強韌的勞動市場推升股市，但公債殖利率上揚，顯示美國聯準會或將保持耐心，挑戰投資者對未來政策寬鬆時機的信心Joe 盧, CFA 2025年6月6日 美東時間重點摘要優於預期的5月份就業報告推動了股市全面上漲，並推高公債殖利率，顯示美國聯準會可以對降息保持耐心。美國主要指數動能有所改善，標普500指數和那斯達克綜合指數趨勢轉為正向，儘管大型科技股的領漲表現不一。關鍵經濟訊號證實消費者信心強勁，與健康的勞動數據一致，而長天期資產的極度負面展望則反映了殖利率上升的壓力。金融類股出現顯著的看漲反轉，工業類股力道加速，顯示投資者對市場中對經濟敏感的領域重拾信心。國際市場持續走強，歐洲領先，對中國的市場情緒轉趨樂觀，顯示全球股市表現範圍擴大。殖利率上升導致各天期債券價格下跌，並對黃金構成壓力，而比特幣和原油則上漲，凸顯了在貨幣政策前景轉變下跨資產類別的反應。市場概覽美國就業報告優於預期，為市場注入樂觀情緒，推動股市全面上漲，並強化了美國經濟強韌的市場觀點。報告顯示，5月份非農業就業人口增加了13.9萬人，超出預期，表明勞動市場依然穩固。這項經濟正面訊號迅速帶動股市上漲，標普500指數十一大類股全數收紅，但也向債券投資者發出了明確訊息：美國聯準會沒有迫切理由降息。然而，勞動數據的細節揭示出更為複雜的面向。儘管5月份的總體數據強勁，但前兩個月的就業人數向下修正共計減少了9.5萬個工作機會，削弱了報告的部分亮點。此外，失業率連續第三個月持平於4.2%，未見改善。在這樣的數據背景下，公債殖利率攀升，10年期公債殖利率回升至4.5%附近；因投資者重新調整了對貨幣政策的預期，目前推測聯準會將更具耐心。此一變化正值美股第一季財報季強勁收尾之際，該季度為股市提供了基本面的利多。標普500指數成分股公司公布了亮眼的業績，近80%的公司超出分析師預期。儘管全年企業獲利成長預估有所放緩，但仍指向一個具建設性的背景。目前投資者面臨的關鍵問題在於，如何在企業盈餘表現穩健與勞動市場持續強勁的同時，調整策略以因應短期內降息前景似乎正在消退的政策環境。整體市場指數正面的就業報告為美國主要股市指數帶來顯著提振，市場普遍出現買盤壓力。標普500指數(+1.03%)和那斯達克綜合指數(+0.98%)不僅在表現上領先，在市場情緒上亦然。過去一週，這兩大主要指數的量化指標趨勢均有所改善，從中性轉為正向，顯示在一段盤整期後，上漲動能正在增強。此重新增強的力道顯示投資者將強韌的勞動市場解讀為對企業獲利和經濟前景的淨利多，暫時蓋過了對延後降息的擔憂。道瓊工業平均指數(+1.04%)亦上漲，但仍處於中性趨勢，表明其尚未形成與整體市場同樣明確的上漲信心。與此同時，以羅素2000指數(+1.62%)為代表的小型股趨勢則從負面改善至中性，中止了近期的跌勢，但在整體復甦中仍顯落後。美國十大企業市值居前的幾家企業巨頭表現明顯分歧，突顯即使大盤整體上漲，投資者情緒仍顯得不一。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co)(+1.44%)和Meta (Meta Platforms Inc)(+1.91%)的正面動能加速，而微軟(Microsoft Corp)(+0.58%)則維持其強勁的正向趨勢。相較之下，博通(Broadcom Inc)(-5.00%)卻大幅下跌，顯示在當前估值偏高的背景下，投資人對績優股的預期極高，稍有不如預期即可能導致股價大幅回落。最重要的觀察點是某些大型股持續疲弱，這可能對市場構成拖累。蘋果(Apple Inc)(+1.64%)和特斯拉(Tesla Inc)(+3.67%)雖然單日均錄得上漲，但仍深陷負面的長期趨勢，顯示這些反彈可能只是暫時的喘息，而非真正的反轉。這些巨頭的表現突顯了投資者面臨的一個關鍵問題：如果市場中一些規模最大、最具影響力的成分股持續面臨重大不利因素，市場能否維持整體的上漲？美國經濟指標我們對潛在經濟驅動因素的分析，與週五就業報告所呈現的景象高度一致，描繪出消費者信心強勁，但固定收益資產持續面臨不利因素的局面。消費者信心的訊號依然強勁且有所改善，突顯了支撐勞動市場超出預期放緩的韌性。這為經濟和企業獲利提供了基本支柱，使投資者對整體前景抱持信心。相對而言，投資存續期間的訊號依然呈現強烈負面，直接反映了殖利率上升對債券造成的壓力。穩健的就業數據強化了利率「長期維持高檔」的環境，使得長天期資產吸引力下降。其他方面，企業獲利的前景已從負面穩定至中性，而通膨訊號亦改善至中性。這顯示儘管短期風險有所減緩，但在這些領域出現新的正向循環的明確催化因素尚未浮現。產業類股總覽週五的漲勢因其廣度而引人注目，在令人鼓舞的經濟數據推動下，標普500指數各大類股全數收高。能源類股(+1.88%)和通訊服務類股(+1.28%)是當日領漲者之一。最重要的發展是金融類股(+1.24%)出現戲劇性的看漲反轉，其量化指標從一週前的負面轉為目前的強勁正向。這顯示投資者對銀行和金融產業的情緒發生了顯著且正面的轉變。資金輪動至對經濟敏感的類股，意味著市場對經濟擴張持久性的信心增強。工業類股(+0.84%)的趨勢亦有所增強，證實了該週期性類股的樂觀前景正在加速。然而，並非所有類股都展現出明確的領漲態勢。資訊科技類股(+0.94%)和原物料類股(+0.26%)在近期疲弱的表現後僅能穩定至中性趨勢。此種分歧對投資組合配置提出了一個關鍵問題：這究竟是週期性類股持續領漲的開始，還是科技股和成長股將重新主導市場？國際市場正面動能已擴展至美國以外的市場，數個主要國際市場展現出持續的強勁勢頭。歐盟(+0.27%)和英國持續呈現強勁且穩定的正向趨勢，使它們位居全球領先地位。日本(+0.59%)亦維持其強勁的正向基礎，強化了該市場既有的上升趨勢。樂觀情緒似乎正在擴大。最顯著的轉變發生在新興市場。中國(-0.13%)的量化分析趨勢在過去一週轉為正向，較先前中性立場有顯著改善，顯示投資者信心可能正在回歸。同樣地，拉丁美洲(+0.35%)的前景亦轉為正向，預示該地區可能迎來新的上漲週期。這與印度(+1.35%)形成對比，該國趨勢在經歷一段負面時期後僅穩定至中性。整體啟示在於，全球投資機會會有擴大的趨勢，但區域差異化仍是關鍵考量。其他資產強勁的美國就業報告及其對美國聯準會政策的影響，波及了各類資產。隨著殖利率上升推低價格，固定收益市場承受巨大壓力。這在1-3年期美國公債(-0.17%)、7-10年期美國公債(-0.80%)和20年期以上美國公債(-1.27%)的表現中顯而易見，其中長天期債券跌幅最大。此種風險偏好情緒，加上美元走強，亦對貴金屬構成壓力，黃金當日下跌(-1.34%)。相較之下，通常受益於經濟樂觀情緒和流動性的資產則表現良好。原油上漲(+2.07%)，反映了對需求穩定的預期。與此同時，比特幣維持其強勁漲勢，上漲(+2.40%)，似乎不受總體經濟不利因素的影響。此價格走勢突顯出市場目前更關注經濟成長，而非貨幣寬鬆的短期前景。保持聯繫並分享見解：若您覺得本文有幫助，請點讚支持。歡迎將此電子報轉發給可能覺得有價值的同事和朋友。訂閱即可直接在您的收件匣中收到此分析。在社群媒體上關注我們以獲取更多更新。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。 Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。 Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。