【Joe’s華爾街脈動】股市漲勢藏暗流，關鍵趨勢正在轉變

儘管主要指數逼近新高，但趨勢分析揭示消費者健康狀況惡化、關鍵成長類股動能停滯，以及資金流向債券避險，對此波漲勢的基礎構成挑戰

Joe 盧, CFA 2025年6月26日 美東時間

重點摘要

• 美股逼近歷史高點，但漲勢正在收窄，其力道依賴少數關鍵類股和大型股，而潛在的經濟訊號則顯示出壓力跡象。
• 儘管主要指數展現強勁的正面動能，但能源類股的關鍵趨勢逆轉，以及半導體動能停滯，顯示市場的基礎正變得不那麼穩定。
• 頂尖企業間的顯著分歧突顯了市場的選擇性，Meta和微軟(Microsoft)的領導地位被Alphabet新的負面趨勢以及蘋果(Apple)的持續疲弱所抵銷。
• 經濟前景日益分歧，消費者信心評估急劇惡化，與穩定的企業獲利訊號和加劇的通膨趨緩壓力形成衝突。
• 類股領導地位已明確轉動至金融、工業和通訊服務類股，而醫療保健和不動產等防禦型類股則面臨嚴重且不斷惡化的下降趨勢。
• 國際市場提供了選擇性的機會，加拿大和亞洲部分地區出現明確的領導趨勢，與其他已開發地區較為溫和或疲弱的趨勢形成對比。
• 不確定性的增加反映在投資者紛紛轉向避險性質的美國公債，而黃金和原油等主要大宗商品，在關鍵通膨數據公布前缺乏明確的方向性。

市場概覽

美股續創歷史高點附近水準，儘管下修第一季GDP數據，確認經濟出現萎縮，但市場仍展現出韌性。本波漲勢由成長導向和週期性的類股所驅動，顯示投資者正越過參差不齊的經濟數據，轉而展望更為樂觀的未來。然而，此樂觀情緒正受到經濟基礎潛在裂痕的考驗。
儘管初次申請領失業金人數優於預期，但持續申領人數卻升至三年多來新高。這種分歧，加上較為疲弱的消費者支出數據，顯示勞動市場和消費者健康狀況可能正在轉弱。債券市場反映了此種謹慎態度，隨著投資者權衡未來經濟成長的影響，公債殖利率隨之下滑。在市場處於關鍵轉折點之際，本週五的PCE通膨報告已成為可能決定下一個方向性走勢的關鍵數據發布。

整體市場指數

儘管標普500指數和那斯達克綜合指數持續呈現強勁且加速的正向趨勢，但漲勢的廣度正引發市場關注。羅素2000指數的小型股已出現明顯的正向趨勢逆轉，但此復甦仍顯脆弱。更重要的是，先前領漲的費城半導體指數其強勁的上升趨勢已停滯轉為中性。此一關鍵成長動能的喪失，加上小型股仍然脆弱的復甦，顯示市場的漲勢正在收窄，並日益依賴少數幾家領導股。

美國十大企業

目前的市場漲勢極具選擇性，主由少數幾家佔主導地位的大型股所驅動，而其他個股則表現不振。Meta (Meta Platforms)和微軟(Microsoft)持續展現強勁、穩定的正向趨勢，扮演著重要的支撐角色。然而，此種強勢與其他個故的顯著疲弱形成對比。Alphabet的趨勢在過去一週已明確轉為負面，對此市場權值股而言是個顯著的惡化。這與蘋果(Apple)和波克夏海瑟威(Berkshire Hathaway)持續的負面趨勢相呼應。與此同時，先前如輝達(NVIDIA)和特斯拉(Tesla)等領導股的動能已停滯，目前兩者均被評為中性，突顯了正面動能日益集中於少數幾家表現優異的公司。

