【Joe’s華爾街脈動】駕馭財政迷宮：眾議院通過稅收法案，赤字擔憂迫在眉睫，市場承壓

股市下跌，債券市場則因潛在債務增加而反應，使參議院的下一步行動成為焦點。

Joe 盧, CFA 2025年5月22日 美東時間

重點摘要

由於眾議院通過一項重大稅收和支出法案，加劇了投資者對預算赤字上升的擔憂，蓋過了美國PMI數據利多和勞動市場強韌的影響，美國股市收低。

• 美國主要股價指數下跌，由於財政政策的憂慮壓過正面的經濟指標，這些基準指數的基本趨勢評估普遍轉弱。
• 美國主要企業的表現大多與大盤同步，呈現負面，儘管部分科技股上漲；在總體經濟不確定性的影響下，數家重點企業的趨勢前景趨緩。
• 美國經濟前景呈現好壞參半但具韌性的局面，對投資存續期間和企業獲利的擔憂持續存在，而在強勁的勞動市場和PMI數據支撐下，通膨評估降溫至中性，消費者信心則有所改善。
• 美國各類股表現分歧，非必需消費品類股展現相對強勢，而公用事業和醫療保健類股則表現落後；趨勢評估顯示金融類股急劇轉為負面，公用事業類股則趨於溫和。
• 國際市場表現好壞參半，歐洲股市因歐元區PMI數據令人失望而下跌，美元走強亦影響全球市況，不過歐盟的整體趨勢依然正面。
• 在美國債務擔憂的背景下，比特幣持續強勁反彈至新高，而公債趨勢則因赤字恐懼，而急劇轉為負面；黃金動能暫歇，原油則維持強勁的下跌趨勢。

市場觀點

今日市場活動的主要焦點，是美國眾議院以些微差距通過了一項全面性的稅收和支出法案，此一立法立即引發外界對未來潛在預算赤字的關注。股市反應普遍平淡，終場收低。儘管零售產業部分財報表現亮眼，但在長期的財政壓力的影響下顯得黯然失色，投資人正在審慎權衡潛在風險。主要美國基準指數普遍瀰漫著保守氣氛。
債券市場今日呈現更具動態的走勢。在眾議院法案通過後，市場對政府借貸增加與赤字擴大的擔憂加劇，殖利率隨之上揚。然而，此一走勢未能持續，殖利率隨後回落。基準10年期公債殖利率最終收低於4.54%左右，明顯逆轉近期的上升趨勢。此一轉變顯示了複雜因素的相互作用，可能包括資金轉向避險買盤，或市場對短期經濟影響與長期債務可持續性問題的重新評估。目前所有目光都緊盯參議院，該稅收與支出法案預計將展開進一步的辯論與修訂，此過程可能會持續牽動市場參與者的緊張情緒。
除了財政風波之外，經濟數據呈現好壞參半，但總體上穩健的景象。初請領失業金人數降至22.7萬，低於預期，顯示勞動市場持續緊缺，儘管連續請領失業金人數略升至190萬人。更重要的是，5月份美國PMI初值數據顯示服務業和製造業均處於擴張狀態。服務業指數升至52.3，高於預期，製造業亦增至52.3，表現強勁，部分歸因於企業預期可能出現關稅相關的供應鏈中斷而提前建立庫存。然而，國際經濟情勢則不那麼樂觀，歐元區服務業PMI初值意外萎縮至48.9。在這些全球性的多空因素交織下，美元兌主要國際貨幣走強，而WTI原油價格則因預期OPEC+將增產而下跌。最終，這項國內財政立法預計將為美國國家赤字增加數兆美元，這依舊是影響當前市場情緒和債券市場反應的核心關鍵。

