【Joe’s華爾街脈動】歐盟關稅威脅使美股漲勢受阻；台積電AI驅動的創紀錄財報預示台股將飆升

美國市場權衡地緣政治風險與強勁基本面，而台灣科技類股則從其產業龍頭獲得強大催化劑

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月18日 美東時間

重點摘要

• 在新的歐盟貿易緊張局勢抵銷了強勁的國內經濟數據之際，美國股市從歷史高點出現尾盤逆轉，而台灣市場則準備強勢開盤。
• 儘管Netflix和3M等公司財報強勁，但標普500指數和那斯達克指數從盤中高點回落，道瓊工業平均指數亦下跌，顯示投資者態度謹慎。
• 在一位聯準會官員發表鴿派評論後，公債殖利率微幅走低，儘管市場共識仍然是第三季稍晚才會降息。
• 強韌的美國零售銷售和下降的初請領失業金人數，強化了經濟穩健成長且通膨受控的「金髮女孩(Goldilocks)」情境。
• 美國可能對歐盟課徵15-20%最低關稅的報導，已成為主要的風險因素，中止了市場的上漲動能。

在穩健的企業財報和有利的經濟報告推動下，美國市場的樂觀情緒，被新一波的地緣政治風險嘎然中止。這預示著儘管美國國內經濟基礎穩固，但外部的貿易政策仍然是持續上漲的主要障礙。市場焦點已明確地從慶祝「金髮女孩(Goldilocks)」數據，轉向在8月1日的最後期限前，為潛在的跨大西洋貿易摩擦進行定價。

儘管Netflix、3M和美國運通(American Express)等指標股公布了亮眼的業績，證實了企業和消費者的健康狀況，但市場未能守住新高點本身就說明了問題。聯準會理事華勒(Waller)的鴿派言論雖拉低了債券殖利率，但仍不足以克服關稅的擔憂。目前而言，美國聯準會保持觀望，市場預期9月份將會降息，這使得股市容易受到頭條新聞風險的影響。預計10年期美國公債殖利率將維持在一個明確的區間內，反映出經濟成長放緩展望與通膨不確定性之間的拉鋸。

形成鮮明對比的是，在台積電(TSMC)歷史性的第二季財報推動下，台灣股市的前景明確看好。該公司宣布淨利潤較去年同期大幅飆升，並顯著上修其年度營收成長預測。這強而有力地驗證了持續的AI和高效能運算需求週期，鞏固了其作為主導性投資主題的地位。隨後台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的飆漲，加上加權指數看漲的技術指標和機構資金的流入支持，為指數挑戰新高點奠定了基礎。

眼前的路徑顯示，儘管美國指數在消化貿易消息時可能出現盤整，但台灣市場在半導體生態系統的帶領下，已準備好迎接突破。策略應聚焦於這些領導者。台灣OTC指數相對於台股大盤指數的滯後表現，強化了資金流向優質大型股的趨勢。投資焦點應放在AI和台積電(TSMC)供應鏈中，受益於明確基本面加速的大型、高績效個股，同時保持對新台幣升值以及任何可能帶來波動的未決關稅消息的警惕。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

今日的報告檢視美國和台灣市場中規模最大的指數股票型基金(ETF)，這些基金揭示了各市場獨特的投資者情緒。美國市場持續展現廣泛、持續的強勢，所有主要ETF均維持強勁的正向趨勢。相較之下，台灣市場則顯現企穩跡象，先前高股息ETF的急劇下跌已停止。

圖表一：美國五大ETF(依資產管理規模，美元計價)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (股票代號：VOO)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (股票代號：SPY)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (股票代號：IVV)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (股票代號：VTI)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (股票代號：QQQ)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲

美國最大的幾檔ETF趨勢維持不變，證實了市場廣泛且持續的強勢。所有五檔主要指數追蹤基金，包括Vanguard S&P 500 ETF、SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust、iShares Core S&P 500 ETF、Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF以及Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1，均維持了前一週的非常正向趨勢。此種在高檔動能下的穩定性，顯示投資者對美國股市持續抱持信心。

圖表二：台灣主要ETF(依資產管理規模，新台幣計價)

• 元大台灣卓越50基金 (股票代號：0050)：當前：▲，上週：--
• 元大高股息基金 (股票代號：0056)：當前：--，上週：--
• 國泰永續高股息 (股票代號：00878)：當前：--，上週：--
• 群益台灣精選高息 (股票代號：00919)：當前：--，上週：▼▼
• 富邦台灣采吉50基金 (股票代號：006208)：當前：--，上週：--

