【Joe’s華爾街脈動】通膨數據激勵美股反彈，市場焦點轉向殖利率與台股類股輪動

2025/09/27

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美股因通膨數據符合預期而上漲，但公債殖利率攀升與地緣政治逆風，呈現出複雜的局勢

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年9月26日美東時間

摘要

美國市場因通膨數據符合預期而上漲，但攀升的公債殖利率和地緣政治因素，預示著一個複雜的風險環境。
美國股市漲勢普遍，由公用事業和非必需消費品類股領漲。在美國發表晶片多元化評論後，台灣市場面臨資金從台積電(TSMC)輪動的壓力。
10年期美國公債殖利率攀升至4.18%。這表明儘管個人消費支出(PCE)報告符合預期，固定收益市場仍對持續的通膨壓力保持警惕。
核心個人消費支出(PCE)通膨率如預期般穩定在2.9%。強勁的個人收入和支出數據，突顯了消費者信心，但也使聯準會的政策路徑變得複雜。
俄羅斯削減燃料出口正推升油價。美國提議的關稅及晶片供應鏈多元化的評論，則直接影響亞洲市場。

核心的觀點在於美國股市與債市之間傳遞出的矛盾訊號。股市因個人消費支出(PCE)報告未帶來負面意外而反彈。然而，債券市場的反應則暗示了潛在的擔憂並未解決。公債殖利率的上揚，反映了服務業通膨的持續以及強勁的消費者支出。這為各國央行創造了一個充滿挑戰的環境。美國的宏觀經濟多空交錯，正與特定的本地市場驅動因素相互影響。

在美國，核心PCE物價指數年增率維持在2.9%，使股市投資者得以排除立即性的通膨威脅。漲勢普遍，由對利率敏感的公用事業股和非必需消費品股領漲。數據證實，在居住成本的推動下，服務業通膨率仍高達3.6%。個人收入和消費數據雙雙超出預期，分別增長0.4%和0.6%，顯示出消費者的韌性。強勁的消費者雖能支持經濟成長，卻也為通膨火上澆油。債券市場已識別出此一風險，推動10年期公債殖利率升至4.18%，並強化了聯準會要達到2%通膨目標的路徑依然漫長的觀點。

對於台股加權指數(TAIEX)而言，此一背景加劇了其內部的類股輪動。市場持續消化美國財政部長關於晶片生產戰略性轉移的言論。這些評論對台積電(TSMC)造成了直接的賣壓。週四的盤勢顯示出清晰的資金重新配置。資金從這家半導體領頭羊流出，轉向其他族群。此輪動是法人為管理投資組合中的集中度風險，所採取的防禦性操作。

展望下一個交易日，美股的正面收盤為台股提供了建設性的開盤基礎。然而，潛在的負面驅動因素依然存在，包括對台積電(TSMC)的壓力、美國政府關門的風險以及不斷上升的公債殖利率。若未能守住5日移動平均線，將是短期修正的訊號。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

今日的分析揭示了美國與台灣ETF市場的兩種不同景象。美國規模最大的ETF呈現一致且持續的強勢，顯示市場具備廣泛的信念。台灣市場則呈現兩種獨特趨勢。大盤ETF表現良好，但高股息策略的基金則呈現中性或下降趨勢，預示著明確的投資者輪動。

圖表一：美國資產管理規模(AUM)排名前五大ETF(美元計價)

Vanguard標普500 ETF(Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
SPDR標普500 ETF信託(Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
iShares核心標普500 ETF(Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
Vanguard整體股市指數基金ETF(Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
Invesco QQQ信託系列1(Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲

美國規模最大的幾檔指數股票型基金趨勢持續正向。Vanguard標普500 ETF、SPDR標普500 ETF信託、iShares核心標普500 ETF、Vanguard整體股市指數基金ETF，以及Invesco QQQ信託系列1在過去一週均維持其強烈正向的趨勢。這象徵著整個美國市場的買方具備廣泛的信念。

圖表二：台灣資產管理規模(AUM)排名前列ETF(新台幣計價)

