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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】特斯拉震盪與貿易談判期望撼動市場
在企業特定消息與經濟訊號錯綜複雜之際，美股受挫；全球市場則因外交斡旋獲得些許慰藉，投資者靜待關鍵勞動市場指標
Joe 盧, CFA 2025年6月5日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 由於特斯拉(Tesla)股價大幅下跌以及新浮現的勞動市場擔憂，蓋過了美中貿易商議帶來的初期樂觀情緒，美國市場回落。
- 整體股市指數的趨勢轉變不一，大型股普遍維持正向展望，而小型股則顯示審慎度提高。
- 美國龍頭企業的表現急遽分化，特斯拉(Tesla)股價暴跌以及博通(Broadcom)等AI相關股票持續強勢，形成鮮明對比。
- 經濟評估顯示企業獲利和通膨前景改善，但與此同時，消費者信心看法轉弱，且投資存續期間持續審慎。
- 類股趨勢具選擇性，工業類股轉強，而能源和醫療保健類股則顯疲弱，顯示投資者偏好具辨別力。
- 國際市場大致維持正向趨勢，尤其在歐洲和亞洲部分地區，主要受到貿易對話和寬鬆貨幣政策的支持。
- 黃金儘管單日下跌，但其潛在趨勢轉強，原油則維持中性，短期公債則在關鍵經濟數據發布前呈現持平格局。
市場概覽
美國股市今日走弱，主要受到特斯拉(Tesla)股價大幅下挫的拖累。該股下跌導因於此前川普總統就潛在修訂政府合約的相關言論。此一發展蓋過了早先因美中兩國元首就貿易問題進行建設性對話報導而引發的較樂觀市場基調。該通話最初點燃了貿易緊張局勢緩解的希望，此種情緒似乎為國際股市提供了支撐，歐洲和加拿大股市均錄得小幅上漲。
經濟方面，近期貿易政策變動的影響逐漸浮現。美國4月份進口數據大幅下滑，扭轉了先前因關稅驅動所導致的提前進口現象，預計這將對第二季美國國內生產毛額(GDP)數據產生正向扭曲。然而，在此背後，勞動市場降溫的跡象正在浮現。初請領失業金人數連續第二週上升，加上持續申領失業救濟金人數居高不下，以及更多產業的裁員公告增加，這在明日關鍵的美國非農業就業報告發布前，帶來了警示訊號。
市場參與者正熱切等待週五的就業數據，以觀察近期徵才數據和申領失業救濟金人數所顯示的疲弱，是否會在基準勞動市場數據發布中得到證實。儘管市場共識預期就業成長將放緩，但若出現大幅遜於預期的意外，可能會引發美國聯準會的擔憂，尤其是在部分人士預期通膨將加速的情況下。在這樣的背景下，市場普遍預期聯準會將維持其現行政策立場不變直至9月份，之後才會評估是否對利率進行任何調整。
整體市場指數
美國主要指數如標普500指數(-0.48%)和那斯達克綜合指數(-0.75%)下跌，儘管早先受到美中貿易商議的提振，但尾盤的擔憂情緒對市場造成影響。羅素2000指數(+0.04%)小幅上漲，但其分析指標從正向轉為中性。標普500指數和那斯達克指數則維持其正向趨勢。
此一走勢分歧突顯市場的觀望態度。雖然大型股的量化指標持續正向，但在關鍵就業數據公布前，小型股的動能停滯，顯示投資者正在對經濟前景的廣度以及潛在風險進行重新評估。
美國十大企業
由於川普總統就合約問題發表評論，特斯拉(Tesla Inc.)股價暴跌(-14.26%)，嚴重影響了頂尖企業間的分歧表現；輝達(NVIDIA Corp)(-1.36%)亦下跌，而微軟(Microsoft Corp)(+0.82%)則上漲。特斯拉(Tesla)的量化指標趨勢急遽轉為負面，蘋果(Apple Inc.)的指標仍處於高度負面，而微軟(Microsoft)的趨勢則改善至正向。
此顯著差異突顯市場對特定消息和人工智慧(AI)等主流題材的高度敏感性。特斯拉(Tesla)的下跌凸顯了公司特定風險，並對近期一些主要成長股的領導地位提出質疑。
美國經濟指標
企業獲利與通膨前景皆出現改善跡象，企業獲利的量化分析結果轉為正向，通膨則從先前的負面評估穩定至中性。然而，消費者信心的評估則轉弱至中性，投資存續期間的前景則仍為負面。
這些相互矛盾的訊號描繪出當前經濟情勢的複雜樣貌。企業體質強化和通膨緩解是正面因素，但在就業數據公布前，潛在的勞動市場降溫和消費者審慎態度仍是投資人不可忽略的因素。
產業類股總覽
工業類股表現亮眼，其指標趨勢增強至非常正向。相反地，能源類股的趨勢進一步惡化，醫療保健類股的趨勢則轉弱至負面。資訊科技類股(-0.28%)和原物料類股儘管單日波動不大，其趨勢則出現一些穩定跡象。
整體來看，類股表現具選擇性。工業類股展現樂觀，但能源類股的持續疲弱和醫療保健類股的下滑則令人擔憂。即將公布的就業數據將對形塑類股前景至關重要。
國際市場
全球市場大致正向，歐盟(+0.10%)和英國的趨勢維持強勁正向，主要受到美中貿易談判樂觀情緒和歐洲央行行動的提振。主要亞洲市場亦維持堅挺，儘管日本的正向趨勢趨緩，而印度的趨勢則仍為負面。
整體市場表現偏強，特別是在已開發市場，反映出全球投資者情緒樂觀。然而，區域差異持續存在，且持續的強勢可能取決於美國經濟的發展軌跡。
其他資產
黃金(-0.50%)下跌，但其趨勢改善至正向，而原油(+0.85%)上漲，維持中性趨勢。比特幣(-2.97%)下跌。1-3年期美國公債(-0.11%)維持中性。
黃金趨勢的改善顯示市場尋求避險。原油不明朗的趨勢以及短期公債的中性表現，反映投資者採取觀望態度，可能在等待即將公布的就業數據帶來更清晰的經濟訊號。
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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》
鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。 Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。 Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。
Tesla Tremors and Trade Talk Hopes Shake Markets Ahead of Key Jobs Data
U.S. equities falter on company-specific news and mixed economic signals, while global markets find some solace in diplomatic overtures as investors brace for crucial labor market indicators.