Solid Jobs Report Fuels Broad Market Rally, Pushing Rate Cut Expectations Further OutA resilient labor market powers equities higher, but rising Treasury yields signal the Federal Reserve may remain patient, challenging investor conviction on the timing of future policy easing.By Joe 盧, CFA As of June 6, 2025EXECUTIVE SUMMARYA stronger-than-expected May jobs report propelled a broad-based equity rally and pushed Treasury yields higher, suggesting the Federal Reserve can remain patient on rate cuts.Major U.S. indices saw momentum improve, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shifting to a positive trend, though leadership from megacap technology stocks was mixed.Key economic signals confirm robust consumer strength, aligning with the healthy labor data, while a strongly negative outlook for long-duration assets reflects rising yield pressures.A significant bullish reversal in the Financials sector and accelerating strength in Industrials signal renewed investor confidence in economically sensitive areas of the market.International markets showed continued strength, with Europe leading and sentiment toward China turning positive, indicating a broadening of global equity performance.Rising yields drove bond prices lower across the curve and weighed on Gold, while Bitcoin and Crude Oil advanced, highlighting cross-asset reactions to the shifting monetary policy outlook.MARKET OVERVIEWA better-than-expected U.S. jobs report sent a wave of optimism through markets, fueling a broad equity rally and reinforcing the narrative of a resilient American economy. The report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 139,000 in May, surpassing expectations and suggesting the labor market remains on solid footing. This sign of economic health immediately sparked a rally in stocks, with all eleven S&P 500 sectors closing in positive territory, but it also sent a clear message to bond investors: the Federal Reserve has little reason to rush into interest-rate cuts.The underlying details of the labor data, however, add a layer of complexity. While the May headline number was strong, downward revisions to payrolls for the prior two months trimmed a total of 95,000 jobs, taking some of the shine off the report. Furthermore, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% for the third straight month. In response to the data, Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year yield pushing back toward 4.5% as investors recalibrated their expectations for monetary policy, now pricing in a more patient Fed.This dynamic comes as a very strong first-quarter earnings season concludes, having provided a fundamental tailwind for equities. Companies in the S&P 500 posted impressive results, with nearly 80% beating analyst expectations. While full-year earnings growth estimates have moderated, they still point to a constructive backdrop. The key question for investors now is how to balance this solid corporate performance and a healthy labor market against a policy environment where the prospect of near-term rate relief appears to be fading.BROAD INDICESThe positive jobs report provided a significant lift to major U.S. equity indices, with buying pressure seen across the market. The S&P 500 Index (+1.03%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.98%) led the way, not only in performance but also in sentiment. The trend for both major indices improved over the past week, shifting from neutral to positive and signaling that upward momentum is building after a period of consolidation.This renewed strength suggests investors are interpreting the resilient labor market as a net positive for corporate earnings and the economic outlook, outweighing concerns about delayed rate cuts for now. