【Joe’s華爾街脈動】美國就業放緩加深降息預期，加劇衰退疑慮

2025/09/06

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美國經濟數據推低殖利率；台灣科技股焦點仍是AI催化劑與即將登場的iPhone發表會

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月5日美東時間

摘要

在疲弱的就業報告鞏固了聯準會降息的預期後，美國股市因應成長擔憂而反應，固定收益資產需求則增加。
隨著衰退的恐懼蓋過了貨幣寬鬆的前景，美國指數回吐早盤漲幅。博通(Broadcom)則宣布了一項重大的AI相關合約。
公債市場價格上揚，殖利率大幅走低，2年期公債殖利率觸及多年低點，因市場已完全反應九月份降息。
美國八月份非農就業僅增加2.2萬個工作崗位，證實了勞動市場正在降溫，並使市場焦點轉向下週的CPI通膨報告。
台灣方面，將優惠房貸排除在銀行放款上限之外的國內政策變動，點燃了台灣營建類股的顯著行情，為本地資金創造了新的焦點。

美國勞動市場的放緩，正將市場論述從軟著陸轉向經濟衰退的風險。八月份的就業報告顯示僅新增2.2萬個工作崗位，遠低於預期的7.5萬人。數據公布後，各資產類別反應分歧。債券市場方面，隨著交易員為確定的九月降息進行定價，公債價格上揚、殖利率走低。股票市場則顯現憂慮，最初對較低利率的正面反應，隨著對經濟需求惡化的擔憂加劇而被逆轉。市場現在正權衡寬鬆貨幣政策的好處，與潛在衰退的衝擊。

就業報告的細節進一步證實了廣泛的放緩趨勢。前幾個月數據的下修以及薪資成長的減速，給予了聯準會明確的行動理由。市場目前評估，9月17日會議上降息的機率接近100%。下週的消費者物價指數(CPI)通膨數據，仍是一個關鍵變數，需要出現顯著的意外通膨上揚，才可能扭轉此一進程。聯準會的立場已從對抗通膨，轉向預防經濟下滑。

對台灣市場而言，美國的放緩帶來了複雜的總體經濟逆風，然而，特定產業的催化因素仍持續驅動著市場。全球AI論述依然是科技產業的主要引擎，博通(Broadcom)的財報及其揭露的一位新的100億美元AI晶片客戶，突顯了此點。此一消息，加上即將到來、搭載谷歌(Google) Gemini AI的蘋果(Apple) iPhone發表會，為包含台積電(TSMC)和鴻海(Hon Hai)在內的供應鏈，提供了直接的順風。

展望未來，台股加權指數(TAIEX)將在美國的成長疑慮與強勁的本地驅動因素之間尋找方向。營建類股已浮現新的國內題材，受惠於政府決定將特定房貸排除於銀行放款上限之外。此一政策變動鬆綁並釋出了資金，為營建產業注入動能，也為大盤提供了抵禦國際波動的緩衝。大盤需要持續的成交量，才能建立明確的趨勢。此一輪動為您的策略帶來了關鍵問題：投資組合應如何在面向全球的科技股與專注於國內的個股之間進行佈局？

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

今日的報告檢視美國和台灣的指數股票型基金(ETF)市場景觀。美國大型股ETF展現出基礎廣泛、強勢正向的動能。相較之下，台灣受歡迎的高股息ETF則顯著疲弱，與其自身的大型權值股指數基金的強勢形成對比。

圖表一：美國資產管理規模前五大ETF (以美元計價)

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲

按資產計，美國最大型的ETF預示著持續的正向情緒。核心的標普500指數和整體市場追蹤基金，包括Vanguard S&P 500 ETF、SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust、iShares Core S&P 500 ETF及Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF，均維持其強勢正向趨勢。以科技股為主的Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1的趨勢則增強為強勢正向，顯示美國大型股的動能正在鞏固。

圖表二：台灣資產管理規模主要ETF (以新台幣計價)

元大台灣50 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
元大高股息 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --
國泰永續高股息 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
群益台灣精選高息 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼▼
富邦台50 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

