【Joe’s華爾街脈動】關稅暫緩引發市場全面反彈，但潛在趨勢仍需謹慎看待

股市因歐盟關稅延後而大漲，帶動成長型類股上揚、債券殖利率下滑；惟貿易談判與資產走勢分歧下，漲勢能否持續仍存變數

Joe 盧, CFA 2025年5月27日 美東時間

重點摘要

• 由於歐盟關稅延後至7月9日的消息，顯著提振市場情緒，美國股市大漲，尤其有利於成長導向型類股。
• 標普500指數和那斯達克綜合指數等主要市場指數錄得顯著漲幅，趨勢轉為正向，儘管小型股和半導體股雖有單日上漲，但仍預示潛在謹慎。
• 包括微軟、Meta和摩根大通在內的美國領先企業，展現強勁的正向趨勢復甦，而蘋果持續的負面展望則突顯公司特定的關稅風險。
• 經濟數據呈現好壞參半的景象，企業獲利評估有所改善，但通膨展望惡化，值得投資者關注。
• 通訊服務、非必需消費品和工業類股領漲，趨勢轉為正向，而醫療保健和能源等防禦型類股儘管市場上揚，仍表現疲弱。
• 受惠於貿易緊張局勢緩解，歐洲和日本等已開發國際市場持續走強，儘管中國和印度則呈現較為謹慎的佈局。
• 比特幣維持其強勁的正向趨勢，黃金則因立即風險觀感趨緩而下跌；公債殖利率下滑，反映市場對關稅延後及其他固定收益動態的反應。

市場概況

受惠於週末歐盟對進口商品加徵50%關稅的措施延後至7月9日的消息，美國股市開盤走高。此消息提振市場樂觀情緒，尤其帶動科技和非必需消費品等成長型類股上揚。歐洲市場亦因貿易消息和德國消費者信心好轉而同步上漲，亞洲市場則普遍收紅。美國國內方面，四月份耐久財訂單下滑6.3%，優於市場擔憂的8.1%跌幅。排除運輸項目後，訂單月增0.2%，優於預期。數據穩健，加上關稅延後，營造了風險偏好回升的氛圍。債券殖利率趨緩，10年期美國公債殖利率降至4.48%，進一步支撐股市表現。

川普總統將此次關稅延期與歐盟的建設性談判掛鉤，為市場提供了喘息空間，協助收復上週五的失土。儘管貿易不確定性的高峰可能已過，但隨著新的時限和其他貿易談判臨近，市場波動可能持續。第一季財報季樂觀收尾（標普500指數每股盈餘成長有望達到13.4%），市場焦點逐漸轉向輝達(NVIDIA)即將公布的財報，以獲取對科技和AI需求的洞見。

主要市場指數

主要美股指數上揚，標普500指數(+2.08%)和那斯達克綜合指數(+2.35%)因市場樂見歐盟關稅延後而上漲。道瓊工業平均指數(+1.81%)亦上漲。標普500指數和那斯達克指數的趨勢評估均改善至正向。儘管羅素2000指數(+2.54%)和費城半導體指數(+3.32%)亦上漲，但其潛在趨勢仍負面，僅略有緩和，仍宜維持謹慎態度，尤其是在小型股和半導體領域。

此波由關稅驅動的反彈是一個正面的短期訊號，但潛在趨勢的分歧值得關注。儘管大型股和科技股的領漲令人鼓舞，但其他市場類股持續的疲弱，引發了對此波反彈廣度和持久性的疑問。投資者將關注此樂觀情緒能否構築成更持續、更廣泛的正向動能。

美國前十大公司

受惠於正面的關稅消息，美國領先企業大多上漲。特斯拉(Tesla Inc.)(+6.94%)、輝達(NVIDIA Corp)(+3.21%)和博通(Broadcom Inc)(+3.03%)表現強勁。微軟(Microsoft Corp)(+2.33%)、亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc)(+2.50%)、Meta Platforms Inc(+2.43%)和Alphabet Inc(+2.63%)亦上揚。微軟(Microsoft)、Meta和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co)(+1.76%)的趨勢評估顯著改善至強勁正向。輝達(NVIDIA)的趨勢改善至中性。蘋果(Apple Inc)(+2.53%)儘管其因iPhone關稅威脅而持續呈現強勁負面趨勢，仍錄得上漲。

