•
【Joe’s華爾街脈動】投資人焦點轉移！貿易利多推新高
科技股領漲，為強勁的季度畫下句點，儘管債券殖利率下滑預示未來經濟可能放緩
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年6月30日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 在貿易緊張局勢緩解的跡象推動下，美國股市上漲至歷史新高，為本月、本季及上半年畫下句點。
- 由於加拿大撤回擬議的數位稅提振了市場情緒，科技和金融類股帶動標普500指數和那斯達克指數創下新高。
- 儘管股市上漲，10年期美國公債殖利率跌至5月初以來最低水平，反映市場持續預期聯準會今年將進行多次降息。
- 芝加哥採購經理人指數(PMI)連續第19個月呈現萎縮，顯示潛在的製造業疲弱，但市場對此基本上不予理會。
- 美加貿易談判的突破提供了主要的催化劑，與此同時，投資者亦關注進行中的參議院預算協商，以及對歐盟和日本潛在的關稅威脅。
隨著上半年接近尾聲，市場的優先順序顯得格外清晰。主要的驅動力並非強勁的經濟數據，而是關鍵地緣政治干擾因素的消除。加拿大撤回其原定的數位服務稅計畫——此舉促使美加貿易談判立即重啟——的消息，足以推動標普500指數和那斯達克指數創下歷史新高。此一發展證實，目前而言，投資者對貿易衝突降溫的重視程度超過了潛在的經濟基本面。當日疲弱的芝加哥採購經理人指數(PMI)報告顯示製造業活動持續萎縮，但被市場完全忽視，顯示樂觀情緒已成為主導力量。
這波市場動態在不同資產類別之間形成顯著的分歧。儘管由科技和金融股領漲的股市受到風險偏好提振，但債券市場卻呈現另一種景象。10年期美國公債殖利率跌至4.235%，為近兩個月來的最低點。這並非一個確信經濟將加速成長的市場所應有的反應。相反地，它表明債券投資者仍然堅定地專注於經濟放緩以及美國聯準會未來將採取寬鬆政策的前景。期貨市場持續預期降息次數將多於聯準會自身的預測，這為股市提供了估值支撐，並抑制了長期殖利率的上升。
展望未來，股市當前的走勢仍傾向上行，似乎是阻力最小的路徑。然而，這一論述即將面臨實質考驗。因假期而縮短的交易週密集排滿了關鍵的勞動市場數據，並將在週四的非農業就業報告中達到重點。市場焦點現已從地緣政治的姿態轉回經濟基本面。儘管市場已成功收復本季稍早因關稅相關的失地，但若即將公布的就業和製造業數據進一步驗證區域調查中透露的疲弱訊號，市場的新高紀錄恐將面臨挑戰。正在進行中的參議院預算辯論以及與歐盟和日本持續的貿易摩擦，仍然是可能輕易擾亂當前樂觀情緒的關鍵風險因素。
週一資產焦點：美國指數與個股趨勢
今日的焦點是美國股市，過去一週主要指數普遍呈現趨勢增強的態勢。然而，此波漲勢並非普遍一致，因為頂級大型股之間的表現顯示出顯著分歧，投資者偏好某些領導股，而對其他股票則保持謹慎或負面看法。
圖表一：美國股市指數(美元計價)
- 道瓊工業平均指數(代表ETF：DIA)：當前：▲▲，上週：--
- 標普500指數(代表ETF：SPY)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲
- 那斯達克綜合指數(代表ETF：QQQ)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 羅素2000指數(代表ETF：IWM)：當前：▲，上週：--
- 費城半導體指數(代表ETF：SOXQ)：當前：--，上週：--
過去一週，美國股市的趨勢顯著改善，顯示投資者信心正逐步回升。其中，道瓊工業平均指數出現最顯著的轉變，從中性立場加速至非常正向。基準的標普500指数亦增強力道，從正向轉為非常正向。以羅素2000指数為代表的小型股現已加入此波漲勢，從中性改善至正向。儘管那斯達克綜合指數維持其正向趨勢，但費城半導體指數仍然是一個令人擔憂的點，維持中性評級，未能參與整體市場的加速上漲。這表明當前的漲勢雖然廣泛，但尚未完全涵蓋關鍵的半導體產業。
圖表二：美國五大企業(美元計價)
- 輝達(NVIDIA Corp) (股票代號：NVDA)：當前：--，上週：--
- 微軟(Microsoft Corp) (股票代號：MSFT)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 蘋果(Apple Inc) (股票代號：AAPL)：當前：▼，上週：▼▼
- 亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc) (股票代號：AMZN)：當前：▲，上週：--
- Meta (Meta Platforms Inc) (股票代號：META)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
美國市值最高的幾家企業表現正呈現高度兩極分化。微軟(Microsoft Corp)和Meta (Meta Platforms Inc)持續展現明確的領導地位，兩者均維持其非常正向的趨勢，並證實了其市場支柱的地位。亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc)現已進入正向區域，從中性改善至正向。形成鮮明對比的是，輝達(NVIDIA Corp)仍停滯於中性趨勢，相對於同儕表現出令人擔憂的動能缺乏。蘋果(Apple Inc)持續是主要的落後者；儘管其趨勢從非常負面略微緩和至負面，但它仍然是市場頂層的一個顯著弱點。此種分歧突顯出投資者之間存在的是一種選擇性的，而非普遍性的風險偏好。
👍若您覺得這份研究有價值，請對本文按讚。
📲加入並追蹤鉅亨號，與我們互動，即可獲取更多趨勢指標和市場資訊。
📰 追蹤此部落格。
💬LINE好友。
➡️將此分析分享給您的親朋好友，一同獲取最新投資觀點。
本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Record Highs on Easing Trade Friction Signal Shift in Investor Focus
Technology stocks lead the charge to close out a strong quarter, even as falling bond yields point to expectations of future economic slowing.
