【Joe’s華爾街脈動】聯準會謹慎態度使市場分化，經濟前景黯淡

大型股的領導地位正掩蓋整體經濟和國際市場日益加劇的疲弱，迫使投資者在經濟衰退擔憂與通膨風險之間進行權衡

Joe 盧, CFA 截至：2025年6月18日

重點摘要

• 美國聯準會維持利率不變，但下調了經濟成長預測，在地緣政治和關稅相關風險升高的背景下，市場基調趨於謹慎。
• 隨著道瓊工業平均指數等大盤指標趨勢轉為負面，市場領導族群已顯著收窄，反映經濟信心減弱。
• 輝達(NVIDIA)等關鍵成長動能股的漲勢已停滯，使得市場日益依賴少數幾檔如微軟(Microsoft)等具韌性的大型股。
• 企業獲利前景轉弱，如今與強韌的消費者信心形成衝突，為美國經濟製造了核心的矛盾點。
• 隨著對經濟敏感的類股趨勢降溫，而能源類股因地緣政治風險走強，市場正出現明顯的防禦性輪動。
• 聯準會的保守展望導致歐洲和澳洲的正面動能迅速停滯，對全球復甦的論述構成挑戰。
• 投資者正湧入安全的美國公債，而原油價格則上漲，反映出市場同時擔憂經濟放緩和通貨膨脹。

市場概覽

在投資者消化美國聯準會6月份會議（維持利率不變）的消息之際，股市小幅回落。央行最新的經濟預測展示出更加謹慎的前景，為風險性資產帶來了壓抑的基調。儘管聯準會預期2025年將進行兩次降息，但對明年的降息幅度預期下修，反映出通膨與經濟成長存在高度不確定性。
主要焦點在於聯準會的評論及其修訂後的「點陣圖」。官員們下調了對實質GDP成長的預期，同時略微上調了對通膨和失業率的預測。聯準會主席鮑爾強調，關稅的潛在影響仍是一大變數，因此目前「維持現狀」的政策立場是合理的。聯準會持續採取依賴數據的政策導向，加上中東緊張局勢導致原油價格上漲，已使投資者在通膨風險與潛在經濟放緩之間進行權衡。

整體市場指數

市場內部結構正逐漸顯現壓力跡象，這是美國聯準會釋出更為謹慎經濟展望後的直接反應。儘管在少數大型股的帶動下，標普500指數和那斯達克綜合指數維持其正向趨勢，但其他領域的動能正在惡化。道瓊工業平均指數的趨勢已轉為負面，而小型股羅素2000指數的前景亦顯著轉弱。此種分歧突顯了投資者日益加劇的憂慮，因為聯準會所表達的對關稅和經濟成長放緩的擔憂，對工業和以美國國內市場為重的小型企業造成了不成比例的影響。

美國十大企業

市場上市值最大的幾家公司，其領導地位正在收窄，反映了更廣泛的不確定性。儘管少數幾家公司如微軟(Microsoft)和Meta (Meta Platforms)持續展現非常強勁的動能，但像輝達(NVIDIA)和Alphabet等成長引擎的強勁趨勢已停滯轉入中性階段。此一停頓顯示，在聯準會下調其經濟預測後，投資者正在重新評估未來的成長前景。市場的健康狀況似乎日益依賴少數幾家表現優異的公司。這種結構在面對經濟逆風時，恐難以維持穩定。

美國總體經濟

最新的經濟訊號揭示出一項關鍵分歧。企業獲利的前景近期已轉為負面，此一發展與美國聯準會下調GDP成長預測的結果直接吻合。這顯示企業可能開始感受到經濟放緩的壓力。此新浮現的疲弱與消費者持續的強勁形成鮮明對比，後者受到依然健康的勞動市場支撐。這種矛盾——企業部門轉弱而消費者依然強韌——是美國經濟的核心動態，其解決方式很可能決定市場下一個主要的走向。

產業類股總覽

隨著聯準會釋出的政策訊號在市場中發酵，一波明顯的防禦性資金輪動正悄然展開。對經濟敏感的原物料類股趨勢已轉為負面，而先前強勁的金融和工業類股動能則有所降溫。這種從週期性資產的撤離，突顯了市場對經濟擴張持久性的擔憂加劇。相較之下，能源類股趨勢的正向轉變，則是地緣政治緊張局勢支撐原油價格的直接結果，在普遍謹慎的氛圍中創造了一個強勢的亮點。

國際市場

美國聯準會採取保守立場，已在全球市場引發明顯的全球外溢效應，對同步復甦的市場論述構成挑戰。近期在歐盟和澳洲見到的強勁正面動能已迅速停滯，隨著投資者重新校準全球經濟成長預期而轉為中性。拉丁美洲的趨勢逆轉尤其劇烈，已從非常正向轉為負面。此種普遍的降溫顯示，對美國經濟放緩的擔憂正促使國際市場出現顯著的避險轉向。

其他資產

跨資產走勢清楚反映出資金流向優質資產以及風險後的重新定價。在聯準會更為保守的經濟展望的直接影響下，資金流入安全的美國公債的趨勢已趨穩固。與此同時，中東地區不斷升級的地緣政治衝突鞏固了原油的正向趨勢，為整體局勢注入了通膨風險。美元在此不確定性中受益，而黃金和比特幣則呈現走弱，顯示市場對目前經濟衰退的擔憂正蓋過其作為傳統避險資產的吸引力。

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Fed's Caution Fractures Market as Economic Outlook Dims

Mega-cap leadership is masking growing weakness in the broader economy and international markets, forcing investors to weigh recessionary fears against inflationary risks.

