【Joe’s華爾街脈動】關稅震撼彈襲來，市場緊盯政策風險

美股因新加拿大關稅動盪，投資人目光轉向第二季財報以尋找壓力跡象

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月11日 美東時間

重點摘要

• 由於貿易風險突然重現，美國股市從歷史高點回落，為本週收盤下跌。
• 在川普總統宣布對多項加拿大進口商品課徵35%關稅（8月1日生效）後，股市普遍下跌，道瓊工業平均指數和小型股羅素2000指數跌幅最大。
• 公債殖利率上揚，殖利率曲線趨於陡峭，顯示債券投資者對關稅的通膨影響的擔憂，勝過對經濟成長的風險。
• 投資者的焦點現已明確轉向下週的第二季財報和通膨數據，以衡量貿易政策對企業獲利和物價的實質影響。
• 川普政府已重新升級貿易緊張局勢，設定8月1日為對加拿大新關稅的最後期限，並暗示即將對歐盟採取進一步行動。

今日的盤勢進一步印證，地緣政治政策再次成為市場行為的主要驅動力，而非經濟數據。美國政府意外宣布對一系列加拿大進口商品課徵35%的關稅，自8月1日生效，此舉粉碎了市場近期累積的自滿情緒。這項政策衝擊並迫使投資者為更廣泛的貿易衝突風險及其通膨後果重新定價，在關鍵的第二季財報季來臨前，也使得市場論述突然發生轉變。

各類資產的反應清晰，說明問題。股市出現廣泛性的拋售，標普500指數從昨日的歷史高點下跌0.3%，道瓊工業平均指數則下跌了更為劇烈的0.6%。值得注意的是，債券市場的反應並非避險，而是出現拋售，將10年期美國公債殖利率推高了7個基點。這表明市場對新關稅的首要解讀是，它們首先是通膨性的，其次才是對經濟成長的風險。此種動態為美元的小幅升值提供了支撐，而芝加哥選擇權交易所波動率指數(VIX)則飆升，反映出投資者焦慮情緒的明確增加。

市場注意力現已迅速轉向將於下週正式展開的第二季財報季。分析師預測，企業獲利成長將出現明顯放緩，標普500指數的企業獲利成長預計將從第一季的13%降至5%。這些因政策擔憂而已被下修的預估值，將受到特別審視，以尋找利潤壓縮和需求破壞的證據。隨著8月1日的關稅最後期限以及對其他貿易夥伴採取進一步行動的威脅，企業的財測將是判斷美國企業界能否承受新一輪不斷升級的貿易衝突的關鍵指標。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

今日的報告檢視美國和台灣市場中規模最大、交易最活躍的指數股票型基金(ETF)的趨勢。這些基金是衡量整體市場情緒的重要指標。數據顯示，美國市場呈現強勁、堅定不移的正向趨勢；台灣市場則在某些領域出現企穩跡象，但在其他領域則顯現顯著且持續的疲弱。

圖表一：美國五大ETF(依資產管理規模，美元計價)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (股票代號：VOO)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (股票代號：SPY)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (股票代號：IVV)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (股票代號：VTI)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (股票代號：QQQ)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲

過去一週，美國最大的幾檔ETF趨勢維持不變，均保持在非常正向的評級。此種橫跨追蹤標普500指數、整體股市以及那斯達克100指數的基金的穩定性，顯示投資者對美國股市漲勢具有廣泛且持續的信心。趨勢未出現任何惡化，預示主要的上升趨勢依然穩固。

圖表二：台灣主要ETF(依資產管理規模，新台幣計價)

• 元大台灣卓越50基金 (股票代號：0050)：當前：--，上週：--
• 元大高股息基金 (股票代號：0056)：當前：--，上週：▼
• 國泰永續高股息 (股票代號：00878)：當前：--，上週：▼
• 群益台灣精選高息 (股票代號：00919)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼▼
• 富邦台灣采吉50基金 (股票代號：006208)：當前：--，上週：--

台灣的ETF市場已出現明顯的分歧。廣泛追蹤市場的元大50 (0050)和富邦台50 (006208)維持其中性趨勢。兩檔主要以股息為重點的基金——元大高股息(0056)和國泰永續高股息(00878)的市場情緒有所改善，均從輕微負面轉為中性。然而，群益台灣精選高息(00919)仍然是顯著的落後者，維持其非常負面的趨勢，顯示投資者正選擇性地著重特定的高收益策略。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Tariff Shock Ends Market Calm, Shifting Focus to Policy Risk

Stocks Fall and Yields Rise as New Canadian Tariffs Rattle Investors; All Eyes on Q2 Earnings for Signs of Strain

By Joe 盧, CFA | July 11, 2025

Executive Summary

• U.S. equities retreated from record highs as the sudden re-emergence of trade risk ended the week on a negative note.
• Stocks fell broadly, with the Dow and small-cap Russell 2000 seeing the largest declines after President Trump announced a 35% tariff on many Canadian imports effective August 1.
• Treasury yields rose and the curve steepened, signaling that bond investors are more concerned with the inflationary impact of tariffs than the risk to growth.
• Investor focus is now squarely on next week's Q2 earnings reports and inflation data to gauge the tangible impact of trade policy on corporate profits and prices.
• The Trump administration has re-escalated trade tensions, establishing an August 1st deadline for new Canadian tariffs and signaling further action against the EU is imminent.

Today's session confirms that geopolitical policy, not economic data, is once again the primary driver of market action. The administration's unexpected announcement of a 35% tariff on a range of Canadian goods, effective August 1, shattered the market's recent complacency. This move forces investors to re-price the risk of a wider trade conflict and its inflationary consequences, abruptly shifting the market's narrative ahead of the crucial second-quarter earnings season.

The reaction across asset classes was telling. The sell-off in equities was broad, with the S&P 500 falling 0.3% from yesterday's record high and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping a steeper 0.6%. Notably, the bond market responded not with a flight to safety, but with a sell-off that pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up by 7 basis points. This indicates the market's primary interpretation of the new tariffs is that they are inflationary first and a growth risk second. This dynamic supported a modest appreciation in the U.S. dollar, while the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) surged, reflecting a definitive increase in investor anxiety.

The market's attention now pivots sharply to the Q2 earnings season, which begins in earnest next week. Analysts already forecast a significant slowdown, with S&P 500 earnings growth expected to drop to 5% from 13% in the first quarter. These estimates, which have already been revised downward on policy concerns, will be intensely scrutinized for evidence of margin compression and demand destruction. With the August 1st tariff deadline and threats of further action against other trading partners, company guidance will be paramount for assessing whether corporate America can withstand a renewed and escalating trade conflict.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

Today's report examines the trends in the largest and most-traded Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in both the U.S. and Taiwan. These funds are key indicators of broad market sentiment. The data reveals a strong, unwavering positive trend in the U.S. market, while the Taiwanese market shows signs of stabilization in some areas but significant, persistent weakness in others.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The trend for the largest U.S. ETFs remained unchanged over the past week, holding at a Strongly Positive rating. This stability across funds tracking the S&P 500, the total stock market, and the Nasdaq-100 indicates broad and sustained investor confidence in the U.S. equity rally. The lack of any deterioration signals that the primary upward trend remains firmly intact.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
• Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
• Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: --, Last Week: --

A clear divergence has emerged in the Taiwanese ETF market. The broad market trackers, the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and the Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF, held their Neutral trend. Sentiment improved for two major dividend-focused funds, the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF and the Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF, which both shifted from Mildly Negative to Neutral. However, the Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF remains a significant laggard, maintaining its Strongly Negative trend and signaling that investors are selectively punishing specific high-yield strategies.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。