【Joe’s華爾街脈動】數據支持聯準會寬鬆政策，台股揭示資金輪動格局

主要指數在PCE數據公布前暫歇，資金轉進中小型題材股

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年8月29日 美東時間

摘要

• 在聯準會關鍵決策前，投資者正權衡強勁的成長數據與持續的通膨，美國股市因而走低。
• 台灣市場正發生明顯轉變，AI權值股回檔，資金則流入中小型題材股。
• 美國公債殖利率維持穩定，10年期公債殖利率接近4.2%，顯示債券市場對經濟前景具信心。
• 美國第二季GDP上修至3.3%，而七月份核心PCE通膨則微升至2.9%，為決策者呈現了複雜的情境。
• 聯準會主席鮑爾釋出調整政策的意願，承認儘管通膨仍是隱憂，但就業市場的風險正在升高。

市場的主要訊號是高檔盤整以及劇烈的內部輪動。美國市場在上週五暫歇，結束了連續第四個月的正報酬。台灣市場的動態則揭示了一場從大型AI龍頭股，轉向規模較小、題材性股票的果斷短期轉變。近期的獲利了結，以及在軍工、印刷電路板(PCB)和機器人等其他領域尋求報酬的行為，是當前市場的主導驅動因素。

美國的總體經濟背景支持九月份降息。第二季GDP成長率上修至強勁的3.3%，以及22.9萬人的低初請領失業金人數，皆顯示了經濟的韌性。此一強勁表現，正對比聯準會偏好的通膨指標—核心個人消費支出(PCE)價格指數，該指數在七月份微幅走高至2.9%。在傑克森霍爾(Jackson Hole)全球央行年會上，聯準會主席鮑爾承認此一艱難的平衡，他表示，儘管通膨揮之不去，勞動市場日益升高的下行風險，可能使政策調整具備正當性。10年期公債殖利率的穩定，顯示債券市場已將此一前景納入定價。

在台灣，此一全球圖像產生了特定的效應。台積電(TSMC)等權值股的回檔，是對輝達(Nvidia)最新財報的直接反應，其資料中心營收成長未達市場的高度預期。市場的潛在力道，在資金強勁地輪動至中小型股中清晰可見，櫃買(OTC)指數創下新高，數十家公司攻上漲停。國內消費者信心的轉弱，則帶來了本地的逆風。前瞻性的論述，由強勁的催化劑所形塑，這包括蘋果(Apple)即將推出的新產品，以及巨大且持續的AI基礎設施需求—輝達執行長已證實，其頂級晶片已完全售罄。

短期展望來看，在類股輪動的驅動下，主要指數將持續波動。櫃買(OTC)市場的突出表現，是當前風險偏好的最清晰訊號。此環境為投資者的投資組合帶來了一個核心問題：如何在長期佈局AI曝險的同時，應對這些進入其他高動能類股的短期戰術性轉變？在核心持股與新機會之間的配置，需要審慎的考量。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF

今日的分析轉向主要指數股票型基金(ETF)的資金流向。ETF的趨勢證實了更廣泛的市場論述。美國大型股基金展現出持續的強勢。在台灣，大盤型ETF與高股息策略之間已出現顯著的績效差距，此訊號顯示投資者的偏好出現明顯轉變，值得密切監控。

圖表一：美國資產管理規模前五大ETF (以美元計價)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲

追蹤標普500指數和整體股市的最大型美國ETF，維持其強勢正向的趨勢，這表明市場對美國核心市場的信心持續。追蹤那斯達克100指數的Invesco QQQ Trust則觀察到輕微變化，其趨勢從強勢正向趨緩為正向，與近期特定科技龍頭股動能流失的現象一致。

圖表二：台灣資產管理規模主要ETF (以新台幣計價)

• 元大台灣50 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
• 元大高股息 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼
• 國泰永續高股息 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
• 群益台灣精選高息 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
• 富邦台50 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲

