【Joe’s華爾街脈動】市場脈動：輝達財報與關鍵通膨數據前夕，華爾街謹慎觀望

投資者關注科技股指標與PCE指數以尋求方向，聯準會對風險評估維持平衡

Joe 盧, CFA 2025年5月28日 美東時間

重點摘要

• 美國股市下跌，市場參與者等待輝達的關鍵財報，並消化聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議紀錄中，強調聯準會雙重任務面臨平衡風險的內容，營造了數據公布前的謹慎氛圍。
• 主要市場指數呈現好壞參半的趨勢轉變，標普500指數展望轉為中性，而那斯達克綜合指數則維持其正向立場，反映潛在的猶豫不決。
• 美國頂尖企業表現各異，輝達在財報公布前微幅下跌，Meta Platforms的強勁正向趨勢有所緩和，而博通則持續展現強勢。
• 經濟評估顯示投資存續期間持續呈現負面，儘管企業獲利和消費者信心看法較先前疲弱的狀況有所穩定，但通膨展望顯著轉為負面。
• 所有美國類股均回檔，資訊科技和通訊服務等成長導向型領域表現相對優於公用事業和能源等價值型類股，後者跌幅較大且趨勢轉弱。
• 國際市場表現分歧，日本、歐盟和英國展現強勁的正向趨勢，而中國的動能降溫，拉丁美洲的展望則趨緩。
• 其他資產方面，原油儘管潛在趨勢為負，但當日收漲；黃金微幅下跌但維持其正向趨勢；比特幣在整體市場謹慎情緒中下跌，儘管其長期趨勢依然正向。

市場概況

美國股市週三回檔，投資者在科技巨擘輝達(NVIDIA)收盤後、公布財報前的關鍵時段採取謹慎立場。當日經濟數據清淡，市場焦點集中在聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）五月份的會議紀錄。這些紀錄並未提供太多新的洞見，僅重申決策官員承認，在當前不確定性升高的環境下，物價穩定和充分就業雙雙面臨更高風險。此種謹慎情緒瀰漫市場，導致標普500指數所有類股普遍下跌。

債券市場殖利率攀升，10年期美國公債殖利率走高至4.48%，反映投資者持續重新調整對利率走向的預期。展望未來，通膨數據將成為市場焦點，市場靜待週五將公布的四月份個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數。目前預期月增幅將小幅增長，儘管市場仍擔心關稅對未來物價水準的潛在衝擊。即便部分分析師認為美國聯準會將會忽略任何短期的、由關稅引發的物價飆升，但整體通膨軌跡仍是貨幣政策的關鍵變數。

第一季財報季已接近尾聲，輝達(NVIDIA)即將公布的報告及其前瞻指引，特別是關於其中國業務和毛利率的部分，是市場關注的焦點。儘管2025年下半年的獲利預估有所下修，但標普500指數第一季的整體獲利成長依然強勁。市場將密切關注此強勁勢頭能否持續，尤其是在美國經濟數據具韌性以及近期貿易緊張局勢有所降溫的背景下。

主要市場指數

在投資者等待關鍵財報之際，美國主要指數普遍走低，標普500指數單日下跌(-0.58%)，其趨勢評估亦從先前的正向立場轉為中性。此轉變表明近期的向上動能可能停滯。道瓊工業平均指數亦微幅下跌(-0.57%)，維持其負面趨勢，儘管相較於一週前，短期下行壓力似乎有所趨緩。相較之下，那斯達克綜合指數(-0.44%)則守住其正向趨勢，在謹慎的市場情緒中展現相對韌性。羅素2000指數則錄得更為顯著的單日跌幅(-1.05%)，雖然其趨勢依然為負，但相較於上週觀察到的較強負面態勢則有所緩和。費城半導體指數(-0.47%)亦持續其負面趨勢。

主要市場指數之間好壞參半的表現和趨勢轉變，突顯市場正努力應對不確定性。儘管那斯達克綜合指數持續的正向趨勢提供了一絲強勢，但總體市場趨向謹慎，特別是標普500指數的轉變，突顯了投資者在重要科技股財報和即將公布的通膨數據前的猶豫態度。此環境引發了對近期市場漲勢可持續性的疑問，以及目前的觀望態勢將會轉為新的上升趨勢，還是更明顯的盤整或下跌期。

