【Joe’s華爾街脈動】通膨數據帶動股市反彈，但潛在分歧隱現

疲弱的生產者物價與穩定的就業數據提振股市和債市，然而市場不同類股間的表現差異顯示投資者格局具選擇性

Joe 盧, CFA 2025/06/12 美東時間

重點摘要

• 因生產者物價通膨低於預期蓋過了貿易擔憂，美國股市上漲，帶動股市和債市雙雙反彈。
• 標普500指數等大型股指數維持正向趨勢，而小型股在近期表現不佳後出現穩定跡象。
• 頂尖企業間的表現高度分歧，部分科技股走強與其他領域的疲弱形成對比，突顯市場對個別公司基本面的關注。
• 通膨趨緩，加上降溫但仍健康的勞動市場，強化了市場的「軟著陸」論述，為美國聯準會提供了持續的政策彈性。
• 防禦型的公用事業類股領漲當日，但週期性的金融類股潛在趨勢顯著增強，顯示投資者前景複雜且細緻。
• 歐洲和日本等主要國際市場維持強勁的正向趨勢，不受每日負面頭條新聞影響，展現潛在韌性。
• 在殖利率下滑和美元走弱的背景下，黃金和長天期美國公債上漲，而比特幣則下跌。

市場概覽

週四美股上漲，主要受惠於經濟數據顯示通膨壓力可能逐步緩解，以及勞動市場仍具韌性但出現些微降溫。5月份生產者物價通膨數據低於市場預期，提振了投資者對通膨趨緩趨勢依然存在的樂觀情緒。此種情緒蓋過了市場對美中貿易細節尚不明朗，以及每週初請領失業金人數偏高所引發的持續擔憂，使得公用事業和科技等類股引領市場走高。
樂觀情緒亦延伸至債券市場，美國殖利率持續走低。10年期美國公債殖利率收低於4.36%，而30年期美國公債的強勁標售結果顯示投資者對長天期政府公債需求旺盛。固定收益市場的反應進一步強化了市場對當日通膨數據的正面解讀。美元兌其他主要貨幣亦走弱，進一步營造了有利的市場環境。
相較之下，國際市場氛圍則較為謹慎。歐洲股市下跌，旅遊相關類股表現不佳。亞洲市場亦普遍收低，因投資者正在評估美中新協議中有關放寬出口管制所帶來的潛在影響。此外，由於市場持續關注中東的地緣政治緊張局勢，原油價格相對穩定。

整體市場指數

在最新通膨報告發布後所帶動的樂觀情緒支撐下，美國主要股市基準指數上揚。標普500指數(+0.40%)和那斯達克綜合指數(+0.23%)上漲，我們的分析證實兩者的正向趨勢依然穩固。相較之下，代表小型股的羅素2000指數則下跌(-0.40%)，儘管其潛在趨勢在過去一週已從先前的負面評估顯著改善至中性。
大型股指數的持續走強，再次突顯了市場領導地位的主題。當前的關鍵在於，通膨降溫和勞動市場所構建的健康經濟背景，是否足以將市場參與度擴及至小型股和其他落後板塊。此表現差距仍然是觀察市場能否出現更持久、全面性上漲的重要指標。

美國十大企業

市場上市值最大的幾家企業表現分歧，反映了產業間資金輪動與內部結構的交錯影響。微軟(Microsoft Corp)(+1.32%)等科技龍頭上漲，而特斯拉(Tesla Inc)(-2.24%)則顯著落後。這些巨擘的潛在趨勢評估則呈現明顯分歧；微軟(Microsoft)和Meta (Meta Platforms Inc)持續展現非常強勁的正面動能，而蘋果(Apple Inc)則仍深陷負面趨勢。
此種兩極化現象突顯出投資者並非盲目買入大型股，而是專注於特定的基本面題材。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co)等公司正面動能的增強，進一步強調了此種差異化主題。此環境顯示，個別公司的前景正成為比整體市場曝險更為關鍵的績效驅動因素。

美國經濟指標

近期數據描繪出一幅美國經濟正在逐步降溫但尚未出現崩跌的景象。最新的生產者物價報告(PPI)顯示漲幅低於預期，進一步支持了通膨持續趨緩的觀點。儘管如此，我們對通膨的潛在評估已回到負面基礎，顯示潛在壓力仍是隱憂。與此同時，穩定的初請領失業金人數表明勞動市場雖略有趨緩但仍屬健康，支持了消費者信心持續正向的展望。
通膨趨緩與勞動市場逐步降溫的組合，為金融資產提供了一個複雜但可能具建設性的背景。此情境支持了近期債券殖利率的下滑，並為美國聯準會提供了政策彈性。關鍵問題是，此「軟著陸」的論點能否持續，使風險性資產在不引發更顯著經濟放緩的情況下得以維持良好表現。