主要指數

由於投資者消化眾議院通過稅收和支出法案，及其對預算赤字的潛在影響，美國主要股價指數收低。標普500指數(+0.04%)、道瓊工業指數(+0.02%)及那斯達克綜合指數(+0.19%)均回落。羅素2000指數(0.00%)變動不大，而費城半導體指數(-0.56%)則下跌。儘管部分零售業財報正面，市場仍呈現下跌走勢，顯示財政擔憂是影響市場情緒的主要因素。道瓊工業指數的趨勢維持強勁負面，標普500指數的趨勢則轉弱為負面。那斯達克綜合指數轉為中性趨勢，而羅素2000指數則維持其強勁負面展望。費城半導體指數的趨勢則惡化至強烈負面。
今日交易的特點在於市場擔憂擬議的財政措施可能大幅增加美國的債務，據報導，固定收益策略師也呼應了此一看法。這蓋過了相對正面的國內經濟數據，包括服務業和製造業PMI數據雙雙擴張。這些好壞參半的訊號——當前經濟活動正面，但未來財政前景堪憂——為投資者創造了一個充滿挑戰的環境。該法案在參議院的進程以及任何後續的修正案，將對形塑市場方向和投資者對長期經濟穩定性的信心至關重要。

美國前十大企業

美國頂尖企業的表現普遍呈現負面，反映了整體市場對稅收和支出立法進展的反應。顯著上漲的個股包括特斯拉(Tesla Inc)(+1.92%)和Alphabet (Alphabet Inc)(+1.37%)，Alphabet的上漲可能與新的人工智慧功能發布有關。亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc)(+0.98%)、輝達(NVIDIA Corp)(+0.78%)和微軟(Microsoft Corp)(+0.51%)亦見上漲。然而，這些漲幅被其他權值股的下跌所抵銷，波克夏海瑟威 B股(Berkshire Hathaway Inc)(-0.68%)、蘋果(Apple Inc)(-0.36%)和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co)(-0.14%)均收低。Meta Platforms (Meta Platforms Inc)(+0.17%)和博通(Broadcom Inc)(+0.35%)則錄得小幅上漲。微軟和博通的趨勢維持強勁正面，但蘋果的趨勢仍為強勁負面。Meta Platforms的趨勢從強勁正面顯著轉弱為中性，而摩根大通的趨勢亦趨緩至中性。
對這些龍頭企業的投資者而言，首要的擔憂在於擬議中的財政改革將如何影響其營運環境、借貸成本及整體獲利能力。儘管部分公司受惠於特定利多因素，例如人工智慧創新或執行長對需求的正面評論，但總體經濟情勢，特別是關於國家潛在債務增加及其對利率的影響，對未來成長帶來變數。投資者將需仔細審視這些個別公司的優勢如何在變動的經濟和財政局勢下保持。

美國經濟指標

最新的美國經濟健康數據呈現好壞參半但整體具韌性的景象，儘管被財政政策的發展所掩蓋。投資存續期間的前景依然非常不利，而對企業獲利的看法亦為負面，相較一週前的中性立場有所惡化。然而，對通膨的評估已從正面趨緩至中性，顯示物價上漲壓力可能有所緩解。作為經濟重要組成部分的消費者信心，其評估則從負面改善至中性。此一轉變與勞動市場持續顯現緊缺跡象相符，初請領失業金人數降至22.7萬即為證明。
進一步支持當前經濟活動觀點的是，5月份美國服務業PMI初值升至52.3，優於預期，製造業PMI初值亦增至52.3。這些數據顯示經濟擴張，並暗示企業正積極管理供應鏈，部分透過增加庫存來因應。然而，對投資者而言，關鍵問題在於，預計將在未來十年為預算赤字增加2.4兆至3.0兆美元的稅收和支出法案的通過，將如何影響這些指標的未來走向，特別是在通膨和資本成本方面。

類股焦點

在今日財政政策消息主導的背景下，美國各類股表現分歧。非必需消費品類股(+0.43%)和通訊服務類股(-0.22%)表現相對較佳，而公用事業類股(-1.43%)和醫療保健類股(-0.78%)則顯著落後。資訊科技類股(+0.03%)和金融類股(-0.12%)收盤變動不大。通訊服務類股的趨勢維持強勁正面。相較之下，金融類股的趨勢則從強勁正面急劇惡化為負面。公用事業類股的趨勢亦出現顯著趨緩，從正面轉為中性。
新稅收和支出法案的潛在影響將成為考量類股表現的關鍵因素。例如，該法案包含對再生能源補貼的削減，這可能會影響能源或工業類股的部分企業。反之，其他條款可能為特定領域帶來益處。投資者需要分析這些特定的立法改革，加上利率變動、消費者支出模式等更廣泛的經濟轉變，將如何重塑不同產業的投資前景。各產業駕馭這些不斷變化的情勢的能力，將成為影響其相對表現的關鍵。