美國前十大公司

美國前十大企業表現好壞參半，博通(Broadcom Inc.)(+1.60%)表現突出，錄得上漲並維持其非常強勁的正向趨勢，顯示投資者信心持續。相反地，特斯拉(Tesla Inc.)則出現顯著的單日跌幅(-1.65%)，儘管其整體趨勢依然正向。輝達(NVIDIA Corp.)(-0.51%)在其備受期待的財報公布前微幅下跌，趨勢維持中性。微軟(Microsoft Corp.)(-0.72%)亦下跌，雖然其趨勢仍為正向，但已較先前更強的評估有所趨緩。蘋果(Apple Inc.)(+0.10%)微幅上漲，但仍深陷極度負面的趨勢。Meta Platforms Inc.(+0.20%)小幅走高，但其趨勢從強勁正向轉為中性，顯示向上動能顯著減弱。

類股內部不同的表現和趨勢動態，反映出市場極度關注個別公司前景和特定產業消息，尤其是在輝達(NVIDIA)財報即將公布之際。微軟(Microsoft)和Meta等巨擘動能的趨緩，與博通(Broadcom)的持續強勢形成對比，暗示投資者需採取更具辨別力的策略。關鍵問題在於，即將公布的財報，特別是輝達(NVIDIA)的財報，是否能重振整體科技股的情緒，或者確認目前普遍存在的謹慎基調。

美國經濟指標

投資存續期間的展望依然明確為負，評估未變，預示此領域持續存在不利因素。此背景可能反映了在關鍵通膨數據公布前以及對美國聯準會政策路徑持續不確定的情況下，市場普遍存在的謹慎情緒，尤其是在最新的FOMC會議紀錄承認其雙重任務面臨雙向風險之後。

然而，其他經濟評估則出現一些細微轉變。企業獲利的看法已從一週前較為負面的立場穩定至中性，儘管第一季財報季在標普500指數強勁業績下接近尾聲，先前的擔憂已有所緩解。同樣地，消費者信心的評估，在過去一週已從負面改善至中性，表明儘管擔憂關稅對物價產生衝擊，但情況有所穩定。最值得注意的是，通膨展望已從一週前的正向轉為負面，此為預期中的重大轉變，投資者將仔細權衡即將公布的PCE數據。這些細緻的變化顯示出一幅複雜的經濟景象，其中對投資存續期間的短期擔憂與對企業獲利和消費者韌性略有改善的看法形成對比，所有這一切都籠罩在不斷演變的通膨動態陰影之下。

類股概況

在輝達(NVIDIA)財報和FOMC會議紀錄公布前，全部十一個標普500類股均收低，反映市場普遍的謹慎情緒。資訊科技類股(-0.41%)和通訊服務類股(-0.02%)等成長導向型領域表現相對優於價值型類股。資訊科技類股維持其負面趨勢。通訊服務類股儘管當日微幅下跌，其強勁的正向趨勢略有緩和。公用事業類股(-1.40%)和能源類股(-1.27%)等價值型類股則出現更為顯著的跌幅。公用事業類股趨勢從正向轉為中性，而能源類股則繼續深陷強勁的負面趨勢。金融類股(-0.67%)亦錄得單日跌幅，維持其負面趨勢。

儘管幅度各異，全面性的下跌突顯了市場的謹慎氛圍。即使是在下跌的市場中，成長型類股依然相對表現較佳，表明投資者仍存在一定的興趣，可能與對關鍵科技股財報的預期有關。然而，公用事業類股趨勢轉弱，以及能源類股持續低迷，突顯市場中幾個令人憂心的類股。投資者將關注即將公布的通膨數據和財報內容是否能夠扭轉這些產業趨勢，特別是成長股能否維持韌性，或者價值型類股能否找到更穩固的立足點。

