【Joe’s華爾街脈動】市場屏息！通膨壓過貿易談判樂觀情緒？

週期性輪動暗示審慎樂觀，投資者信心等待明確催化訊號

Joe 盧, CFA 2025年6月10日 美東時間

重點摘要

• 全球市場盤整，投資者在權衡富有成效但細節模糊的美中貿易談判，以及為明日關鍵的CPI通膨報告進行倉位調整。
• 在半導體指數穩定領漲的帶動下，美國主要指數小幅走高，儘管整體趨勢的改善仍然脆弱。
• 大型股的領導地位正在分裂，Meta和亞馬遜(Amazon)的強勢與蘋果(Apple)的持續疲弱以及波克夏海瑟威(Berkshire Hathaway)新的負面訊號形成鮮明對比。
• 企業獲利前景改善提供了基本面支撐，儘管受到消費者力道趨緩跡象和長天期資產熊市展望的抑制。
• 資金正顯著輪動至週期性類股，金融、工業和通訊服務類股均展現不斷增強的正向趨勢。
• 全球格局依然分歧，歐盟展現卓越強勢，而亞洲和拉丁美洲的動能則顯得較為混雜和不確定。
• 在CPI數據公布前，美國公債出現短期買盤，但長期持續的負面趨勢顯示市場對殖利率走高抱有強烈的潛在預期。

市場概覽

全球市場目前呈現盤整格局，在持續進行的美中貿易談判帶來的審慎樂觀情緒，與關鍵通膨報告逼近的現實之間取得微妙平衡。美國股市收盤小幅走高，但由於談判缺乏具體進展，壓抑進一步的上行動能。這種「觀望」態度同樣反映在債券市場——投資者在明日CPI數據公布前調整倉位，而歐洲和亞洲市場則呈現漲跌互見的走勢。市場方向目前取決於政策面是否出現具突破性的催化因素，足以打破目前這種等待與謹慎的態勢。

整體市場指數

在貿易談判樂觀情緒的帶動下，費城半導體指數(+2.08%)和那斯達克綜合指數(+0.66%)引領美國指數上揚。儘管標普500指數和那斯達克指數維持其領導地位，但更具意義的變化在於，先前滯漲的半導體類股和小型股趨於穩定。這顯示漲勢可能正在擴大，但此改善仍屬脆弱，需要進一步的正面催化劑出現，才能轉化為更具延續性的上行動能。

美國十大企業

大型股的領導地位正在分裂，各公司表現高度分歧。特斯拉(Tesla)在正面消息帶動下飆升(+5.67%)，而蘋果(Apple)的困境則持續。值得注意的是，我們的分析顯示Meta和亞馬遜(Amazon)的動能正在增強，但波克夏海瑟威(Berkshire Hathaway)則出現新的負面趨勢。此種領導族群的收窄，加上主要指標股的疲弱，引發了對市場潛在健康狀況的質疑，以及剩餘的強勢股能否獨力支撐指數。

美國經濟指標

當前經濟前景呈現複雜局面。一方面，企業獲利前景改善和通膨評估趨緩提供了基本面支撐。另一方面，此樂觀情緒被潛在趨緩的消費者以及長天期資產的深度負面訊號所抵銷。此種脫節使得即將公布的CPI數據肩負重任，需要釐清這些矛盾的訊號並闡明美國聯準會的政策路徑，使其成為市場的關鍵轉折點。

產業類股總覽

資金明顯輪動至週期性類股，顯示投資者的信心正擴展至科技股以外的領域。能源類股(+1.78%)和非必需消費品類股(+1.20%)引領當日漲幅，此一走勢獲得我們分析的證實：金融、工業和通訊服務類股的趨勢均已增強至非常正向。此種向對經濟敏感領域的擴展，是此波漲勢持久性的健康跡象，但這個新的領導族群現在必須證明其動能具備可持續性。

國際市場

全球格局依舊呈現分歧。歐盟、英國和澳洲展現出異常強勁且持續加速的正向動能，確立了明確的領導地位。相較之下，亞洲市場則較為混雜，中國和台灣的初期復甦被新加坡和拉丁美洲動能的放緩所抵銷。在此背景下，投資策略需更趨審慎與選擇性，因為新興市場復甦的持久性並無保證，且仍然容易受到全球貿易政策轉變的影響。

其他資產

美國公債小幅上漲，20年期以上美國公債上漲(+0.48%)，因投資者為明日的通膨報告進行倉位調整。然而，這一日的買盤活動與我們對整個殖利率曲線持續的長期負面趨勢評估直接矛盾，後者顯示市場對殖利率走高抱有更深層的預期。這突顯了典型的短期與長期之間的拉鋸。與此同時，黃金持續的正向趨勢表明，儘管股市走強，但對避險資產的潛在需求依然存在。

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Market Holds Its Breath: Trade Talk Hopes Tempered by Looming Inflation Data

Investor conviction awaits a definitive catalyst as cyclical rotation suggests cautious optimism.