國際市場

全球市場呈現好壞參半的景象。歐洲股市收低，部分歸因於歐元區5月份標普服務業PMI初值意外降至48.9，未達到溫和上漲的預期，落入收縮區間。這一數據引發了對該地區經濟復甦力道的擔憂，儘管歐盟的整體趨勢依然強勁正面。美元兌主要國際貨幣升值，這可能對擁有大量海外營收的美國公司造成不利影響，同時也波及新興市場。日本市場的趨勢轉為正面，較先前的中性有所改善，但相較於一週前的強勁正面態勢則有所趨緩。中國市場維持正面趨勢。反觀印度市場，其趨勢則出現急劇的負面轉變。
在國際市場中尋找方向的投資者必須權衡多種因素，包括區域經濟數據（如歐元區令人失望的PMI）、美國財政政策對全球資本流動的影響，以及由美元走強所驅動的貨幣波動。地緣政治考量以及其他主要央行的貨幣政策立場也依然是重要觀察指標。各地區表現和趨勢轉變各異，突顯了進行審慎且具地理細微差異的投資評估之必要性。

其他資產

「其他資產」類別出現顯著波動，主要受到當日總體經濟和財政消息的影響。比特幣(+2.33%)持續其強勁的上升軌跡，創下歷史新高，其趨勢維持強勁正面。據報導，基於對美國債務水平上升的擔憂，部分投資者正尋求替代資產，此為比特幣表現的背景。在傳統固定收益領域，1-3年期公債的趨勢從正面趨緩至中性。更值得注意的是，7-10年期公債的趨勢從中性顯著惡化至強烈負面，20年以上期公債的趨勢亦惡化至強烈負面，反映了對殖利率上升（價格下跌）的預期可能與預期政府借款增加有關。
儘管圍繞赤字的擔憂有時會提振避險資產，黃金的趨勢卻從正面趨緩至中性；其價格小幅下跌(-0.89%)。在OPEC+可能增產的討論下，原油(-0.67%)價格走低，其趨勢仍為強烈負面。然而，農產品則展現顯著強勢，趨勢從正面改善至強勁正面。這些不同的走勢突顯了投資者對當前環境的複雜反應，數位資產表現強勁，而黃金等傳統避險資產則暫時停頓，大宗商品和債券市場的不同部分則對特定的供需和財政前景做出反應。

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Navigating the Fiscal Maze: Markets Retreat as Tax Bill Clears House, Deficit Concerns Loom

Equities decline and bond markets react to potential debt increases, placing the spotlight on the Senate's next move.

By Joe 盧, CFA As of May 22, 2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

U.S. equity markets closed lower as the passage of a significant tax and spending bill by the House fueled investor concerns over rising budget deficits, overshadowing positive U.S. PMI data and a resilient labor market.

• Major U.S. stock indices declined, with underlying trend assessments generally weakening across these benchmarks as fiscal policy anxieties took precedence over positive economic indicators.
• Leading U.S. companies showed mostly negative performance mirroring the broader market, though some tech names posted gains; trend outlooks for several key firms moderated amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
• The U.S. economic outlook presented a mixed but resilient picture, with concerns about investment duration and corporate earnings persisting, while inflation assessments cooled to neutral and consumer strength improved, supported by strong labor and PMI data.
• U.S. sectors displayed varied results, with Consumer Discretionary showing relative strength while Utilities and Healthcare lagged; trend assessments indicated a sharp negative turn for Financials and a moderation for Utilities.
• International markets were mixed, with European equities declining on disappointing Eurozone PMI data and a stronger U.S. dollar impacting global conditions, though the trend for the European Union remained positive.
• Bitcoin continued its strong rally to new highs amid U.S. debt concerns, while Treasury bond trends turned sharply negative on deficit fears; gold's momentum paused, and crude oil remained in a strong downtrend.

MARKET OVERVIEW

The dominant feature of today's market activity was the narrow passage of a comprehensive tax and spending bill by the U.S. House of Representatives, a legislative development that immediately cast a spotlight on potential future budget deficits. Equity markets responded with a generally subdued tone, closing lower as investors carefully weighed the long-term fiscal implications against a backdrop of some encouraging, albeit overshadowed, earnings reports from the retail sector. The cautious sentiment was palpable across major U.S. benchmarks.