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.04%) also gained but remains in a neutral trend, indicating it has not yet developed the same clear upward conviction as the broader market. Meanwhile, the trend for small-cap stocks, as represented by the Russell 2000 Index (+1.62%), improved from negative to neutral, halting its recent slide but still lagging in the overall recovery.TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIESPerformance among the market's largest companies was decidedly mixed, highlighting a divergence in investor sentiment despite the broad rally. Positive momentum accelerated for JPMorgan Chase & Co (+1.44%) and Meta Platforms Inc (+1.91%), while Microsoft Corp (+0.58%) maintained its powerful positive trend. This strength was offset by a sharp decline in Broadcom Inc (-5.00%), which fell despite reporting results that narrowly beat estimates, a sign that investors demand exceptional performance to justify high valuations.The most significant takeaway is the persistent weakness in certain megacap names, which could act as a drag on the market. Apple Inc (+1.64%) and Tesla Inc (+3.67%) both saw daily gains but remain locked in deeply negative long-term trends, suggesting these bounces may be temporary relief rather than a true reversal. The performance of these giants underscores a key question for investors: can the market sustain a broad advance if some of its largest and most influential components continue to face significant headwinds?ECONOMIC INDICATORSOur analysis of underlying economic drivers aligns closely with the narrative from Friday's jobs report, painting a picture of a robust consumer but with persistent headwinds for fixed-income assets. The signal for consumer strength remains strong and has improved, underscoring the resilience that is allowing the labor market to defy slowdown expectations. This provides a fundamental pillar of support for the economy and corporate earnings, giving investors confidence in the broader outlook.Conversely, the indicator for investment duration remains strongly negative, a direct reflection of the pressure on bonds from rising yields. The solid jobs data has reinforced the "higher for longer" interest rate environment, making long-duration assets less attractive. Elsewhere, the outlook for corporate earnings has stabilized from negative to neutral, while the inflation signal has also improved to neutral. This suggests that while near-term risks have abated, a clear catalyst for a new positive cycle in these areas has not yet emerged.SECTOR OVERVIEWFriday’s rally was notable for its breadth, as every S&P 500 sector finished higher, powered by the encouraging economic data. Energy (+1.88%) and Communication Services (+1.28%) were among the day's leaders. The most important development was a dramatic bullish reversal in the Financials sector (+1.24%), which shifted