By Joe 盧, CFA As of June 10, 2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Global markets treaded water as investors weighed productive but vague U.S.-China trade talks against positioning for tomorrow's critical CPI inflation report.
• Major U.S. indices edged higher, led by a stabilizing semiconductor index, though the broader trend improvement remains fragile.
• Mega-cap leadership is fracturing, with strength in Meta and Amazon contrasting sharply with continued weakness in Apple and a new negative signal for Berkshire Hathaway.
• An improving corporate earnings outlook provides fundamental support, though it is tempered by signs of a moderating consumer and a bearish outlook for long-duration assets.
• A significant rotation into cyclical sectors is underway, with Financials, Industrials, and Communication Services all demonstrating strengthening positive trends.
• The global landscape remains bifurcated, with the European Union showing exceptional strength while momentum in Asia and Latin America appears more mixed and uncertain.
• Treasury bonds saw short-term buying ahead of the CPI data, but the persistent long-term negative trend signals a strong underlying conviction for higher yields.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Global markets are in a holding pattern, balancing cautious optimism from ongoing U.S.-China trade talks against the looming reality of a key inflation report. U.S. equities closed modestly higher, but the lack of concrete details from negotiations kept any significant rally in check. This "wait-and-see" approach was reflected in the bond market, where investors positioned ahead of tomorrow’s CPI release, and in mixed results from European and Asian markets. The market's direction now hinges on whether policy catalysts can provide a decisive break from this state of anticipation.

BROAD INDICES

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+2.08%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.66%) led U.S. indices higher amid optimism over trade talks. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq maintain their leadership roles, the key development is the stabilization in previously lagging semiconductors and small-caps. This suggests a potential broadening of the rally, but the improvement is fragile and requires a positive catalyst to transform into sustainable positive momentum.

TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES

Mega-cap leadership is fracturing, with performance diverging sharply. Tesla surged (+5.67%) on positive news flow, while Apple’s struggles continued. Significantly, our analysis shows building momentum for Meta and Amazon, but a new negative trend for Berkshire Hathaway. This narrowing of leadership, combined with weakness in major bellwethers, raises questions about the market’s underlying health and whether the remaining strong performers can continue to carry the indices alone.

U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The economic picture is complex, with an improving corporate earnings outlook and moderating inflation assessment providing fundamental support. This optimism is countered by a potentially slowing consumer and a deeply negative signal for long-duration assets. This disconnect places enormous weight on the upcoming CPI data to resolve the conflicting signals and clarify the Federal Reserve’s path, making it a critical inflection point for the market.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

A significant rotation into cyclical sectors signals expanding investor confidence beyond just technology. Energy (+1.78%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.20%) led daily gains, a move confirmed by our analysis showing trends for Financials, Industrials, and Communication Services have all strengthened to strongly positive. This broadening into economically sensitive areas is a healthy sign for the rally’s durability, but this new leadership must now prove it is sustainable.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

The global landscape remains bifurcated. The European Union, United Kingdom, and Australia show exceptionally strong and accelerating positive momentum, confirming clear leadership. In contrast, Asia is more mixed, with a nascent recovery in China and Taiwan offset by faltering momentum in Singapore and Latin America. This divergence demands a selective approach, as the durability of emerging recoveries is not guaranteed and remains vulnerable to shifts in global trade policy.

OTHER ASSETS

Treasury bonds gained modestly, with 20+ Year Treasuries up (+0.48%), as investors positioned for tomorrow’s inflation report. However, this daily buying activity directly contradicts our persistent, long-term negative trend assessment across the entire curve, which signals a deeper conviction for higher yields. This highlights a classic short-term vs. long-term tension. Meanwhile, Gold's continued positive trend suggests that despite equity strength, underlying demand for safe-haven assets persists.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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