改善的市場情緒顯然有利於這些具影響力的股票。博通(Broadcom)趨勢的增強對科技股而言是正面訊息。然而，蘋果(Apple)的狀況突顯公司特定問題依然存在。所有目光都集中在輝達(NVIDIA)即將公布的財報，期待從中掌握對AI需求的洞見，這是影響整體科技股情緒的關鍵因素。問題在於，市場的樂觀情緒能否克服部分巨擘面臨的特定不利因素。

美國經濟指標

美國經濟前景呈現好壞參半的訊號。企業獲利評估從負面改善至中性，可能反映了第一季財報的強勁表現。這暗示對短期內獲利前景的擔憂有所減少。相反地，通膨展望則從中性顯著惡化至負面，與一週前的正向立場形成重大轉變，表明通縮的壓力正在上升。

儘管近期經濟數據具韌性且貿易緊張局勢緩解，通膨前景的轉弱仍是一大觀察重點。企業獲利評估改善固然受到市場歡迎，但投資存續期間的強勁負面趨勢以及中性的消費者信心，暗示潛在的謹慎情緒。投資者應權衡當前的市場樂觀情緒是否已充分反映這些潛在分歧的經濟訊號。

類股概況

受歐盟關稅延後的利多推動，類股表現普遍正面，資訊科技和非必需消費品類股漲幅明顯。通訊服務類股(+1.63%)、非必需消費品類股(+2.95%)和工業類股(+1.76%)的趨勢評估轉為正向。資訊科技類股(+2.38%)和金融類股(+1.76%)改善至中性。然而，醫療保健類股(+1.40%)和能源類股(+0.87%)以及房地產類股(+1.65%)等防禦型類股，雖亦上揚，但仍深陷強勁的負面趨勢。

通訊服務類股強勁正向的復甦，以及非必需消費品和工業類股的正向轉變同樣值得注意，與關稅消息一致。然而，醫療保健、能源和房地產類股持續的疲弱，突顯特定產業的問題依然存在。關鍵問題在於，週期性和成長型領域的樂觀情緒能否擴大，或者在貿易談判持續之際，表現不佳的類股是否會限制整體市場的上行空間。

國際市場

全球市場普遍對美國延後對歐盟商品加徵關稅的消息作出正面反應。歐洲市場走高，受惠於此消息及德國消費者信心的改善。日本股市(+2.63%)強勁上漲，維持其穩健的正向趨勢。歐盟和英國亦持續其強勁的正向趨勢，香港的趨勢亦增強至強勁正向。南韓的趨勢顯著改善至正向。相較之下，中國股市(-1.35%)下跌，其趨勢在過去一週已從正向轉弱至中性，印度股市(-0.09%)亦微幅收低，近期亦呈現類似的趨勢趨緩。

日本和歐洲等已開發市場，以及香港和南韓的強勢，表明貿易緊張局勢緩解帶來廣泛的益處。然而，中國股市的回檔和印度市場更為謹慎的立場，顯示區域因素和直接的貿易敏感性持續發揮作用。此種分歧表明，儘管全球風險偏好有所改善，但在持續的貿易不確定性中，各區域表現可能仍會有所差異。

其他資產

比特幣(+1.08%)以單日上漲持續其強勁的正向趨勢。然而，黃金(-1.69%)則顯著下跌，儘管其潛在趨勢依然正向，因關稅延後導致立即的風險觀感趨緩。工業金屬(+0.21%)溫和上漲，但趨勢為負。公債方面，1-3年期(+0.04%)、7-10年期(+0.42%)和20年以上(+1.40%)公債價格均上漲（殖利率下跌），10年期美國公債殖利率降至4.48%，與關稅消息的外部背景以及日本潛在的債務發行變化一致。這些債券的趨勢評估分別為正向、中性和極度負向。

