concerns and Yield Surge Drive Broad Market Retreat, Prompting Investor Reassessment

Rising U.S. deficit anxieties and surging bond yields have triggered a significant downturn across global asset classes, challenging current valuations and signaling the potential for sustained market volatility.

By Joe 盧, CFA As of May 21, 2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Heightened U.S. fiscal concerns, a difficult bond auction, and renewed trade tensions have driven a sharp rise in Treasury yields, leading to a broad risk-off market sentiment.
• Major U.S. equity benchmarks retreated significantly. The outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average deteriorated markedly, while the S&P 500's previously positive assessment shifted to neutral, reflecting pressure from increasing borrowing costs.
• Performance among leading U.S. companies was mixed. Alphabet Inc. showed strength, attributed to positive AI developments, while Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. declined amid broader market weakness; Apple's assessment notably worsened.
• The outlook for U.S. corporate earnings has turned negative, and indications of consumer strength have moderated, suggesting growing profitability and economic momentum concerns against a backdrop of persistent inflation and higher rates.
• U.S. GICS sectors largely declined. The assessment for Information Technology and Financials shifted to negative, while more defensive areas like Consumer Staples and Utilities showed relative stability in their positive outlooks.
• International markets generally mirrored U.S. caution, although certain Asian markets demonstrated resilience. Japan's market assessment displayed volatility, weakening notably on the day.
• Surging U.S. Treasury yields pushed bond prices lower across maturities. Bitcoin saw significant intraday fluctuation but finished with a daily gain, while Gold posted a modest advance as investors navigated the turbulent conditions.

MARKET OVERVIEW

A significant market pullback today underscores investor unease surrounding the U.S. fiscal situation and renewed geopolitical trade tensions, culminating in a broad-based sell-off. The principal driver of this risk-averse behavior is a sharp increase in U.S. Treasury yields, which climbed following a U.S. Treasury auction that was met with weak demand. This bond market reaction highlights escalating concerns over the expanding U.S. deficit and the potential economic ramifications of current fiscal policy discussions.

Compounding the negative sentiment are renewed U.S.-China trade frictions, particularly concerning semiconductor technology, and ongoing apprehension in the retail sector following some underwhelming earnings reports. Major U.S. equity indices recorded substantial declines: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply (-1.93%), with both the S&P 500 (-1.69%) and Nasdaq Composite (-1.39%) experiencing significant pullbacks. This movement interrupted the S&P 500's recent positive trajectory, as the burden of rising borrowing costs weighed heavily on equity valuations. The Russell 2000 Index, indicative of smaller company performance, saw the most pronounced decline at (-2.81%). The assessment for the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed considerable deterioration from a positive view just a day ago, and the S&P 500's prior positive assessment has now shifted to neutral. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite maintained its positive assessment, though the PHLX Semiconductor Index (-1.79%) saw its outlook turn negative. This widespread downturn pressures investors to re-evaluate risk exposures and portfolio positioning in light of potentially higher-for-longer interest rates.

TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES

Amidst the broader market retreat, several leading U.S. companies experienced negative performance, including Apple Inc. (-2.31%) and Amazon.com Inc. (-1.45%). Tesla Inc. also recorded a notable daily loss (-2.68%). These declines reflect the impact of rising Treasury yields and fiscal anxieties on equity valuations. The assessment for Apple Inc. has notably worsened, signaling persistent headwinds. Amazon.com Inc.'s assessment also deteriorated from its prior neutral stance. Conversely, Alphabet Inc. distinguished itself with a positive daily performance (+2.79%), apparently benefiting from favorable market reactions to its artificial intelligence initiatives, although its overall assessment only improved slightly from a strongly negative position yesterday. Microsoft Corp. (-1.22%) and Meta Platforms Inc. (-0.25%) also declined but maintained their strong positive assessments. NVIDIA Corp. (-1.92%) was also lower, holding a neutral assessment.

The divergent performances and outlooks among these major companies underscore a market increasingly shaped by both macroeconomic pressures and company-specific factors. While rising rates and fiscal uncertainties challenge most equities, perceived leadership in high-growth areas such as AI, evidenced by Alphabet, can offer a degree of resilience. However, the broad pressure on prominent names like Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. highlights the difficulties faced even by market leaders. Investors must now weigh whether macroeconomic headwinds will overshadow individual company strengths or if specific innovations can continue to fuel outperformance.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The evaluation of underlying U.S. economic conditions reveals a cautious, and in some aspects, deteriorating picture, consistent with the heightened fiscal anxieties permeating the market. The outlook concerning the appropriate duration for investments remains deeply negative, signaling persistent expectations of higher interest rates for an extended period—a view reinforced by the recent surge in Treasury yields. Crucially, the assessment for corporate earnings has shifted from neutral to a negative stance, suggesting growing concerns about future profitability in the face of these economic headwinds and potential tariff implications.

