【Joe’s華爾街脈動】地緣政治緊張局勢升溫，避險情緒籠罩市場

投資者因中東地緣風險而湧向避險資產，推升油價、壓低股市，類股趨勢急劇分化

Joe 盧, CFA 2025年6月17日 美東時間

重點摘要

• 地緣政治升溫引發市場避險潮，導致股市下跌、油價上漲、債券殖利率上升，市場目前全面關注美國聯準會即將公布的政策預測。
• 道瓊工業平均指數和羅素2000指數的前景惡化，整體市場趨勢出現分歧，而標普500指數和那斯達克綜合指數的趨勢則保持強韌的正向。
• 儘管出現拋售，大型股的趨勢評估仍然穩定，顯示投資者對長期領導者的信心並未因當日的總體經濟波動而動搖。
• 企業獲利前景惡化與持續強勁的消費者數據形成衝突，為政策制定者營造了矛盾的經濟局面。
• 類股趨勢出現分化，能源類股改善，而必需消費品和醫療保健等傳統防禦型類股卻轉弱，顯示市場對通膨衝擊的擔憂勝過經濟放緩。
• 全球國際市場趨勢普遍轉弱，新興市場轉為負面展望最為明顯，反映投資者正在減持風險性資產。
• 投資者透過買入原油和政府公債來對沖風險，同時拋售比特幣等資產，顯示市場明確關注地緣政治不穩定帶來的通膨威脅。

市場概覽

由於中東地區局勢不斷升溫並重新成為市場焦點，對美國可能捲入衝突的擔憂增高，市場明顯轉向避險情緒。此種地緣政治焦慮觸發了典型的避險潮：美國主要股市指數普遍收低，原油價格飆升，投資者則尋求美國政府公債的庇護。美元亦因其避險地位而走強。
在美國境內，最新公布的零售銷售報告內容好壞參半，總體數據略顯疲弱，但潛在的「對照組」銷售表現則仍相對穩健。然而，此報告對緩和市場緊張情緒助益甚微。隨著聯準會展開為期兩天的決策會議，市場焦點現已全面轉向其更新的經濟預測。投資者正密切關注政策制定者是否會改變其對2025年兩次降息的原先展望，此一變動對市場情緒將具有關鍵影響力。

整體市場指數

廣泛的避險情緒導致道瓊工業平均指數和小型股羅素2000指數的潛在趨勢評估惡化。相較之下，儘管標普500指数(-0.85%)和那斯達克綜合指數(-0.98%)單日收黑，其整體趨勢仍維持正向。這一分歧表現顯示市場廣度可能正在收窄，對整體市場上升趨勢的持久性提出質疑。

美國十大企業

儘管整體市場走勢偏弱，多數大型股領導者的潛在趨勢並未出現變化。這表明導致蘋果(Apple Inc)(-1.40%)等個股下跌的賣壓可能屬於公司層面的特定因素。相對而言，微軟(Microsoft)和博通(Broadcom)等公司的強勁正向趨勢依然穩固。

美國總體經濟

本週企業獲利前景明顯惡化，從先前的正向轉為負向，為聯準會的決策環境增添複雜性。此一變化與消費者信心的評估形成鮮明對比，後者持續維持正向，並為經濟提供了關鍵的支撐。

產業類股總覽

受原油價格大漲(+4.72%)帶動，能源類股表現亮眼，趨勢轉強至正向。另一方面，防禦型類股趨勢轉弱：必需消費品和醫療保健類股顯著惡化，而公用事業和不動產類股則降溫至中性。

國際市場

全球避險情緒升溫，引發各地市場趨勢廣泛惡化。歐盟和中國的前景從正向轉弱至中性，而印度、新興歐洲市場與拉丁美洲等新興市場的評估則明確轉為負面，顯示市場對風險的普遍規避。

其他資產

由於供應擔憂導致原油價格飆漲(+4.72%)，投資者買入美國政府公債，全球市場的恐慌情緒清晰可見。這典型的避險舉動對比特幣(-3.72%)等資產構成壓力。黃金(+0.05%)則保持穩定。

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Risk-Off Mood Grips Markets as Geopolitical Tensions Flare

Investors flee to safety amid Middle East fears, driving oil higher and stocks lower as sector trends diverge sharply.

By Joe 盧, CFA As of June 17, 2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Geopolitical fears sparked a flight to safety, sending stocks lower, oil higher, and bond yields up, with all eyes now on the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy projections.
• Broad market trends diverged as the outlook for the Dow and Russell 2000 deteriorated, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite trends remained resiliently positive.
• Mega-cap trend assessments held stable despite the sell-off, indicating investor conviction in long-term leaders remains unshaken by the day's macro-driven volatility.
• A deteriorating outlook for corporate earnings clashed with persistently strong consumer data, creating a complex and conflicting economic picture for policymakers to navigate.
• Sector trends fractured, with Energy improving while traditional defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Healthcare weakened, signaling fears of an inflation shock over an economic slowdown.
• International market trends weakened globally, with emerging markets showing the most acute shift to a negative outlook as investors shed risk.
• Investors hedged risk by buying crude oil and government bonds while selling assets like Bitcoin, signaling a clear focus on the inflationary threat from geopolitical instability.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Markets faced a distinct risk-off shift as escalating tensions in the Middle East returned to the forefront, raising concerns of potential U.S. involvement. This geopolitical anxiety triggered a classic flight to safety, with broad U.S. equity indices closing lower, crude oil prices surging, and investors seeking refuge in U.S. government debt. The U.S. dollar also strengthened, reflecting its haven status.

Domestically, a mixed retail sales report showing a soft headline but resilient underlying "control group" sales did little to soothe nerves. With the Federal Reserve beginning its two-day meeting, all focus now shifts to its updated economic projections. Investors are scrutinizing whether policymakers will alter their outlook for two rate cuts in 2025, a decision that will be critical in shaping market sentiment.

BROAD INDICES

A broad flight from risk caused the underlying trend assessments for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index to deteriorate. In contrast, trends for the S&P 500 (-0.85%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.98%) remained positive despite negative daily returns. This divergence signals a potential narrowing of market breadth, questioning the durability of the overall market uptrend.

TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES

Despite market weakness, underlying trends for most mega-cap leaders were unchanged, suggesting the selling that drove down names like Apple Inc (-1.40%) was company specific. Powerful positive trends for companies like Microsoft and Broadcom remained firm.

U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The outlook for corporate earnings deteriorated significantly this week, shifting from positive to negative. This downshift creates a complex backdrop for the Federal Reserve, as it contrasts sharply with the assessment of consumer strength, which remains consistently positive and provides a key pillar of economic support.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

Energy was a standout as its trend firmed to positive on a (+4.72%) surge in crude oil. Conversely, defensive sectors saw their trends weaken: Consumer Staples and Healthcare deteriorated significantly, while Utilities and Real Estate cooled to neutral.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

A global flight from risk triggered widespread trend deterioration. Outlooks for the European Union and China faded from positive to neutral, while assessments for emerging markets like India, Emerging Europe, and Latin America turned decisively negative, confirming a broader aversion to risk.

OTHER ASSETS

The global fear was clear as Crude Oil (+4.72%) surged on supply fears and investors bought U.S. government debt. This classic risk-off move pressured assets like Bitcoin (-3.72%). Gold's (+0.05%) remained stable.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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