【Joe’s華爾街脈動】台股衝破關鍵線，台積電受惠美關稅結構

鴿派聯準會訊號激勵美股反彈，市場焦點轉向下週通膨數據

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月8日 美東時間

摘要

• 在聯準會九月降息的確定性增強下，美國市場以強勁復甦為本週劃下句點，台灣股市則一舉衝過關鍵關卡。
• 隨著美國半導體關稅政策的明朗化直接有利於台積電(TSMC)，台股加權指數(TAIEX)一舉突破關鍵技術水位，此走勢與那斯達克(Nasdaq)由科技股領軍的反彈相互輝映。
• 美國公債殖利率自週內低點回升，此訊號顯示，隨著上週勞動數據引發的立即性衰退擔憂消退，市場風險偏好有所轉變。
• 另一份來自北美(此次為加拿大)的疲弱勞動報告，在下週關鍵的美國CPI數據公布前，鞏固了市場對聯準會即將採取政策寬鬆的定價。
• 川普政府擬議的100%半導體關稅中，包含一項對在美設廠企業的策略性豁免，此舉為台灣關鍵出口商消除了重大的市場隱憂。

主要的市場驅動因素，在於美國對半導體關稅政策的最終定案。這為台積電(TSMC)及更廣泛的台灣科技產業，提供了清晰而直接的順風。該政策的明朗化，特別是豁免了在美設有製造廠房的企業，消除了市場的重大不確定性，並成為台股加權指數(TAIEX)大舉突破關鍵關卡的催化劑。大量的海外資金流入，證實了法人機構的堅定信心。此一本地市場的利多論述，也獲得了有利的全球背景所支撐：隨著市場預期聯準會九月降息的機率超過90%，美國股市強勁反彈。

在美國，市場已完全消化上週疲弱的非農就業數據，並將其重新解讀為貨幣寬鬆的綠燈。川普總統聲明有意提名被視為鴿派的米蘭(Miran)進入聯準會理事會，更強化了此一預期。債券市場展現出明確的風險偏好回歸態勢，10年期公債殖利率回升至4.28%，脫離了在勞動市場擔憂最盛時期所創下的週內低點。現在，市場焦點轉向下週的美國消費者物價指數(CPI)和生產者物價指數(PPI)報告，這些報告將為新的關稅體制對通膨的影響，提供第一手的實際數據。

台灣市場的技術面強勁。指數站上所有關鍵移動平均線之上，而諸如MACD指標轉正等訊號，也顯示出穩固的動能。5日移動平均線現在成為當前上升趨勢的直接支撐線。此一投資論述，在關稅議題明朗化之外，更獲得了基本面催化劑的支撐，這包括即將推出、採用台積電(TSMC) N3P製程的iPhone 17週期，以及對輝達(Nvidia) GB300 AI架構的持續需求。

展望下個交易日，預期市場將在這些高點進行盤整，以消化可觀的漲幅。當前的市場佈局，反映出焦點集中在績效優異、流動性強的大型科技權值股。半導體供應鏈、AI相關概念股以及印刷電路板(PCB)製造商，有望持續扮演領漲角色。市場的主流動能偏向多頭，後續指數若有拉回至5日移動平均線，將是觀察支撐的關鍵技術水位。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

今日的報告涵蓋美國和台灣市場規模最大的指數股票型基金(ETF)。美國市場的ETF正展現出廣泛且加速的強勢。台灣的ETF市場景觀則顯示，資金正流向大盤型基金，並撤出高股息策略。

圖表一：美國資產管理規模前五大ETF (以美元計價)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: –
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: –
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: –
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲

美國最大型ETF的動能普遍增強。SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust、iShares Core S&P 500 ETF以及Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF的趨勢均從中性轉為強勢正向。Vanguard S&P 500 ETF和Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1則從正向改善為強勢正向。此一同向的轉強，預示著市場對美股此波漲勢具有廣泛的信心。

圖表二：台灣資產管理規模主要ETF (以新台幣計價)