國際市場

國際市場趨勢呈現分歧景象。日本市場顯著改善，其趨勢從一週前的中性轉為強勁正向，表明儘管當日市場下跌(-1.79%)，正面情緒仍顯著飆升。同樣地，南韓、澳洲，以及中東與非洲地區的趨勢在過去一週均從中性轉為正向。歐盟和英國維持其非常強勁的正向趨勢，反映投資者信心持續。加拿大亦持續其穩健的正向趨勢。新加坡則以其一貫非常強勁的正向趨勢，持續作為強勢指標。

相反地，中國市場的展望在一週前從正向轉為中性，顯示動能減弱，其市場當日亦下跌(-1.31%)。台灣的趨勢近期從中性轉為負面。印度維持其負面趨勢，其市場當日亦微幅下跌(-0.44%)。拉丁美洲的趨勢則從正向轉弱至中性，顯示近期向上動能有所流失。此種分歧突顯區域經濟狀況、政策預期和特定市場驅動因素正創造出不同的發展軌跡。日本和部分歐洲地區的強勢，與中國市場情緒的降溫形成對比，這讓全球資產配置者對機會與風險何在產生了疑問。

其他資產

在另類資產領域，原油(+0.91%)當日收漲，儘管其整體趨勢依然極度負面。黃金(-0.23%)小幅下跌，但其長期趨勢評估仍為強勁正向。比特幣(-2.74%)則出現顯著的單日跌幅，連續第二日下跌，市場在近期高點後似乎稍作喘息；不過，其趨勢依然強勁正向。工業金屬(-0.70%)亦下跌，持續其強勁的負面趨勢。農產品(-1.07%)錄得跌幅，其趨勢評估為負面。

固定收益替代品方面，1-3年期美國公債(-0.07%)微幅下跌，其趨勢為正向。7-10年期美國公債(-0.29%)亦下跌，趨勢評估為負面。長天期的20年以上美國公債(-0.43%)下跌，維持強勁的負面趨勢。整體市場背景下觀察到的公債殖利率上升，與這些債券相關資產的價格下跌一致。不同的表現和趨勢突顯了一個複雜的環境，其中黃金等傳統通膨避險工具展現潛在強勢，而對成長敏感的大宗商品和某些固定收益市場區塊則面臨不利因素。比特幣持續波動，儘管其長期趨勢仍維持正向。

保持聯繫並分享洞見：
若您覺得本文有幫助，請點讚支持。
歡迎將此新聞通訊轉發給可能覺得有價值的同事和朋友。
訂閱即可直接在您的信箱中接收此分析。
在社群媒體上追蹤我們以獲取更多更新。

本新聞通訊僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議或買賣任何證券或資產類別的推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期為止的觀點，並可能隨時更改，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊係基於從據信可靠來源獲得的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現不代表未來結果。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決定前，應諮詢自己的財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論資產或資產類別的部位。

立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）

關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Market Pulse: Caution Grips Wall Street Ahead of NVIDIA Earnings & Key Inflation Data

Investors Eye Tech Bellwether and PCE Index for Direction Amidst Fed's Balanced Risk Assessment

By Joe 盧, CFA As of May 28, 2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• U.S. equities declined as market participants awaited NVIDIA's pivotal earnings and digested FOMC minutes that highlighted balanced risks to the Fed's dual mandate, fostering a cautious pre-data atmosphere.
• Broad market indices showed mixed trend shifts, with the S&P 500 Index moving to a neutral outlook while the Nasdaq Composite maintained its positive stance, reflecting underlying indecision.
• Performance among top U.S. companies varied, with NVIDIA experiencing a slight dip pre-earnings and Meta Platforms seeing its strong positive trend moderate, while Broadcom continued to show strength.
• Economic assessments indicated persistent negativity for investment duration, though corporate earnings and consumer strength views stabilized from previously weaker positions, while the inflation outlook notably shifted to negative.
• All U.S. sectors retreated, with growth-oriented areas like Information Technology and Communication Services faring relatively better than value sectors such as Utilities and Energy, which saw more significant declines and trend weakening.
• International markets displayed divergence, with Japan, the European Union, and the UK showing robust positive trends, while China's momentum cooled and Latin America's outlook softened.
• In other assets, Crude Oil saw a daily gain despite a negative underlying trend, Gold dipped but maintained its positive trend, and Bitcoin declined amidst broader market caution, though its long-term trend remains positive.