台灣的ETF市場景觀揭示了一場關鍵的輪動。兩檔追蹤台灣50指數的最大型基金—0050和006208—其趨勢雙雙從正向轉強為強勢正向。形成鮮明對比的是，兩檔最大的高股息ETF—00878和00919—則維持其強烈負向的趨勢。0056高股息ETF則觀察到一個正向轉變，從強烈負向改善為中性。數據顯示，資金正明確地從股息導向的策略，流向廣泛的大型股市場曝險。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

U.S. Data Supports Fed Easing, TAIEX Reveals Capital Rotation

Major Indices Pause as Funds Move to Thematic Small-Caps; PCE Data Looms

By Joe 盧, CFA | August 30, 2025

Executive Summary

• U.S. equities moved lower as investors considered strong growth data against persistent inflation ahead of a key Fed decision.
• A clear shift is underway in Taiwan, where AI heavyweights are retreating while capital flows into small-cap thematic plays.
• U.S. Treasury yields held stable, with the 10-year note near 4.2 percent, showing bond market confidence in the economic outlook.
• U.S. Q2 GDP was revised higher to 3.3 percent, while July's core PCE inflation ticked up to 2.9 percent, presenting a complex scenario for policymakers.
• Fed Chair Powell signaled a willingness to adjust policy, acknowledging that risks to employment are rising even as inflation remains a concern.

The primary market signal is high-level consolidation and sharp internal rotation. U.S. markets paused on Friday to close a fourth consecutive positive month. The action in Taiwan reveals a decisive, short-term shift from large-cap AI leaders to smaller, thematic stocks. Near-term profit-taking and a search for returns in other sectors, namely military, PCBs, and robotics, are the dominant market drivers.

The macroeconomic backdrop in the United States supports a September rate cut. The upward revision of Q2 GDP growth to a robust 3.3 percent and low initial jobless claims of 229,000 show economic resilience. This strength is set against the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, which edged higher to 2.9 percent in July. At the Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged this difficult balance. He stated that rising downside risks to the labor market could warrant a policy adjustment despite lingering inflation. The stability of the 10-year Treasury yield shows the bond market has priced in this outlook.

In Taiwan, the global picture has a specific effect. The pullback in TAIEX heavyweights like TSMC was a direct reaction to Nvidia's latest report, where data center revenue growth did not meet high expectations. The market's underlying strength is evident in the vigorous rotation into small- and mid-cap stocks. The OTC index reached new highs and dozens of firms hit their daily limit. Weakening domestic consumer confidence presents a local headwind. The forward-looking narrative is shaped by strong catalysts. These include Apple's upcoming product launch and immense, ongoing AI infrastructure demand. Nvidia's CEO confirmed top-tier chips are completely sold out.

The immediate outlook is for continued fluctuation in the main index, driven by this sector rotation. The outperformance of the OTC market is the clearest signal of current risk appetite. This environment presents a central question for your portfolio. How should you position for long-term AI exposure while navigating these short-term tactical shifts into other high-momentum sectors? Your allocation between core holdings and new opportunities requires careful consideration.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETFs

Today's analysis turns to the flow of capital through major exchange-traded funds. The ETF trends confirm the broader market narrative. U.S. large-cap funds show persistent strength. In Taiwan, a significant performance gap has opened between broad market ETFs and high-dividend strategies. This signals a clear investor preference shift that you must monitor.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The largest U.S. ETFs, which track the S&P 500 and the total stock market, maintained their strongly positive trends. This indicates sustained confidence in the core of the U.S. market. A slight change was observed in the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq-100. Its trend eased from strongly positive to positive, aligning with the recent loss of momentum in select technology leaders.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼
• Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲

Taiwan's ETF landscape reveals a critical rotation. The two largest funds tracking the Taiwan Top 50, 0050 and 006208, both saw their trends strengthen from positive to strongly positive. In sharp contrast, two of the largest high-dividend ETFs, 00878 and 00919, held their strongly negative trends. A positive shift was observed in the 0056 dividend ETF, which improved from strongly negative to neutral. The data shows a clear flight from dividend-focused strategies toward broad, large-cap market exposure.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。