美國總體經濟

美國經濟前景日益由相互衝突的訊號所左右。最重大的發展是我們對消費者信心的評估出現急劇惡化，此發現證實了較疲弱的支出數據和持續申領失業救濟金人數的上升。這對經濟成長構成了嚴重的阻力。相較之下，企業獲利的前景已從負面評估中穩定下來。在此之上，更疊加了強勁且加劇的通膨趨緩訊號。消費者轉弱、企業獲利穩定以及通膨降溫之間的衝突，創造了一個複雜且不確定的環境，使得即將公布的通膨數據成為釐清此一論述的關鍵依據。

產業類股總覽

隨著防禦型類股轉弱，一場明確的輪動已然成形，新一波領導結構正在鞏固。金融、工業和通訊服務類股目前展現強勁且加速的正向趨勢，確立了它們作為市場新領導者的地位。非必需消費品類股的趨勢亦轉為正向，顯示週期性強勢可能正在選擇性地擴大。此領導地位與醫療保健、不動產和必需消費品類股所見的嚴重且加劇的負面趨勢形成鮮明對比。此外，能源類股的趨勢已從正向明確逆轉為負向，顯示投資者正積極減持前景轉弱領域的曝險。

國際市場

其他資產

日益升高的經濟不確定性清楚地反映在其他資產類別上。隨著投資者尋求對潛在經濟放緩的庇護，7-10年期美國公債日益增強的正向趨勢中，可見明顯的避險潮。相較之下，關鍵的風險和通膨避險資產則缺乏信心。黃金的趨勢為中性，而原油的趨勢已轉為負面，顯示需求擔憂目前正蓋過其他因素。比特幣的趨勢雖仍為正向，但似乎正在盤整。大宗商品和數位資產缺乏明確的方向性訊號，突顯出在關鍵通膨數據公布前，投資者的猶豫不決。

保持聯繫並分享見解：

• 若您覺得本文有幫助，請點讚支持。
• 歡迎將此電子報轉發給可能覺得有價值的同事和朋友。
• 訂閱即可直接在您的收見匣中收到此分析。
• 在社群媒體上關注我們以獲取更多更新。

本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）

關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Beneath the Surface: Key Trend Shifts Signal Growing Risks to Market Ascent

While major indices flirt with new highs, trend analysis reveals deteriorating consumer health, stalling momentum in key growth sectors, and a flight to safety in bonds, challenging the rally's foundation.

By Joe 盧, CFA As of June 26, 2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• U.S. equities neared record highs, but the rally is narrowing, with strength dependent on a few key sectors and mega-cap stocks while underlying economic signals show signs of stress.
• While major indices show strong positive momentum, a critical trend reversal in the Energy sector and stalling momentum for Semiconductors suggest the market's foundation is becoming less stable.
• A stark divergence among top companies highlights market selectivity, as leadership from Meta and Microsoft is offset by a new negative trend for Alphabet and persistent weakness in Apple.
• The economic outlook is increasingly fractured, with a sharp deterioration in the consumer strength assessment clashing with stabilizing earnings signals and intensifying disinflationary pressures.
• Sector leadership has rotated decisively into Financials, Industrials, and Communication Services, while defensive sectors like Healthcare and Real Estate face severe and worsening downtrends.
• International markets offer selective opportunities as clear leadership trends emerge in Canada and parts of Asia, contrasting with more muted or weak trends in other developed regions.
• Growing uncertainty is reflected in a flight to safety in Treasury bonds, while key commodities like Gold and Crude Oil lack clear directional conviction ahead of critical inflation data.

MARKET OVERVIEW

U.S. equity markets pushed toward all-time highs, showing resilience despite a downward revision to first-quarter GDP that confirmed an economic contraction. The advance was powered by growth-oriented and cyclical sectors, suggesting investors are looking beyond mixed economic data toward a more optimistic future. However, this optimism is being tested by underlying cracks in the economic foundation.