By Joe 盧, CFA As of June 5, 2025
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
U.S. markets retreated as a significant drop in Tesla shares and emerging labor market concerns overshadowed initial optimism from U.S-China trade discussions.
- Broad equity indices saw mixed trend shifts, with large-caps generally holding positive outlooks while small-caps signaled increased caution.
- Performance among leading U.S. companies diverged sharply, highlighted by Tesla's plunge and the continued strength of AI-related stocks like Broadcom.
- Economic assessments revealed improving corporate earnings and inflation outlooks, contrasting with a softening view on consumer strength and persistent caution on investment duration.
- Sector trends were selective, with Industrials strengthening while Energy and Healthcare showed weakness, indicating a discerning investor appetite.
- International markets largely maintained positive trends, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia, supported by trade dialogue and accommodative monetary policy.
- Gold's underlying trend strengthened despite a daily dip, while oil remained neutral and short-term Treasuries reflected a holding pattern ahead of critical economic data.
MARKET OVERVIEW
U.S. equity markets experienced a setback today, with a notable decline in Tesla shares influencing broader market sentiment after presidential comments hinted at potential revisions to government contracts. This development overshadowed an earlier, more optimistic market tone that followed reports of a constructive dialogue on trade between the U.S. President and his Chinese counterpart. The call initially fueled hopes for an easing of trade tensions, a sentiment that appeared to lend support to international equity markets, with European and Canadian stocks posting modest gains.
The economic landscape is increasingly reflecting the impact of recent trade policy shifts. A significant contraction in U.S. imports in April, a reversal of earlier tariff-driven front-loading, is expected to positively distort second-quarter GDP figures. However, underlying this, signs of a cooling labor market are emerging. A rise in initial unemployment insurance claims for the second consecutive week, coupled with persistently high continuing claims and elevated job-cut announcements across more sectors, introduces a note of caution ahead of tomorrow's critical U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.
Market participants are keenly awaiting Friday's employment data to see if the softness indicated by recent hiring figures and claims data will be confirmed in the benchmark labor market release. While consensus expectations are for a slowdown in payroll gains, a significant downside surprise could raise concerns for the Federal Reserve, particularly if inflation accelerates as some anticipate. Against this backdrop, the prevailing market expectation is for the Fed to maintain its current policy stance until September, before considering any adjustments to interest rates.
BROAD INDICES
U.S. major indices like the S&P 500 Index (-0.48%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.75%) fell, impacted by late-session concerns despite an initial lift from U.S.-China trade discussions. The Russell 2000 Index (+0.04%) saw a minor gain but its trend shifted to neutral from positive. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq maintained their positive trends.
This divergence highlights market caution. While large-cap positive trends persist, the small-cap hesitation, ahead of key jobs data, suggests investor uncertainty about the economic outlook's breadth and potential risk reassessment.
TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES
Tesla Inc. shares plunged (-14.26%) due to presidential comments on contracts, heavily influencing the mixed performance among top companies; NVIDIA Corp (-1.36%) also declined while Microsoft Corp (+0.82%) gained. Tesla's trend turned sharply negative, Apple Inc.'s remained deeply negative, while Microsoft's improved to positive.
The significant variance underscores high sensitivity to specific news and prevailing themes like AI. Tesla’s drop highlights company-specific risks, questioning the recent leadership of some major growth stocks.
U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Prospects for corporate earnings and inflation improved, with earnings shifting to positive and inflation stabilizing to neutral from prior negative assessments. However, consumer strength evaluation softened to neutral, and the investment duration outlook stayed negative.
These contrasting signals paint a complex picture. Improving corporate health and moderating inflation are positive, but potential labor market cooling and consumer caution, ahead of jobs data, warrant attention.
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Industrials stood out as its trend strengthened to strongly positive. Conversely, Energy's trend deteriorated further, and Healthcare's weakened to negative. Information Technology (-0.28%) and Materials saw some stabilization in their trends despite modest daily moves.
Sector performance is selective. Industrials show optimism, but persistent Energy weakness and Healthcare's downturn are concerns. Upcoming employment data will be critical in shaping sector outlooks.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Global markets were largely positive, with European Union (+0.10%) and United Kingdom trends remaining strongly positive, buoyed by U.S.-China trade talk optimism and ECB actions. Key Asian markets also held firm, though Japan’s positive trend moderated and India’s remained negative.
The general strength, especially in developed markets, suggests a positive global investor sentiment. However, regional divergences persist, and sustained strength may depend on the U.S. economic trajectory.
OTHER ASSETS
Gold (-0.50%) dipped but its trend improved to positive, while Crude Oil (+0.85%) gained, maintaining a neutral trend. Bitcoin (-2.97%) declined. 1-3 Year Treasury Bonds (-0.11%) remained neutral.
Gold's improving trend suggests a search for safety. Oil's indecisive trend and neutral short-term Treasuries reflect a wait-and-see approach from investors, likely pending clearer economic signals from upcoming jobs data.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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