產業類股總覽

在類股表現方面，防禦型類股領漲，儘管週期性趨勢顯示潛在改善跡象。公用事業類股是當日表現最佳族群之一(+1.21%)，其潛在趨勢近期已增強至非常正向。相較之下，通訊服務類股當日表現落後(-0.81%)，儘管其長期趨勢仍然是所有類股中最具韌性的之一。我們的分析亦顯示金融類股的趨勢在過去一週有顯著改善，其走勢已轉為非常正向。
公用事業等防禦型類股與金融等週期性類股同時展現上漲動能，描繪出一幅結構細緻的市場輪動格局。這表明投資者正在分散風險，同時為潛在的經濟放緩及持續的經濟韌性進行佈局。這種類股間的雙軌領漲現象，引發了一個關鍵問題：哪一種論述最終將主導市場的領導地位？

國際市場

國際市場大多走低，即使數個關鍵領域的潛在趨勢依然正面，但仍受到區域性不利因素的抑制。歐洲市場下跌，然而我們的分析顯示，整體歐盟市場依舊維持強勁且持續的正向趨勢。同樣地，由於投資者評估新的美中貿易協議，亞洲市場亦表現疲弱，但日本和香港等市場的前景依然明確看好。
本輪行情的關鍵的啟示，在於短期市場情緒與長期趨勢之間的分歧。儘管地緣政治發展可能驅動每日表現，但主要地區持續的正向趨勢表明基本面的利多因素依然存在。拉丁美洲亦出現顯著改善，其趨勢已轉為非常正向，顯示國際市場的強勢正在擴大。

其他資產

在通膨降溫和美元走弱的預期推動下，另類資產獲得明顯支撐。黃金錄得穩健漲幅(+1.24%)，受惠於美國公債殖利率和美元雙雙下跌。對存續期間的需求亦在債券市場中顯現，長天期美國公債在強勁的標售結果帶動下上漲。相較之下，數位資產領域則表現疲弱，比特幣下跌(-1.84%)。
黃金等傳統避險資產與長天期債券同步上漲，顯示投資者對總體經濟數據做出明確反應。此引發的關鍵問題是，這究竟是短期的策略性交易，還是對這些資產更持久配置的開始。如果市場持續預期「軟著陸」的情境，這些資產可能會繼續獲得支撐。

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Inflation Data Fuels Stock Rally, But Divergence Looms Below the Surface

Softer producer prices and steady jobs boost equities and bonds, yet performance gaps between market segments signal a selective investor landscape.

By Joe 盧, CFA As of: 2025/06/12

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• U.S. stocks advanced as softer-than-expected producer price inflation overshadowed trade concerns, fueling a rally in both equities and bonds.
• Large-cap indices like the S&P 500 maintained a firm positive trend, while small caps showed signs of stabilization after recent underperformance.
• Performance among top companies was highly divergent, with strength in some technology names contrasting with weakness elsewhere, highlighting a focus on individual company fundamentals.
• Moderating inflation and a cooling but healthy labor market reinforced the market’s "soft landing" narrative, providing the Federal Reserve with continued flexibility.
• Defensive Utilities led daily gains, but a significant strengthening in the underlying trend for cyclical Financials points to a complex and nuanced investor outlook.
• Major international markets like Europe and Japan maintained strong positive trends, shrugging off negative daily headlines and demonstrating underlying resilience.
• Gold and long-duration Treasury bonds rallied on the back of falling yields and a weaker U.S. dollar, while Bitcoin experienced a decline.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Equity markets advanced on Thursday, buoyed by economic data suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures and a stable, albeit cooling, labor market. Softer-than-expected producer price inflation data for May fueled investor optimism that the disinflationary trend remains intact. This sentiment overshadowed ongoing concerns about the specifics of the U.S.-China trade framework and elevated weekly jobless claims, allowing sectors like Utilities and Technology to lead the market higher.

The positive mood extended to the bond market, where yields continued their recent decline. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield settled lower at 4.36%, and a strong auction for 30-year Treasury bonds signaled robust investor demand for long-duration government debt. This reaction in the fixed-income space reinforces the market's favorable interpretation of the day's inflation data. The U.S. dollar also weakened against other major currencies, further contributing to a supportive environment.

