•
【Joe’s華爾街脈動】通膨趨緩之際，貿易緊張局勢擾動市場
美中貿易摩擦加劇經濟前景複雜性，投資者謹慎情緒升高
Joe 盧, CFA 2025年5月30日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 再起的美中貿易緊張局勢刺激市場避險情緒蔓延，蓋過近期PCE通膨趨緩的影響，並促使資金流向防禦型資產。
- 主要股市指數微幅收低，小型股和科技股表現落後，而標普500等關鍵基準指數的正向趨勢則有所緩和。
- 美國頂尖企業表現各異，部分主要科技股顯著下跌，與其他個股的韌性形成對比，個股趨勢亦出現轉變。
- 美國各類股呈現明顯的防禦性輪動，必需消費品和公用事業類股受青睞且趨勢改善，資訊科技類股則表現落後。
- 國際市場，特別是亞洲市場，對貿易發展呈現緊張反應，儘管數個已開發區域維持其潛在的正向趨勢。
- 避險需求帶動美國公債上漲，黃金則微幅回檔，原油價格因供給考量和潛在需求擔憂而走軟。
市場概況
新一輪的美中貿易緊張局勢主導了週五市場，雙邊官方聲明顯示談判陷入僵局，並互控對方違反協議，為市場注入新的不確定性。預期摩擦將持續存在，為市場形勢增添挑戰。市場避險情緒升溫；必需消費品和公用事業類股上漲，而科技和能源類股則表現落後。在避險情緒下，債券殖利率下降（10年期美國公債殖利率來到4.40%），美元則走強。WTI原油因供給和貿易擔憂而微幅走低。在美國法院恢復部分關稅後，亞洲市場亦下跌。
四月份個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數顯示通膨趨緩（總體年增2.1%，核心年增2.5%）。儘管如此，預期美國聯準會將維持現行政策立場，並持續觀察關稅衝擊與勞動市場狀況。當前普遍存在的貿易不確定性，對短期市場方向的影響已超越通膨數據，因此投資者需對地緣政治發展及其可能迅速改變市場動態的潛在影響保持高度警覺。
主要市場指數
貿易緊張局勢拖累美國股市表現。道瓊工業平均指數上漲(+0.09%)，但標普500指數下跌(-0.11%)，那斯達克綜合指數則下跌(-0.16%)。羅素2000指數下跌(-0.51%)，費城半導體指數則下跌(-2.14%)。標普500和那斯達克指數的趨勢趨緩至中性，而羅素2000指數的趨勢則惡化至極度負面。
此表現突顯市場對貿易消息的敏感度高於通膨數據，小型股和科技股的表現落後顯示避險情緒。羅素2000指數趨勢明顯轉弱，預示若貿易爭端持續，市場對美國本土成長前景的擔憂將加劇，投資者宜保持警惕。
美國前十大公司
在貿易疑慮升溫下，美國頂尖企業表現分歧。微軟(Microsoft Corp)(+0.37%)、Meta Platforms Inc(+0.38%)和蘋果(Apple Inc)(+0.45%)上漲。然而，輝達(NVIDIA Corp)(-2.92%)和特斯拉(Tesla Inc)(-3.34%)則急劇下跌。Meta的趨勢改善至正向，而輝達(NVIDIA)的趨勢轉為負面，特斯拉的趨勢則趨緩至中性。
輝達(NVIDIA)和特斯拉(Tesla)等知名科技股的下跌，突顯了貿易擔憂對市場領導股的衝擊；儘管Meta趨勢的改善顯示出一些分歧，投資者已開始質疑，在當前保守情緒擴散的情況下，部分大型科技成分股的強勢是否仍能延續。
美國經濟指標
對美國經濟特性的分析顯示，投資存續期間展望大幅轉弱至極度負面，預示即便通膨壓力緩解，市場在貿易緊張局勢下的悲觀情緒可能日益加劇。企業獲利和通膨展望維持負面，消費者信心則為中性。
投資存續期間的顯著惡化表明，投資者變得更具防禦性並縮短投資期限。當企業獲利和通膨持續低迷，以及中性的消費者展望，整體市場信心將受到考驗，也突顯出貿易相關言論可能對市場產生長期衝擊的風險。
類股概況
受到貿易擔憂影響，類股表現呈現明顯的防禦性佈局。必需消費品類股(+0.88%)和公用事業類股(+1.02%)領漲。資訊科技類股(-0.31%)和能源類股(-0.89%)則顯著落後。公用事業類股的趨勢顯著增強至強勁正向，而金融類股轉為負面，必需消費品和通訊服務類股則改善至正向。
此防禦性類股的優異表現，尤其是公用事業類股的強勁正向趨勢，是市場在應對貿易不確定性時的典型反應，因投資者尋求避險與收益來源。科技股的下跌突顯其貿易脆弱性。關鍵問題在於，若貿易問題持續，此輪動是暫時反應還是市場領導地位的更深層轉變。
國際市場
美中貿易問題引發的謹慎情緒波及國際市場，尤其是在美國關稅裁決後，亞洲市場受到明顯衝擊。歐洲股市(+0.08%)和日本股市(+0.12%)微幅上漲，但中國股市(-1.93%)、印度股市(-0.51%)、新興亞洲市場(-1.26%)和拉丁美洲市場(-1.71%)均下跌。印度的趨勢轉為負面，而數個已開發區域則維持強勁的正向趨勢。
中國和新興亞洲市場的下跌直接顯示了關稅衝擊，而部分已開發市場具韌性的正向趨勢則表明其他因素正在發揮作用。此種分歧突顯了採取細緻化區域觀點的必要性，在美中摩擦持續下，正向趨勢的持久性仍是投資者面臨的關鍵問題。
其他資產
政府公債出現避險資金流入：1-3年期美國公債(+0.12%)、7-10年期美國公債(+0.30%)和20年以上美國公債(+0.15%)均上漲。然而，黃金則下跌(-0.66%)。原油價格因與貿易相關的供給和需求擔憂而走弱(-0.06%)。比特幣下跌(-0.88%)。未觀察到顯著的趨勢變化。
對美國公債需求的增加直接反映了貿易擔憂引發的避險情緒。黃金反常的下跌值得關注。原油的疲弱與供給面消息及潛在的貿易衝擊相符。在貿易政策不確定性未解的情況下，這些資產的走勢是判斷風險偏好轉變的重要參考指標。
保持聯繫並分享洞見：
若您覺得本文有幫助，請點讚支持。
歡迎將此新聞通訊轉發給可能覺得有價值的同事和朋友。
訂閱即可直接在您的信箱中接收此分析。
在社群媒體上追蹤我們以獲取更多更新。