By Joe 盧, CFA As of: 2025/06/18

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but lowered its growth forecast, creating a cautious market tone amid rising geopolitical and tariff-related risks.
• Market leadership has narrowed significantly as the positive trend in broad measures like the Dow Jones Industrial Average turns negative, reflecting weakening economic sentiment.
• Momentum for key growth drivers like NVIDIA has stalled, making the market increasingly reliant on a few resilient mega-cap names like Microsoft.
• A weakening outlook for corporate earnings is now clashing with resilient consumer strength, creating a central tension point for the U.S. economy.
• A clear defensive rotation is underway as trends in economically sensitive sectors cool while Energy strengthens on geopolitical risk.
• The Fed's guarded outlook is causing a rapid stall in positive momentum across Europe and Australia, challenging the global recovery narrative.
• Investors are moving into the safety of Treasury bonds while crude oil prices rise, reflecting simultaneous concerns over an economic slowdown and inflation.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Equity markets retreated modestly as investors digested the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady following its June meeting. The central bank's updated economic projections signaled a more cautious outlook, creating a subdued tone for risk assets. While the Fed maintained its forecast for two rate cuts in 2025, it trimmed its expectation for rate reductions next year, reflecting persistent uncertainty around inflation and growth.

The primary focus was the Fed's commentary and its revised "dot plot." Officials dialed back their expectations for real GDP growth while nudging up forecasts for both inflation and unemployment. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the potential impact of tariffs remains a significant unknown, justifying a "hold where we are" stance for now. This data-dependent posture, combined with rising crude oil prices from Middle East tensions, has left investors weighing inflationary risks against a potentially slowing economy.

BROAD INDICES

The market’s underlying fabric is showing signs of strain, a direct consequence of the Federal Reserve's more cautious economic outlook. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are maintaining their positive trends, driven by a narrow set of mega-cap stocks, momentum is deteriorating elsewhere. The trend for the Dow Jones Industrial Average has turned negative, and the outlook for the small-cap Russell 2000 Index has weakened significantly. This divergence highlights growing investor apprehension, as concerns about tariffs and slower growth, voiced by the Fed, disproportionately impact industrial and smaller domestic-focused companies.

TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES

Leadership among the market's largest companies is narrowing, reflecting the broader uncertainty. While a select few firms like Microsoft and Meta Platforms continue to show exceptionally strong momentum, the powerful trends for growth engines like NVIDIA and Alphabet have stalled into a neutral phase. This pause indicates that investors are reassessing future growth prospects following the Fed’s downshift in its economic forecast. The market's health appears increasingly dependent on a handful of outperformers, a potentially fragile foundation if economic headwinds gather.

U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The latest economic signals reveal a critical divergence. The outlook for corporate earnings has recently turned negative, a development that aligns directly with the Federal Reserve's lowered forecast for GDP growth. This suggests businesses may be starting to feel the pressure from a slowing economy. This emerging weakness stands in stark contrast to the persistent strength of the consumer, who is supported by a still-healthy labor market. This tension—a weakening corporate sector against a resilient consumer—is the central dynamic for the U.S. economy, and its resolution will likely dictate the market’s next major move.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

A clear defensive rotation is underway, as the Fed's messaging ripples through the market. The trend in economically sensitive Materials has turned negative, while momentum has cooled in the previously strong Financials and Industrials sectors. This flight from cyclical assets underscores growing concern about the durability of the economic expansion. In contrast, the positive shift in the Energy sector's trend is a direct result of geopolitical tensions supporting crude prices, creating a pocket of strength amid broader caution.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

The Federal Reserve’s guarded stance is having a distinct global spillover effect, challenging the narrative of a synchronized recovery. The strong positive momentum recently seen in the European Union and Australia has rapidly stalled, shifting to neutral as investors recalibrate global growth expectations. The trend reversal has been particularly dramatic in Latin America, which has flipped from strongly positive to negative. This widespread cooling indicates that concerns over a U.S. slowdown are prompting a significant, risk-off shift in international markets.

OTHER ASSETS

Cross-asset trends clearly reflect a flight to quality and a repricing of risk. The move into the safety of Treasury bonds has firmed up, a direct reaction to the Fed’s more reserved economic outlook. Simultaneously, the positive trend in Crude Oil has been cemented by escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, injecting an inflationary risk into the equation. The U.S. dollar has benefited from this uncertainty, while Gold and Bitcoin have traded softer, suggesting that for now, recessionary fears are outweighing their traditional safe-haven appeal.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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