元大台灣卓越50 ETF(Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲
元大高股息ETF(Ticker: 0056): 當前: --, 上週: --
國泰永續高股息ETF(Ticker: 00878): 當前: --, 上週: --
群益台灣精選高息ETF(Ticker: 00919): 當前: ▼▼, 上週: ▼▼
富邦台灣釆吉50 ETF(Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲▲, 上週: ▲▲

兩種不同的趨勢定義了台灣ETF的市場格局。大盤型的元大台灣卓越50 ETF和富邦台灣釆吉50 ETF雙雙維持強烈正向趨勢。與此同時，側重股息的策略則表現落後。元大高股息ETF和國泰永續高股息ETF維持中性狀態。群益台灣精選高息ETF則保持強烈負向。此一模式表明，資金正從高收益策略流出，轉向大盤指數型商品。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Inflation Data Sparks U.S. Equity Rally; Focus Shifts to Yields and Taiwan Sector Rotation

U.S. stocks advanced as inflation met forecasts. Rising Treasury yields and geopolitical headwinds present a complex backdrop.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 09/26/2025

Executive Summary

U.S. markets advanced on expected inflation data, but rising yields and geopolitical factors signal a complex risk environment.
Equity gains were broad. Utilities and discretionary sectors led. Taiwan faces a rotation away from TSMC following U.S. chip diversification comments.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.18%. This indicates fixed-income markets are wary of persistent inflationary pressures despite the in-line PCE report.
Core PCE inflation held steady at 2.9% as expected. Robust personal income and spending data underscore consumer strength that complicates the Fed's path.
Russian fuel export cuts are driving oil prices higher. Proposed U.S. tariffs and chip supply chain diversification comments directly affect Asian markets.

The primary takeaway is the conflicting signals from U.S. equity and bond markets. Stocks rallied on a Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report with no negative surprises. The bond market’s reaction signals underlying concerns are not resolved. Rising Treasury yields reflect persistent services inflation and robust consumer spending. This creates a challenging environment for central banks. TU.S. macro crosscurrents are intersecting with specific local market drivers.

In the U.S., the core PCE price index holding at 2.9% annually allowed equity investors to price out an immediate inflation threat. Gains were broad, led by rate-sensitive utilities and consumer discretionary stocks. The data confirms services inflation remains elevated at 3.6%, driven by shelter costs. Personal income and consumption figures both exceeded estimates, rising 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. This indicates a resilient consumer. A strong consumer supports economic growth and also provides fuel for inflation. The bond market identifies this risk, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.18% and reinforcing that the path to the Fed's 2% target remains protracted.

For the TAIEX, this backdrop amplifies an internal rotation. The market continues to digest the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s remarks regarding the strategic relocation of chip production. These comments placed direct selling pressure on TSMC. Thursday's session showed a clear reallocation of capital. Funds flowed out of the semiconductor bellwether and into other groups. This rotation is a defensive maneuver by institutional investors managing concentration risk in their portfolios.

Looking to the trading day ahead, the TAIEX faces a critical test. The index is in a high-level consolidation pattern. The positive U.S. close provides a constructive open. The underlying negative drivers, including pressure on TSMC, U.S. government shutdown risk, and rising yields, remain. A failure to hold the 5-day moving average signals a near-term correction.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

Today's analysis reveals two different pictures in U.S. and Taiwanese ETF markets. The largest U.S. ETFs show uniform, sustained strength, indicating broad market conviction. The Taiwanese market shows two distinct trends. Broad-market ETFs are performing well, but high-dividend strategies are either neutral or in a downtrend, signaling a clear investor rotation.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The trend for the largest U.S. exchange-traded funds is consistently positive. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF, and Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 all maintained their strongly positive trends over the past week. This signals broad conviction from buyers across the U.S. market.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: --, Last Week: --
Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: --, Last Week: --
Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

Two separate trends define the Taiwanese ETF landscape. The broad-market Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF and Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF both maintained strongly positive trends. At the same time, dividend-focused strategies are underperforming. The Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF and Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF held their neutral status. The Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF remained strongly negative. This pattern indicates capital is flowing out of high-yield strategies and into broad market indices.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。