Concurrently, the signal for inflation remains positive (indicating rising inflationary pressures), which could continue to shape Federal Reserve policy and maintain upward pressure on interest rates. Compounding this, the assessment of consumer strength has weakened from positive to neutral. This moderation points to a potential deceleration in consumer activity, a critical engine of U.S. economic growth, and echoes concerns from recent retail sector earnings. For investors, these shifts highlight an environment of escalating uncertainty where the profit outlook is dimming, borrowing costs are increasing, and consumer momentum may be waning, necessitating a more defensive and discerning investment strategy.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

Widespread declines were observed across U.S. GICS sectors today, with Information Technology (-1.88%), Financials (-2.05%), Healthcare (-2.32%), and Real Estate (-2.65%) all posting notable negative daily performances. These movements reflect broader market concerns over rising yields and fiscal policy. The assessment for Information Technology turned sharply negative, a significant change from yesterday's positive view, mirroring the pressure on growth-oriented stocks. Financials also experienced a considerable deterioration in their assessment, moving from strongly positive to negative. The outlook for Real Estate worsened significantly, consistent with its negative assessment from a week ago, likely reflecting its sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations.

Conversely, Communication Services (-0.75%) stood out by maintaining its strong positive assessment despite the market conditions. Consumer Staples (-1.16%) and Utilities (-1.82%) also held onto their positive assessments, though their daily price momentum eased. The broad negative shift in assessments for economically sensitive sectors like Technology and Financials, coupled with the deepening negative outlooks for Materials (-1.33%) and Energy (-1.84%), indicates increasing investor apprehension about economic growth. The relative stability in the assessments for more defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples and Utilities, notwithstanding daily price declines, might suggest a move towards perceived safety. The key question for investors is whether these havens can withstand sustained macroeconomic pressure.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

Global markets generally reflected the cautious sentiment stemming from the U.S., with several regions experiencing negative daily performance. Europe saw a modest decline (-0.52%), while Japan fell (-0.93%), and Latin America dropped (-1.42%). These movements occur as U.S. fiscal concerns and rising yields create international repercussions. The assessment for Japan notably weakened from a strong positive stance yesterday to neutral today, although this represents an improvement from its negative position a week ago, indicating significant volatility in market sentiment. The assessment for Emerging Europe turned negative, a substantial reversal from its positive view a week prior.

In contrast, several Asian markets demonstrated greater resilience in their assessments. Hong Kong and Singapore maintained their strong positive outlooks, and China held its positive assessment. India’s market assessment improved from neutral to positive. The European Union and Canada also continued to exhibit strong positive assessments. The primary implication for investors is the divergence in regional reactions. While U.S.-centric concerns are exerting global influence, local factors and potentially differing economic outlooks are leading to varied degrees of resilience. The weakening assessment in Japan, alongside rising Japanese government bond yields, warrants particular attention as it could signal broader shifts in global capital flows if domestic conditions prompt Japanese investors to adjust their international allocations.

OTHER ASSETS

The "Other Assets" category revealed a mixed but telling picture of today's risk-off environment, largely shaped by surging U.S. Treasury yields and fiscal anxieties. Reflecting the turmoil in the bond market, 1-3 Year Treasury Bonds (-0.06%), 7-10 Year Treasury Bonds (-0.69%), and 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (-1.71%) all experienced negative price performance as yields broadly increased. The outlook for longer-duration bonds remains decidedly negative. Crude Oil also declined (-1.56%); its price performance suggests a cautious demand outlook, and its overall assessment remains negative.

Bitcoin, after an earlier surge, ultimately posted a daily gain (+1.44%) but demonstrated susceptibility to broader market downdrafts, even as its near-term assessment remains positive. Gold, often considered a safe-haven asset, managed a slight gain (+0.74%), maintaining its positive assessment. Agricultural Commodities also edged higher (+0.11%), continuing their positive assessment. The significant development is the bond market's unambiguous reaction to fiscal concerns, evidenced by rising yields across the curve. While Bitcoin showed initial strength, its subsequent pullback alongside equities suggests it is not yet acting as a reliable counter-cyclical asset. Gold's modest gain and positive assessment, however, may indicate some investors are seeking traditional havens amidst the growing uncertainty, a trend worth monitoring.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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