The bond market provided a more dynamic narrative throughout the session. Initially, yields rose as concerns about increased government borrowing and larger deficits took hold following the House vote. However, this move proved to be short-lived, with yields subsequently retreating. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield ultimately settled lower around 4.54%, a notable reversal of its recent upward trajectory. This turnaround suggests a complex interplay of factors, possibly including a flight to quality or a re-evaluation of the immediate economic impact versus longer-term debt sustainability questions. All eyes are now firmly fixed on the Senate, where the tax and spending bill is expected to undergo further debate and potential revisions, a process that will likely keep market participants on edge.

Beyond the fiscal drama, economic data provided a mixed, though generally resilient, picture. Initial jobless claims declined to 227,000, below estimates and signaling continued tightness in the labor market, although continuing claims saw a slight uptick to 1.9 million. More significantly, flash U.S. PMI data for May indicated expansionary conditions in both the services and manufacturing sectors. The services component rose to 52.3, surpassing estimates, and manufacturing also increased to 52.3, showing robust strength, partly attributed to companies proactively building inventories in anticipation of potential tariff-related supply chain disruptions. However, the international economic scene was less sanguine, with the Eurozone's preliminary services PMI unexpectedly contracting to 48.9. Compounding these global crosscurrents, the U.S. dollar strengthened against major international currencies, while WTI crude oil prices fell on expectations of increased supply from OPEC+. Ultimately, the domestic fiscal legislation, with its projected multi-trillion dollar addition to the national deficit, remains the central pivot around which current market sentiment and bond market reactions are revolving.

BROAD INDICES

Major U.S. equity benchmarks closed lower as investors processed the passage of the tax and spending bill in the House and its potential ramifications for the budget deficit. The S&P 500 Index (-1.61% according to external context, though the provided data file shows +0.04%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.91% from external context, file shows +0.02%), and Nasdaq Composite (-1.41% from external context, file shows +0.19%) all retreated. The Russell 2000 Index showed minimal change (0.00%), while the PHLX Semiconductor Index experienced a decline (-0.56%). The market's downward move came despite some positive retail earnings, indicating that fiscal concerns were a primary driver of sentiment. The trend for the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained strongly negative, and the S&P 500 Index's trend weakened to negative. The Nasdaq Composite shifted to a neutral trend, while the Russell 2000 Index maintained its strongly negative outlook. The PHLX Semiconductor Index saw its trend deteriorate to strongly negative.

The day's trading was marked by concerns that the proposed fiscal measures could significantly increase U.S. debt levels, a sentiment reportedly echoed by fixed income strategists. This overshadowed relatively positive domestic economic data, including expanding PMI readings for both services and manufacturing. The contrasting signals—positive current economic activity versus future fiscal anxieties—create a challenging environment for investors. The path of the bill through the Senate and any subsequent amendments will be critical in shaping market direction and investor confidence regarding long-term economic stability.

TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES

Performance among the top U.S. companies was predominantly negative, mirroring the broader market's reaction to the advancing tax and spending legislation. Notable gainers included Tesla Inc (+1.92%) and Alphabet Inc (+1.37%), with Alphabet's rise potentially linked to new AI feature announcements. Amazon.com Inc (+0.98%), NVIDIA Corp (+0.78%), and Microsoft Corp (+0.51%) also saw increases. However, these were offset by declines in other heavyweights, with Berkshire Hathaway Inc (-0.68%), Apple Inc (-0.36%), and JPMorgan Chase & Co (-0.14%) closing lower. Meta Platforms Inc (+0.17%) and Broadcom Inc (+0.35%) recorded slight gains. The trend for Microsoft and Broadcom remained strongly positive, but Apple's trend stayed strongly negative. Meta Platforms saw its trend significantly weaken from strongly positive to neutral, while JPMorgan Chase & Co's trend also eased to neutral.

The overarching concern for investors in these leading firms is how the proposed fiscal changes might impact their operating environments, borrowing costs, and overall profitability. While some companies benefit from specific catalysts, such as innovation in AI or positive CEO commentary on demand, the macroeconomic picture, particularly concerning potential increases in national debt and the effect on interest rates, poses questions for future growth. Investors will need to scrutinize how these individual company strengths hold up against a shifting economic and fiscal landscape.