In contrast, international markets displayed a more cautious tone. European equities declined, with travel-related stocks underperforming. Asian markets also closed broadly lower as investors weighed the implications of a new agreement between the U.S. and China aimed at easing export controls. Elsewhere, crude oil prices remained relatively stable as the market continues to monitor geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

BROAD INDICES

Major U.S. equity benchmarks advanced, supported by optimism following the latest inflation report. The S&P 500 Index (+0.40%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.23%) gained, with our analysis confirming their positive trends remain firm. In contrast, the Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies declined (-0.40%), though its underlying trend has notably improved to neutral over the past week from a prior negative assessment.

The sustained strength in large-cap indices underscores a persistent theme of market leadership. The key question now is whether the economic backdrop of cooling inflation and a healthy labor market is sufficient to broaden market participation into small caps and other lagging segments. The performance gap remains a crucial dynamic to monitor for signs of a more durable market-wide advance.

TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES

Performance among the market’s largest companies was mixed, reflecting broader sector crosscurrents. Technology leaders like Microsoft Corp (+1.32%) gained, while Tesla Inc (-2.24%) was a notable laggard. The underlying trend assessments for these giants are starkly divergent; Microsoft and Meta Platforms Inc continue to exhibit very strong positive momentum, while Apple Inc remains locked in a deeply negative trend.

This bifurcation highlights that investors are not buying megacaps indiscriminately but are focusing on specific fundamental stories. The strengthening positive momentum for a company like JPMorgan Chase & Co further emphasizes this theme of differentiation. This environment suggests that individual company prospects are becoming more critical drivers of performance than broad market exposure.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Recent data portrays a U.S. economy that is cooling but not collapsing. The latest report on producer prices, which rose less than forecast, reinforces the view that inflation continues to moderate. Despite this, our underlying assessment for inflation has returned to a negative footing, suggesting potential pressures remain a concern. Meanwhile, steady jobless claims point to a labor market that is losing some tightness but remains healthy, supporting a consistently positive outlook for consumer strength.

The combination of moderating inflation and a gradually cooling labor market provides a complex but potentially constructive backdrop for financial assets. This scenario supports the recent decline in bond yields and provides the Federal Reserve with flexibility. The key question is whether this "soft landing" narrative can be sustained, allowing risk assets to perform without triggering a more significant economic slowdown.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

Sector performance was led by defensive areas, even as cyclical trends show underlying improvement. The Utilities sector was a top performer (+1.21%), and its underlying trend has recently strengthened to strongly positive. In contrast, Communication Services lagged for the day (-0.81%), though its long-term trend remains one of the strongest across all sectors. Our analysis also shows a significant improvement in the trend for Financials, which has shifted to strongly positive over the past week.

The simultaneous leadership from a defensive sector like Utilities and the strengthening momentum in a cyclical sector like Financials creates a nuanced picture. It suggests investors are hedging their bets, positioning for both a potential slowdown and continued economic resilience. This dynamic raises the question of which narrative will ultimately dictate market leadership.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

International markets traded mostly lower, reacting to regional headwinds even as underlying trends in several key areas remain positive. European markets declined, yet our analysis shows the broader European Union maintains a very strong and persistent positive trend. Similarly, Asian markets were weaker as investors assessed a new U.S.-China trade agreement, but the outlook for markets like Japan and Hong Kong remains decidedly positive.

The key takeaway is the divergence between short-term sentiment and longer-term trends. While geopolitical developments can drive daily performance, the persistent positive trends in major regions suggest that fundamental tailwinds are still in place. A notable improvement has also been registered in Latin America, where the trend has shifted to strongly positive, indicating a broadening of international market strength.

OTHER ASSETS

The narrative of cooling inflation and a weaker U.S. dollar provided a strong tailwind for alternative assets. Gold posted a solid gain (+1.24%), benefiting from the decline in both Treasury yields and the dollar. The demand for duration was also evident in the bond market, where longer-term Treasuries rallied, reflecting strong auction results. In contrast, the digital asset space saw weakness, with Bitcoin declining (-1.84%).

The rally in traditional safe-haven assets like gold alongside long-duration bonds points to a clear investor reaction to the macroeconomic data. The key question this raises is whether this is a short-term tactical trade or the beginning of a more sustained allocation toward these assets. If the market continues to price in a "soft landing" scenario, these assets may continue to find support.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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