本新聞通訊僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議或買賣任何證券或資產類別的推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期為止的觀點，並可能隨時更改，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊係基於從據信可靠來源獲得的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現不代表未來結果。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決定前，應諮詢自己的財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論資產或資產類別的部位。
立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）
關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》
鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。
Trade Tensions Rattle Markets as Inflation Moderates
Investor Caution Mounts as U.S.-China Trade Frictions Complicate Economic Outlook
By Joe 盧, CFA As of May 30, 2025
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Renewed U.S.-China trade tensions spurred a risk-off sentiment across markets, overshadowing recent PCE inflation moderation and prompting a flight to defensive assets.
- Broad equity indices edged lower, with small-cap and technology stocks underperforming, while key benchmarks like the S&P 500 saw their positive trends moderate.
- Performance among top U.S. companies was varied, as notable declines in some major technology names contrasted with resilience in others, amidst shifts in individual stock trends.
- A clear defensive rotation was evident in U.S. sectors, with Consumer Staples and Utilities gaining favor and showing improved trends, while Information Technology lagged.
- International markets, particularly in Asia, displayed nervousness in response to trade developments, though several developed regions maintained their positive underlying trends.
- Safe-haven demand led to gains in U.S. Treasury bonds, while Gold saw a slight pullback and Crude Oil prices softened on supply considerations and potential demand concerns.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Renewed U.S.-China trade tensions dominated Friday, as official statements signaled stalled negotiations and alleged agreement violations, injecting fresh uncertainty. I expect persistent frictions, creating a challenging backdrop. Markets reacted with a flight to safety; consumer staples and utility stocks gained while technology and energy lagged. Amidst the risk-off mood, bond yields fell (10-year Treasury at 4.40%), and the U.S. dollar strengthened. WTI crude oil edged lower on supply and trade concerns. Asian markets also declined after a U.S. court reinstated some tariffs.