MARKET OVERVIEW

U.S. equity markets retreated on Wednesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of pivotal earnings from technology heavyweight NVIDIA, due after the closing bell. The day was otherwise characterized by a light economic calendar, with the primary focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from their May meeting. These minutes offered little new insight, reiterating policymakers' acknowledgement of increased risks to both price stability and full employment amidst an uncertain policy environment. This sense of caution permeated the market, leading to a broad-based decline across all S&P 500 sectors.

The bond market saw yields climb, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moving higher to 4.48%, reflecting ongoing investor recalibration of interest rate expectations. Looking ahead, inflation data will come sharply into focus with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for April on Friday. Current expectations suggest a modest monthly increase, though concerns persist regarding the potential impact of tariffs on future price levels. While some analysts believe the Federal Reserve will look through any short-term, tariff-induced price spikes, the overall inflation trajectory remains a key variable for monetary policy.

The first-quarter earnings season is drawing to a close, with NVIDIA's upcoming report and its forward guidance, particularly concerning its China business and gross margins, being a critical focal point. Despite some downward revisions to earnings estimates for the remainder of 2025, overall S&P 500 earnings growth has been robust in the first quarter. The market will be closely watching to see if this strength can be sustained, especially in light of resilient U.S. economic data and a recent de-escalation in trade tensions.

BROAD INDICES

U.S. major indices largely softened as investors awaited key earnings reports, with the S&P 500 Index experiencing a daily decline (-0.58%) and its trend assessment shifting to neutral from a prior positive stance. This change suggests a potential pause in the recent upward momentum. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw a modest dip (-0.57%), maintaining its negative trend, though the immediate downward pressure appears to have eased compared to a week ago. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite (-0.44%) held onto its positive trend, demonstrating relative resilience amidst the cautious market sentiment. The Russell 2000 Index posted a more significant daily loss (-1.05%), and while its trend remains negative, it showed some moderation from the stronger negativity observed last week. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-0.47%) also continued its negative trend.

The mixed performance and trend shifts across the broad indices highlight a market grappling with uncertainty. While the Nasdaq Composite's continued positive trend offers a pocket of strength, the broader shift towards caution, particularly for the S&P 500 Index, underscores investor hesitancy ahead of significant tech earnings and upcoming inflation data. This environment raises questions about the sustainability of recent market gains and whether the current pause will resolve into a renewed uptrend or a more pronounced period of consolidation or decline.

TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES

Performance among the top 10 U.S. companies was mixed, with Broadcom Inc. (+1.60%) standing out with a gain and maintaining its very strong positive trend, signaling continued investor confidence. Conversely, Tesla Inc. saw a notable daily decline (-1.65%), though its overall trend remains positive. NVIDIA Corp. (-0.51%) experienced a slight dip ahead of its highly anticipated earnings report, with its trend holding at neutral. Microsoft Corp. (-0.72%) also declined, and while its trend is still positive, it has eased from a previously stronger assessment. Apple Inc. (+0.10%) saw a marginal gain but remains entrenched in a deeply negative trend. Meta Platforms Inc. (+0.20%) edged higher, but its trend shifted to neutral from strong positive, indicating a significant loss of upward momentum.

The varied performance and trend dynamics within this group reflect a market keenly focused on individual company prospects and sector-specific news, especially with NVIDIA's earnings looming large. The easing momentum for giants like Microsoft and Meta, juxtaposed with Broadcom's continued strength, suggests a discerning investor approach. The key question is whether upcoming earnings, particularly from NVIDIA, will provide a catalyst to reinvigorate broader tech sentiment or confirm the cautious undertones currently prevailing.

U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The outlook for investment duration remains decidedly negative, with the assessment unchanged and signaling persistent headwinds in this area. This backdrop likely reflects the cautious sentiment pervading markets ahead of key inflation data and ongoing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path, especially after the latest FOMC minutes acknowledged risks to both sides of the dual mandate.