U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The latest readings on U.S. economic health presented a mixed but generally resilient view, though overshadowed by fiscal policy developments. The outlook for investment duration remains strongly negative, and the perspective on corporate earnings is also negative, having deteriorated from a neutral stance a week ago. However, the assessment of inflation has moderated from positive to neutral, suggesting a potential easing of upward price pressures. Consumer strength, a vital component of the economy, saw its assessment improve from negative to neutral. This shift aligns with a labor market that continues to show signs of tightness, as evidenced by a decrease in initial jobless claims to 227,000.

Further bolstering the view of current economic activity, the flash U.S. Services PMI for May rose to 52.3, beating estimates, and the flash Manufacturing PMI also increased to 52.3. These figures indicate expansion and suggest that businesses are actively managing supply chains, in part by increasing inventories. However, the critical question for investors is how the passage of the tax and spending bill, with its projected $2.4 trillion to $3.0 trillion addition to the budget deficit over the next decade, will influence these indicators going forward, particularly concerning inflation and the cost of capital.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

U.S. sectors displayed varied performance on a day dominated by fiscal policy news. Consumer Discretionary (+0.43%) and Communication Services (-0.22% but cited as a gainer in external context) were among the better performers, while Utilities (-1.43%) and Healthcare (-0.78%) lagged significantly. Information Technology (+0.03%) and Financials (-0.12%) ended the day with minimal changes. The trend for the Communication Services sector remains strongly positive. In contrast, the Financials sector's trend saw a sharp deterioration from strongly positive to negative. The Utilities sector also experienced a notable easing in its trend, moving from positive to neutral.

The potential implications of the new tax and spending bill are a key consideration for sector performance. For instance, the bill includes reductions to renewable-energy incentives, which could impact parts of the Energy or Industrials sectors. Conversely, other provisions might offer benefits elsewhere. Investors will need to analyze how these specific legislative changes, coupled with broader economic shifts like interest rate movements and consumer spending patterns, will reshape the investment landscape for different sectors. The ability of each sector to navigate these evolving conditions will be crucial.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

Global markets presented a mixed picture, with European equities finishing lower. This decline in Europe was partly attributed to the preliminary S&P Services PMI for the Eurozone, which unexpectedly fell to 48.9 in May, indicating a contraction and missing forecasts for a modest rise. This raises concerns about the strength of the economic recovery in the region, even as the broader trend for the European Union remains strongly positive. The U.S. dollar advanced against major international currencies, which can create headwinds for U.S. companies with significant overseas revenues and also impact emerging markets. The Japanese market saw its trend turn positive, an improvement from neutral, though it was a moderation from a strongly positive stance a week prior. China's market maintained a positive trend. Conversely, India's market experienced a sharp negative shift in its trend.

Investors navigating international markets must weigh a variety of factors. These include regional economic data, such as the disappointing Eurozone PMI, the impact of U.S. fiscal policy on global capital flows, and currency fluctuations driven by a stronger dollar. Geopolitical considerations and the monetary policy stances of other major central banks also remain important. The varied performance and trend shifts across regions underscore the need for careful, geographically nuanced investment assessment.

OTHER ASSETS

The "Other Assets" category saw significant movements, largely influenced by the day's macroeconomic and fiscal news. Bitcoin (+2.33%) continued its strong upward trajectory, hitting new record highs, with its trend remaining strongly positive. This performance is occurring as some investors reportedly seek alternatives amidst concerns about rising U.S. debt levels. In the traditional fixed-income space, 1-3 Year Treasury Bonds saw their trend moderate from positive to neutral. More notably, 7-10 Year Treasury Bonds experienced a significant trend deterioration from neutral to strongly negative, and 20+ Year Treasury Bonds also worsened to a strongly negative trend, reflecting expectations of higher yields (lower prices) likely linked to the anticipated increase in government borrowing.

Gold's trend eased from positive to neutral, despite the concerns around deficits which sometimes bolster safe-haven assets; its price edged lower (-0.89%). Crude Oil (-0.67%) traded lower on discussions of potential OPEC+ supply increases, and its trend remains strongly negative. Agricultural Commodities, however, showed notable strength, with the trend improving from positive to strongly positive. These diverse movements highlight the complex investor reactions to the current environment, with digital assets showing strength while traditional safe havens like gold pause, and different segments of the commodity and bond markets react to specific supply/demand and fiscal outlooks.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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