另類資產之間分歧的反應頗具啟示性。比特幣的強勢顯示選擇性的風險偏好。黃金的下跌表示對短期系統性風險的擔憂減少。儘管不同天期公債的潛在趨勢各異，但公債殖利率的下降表明，雖然貿易恐懼有所緩解，但一些潛在的謹慎情緒或特定的固定收益市場動態（如日本潛在的政策轉向）正在影響投資者的行為。股市的樂觀情緒是否能廣泛傳導至其他資產仍是值得關注的重點。

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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Tariff Reprieve Sparks Broad Market Rally, But Underlying Currents Merit Caution

Markets welcome delay in EU tariffs, fueling gains in growth sectors and easing bond yields, though questions remain about sustained momentum amid ongoing trade talks and divergent asset trends.

By Joe 盧, CFA As of May 27, 2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• U.S. equities surged as the postponement of European Union tariffs to July 9 provided a significant boost to market sentiment, particularly benefiting growth-oriented sectors.
• Broad market indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw notable gains and positive trend shifts, though small-caps and semiconductors, despite daily advances, still signal underlying caution.
• Leading U.S. companies, including Microsoft, Meta, and JPMorgan, demonstrated strong positive trend resurgences, while Apple's persistent negative outlook highlights company-specific tariff risks.
• Economic data presented a mixed view with an improved assessment for corporate earnings contrasting with a deteriorating inflation outlook, warranting investor attention.
• Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials led sector advances with positive trend shifts, while defensive sectors like Healthcare and Energy remained weak despite the market lift.
• Developed international markets in Europe and Japan showed continued strength, benefiting from eased trade tensions, though China and India displayed more cautious positioning.
• Bitcoin maintained its strong positive trend, while Gold declined as immediate risk perceptions eased; Treasury yields fell, reflecting the market's reaction to the tariff delay and other fixed-income dynamics.

MARKET OVERVIEW

U.S. equity markets opened higher, buoyed by the weekend news of a delayed 50% tariff on EU imports until July 9. This spurred optimism, particularly in growth sectors like technology and consumer discretionary. European markets also gained on the trade news and better German consumer confidence, with Asian markets largely positive. Domestically, April's durable goods orders fell 6.3%, less than the feared 8.1% drop. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.2%, beating expectations. This resilience, with the tariff delay, fostered a risk-on mood. Bond yields eased, the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.48%, further supporting equities.

The tariff extension, linked by President Trump to constructive EU talks, offers a breather, helping markets recover Friday's losses. While peak trade uncertainty might be past, volatility could persist as the new deadline and other trade negotiations approach. With Q1 earnings season concluding positively (S&P 500 earnings per share growth on track for 13.4%), focus now turns to NVIDIA's upcoming report for insights into tech and AI demand.

BROAD INDICES

Major U.S. stock indices advanced, with the S&P 500 Index (+2.08%) and Nasdaq Composite (+2.35%) gaining as markets welcomed the EU tariff delay. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.81%) also rose. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw trend assessments improve to positive. While the Russell 2000 Index (+2.54%) and PHLX Semiconductor Index (+3.32%) also gained, their underlying negative trends, though moderated, suggest caution remains, particularly in small-caps and semiconductors.

The tariff-driven rally is a positive near-term signal, but the divergence in underlying trends warrants attention. While large-cap and tech leadership is encouraging, the persistent weakness in other segments raises questions about the rally's breadth and durability. Investors will watch if this optimism can build into more sustained, widespread positive momentum.

TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES

Leading U.S. companies largely saw gains amidst the positive tariff news. Tesla Inc. (+6.94%), NVIDIA Corp (+3.21%), and Broadcom Inc (+3.03%) were strong performers. Microsoft Corp (+2.33%), Amazon.com Inc (+2.50%), Meta Platforms Inc (+2.43%), and Alphabet Inc (+2.63%) also advanced. Microsoft, Meta, and JPMorgan Chase & Co (+1.76%) saw their trend assessments improve significantly to strong positive. NVIDIA's trend improved to neutral. Apple Inc (+2.53%) gained despite its persistent strong negative trend linked to iPhone tariff threats.