台灣的ETF市場已出現明確的穩定趨勢。指標性的元大台灣50 (0050)趨勢從中性改善至輕微正面，顯示大型股重拾動能。更重要的是，以股息為重點的基金的拋售潮似乎已暫停。群益台灣精選高息(00919)經歷了顯著改善，從非常負面的趨勢轉為中性。其他主要股息和ESG基金，如元大高股息(0056)和國泰永續高股息(00878)，則維持其中性評級，中止了進一步的惡化。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

U.S. Rally Hits a Wall on EU Tariff Threats; Taiwan Set to Surge on TSMC's Record AI-Driven Earnings

U.S. markets weigh geopolitical risk against strong fundamentals, while Taiwan's tech sector receives a powerful catalyst from its industry leader.

By Joe 盧, CFA | July 18, 2025

Executive Summary

• U.S. equities saw a late-day reversal from record highs as renewed EU trade tensions offset strong domestic economic data, while Taiwan's market is positioned for a strong open.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreated from intraday records and the Dow fell, signaling investor caution despite strong earnings from companies like Netflix and 3M.
• Treasury yields edged lower following dovish commentary from a Fed official, though the market consensus remains a rate cut later in the third quarter.
• Resilient U.S. retail sales and declining jobless claims reinforced a "Goldilocks" economic scenario of solid growth and contained inflation.
• Reports of a potential 15-20% U.S. minimum tariff on the EU have emerged as the primary risk factor, stalling the market's upward momentum.

U.S. optimism, fueled by solid corporate earnings and favorable economic reports, was abruptly checked by a fresh wave of geopolitical risk. This signals that while the domestic foundation is firm, external trade policy remains the primary obstacle to a sustained rally. The focus has decisively shifted from celebrating "Goldilocks" data to pricing in potential transatlantic trade friction ahead of an August 1 deadline.

Despite impressive results from bellwethers like Netflix, 3M, and American Express that confirm corporate and consumer health, the market's inability to hold new highs is telling. Dovish remarks from Fed Governor Waller, which pushed down bond yields, were not enough to overcome the tariff concerns. For now, the Federal Reserve remains on the sidelines with markets pricing in a September rate cut, leaving equities vulnerable to headline risk. The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain in a defined range, reflecting this tension between a slower growth outlook and inflation uncertainty.

In sharp contrast, the outlook for Taipei is unequivocally positive, driven by TSMC's historic second-quarter earnings. The company announced a substantial year-over-year surge in net profit and raised its annual revenue growth forecast significantly. This powerfully validates the ongoing AI and high-performance computing demand cycle, solidifying it as the dominant investment theme. The subsequent surge in TSMC's ADR, coupled with bullish technical indicators for the TAIEX and supportive institutional inflows, sets the stage for the index to attack new highs.

The immediate path forward indicates that while U.S. indices may consolidate as they digest trade news, Taiwan's market is positioned for a breakout led by its semiconductor ecosystem. The strategy is to focus on these leaders. The lagging performance of the OTC index relative to the main board reinforces a flight to quality and size. Investment focus should be on large-cap, high-performance names within the AI and TSMC supply chains, which are benefiting from clear, fundamental acceleration, while remaining watchful of the appreciating New Taiwan dollar and any pending tariff news that could introduce volatility.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

Today's report focuses on the largest exchange-traded funds in the U.S. and Taiwan, which reveal distinct investor sentiment in each market. The U.S. market continues to exhibit broad, sustained strength, with all major ETFs holding strong positive trends. In contrast, the Taiwanese market is showing signs of stabilization, as the previously sharp downturn in high-dividend ETFs has ceased.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The trend for the largest U.S. ETFs remains unchanged, confirming broad-based and persistent market strength. All five major index-tracking funds, including the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF, and the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1, maintained their Strongly Positive trend from the prior week. This stability at a high level of momentum signals sustained investor confidence in U.S. equities.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼
• Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: --, Last Week: --

A clear trend of stabilization has emerged in the Taiwanese ETF market. The bellwether Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF saw its trend improve from Neutral to Mildly Positive, indicating renewed momentum in large-cap stocks. More importantly, the sell-off in dividend-focused funds appears to have paused. The Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF experienced a significant improvement, shifting from a Strongly Negative trend to Neutral. Other major dividend and ESG funds, such as the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF and the Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF, held their Neutral ratings, halting further deterioration.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。