However, there were some subtle shifts in other economic assessments. The view on corporate earnings has stabilized to neutral from a previously negative stance a week ago, suggesting some easing of prior concerns, even as Q1 earnings season winds down with strong S&P 500 results. Similarly, the assessment for consumer strength has improved to neutral from negative over the past week, indicating some stabilization despite concerns about potential tariff impacts on prices. Perhaps most notably, the inflation outlook has shifted to negative from positive a week ago, a significant change in expectations that investors will weigh carefully against upcoming PCE data. These nuanced changes suggest a complex economic picture where immediate concerns about investment duration contrast with slightly improving views on earnings and consumer resilience, all under the shadow of evolving inflation dynamics.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

All eleven S&P 500 sectors finished lower, reflecting the broad-based caution ahead of NVIDIA's earnings and the FOMC minutes. Growth-oriented sectors like Information Technology (-0.41%) and Communication Services (-0.02%) fared relatively better than value sectors. Information Technology maintained its negative trend. Communication Services, despite its modest daily dip, saw its strong positive trend moderate slightly. Value-style sectors such as Utilities (-1.40%) and Energy (-1.27%) experienced more pronounced declines. Utilities shifted to a neutral trend from positive, while Energy remained entrenched in a strongly negative trend. Financials (-0.67%) also saw a daily loss, holding its negative trend.

The across-the-board declines, albeit with varying magnitudes, underscore the cautious market mood. The relative outperformance of growth sectors, even in a down market, suggests some underlying investor interest, possibly linked to earnings expectations for key tech names. However, the trend deterioration in Utilities and the persistent weakness in Energy highlight areas of concern. Investors will be watching to see if upcoming inflation data and the ongoing earnings narrative can shift these sectoral trends, particularly whether the resilience in growth can be sustained or if value sectors find a firmer footing.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

International market trends presented a varied picture. Japan showed a significant improvement, with its trend shifting to strongly positive from neutral a week ago, indicating a notable surge in positive sentiment despite a daily market dip (-1.79%). Similarly, South Korea, Australia, and the Middle East & Africa all saw their trends turn positive from neutral over the past week. The European Union and the United Kingdom maintained their very strong positive trends, reflecting sustained investor confidence. Canada also continued its robust positive trend. Singapore remained a beacon of strength with a consistent, very strong positive trend.

Conversely, the outlook for China shifted to neutral from positive a week ago, suggesting fading momentum, and its market saw a daily decline (-1.31%). Taiwan’s trend turned negative from neutral recently. India maintained its negative trend, with its market also experiencing a slight daily dip (-0.44%). Latin America’s trend weakened to neutral from positive, indicating a loss of recent upward momentum. This divergence highlights how regional economic conditions, policy expectations, and specific market drivers are creating distinct trajectories. The strength in Japan and parts of Europe contrasts with the cooling sentiment in China, posing questions for global asset allocators about where opportunities and risks lie.

OTHER ASSETS

In the alternative asset space, Crude Oil (+0.91%) posted a gain on the day, though its overarching trend remains deeply negative. Gold (-0.23%) experienced a minor dip, but its long-term trend assessment is strongly positive. Bitcoin (-2.74%) saw a notable daily decline, a second straight day of falls, as the market appeared to take a breather after recent highs; its trend remains strongly positive. Industrial Metals (-0.70%) also fell, continuing their strongly negative trend. Agricultural Commodities (-1.07%) registered a decline, with their trend assessed as negative.

Among fixed-income proxies, 1-3 Year Treasury Bonds (-0.07%) saw a slight decrease, with their trend being positive. 7-10 Year Treasury Bonds (-0.29%) also declined, with a negative trend assessment. Longer-dated 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (-0.43%) fell, maintaining a strongly negative trend. The rise in Treasury yields noted in the broader market context aligns with the price declines in these bond-related assets. The varied performance and trends underscore a complex environment where traditional inflation hedges like Gold show underlying strength, while growth-sensitive commodities and certain fixed-income segments face headwinds. Bitcoin's volatility continues, even as its longer-term positive trend persists for now.

Stay Connected & Share the Insights:

Like this article if you found it helpful.

• Forward this newsletter to colleagues and friends who might find it valuable.
• Subscribe to receive this analysis directly to your inbox.
• Follow us on social media for more updates.

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

Join the official LINE account of "Joe’s Wall Street Pulse" now to receive the latest column updates (click here to join)