• 元大台灣50 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: –
• 元大高股息 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: –, 一週前: ▼
• 國泰永續高股息 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: –, 一週前: ▼
• 群益台灣精選高息 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
• 富邦台50 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: –

台灣ETF市場呈現明顯的績效分歧。大盤型的元大台灣50和富邦台50，其趨勢均從中性顯著改善至強勢正向。相較之下，高股息策略則表現落後。元大高股息和國泰永續高股息僅從負向改善至中性。群益台灣精選高息則穩定維持在強烈負向的趨勢。此一動態，暗示了一波典型的風險偏好輪動。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

TAIEX Breaches Key Threshold as U.S. Tariff Structure Provides Direct Catalyst for TSMC

U.S. Equities Rally on Dovish Fed Signals, Shifting Focus to Next Week's Inflation Data

By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/08/2025

Executive Summary

• U.S. markets concluded the week with a strong recovery, driven by increasing certainty of a September Fed rate cut. Taiwanese equities surged past a key psychological barrier.
• The TAIEX surpassed a key technical level as clarity on U.S. semiconductor tariffs directly favored TSMC. This move was mirrored by a tech-led rally in the Nasdaq.
• U.S. Treasury yields rose from their weekly lows. This signals a risk-on shift as immediate recessionary fears linked to last week's labor data subsided.
• Another weak North American labor report, this time from Canada, solidified market pricing for imminent Fed policy easing ahead of next week's critical U.S. CPI release.
• The Trump administration's proposed 100% semiconductor tariff includes a strategic exemption for firms with U.S. facilities. This removes a major overhang for key Taiwanese exporters.

The primary market driver is the resolution of U.S. tariff policy on semiconductors. This provides a clear and direct tailwind for TSMC and the broader Taiwan technology sector. The policy clarification, exempting firms with U.S. fabrication plants, removed significant uncertainty. It was the direct catalyst for the TAIEX's substantial advance past a key threshold. Significant inflows from foreign capital confirmed strong institutional conviction. This local narrative is supported by a favorable global backdrop. U.S. equities rallied as markets priced in a greater than 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.

In the United States, the market fully digested last week's weak non-farm payrolls data, reinterpreting it as a green light for monetary easing. President Trump's stated intent to nominate Miran, who is perceived as dovish, to the Fed board reinforces this expectation. The bond market is exhibiting a clear risk-on posture. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.28%, moving away from the weekly lows seen during the height of labor market concerns. The focus now shifts to next week's U.S. CPI and PPI reports. These reports will provide the first hard data on the inflationary impact of the new tariff regime.

The technical posture of the Taiwan market is strong. The index is above all key moving averages, and indicators such as the MACD turning positive signal solid momentum. The 5-day moving average now acts as the immediate line of support for the current uptrend. For you, the investment thesis is bolstered by fundamental catalysts beyond the tariff resolution. These include the upcoming iPhone 17 cycle utilizing TSMC's N3P process and sustained demand for Nvidia's GB300 AI architecture.

For the session ahead, expect consolidation at these elevated levels as the market absorbs the significant gains. Current market positioning reflects a focus on high-performance, large-cap technology stocks with strong liquidity. The semiconductor supply chain, AI-related names, and PCB manufacturers are positioned to continue their leadership. The prevailing momentum is bullish. Pullbacks toward the 5-day moving average represent a key technical level for observation.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

Today's report covers the largest exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. and Taiwan. U.S. market ETFs are exhibiting broad, accelerating strength. The Taiwanese ETF landscape shows capital flowing toward broad-market funds and away from high-dividend strategies.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲

Momentum across the largest U.S. ETFs improved. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF all shifted from neutral to strongly positive. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 improved from positive to strongly positive. This uniform strengthening signals broad-based conviction in the U.S. equity rally.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --
• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
• Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: --, Last Week: ▼
• Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --

The Taiwanese ETF market shows a clear performance split. The broad-market Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF both saw their trends improve markedly from neutral to strongly positive. In contrast, high-dividend strategies are lagging. The Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF and Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF improved only from negative to neutral. The Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF remained stable in a strongly negative trend. This activity suggests a classic risk-on rotation.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。