【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美國成長疑慮與關稅利空，覆蓋聯準會政策轉向預期

美國勞動市場降溫，台灣面臨20%關稅衝擊，為台股帶來波動與逆風

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月1日 美東時間

摘要

• 新的美國關稅措施及經濟放緩的跡象，蓋過了AI題材的利多，全球股市應聲回落。
• 在疲弱的就業報告公布之際，白宮對台灣加徵20%關稅，對台灣市場構成直接逆風，導致美國市場情緒轉為負面。
• 就業數據公布後，公債市場反映聯準會九月降息的機率高達94%。
• 美國新增就業73,000人，遠低於預期，且前幾個月的數據也遭大幅下修，證實勞動市場正在降溫。
• 全球新關稅措施的正式實施（平均稅率18%），雖消除了一層政策不確定性，但也確立了貿易摩擦將成為主要的市場驅動因素。

市場的首要關注點已從通貨膨脹，轉向經濟成長放緩與地緣政治貿易風險。疲弱的美國就業報告，以及對台灣加徵20%關稅的雙重衝擊，為台股加權指數(TAIEX)帶來了顯著的逆風。此一綜合性的影響力，壓過了聯準會可能轉向鴿派的潛在利多，預示著市場將進入風險趨避的態勢。這將考驗近期由AI帶動的漲勢，並可能在未來的交易日中引發波動。

美國的經濟數據呈現出清晰的減速景象。新增就業僅73,000人，加上前兩個月數據合計下修達258,000人，證實了勞動市場正加速降溫。此一情勢發展是推動美國公債殖利率轉變的催化劑。隨著固定收益市場已開始反應聯準會將在年底前降息的預期，10年期公債殖利率來到4.21%。白宮宣布的關稅措施，消除了自四月以來懸而未決的不確定性，但現在卻呈現出實質的經濟成本。對台灣而言，20%的稅率是一項重大利空，直接衝擊出口計算與企業利潤。

此波由總體經濟驅動的回檔，中斷了台灣股市在技術面上的強勢時期，先前台股受到AI產業長期順風的推動。鴻海(Hon Hai)與東元(TECO)針對AI資料中心的策略聯盟，以及摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)對CoWoS供應鏈前景的上修，都突顯了台灣核心產業的基本面實力。然而，這些企業層面的基本面，現在正面臨著全球總經壓力的抵銷力量。

展望下一個交易日，台股加權指數(TAIEX)預計將自近期高點進行修正。關稅不確定性的消除算是一項微小的利多，但其正面影響完全被美國經濟的成長恐慌以及20%關稅稅率的直接衝擊所抵銷。預期資金流動將趨於謹慎。儘管長期的AI投資論述依然完整，但必須應對美國經濟放緩的直接衝擊。關鍵問題在於，當市場為新的總經環境重新定價時，究竟是會進行盤整，還是會展開一波更大幅度的回檔。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

今日的報告檢視美國和台灣市場規模最大的指數股票型基金(ETF)。美國市場的ETF普遍呈現出從先前強勢減速的跡象。與此同時，台灣的ETF則顯示出更為顯著的負向轉變，預示市場的風險趨避情緒正在升高。

圖表一：美國資產管理規模前五大ETF (以美元計價)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲

按資產管理規模計，美國前五大ETF的週趨勢狀態均出現惡化。Vanguard S&P 500 ETF和Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1雙雙從強勢正向轉為正向。SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust、iShares Core S&P 500 ETF及Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF則全部從強勢正向滑落至中性。這代表美國核心股市的正面動能出現了同步降溫的現象。

圖表二：台灣資產管理規模主要ETF (以新台幣計價)

• 元大台灣50 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: --, 一週前: –
• 元大高股息 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
• 國泰永續高股息 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: ▼, 一週前: –
• 群益台灣精選高息 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼
• 富邦台50 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲

台灣主要ETF的趨勢輪廓有所轉弱。元大台灣50穩定維持在中性，元大高股息則保持負向。其他三檔關鍵基金的趨勢出現惡化。國泰永續高股息從中性轉為負向。群益台灣精選高息從負向惡化為強烈負向。富邦台50則從正向滑落至中性。這顯示投資者情緒出現了明確的負向轉變。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

US Growth Fears, Tariffs Displace Fed Pivot Hopes

A Decelerating U.S. Labor Market and a 20% Tariff on Taiwan Signal Volatility, Creating Headwinds for the TAIEX

By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/01/2025

Executive Summary

• Global equities retreated as new US tariffs and signs of an economic slowdown overshadowed the AI narrative.
• US market sentiment turned negative after a weak employment report coincided with the White House imposing a 20% tariff on Taiwan, a direct headwind for the domestic market.
• Treasury markets reflect a 94% probability of a September Federal Reserve rate cut following the jobs data.
• The US economy added 73,000 jobs, far below forecasts, with significant downward revisions to prior months confirming a cooling labor market.
• The formalization of new global tariffs, averaging 18%, removes a layer of policy uncertainty but establishes trade friction as a primary market driver.

The market’s primary focus has shifted from inflation to slowing growth and geopolitical trade risk. The dual shock of a weak U.S. jobs report and the imposition of a 20% tariff on Taiwan introduces significant headwinds for the TAIEX. This combination overrides the positive implications of a more dovish Federal Reserve, signaling a risk-off posture. This will test the recent AI-led rally and likely induce volatility in the trading sessions ahead.

The U.S. economic data presents a clear picture of deceleration. The addition of 73,000 jobs, coupled with downward revisions of 258,000 for the prior two months, confirms the labor market is cooling at an accelerated pace. This development was the catalyst for a shift in U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year reached 4.21% as fixed income markets moved to price in Fed rate cuts by year-end. The White House's tariff announcement, removing uncertainty lingering since April, now presents a tangible economic cost. For Taiwan, the 20% rate is a material negative directly impacting export calculations and corporate margins.

This macro-driven pullback interrupts a technically strong period for Taiwanese equities, which were propelled by secular tailwinds in the AI sector. The strategic alliance between Hon Hai and TECO targeting AI data centers and Morgan Stanley’s upgraded outlook on the CoWoS supply chain underscore the fundamental strength of Taiwan's core industries. These company-specific fundamentals now face the countervailing force of global macro pressures.

For the trading day ahead, the TAIEX is positioned to correct from its recent highs. The removal of tariff uncertainty is a minor positive, outweighed by the growth scare from the U.S. and the direct impact of the 20% rate. Expect cautious capital flows. The long-term AI thesis remains intact. You must navigate the immediate impact of a slowing U.S. economy. The key question is whether the market consolidates or begins a more significant pullback as it reprices for a new macro environment.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

Today's report examines the largest exchange-traded funds in the U.S. and Taiwan. U.S. market ETFs exhibit a broad-based deceleration from prior strength. Concurrently, Taiwanese ETFs show a more pronounced negative shift, signaling increasing risk aversion in the market.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: --, Last Week: ▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: --, Last Week: ▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: --, Last Week: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲

All five of the top U.S. ETFs by assets under management showed a deterioration in their weekly trend status. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and Invesco QQQ Trust both shifted from strongly positive to positive. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF all declined from strongly positive to neutral. This represents a coordinated cooling of positive momentum across the core U.S. equity market.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
• Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
• Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
• Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: --, Last Week: ▲

The trend profile for top Taiwanese ETFs weakened. Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF held stable at neutral and Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF remained negative. Three other key funds deteriorated. Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF fell from neutral to negative. Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF worsened from negative to strongly negative. Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF dropped from positive to neutral. This indicates a definitive negative shift in investor sentiment.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。