from a negative trend a week ago to a strongly positive one now. This suggests a significant and positive change in investor sentiment toward the banking and finance industries.This rotation into economically sensitive sectors implies growing conviction in the durability of the economic expansion. The trend for Industrials (+0.84%) also strengthened, confirming an accelerating positive outlook for that cyclical group. However, not all sectors are showing clear leadership. Information Technology (+0.94%) and Materials (+0.26%) have only managed to stabilize into a neutral trend after recent weakness. This divergence poses a key question for portfolio allocation: is this the beginning of sustained leadership from cyclical sectors, or will technology and growth reassert dominance?INTERNATIONAL MARKETSPositive momentum extends beyond the U.S., with several key international markets demonstrating persistent strength. The European Union (+0.27%) and the United Kingdom continue to exhibit powerful and stable positive trends, positioning them as global leaders. Japan (+0.59%) also maintains its strong positive footing, reinforcing the established uptrend in that market. The positive sentiment appears to be broadening.The most notable shifts occurred in emerging markets. The trend for China (-0.13%) turned positive over the past week, a significant improvement from its previous neutral stance that suggests investor confidence may be returning. Likewise, Latin America (+0.35%) saw its outlook shift to positive, signaling a potential new upswing for the region. This contrasts with India (+1.35%), where the trend has only stabilized to neutral after a period of negativity. The key implication is that investment opportunities may be broadening globally, but regional differentiation remains crucial.OTHER ASSETSThe impact of the strong U.S. jobs report and its implications for Federal Reserve policy reverberated across asset classes. Fixed-income markets came under significant pressure as rising yields pushed prices lower. This was evident in the performance of 1-3 Year Treasury Bonds (-0.17%), 7-10 Year Treasury Bonds (-0.80%), and 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (-1.27%), with longer-dated bonds seeing the steepest declines.This risk-on sentiment, combined with a stronger U.S. dollar, also weighed on precious metals, with Gold falling (-1.34%) on the day. In contrast, assets that typically thrive on economic optimism and liquidity performed well. Crude Oil gained (+2.07%), reflecting expectations of steady demand. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continued its strong run, rising (+2.40%) as it seemingly shrugged off macroeconomic headwinds. This price action underscores the market's current focus on economic growth over the immediate prospect of monetary easing.Stay Connected & Share the Insights:Like this article if you found it helpful.Forward this newsletter to colleagues and friends who might find it valuable.Subscribe to receive this analysis directly to your inbox.Follow us on social media for more updates.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.Join the official LINE account of "Joe’s Wall Street Pulse" now to receive the latest column updates (click here to join)