【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美國消費數據疲弱助燃降息押注與市場漲勢

特定美國指標指向經濟放緩，台股在外資創紀錄流入與AI熱潮帶動下，本週逼近歷史高點

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月15日 美東時間

摘要

• 全球股市的動能，主要由市場對聯準會九月降息的堅定預期所驅動，此預期蓋過了美國經濟放緩的報告。
• 美國指數在消費數據公布後小幅回檔，結束了強勁的一週；而台灣的台股加權指數(TAIEX)則在台積電(TSMC)和AI類股的帶領下，本週飆升至歷史新高邊緣。
• 在市場消化經濟報告之際，美國公債殖利率曲線全面上揚，市場靜待下週的傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)全球央行年會。
• 美國零售銷售數據優於預期，但密西根大學消費者信心指數的大幅下滑，揭示了潛在的疲軟以及對通膨的擔憂。
• 儘管美俄總統會晤提供了一個背景，市場的主要焦點仍牢牢鎖定在央行政策以及美國經濟的軌跡上。

美國經濟基本面的走弱，正為風險性資產的上漲提供助力。這種「壞消息就是好消息」的市場動態——即消費放緩跡象被解讀為聯準會即將寬鬆的確認——已成為推動美國科技指數和台灣股市雙雙走高的主要力量。台股加權指數(TAIEX)收盤僅一步之遙即達歷史新高，是此一全球流動性論述的直接結果，而非強勁、同步的全球增長指標。

最新的美國數據呈現出值得投資者深入關注的矛盾資訊。七月份零售銷售穩健成長0.5%，但此增長主要由電商促銷活動所領導，帶有一定短期性與扭曲效應。更令人擔憂的是，密西根大學消費者信心指數大幅下滑，預示通膨和疲弱的勞動市場正開始侵蝕消費者信心，這才是影響後市的關鍵數據點。此報告為聯準會提供了市場所已定價的降息理由，FedWatch工具目前顯示九月降息的機率高達94%。所有注意力現已轉向聯準會主席鮑爾在傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)全球央行年會上的演說，以尋求對政策路徑的最終確認。

對台灣而言，此一環境非常有利。美國貨幣寬鬆的前景，釋放了巨額的外資流入，這些資金被直接引導至全球AI供應鏈。台積電(TSMC)突破關鍵關卡是此一趨勢的領頭羊。資金輪動至電子、機器人及先進材料等相關領域，證實了此波漲勢的擴散。台股加權指數(TAIEX)的技術面格局明確偏多，買盤動能強勁，所有關鍵移動平均線均處於長期上升趨勢。

展望未來，台灣股市的上漲動能有望突破至歷史新高。此動能取決於聯準會是否會驗證市場的預期。在傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)年會上，任何偏離預期鴿派論調的鷹派轉向，都將構成對此波漲勢的最大單一風險。對於績效優異的大型科技龍頭股的部位而言，監控聯準會的言論，將是決定市場短期走向的最終關鍵因素。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

美國大型股ETF展現出一致且持續的強勢。相較之下，台灣ETF市場則呈現分歧的表現趨勢。大盤市值型基金表現良好，而股息導向的策略則轉弱，預示著投資者偏好的轉變。

圖表一：美國資產管理規模前五大ETF (以美元計價)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

以標準普爾500指數和整體市場基金為主的最大型美國ETF，展現出穩定且強勢正向的趨勢。包括以科技股為主的Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1在內，這些頂尖基金趨勢的一致性，表明市場對美國大型股具有持續且廣泛的信心。所有五檔基金均維持其前一週的趨勢狀態。

圖表二：台灣資產管理規模主要ETF (以新台幣計價)

• 元大台灣50 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 元大高股息 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
• 國泰永續高股息 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
• 群益台灣精選高息 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
• 富邦台50 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

台灣ETF市場呈現出對比鮮明的趨勢。市值加權型的基金，如元大台灣50和富邦台50，維持其強勢正向的趨勢。相較之下，股息導向策略的趨勢則有所惡化。元大高股息和國泰永續高股息均從中性轉為負向。群益台灣精選高息則維持在強烈負向趨

勢，強化了投資者正從高收益策略輪動而出的格局。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

U.S. Consumer Weakness Fuels Rate Cut Bets and Market Rally

Taiwan's TAIEX nears its all-time peak, driven by record foreign inflows and AI enthusiasm, as specific U.S. indicators point to a slowing economy.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 08/15/2025

Executive Summary

• Global equity momentum is driven by firm expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut, overshadowing reports of a slowing U.S. economy.
• U.S. indices finished a strong week with a slight pullback on consumer data, while Taiwan's TAIEX surged to the brink of a new record high, led by TSMC and the AI sector.
• U.S. Treasury yields rose across the curve as markets digest economic reports ahead of next week's Jackson Hole symposium.
• U.S. retail sales beat expectations, but a sharp decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index reveals underlying weakness and concern over inflation.
• While a U.S.-Russia presidential meeting provides a backdrop, the market's primary focus remains locked on central bank policy and the trajectory of the U.S. economy.

Weakening U.S. economic fundamentals are fueling a rally in risk assets. This "bad news is good news" dynamic, where signs of a slowing consumer are interpreted as confirmation of imminent Federal Reserve easing, is the primary force propelling both U.S. tech indices and Taiwanese equities. The TAIEX closing just shy of its all-time high is a direct result of this global liquidity narrative, not an indication of robust, synchronized global growth.

The latest U.S. data presents contrasting information that demands your scrutiny. July retail sales rose a solid 0.5%, but the increase was heavily skewed by e-commerce promotions. More concerning is the sharp drop in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. This index signals that inflation and a softening labor market are beginning to erode confidence. This is the crucial data point. The report gives the Federal Reserve justification for the rate cut the market has already priced in, with the FedWatch tool now indicating a 94% probability for September. All attention now shifts to Fed Chair Powell's address at the Jackson Hole symposium for confirmation.

For Taiwan, this environment has been exceptionally favorable. The prospect of U.S. monetary easing unlocked massive foreign capital inflows. These funds are channeled directly into the global AI supply chain. TSMC's breach of a key threshold is the bellwether for this trend. The capital rotation into related sectors such as electronics, robotics, and advanced materials confirms a broadening of the rally. The technical posture of the TAIEX is unambiguously bullish, with strong buying momentum and all key moving averages in a long-term uptrend.

Looking ahead, the upward momentum in Taiwan stocks is positioned to test the all-time high. This momentum is contingent on the Federal Reserve validating market expectations. Any hawkish deviation from the anticipated dovish script at Jackson Hole constitutes the single largest risk to this rally. Monitoring Fed rhetoric is the ultimate arbiter of near-term market direction for your positions in high-performing, large-cap technology leaders.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

U.S. large-cap ETFs display uniform, sustained strength. In contrast, the Taiwanese ETF market shows differing performance trends. Broad market-cap funds perform well, while dividend-focused strategies weaken, signaling a shift in investor preference.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The largest U.S. ETFs, dominated by S&P 500 and total market funds, exhibit a stable and strongly positive trend. This uniformity across the top funds, including the tech-focused Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1, indicates sustained, broad-based conviction in U.S. large-cap equities. All five funds maintained their prior week's trend status.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
• Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
• Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The Taiwanese ETF market shows contrasting trends. Market-cap weighted funds like the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF held their strongly positive trends. In contrast, the trend for dividend-focused strategies deteriorated. The Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF and Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF both shifted from neutral to negative. The Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF remains in a strongly negative trend, reinforcing a pattern of investor rotation away from high-yield strategies.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。