台灣ETF市場定義了清晰的趨勢分離。指標性的追蹤基金，如元大台灣50和富邦台50，維持穩定、強勢正向的趨勢。相較之下，股息導向的策略則呈現負向趨勢。元大高股息的趨勢從中性惡化為負向。國泰永續高股息則維持強烈負向。群益台灣精選高息的負向動能雖略有緩和，但並未改變高收益類別的負向展望。此現象預示著投資者正明確地從此一因子輪動而出。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

U.S. Hiring Slowdown Cements Rate Cut Outlook, Intensifies Recession Concerns

U.S. Economic Data Drives Yields Lower; Taiwan Tech Focus Remains on AI Catalysts, iPhone Launch

By Joe 盧, CFA | 09/05/2025

Executive Summary

U.S. equities reacted to growth concerns while fixed income saw increased demand after a weak jobs report cemented Fed rate-cut expectations.
U.S. indices gave up early gains as recessionary fears overshadowed the prospect of monetary easing. Broadcom announced a major AI-related contract.
Treasury yields moved significantly lower, with the 2-year note yield reaching a multi-year low, as markets fully priced in a September rate cut.
U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August. This confirms a cooling labor market and shifts focus to next week's CPI inflation report.
A domestic policy change removing lending caps on preferential mortgages ignited significant activity in Taiwan's construction sector, creating a new focus for local capital.

The U.S. labor market slowdown is shifting the market narrative from a soft landing to the risk of an economic contraction. The August employment report, showing 22,000 jobs created against expectations of 75,000, created separate reactions across asset classes. Bond markets reacted to the data, with yields moving lower as traders priced in a definitive September rate cut. Equity markets displayed apprehension. An initial positive reaction to lower rates was reversed as concerns about deteriorating economic demand grew. The market now weighs the benefit of looser monetary policy against the impact of a potential recession.

Details of the jobs report confirm a broad slowdown. Downward revisions to prior months and decelerating wage growth give the Federal Reserve a clear reason to act. The market now assesses a near-100% probability of a rate cut at the September 17 meeting. Next week’s CPI inflation data remains a key variable. A significant upside inflation shock would be required to derail this course. The Fed's posture has shifted from fighting inflation to preempting a downturn.

For Taiwanese markets, the U.S. slowdown presents a complex macro headwind. Sector-specific catalysts continue to drive the market. The global AI narrative remains the primary engine for the tech sector. This is underscored by Broadcom's earnings report and its disclosure of a new $10 billion AI chip customer. This, combined with the imminent Apple iPhone launch featuring Google's Gemini AI, provides a direct tailwind for the supply chain, including TSMC and Hon Hai.

Looking ahead, the TAIEX will navigate U.S. growth fears and strong local drivers. A domestic theme has emerged in the construction sector, fueled by the government’s decision to exempt certain mortgages from bank lending limits. This policy change has unlocked capital flow into the sector, providing a buffer against international volatility. Sustained trading volume is necessary for the broader index to establish a clear trend. This rotation presents a key question for your strategy: how will you position your portfolio between global-facing tech and domestically-focused names?

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

Today's report examines the exchange-traded fund landscape in the U.S. and Taiwan. U.S. large-cap ETFs exhibit broad-based, strongly positive momentum. In contrast, Taiwan's popular high-dividend ETFs show significant weakness, differing from the strength of its own large-cap index funds.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲

The largest U.S. ETFs by assets signal sustained positive sentiment. The core S&P 500 and total market trackers, including Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF, all maintained their strongly positive trends. The trend for the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 strengthened to strongly positive, indicating solidifying momentum across U.S. large-cap equity.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

A clear separation in trends defines the Taiwanese ETF market. The benchmark trackers, Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF, remain in stable, strongly positive trends. In contrast, dividend-focused strategies show negative trends. The trend for Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF deteriorated from neutral to negative. Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF remains strongly negative. The slight easing of negative momentum for Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF does not change the negative outlook for the high-yield category. This signals a clear investor rotation away from this factor.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。