By Joe 盧, CFA | June 30, 2025 ET
Executive Summary
- US equities advanced to new record highs to close the month, quarter, and first half, driven by signs of de-escalating trade tensions.
- Technology and financial sectors powered the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh peaks as Canada's withdrawal of a proposed digital tax boosted sentiment.
- The 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest level since early May, reflecting persistent expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts this year despite the equity rally.
- The Chicago PMI registered its 19th consecutive month of contraction, a sign of underlying manufacturing weakness that the market largely disregarded.
- A breakthrough in US-Canada trade talks provided the primary catalyst, while investors monitored ongoing Senate budget negotiations and simmering tariff threats against the EU and Japan.
The market's priorities came into sharp focus to close out the first half of the year. The primary driver was not robust economic data, but the removal of a key geopolitical overhang. News that Canada rescinded its planned digital services tax—prompting the immediate resumption of U.S. trade talks—was sufficient to propel the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new all-time highs. This development confirms that for now, investors are weighing the de-escalation of trade conflicts more heavily than underlying economic fundamentals. The day's weak Chicago PMI report, which showed sustained contraction in manufacturing activity, was summarily ignored, signaling that positive sentiment is the dominant force.
This dynamic created a notable divergence between asset classes. While equity markets, led by technology and financials, celebrated the risk-on catalyst, the bond market told a different story. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.235%, its lowest point in nearly two months. This is not the action of a market convinced of accelerating growth. Instead, it indicates that bond investors remain squarely focused on the prospect of a slowing economy and future Federal Reserve easing. The futures market continues to price in more rate cuts than the Fed's own projections, providing a valuation backstop for equities and keeping a lid on long-term yields.
Looking ahead, the path of least resistance for equities appears higher, but this narrative will be tested immediately. The holiday-shortened week is dense with critical labor market data, culminating in Thursday's nonfarm payrolls report. The focus has now shifted from geopolitical posturing back to economic reality. While the market has successfully erased the tariff-related losses from earlier in the quarter, its new highs will be challenged if upcoming jobs and manufacturing data confirm the weakness hinted at by regional surveys. The ongoing Senate budget debate and persistent trade friction with the EU and Japan remain key risk factors that could easily disrupt the current optimism.
Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Indices & Stock Trends
Today's focus is on the U.S. equity market, where a broad strengthening of trend is evident across major indices over the past week. However, this rally is not uniform, as performance among the top mega-cap stocks reveals significant divergence, with investors favoring certain leaders while remaining cautious or negative on others.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
- S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: --, Last Week: --
The trend for U.S. equities improved significantly over the past week, signaling renewed investor confidence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed the most notable shift, accelerating from a Neutral stance to Strongly Positive. The benchmark S&P 500 Index also gained strength, moving from Positive to Strongly Positive. Small-caps, represented by the Russell 2000 Index, have now joined the rally, improving from Neutral to Positive. While the Nasdaq Composite maintained its Positive trend, the PHLX Semiconductor Index remains a point of concern, holding a Neutral rating and failing to participate in the broader market's acceleration. This indicates the current rally is broad but has not yet fully captured the critical semiconductor sector.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)
- NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: --, Last Week: --
- Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- Meta Platforms Inc (Ticker: META): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Performance among the market's largest companies is highly bifurcated. Microsoft Corp and Meta Platforms Inc continue to demonstrate clear leadership, both maintaining their Strongly Positive trends and confirming their status as market anchors. Amazon.com Inc has now entered positive territory, improving from Neutral to Positive. In stark contrast, NVIDIA Corp remains stalled in a Neutral trend, showing a concerning lack of momentum relative to peers. Apple Inc continues to be the primary laggard; while its trend moderated slightly from Strongly Negative to Negative, it remains a significant source of weakness at the top of the market. This divergence underscores a selective, rather than indiscriminate, risk-on appetite among investors.
👍'Like' this article if you found this research valuable.
📲 Join our private channels to get more trend indicators and market information delivered directly to you. Choose your preferred channel to stay informed.
📰Follow this blog.
💬Connect with us on LINE.
➡️Share this analysis to someone in your network who appreciates a data-driven perspective.
This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）
關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》
鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。