April's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed inflation moderating (2.1% headline, 2.5% core). Despite this, I anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain current policy, assessing tariff impacts and the labor market. The prevailing trade uncertainty currently outweighs the inflation data in shaping immediate market direction, demanding investor vigilance regarding geopolitical developments and their potential to swiftly alter market dynamics.
BROAD INDICES
Trade tensions drove U.S. equity markets lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained (+0.09%), but the S&P 500 Index fell (-0.11%) and the Nasdaq Composite by (-0.16%). The Russell 2000 Index dropped (-0.51%) and the PHLX Semiconductor Index (-2.14%). Trends for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq softened to neutral, while the Russell 2000's deteriorated to strongly negative.
This performance highlights market sensitivity to trade news over inflation data, with underperformance in small caps and tech indicating risk aversion. The Russell 2000's pronounced negative trend shift signals heightened concern for domestic growth prospects if trade disputes persist, demanding investor vigilance.
TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES
Top U.S. company performance was mixed amid trade concerns. Microsoft Corp (+0.37%), Meta Platforms Inc (+0.38%), and Apple Inc (+0.45%) gained. However, NVIDIA Corp (-2.92%) and Tesla Inc (-3.34%) fell sharply. Meta's trend improved to positive, while NVIDIA's turned negative and Tesla's eased to neutral.
Declines in prominent tech names like NVIDIA and Tesla underscore the impact of trade concerns on market leaders, though Meta's improved trend showed some divergence. Investors now question if selective large-cap strength can endure if broader caution driven by trade uncertainty continues to pressure key technology constituents.
U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS
My analysis of U.S. economic characteristics showed a marked downturn in the Investment Duration outlook to strongly negative, signaling growing pessimism likely tied to trade tensions, despite moderating inflation. Outlooks for Corporate Earnings and Inflation held negative, with Consumer Strength neutral.
This significant deterioration in Investment Duration suggests investors are becoming more defensive and shortening time horizons. Combined with persistently negative views on earnings and inflation and a neutral consumer outlook, this questions overall market conviction, highlighting concerns that trade rhetoric could have a lasting impact.
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Defensive positioning was clear in sector performance due to trade concerns. Consumer Staples (+0.88%) and Utilities (+1.02%) led. Information Technology (-0.31%) and Energy (-0.89%) lagged significantly. The Utilities' trend strengthened markedly to strongly positive, while Financials turned negative, and Staples and Communication Services improved to positive.
This defensive outperformance, especially the Utilities' strong positive trend, is a classic response to trade uncertainty as investors seek shelter and yield. Tech's decline highlights its trade vulnerability. The key question is whether this rotation is a temporary reaction or a more sustained leadership shift if trade issues persist.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Caution from U.S.-China trade issues impacted international markets, especially in Asia following a U.S. tariff ruling. Europe (+0.08%) and Japan (+0.12%) saw slight gains, but China (-1.93%), India (-0.51%), Emerging Asia (-1.26%), and Latin America (-1.71%) fell. India's trend shifted to negative, while several developed regions maintained strong positive trends.
Declines in China and Emerging Asia show direct tariff impacts, while resilient positive trends in some developed markets suggest other factors are at play. This divergence underscores the need for a nuanced regional view, with the durability of positive trends amid U.S.-China friction remaining a key question for investors.
OTHER ASSETS
Government bonds saw safe-haven inflows: 1-3 Year Treasuries (+0.12%), 7-10 Year Treasuries (+0.30%), and 20+ Year Treasuries (+0.15%) gained. Gold, however, declined (-0.66%). Crude Oil prices eased (-0.06%) on supply and demand concerns tied to trade. Bitcoin fell (-0.88%). No significant trend changes were noted.
Heightened demand for U.S. Treasuries directly reflects risk-off sentiment from trade worries. Gold's counterintuitive dip warrants attention. Crude oil's softness aligns with supply news and potential trade impacts. These asset movements critically signal shifting risk appetite under persistent trade policy uncertainty.
Stay Connected & Share the Insights:
Like this article if you found it helpful.
- Forward this newsletter to colleagues and friends who might find it valuable.
- Subscribe to receive this analysis directly to your inbox.
- Follow us on social media for more updates.
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
Join the official LINE account of "Joe’s Wall Street Pulse" now to receive the latest column updates (click here to join)