The improved sentiment clearly benefited these influential stocks. Broadcom’s strengthening trend is a positive for tech. However, Apple's situation highlights how company-specific issues remain. All eyes are on NVIDIA's upcoming earnings for insights into AI demand, a critical factor for broader tech sentiment. The question is whether market optimism can overcome specific headwinds faced by some giants.

U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The U.S. economic landscape shows mixed signals. Corporate Earnings assessment improved to neutral from negative, likely reflecting a strong Q1 earnings season. This hints at fewer immediate earnings concerns. Conversely, the Inflation outlook deteriorated notably to negative from neutral, a significant shift from its positive stance a week ago, suggesting rising disinflationary or even deflationary pressures.

This weakening inflation picture, despite resilient economic data and eased trade tensions, is a key point of watch. While better earnings assessments are welcome, the strong negative trend for Investment Duration and neutral Consumer Strength suggest underlying caution. Investors should weigh if current market optimism fully reflects these potentially divergent signals.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

Sector performance was broadly positive, driven by the EU tariff delay, with Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary benefiting. Communication Services (+1.63%), Consumer Discretionary (+2.95%), and Industrials (+1.76%) saw trend assessments turn positive. Information Technology (+2.38%) and Financials (+1.76%) improved to neutral. However, defensive sectors like Healthcare (+1.40%) and Energy (+0.87%), along with Real Estate (+1.65%), remained mired in strong negative trends despite daily gains.

The strong positive trend resurgence in Communication Services and the positive shifts for Consumer Discretionary and Industrials are notable, aligning with the tariff news. Yet, persistent weakness in Healthcare, Energy, and Real Estate highlights that sector-specific issues remain. The key question is if optimism in cyclical and growth areas can broaden, or if underperforming sectors will limit overall market strength as trade talks continue.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

Global markets generally reacted positively to the U.S. tariff delay on EU goods. European markets traded higher, aided by this and improved German consumer confidence. Japan (+2.63%) posted a strong gain, maintaining its robust positive trend. The European Union and United Kingdom also continued their strong positive trends, and Hong Kong’s trend strengthened to strong positive. South Korea’s trend improved significantly to positive. In contrast, China (-1.35%) declined, its trend having weakened to neutral from positive over the past week, and India (-0.09%) also edged lower, with a similar recent trend easing.

The strength in developed markets like Japan and Europe, alongside Hong Kong and South Korea, indicates broad benefits from eased trade tensions. However, pullbacks in China and the more cautious stance in India suggest regional factors and direct trade sensitivities continue to play a role. This divergence shows that while global risk appetite has improved, varied regional performance is likely amid ongoing trade uncertainties.

OTHER ASSETS

Bitcoin (+1.08%) continued its strong positive trend with a daily gain. Gold (-1.69%), however, fell notably, though its underlying trend remains positive, as immediate risk perceptions eased due to the tariff delay. Industrial Metals (+0.21%) gained modestly but has a negative trend. Regarding Treasuries, prices for 1-3 Year (+0.04%), 7-10 Year (+0.42%), and 20+ Year (+1.40%) bonds rose (yields fell), with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.48%, aligning with the external context of tariff news and potential Japanese debt issuance changes. Trend assessments for these bonds are positive, neutral, and strongly negative, respectively.

The mixed reactions across alternative assets are telling. Bitcoin’s strength suggests selective risk appetite. Gold’s decline indicates reduced immediate systemic risk concern. The drop in Treasury yields, despite varied underlying trends for different durations, suggests that while trade fears eased, some underlying caution or specific fixed-income market dynamics, like Japan's potential policy shift, are influencing investor behavior. Monitoring whether equity optimism translates broadly to other assets remains key.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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