While initial jobless claims came in better than expected, continuing claims rose to their highest level in over three years. This divergence, coupled with weaker consumer spending data, points to a potential weakening of the labor market and consumer health. The bond market reflected this caution, with Treasury yields falling as investors weighed the implications for future growth. With the market at a pivotal point, Friday's PCE inflation report has become the critical data release that could determine the next directional move.

BROAD INDICES

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite exhibit powerful and accelerating positive trends, the rally's breadth is a growing concern. A significant positive trend reversal has emerged for small-caps in the Russell 2000, but this recovery is still fragile. More importantly, the formerly leading PHLX Semiconductor Index has seen its powerful uptrend stall into a neutral state. This loss of momentum in a critical growth driver, combined with the still-tenuous recovery in small-caps, suggests the market's advance is narrowing and becoming more dependent on a smaller group of leaders.

TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES

The market's rally is highly selective, driven by a few dominant mega-caps while others falter. Meta Platforms and Microsoft continue to exhibit strong, stable positive trends, acting as key pillars of support. However, this strength is contrasted by significant weakness elsewhere. The trend for Alphabet has decisively shifted to negative over the past week, a notable deterioration for a market heavyweight. This joins the persistent negative trends for Apple and Berkshire Hathaway. Meanwhile, momentum has stalled for former leaders NVIDIA and Tesla, both of which are now assessed as neutral, underscoring the concentration of positive momentum in an ever-smaller group of outperformers.

U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The economic outlook is increasingly defined by conflicting signals. The most significant development is a sharp deterioration in our assessment of consumer strength, a finding that corroborates weaker spending data and rising continuing jobless claims. This poses a serious headwind to growth. In contrast, the outlook for corporate earnings has stabilized out of a negative assessment. Layered on top is a strong and intensifying disinflationary signal. This clash between a weakening consumer, stabilizing earnings, and cooling inflation creates a complex and uncertain environment, placing immense importance on upcoming inflation data to resolve the narrative.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

A clear rotation has taken hold, with leadership consolidating as defensive sectors weaken. Financials, Industrials, and Communication Services now show strong and accelerating positive trends, establishing them as the market's new leaders. Consumer Discretionary has also seen its trend turn positive, suggesting cyclical strength may be broadening selectively. This leadership stands in stark contrast to the severe and intensifying negative trends seen in Healthcare, Real Estate, and Consumer Staples. Furthermore, the trend for the Energy sector has decisively reversed from positive to negative, indicating investors are aggressively shedding exposure to areas with weakening outlooks.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

The global landscape requires a discerning approach, as strong regional trends emerge amid broad-based sluggishness. Canada, Singapore, and Hong Kong have established themselves as clear leaders, with strong and accelerating positive momentum. Sentiment has also notably improved for Asia's largest economies, with the trends for China and Japan shifting back to positive. This contrasts with the European Union, where a positive trend has emerged but still lags the new leadership groups. Other regions, like Australia and Latin America, remain stuck in neutral or weak trends, highlighting the need for investors to look beyond broad international indices to find pockets of true strength.

OTHER ASSETS

Heightened economic uncertainty is clearly reflected across other asset classes. A distinct flight to safety is evident in the strengthening positive trend for 7-10 Year Treasury Bonds, as investors seek refuge from potential growth slowdowns. In contrast, key risk and inflation-hedging assets lack conviction. The trend for Gold is neutral, while the trend for Crude Oil has turned negative, suggesting demand concerns are currently outweighing other factors. Bitcoin’s trend remains positive but appears to be consolidating. This lack of a clear directional signal from commodities and digital assets underscores investor indecision ahead of pivotal inflation data.

Stay Connected & Share the Insights:

• Like this article if you found it helpful.
• Forward this newsletter to colleagues and friends who might find it valuable.
• Subscribe to receive this analysis directly to your inbox.
• Follow us on social media for more updates.

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

Join the official LINE account of "Joe’s Wall Street Pulse" now to receive the latest column updates (click here to join)