【Joe’s華爾街脈動】AI動能確立，台灣半導體供應鏈蓄勢待發

2025/10/18

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台積電強勁展望，為先進封裝、材料與設備產業提供清晰路線圖。

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月17日美東時間

摘要

隨著區域性銀行及貿易論述的短期擔憂消退，美股反彈。
潛在的市場驅動力，仍是AI基礎設施持續性支出所帶動的科技股集中強勢。
波動率上升顯示投資者佈局具選擇性，專注於獲利能見度明確的題材。
台積電創紀錄的業績與樂觀財測，驗證了全球AI硬體論述，鞏固了台灣的市場領導地位。
資金流入台灣記憶體、封裝及伺服器組裝產業，預示AI題材正擴散。

美國市場的復甦屬技術性反彈，主要由近期的信貸與地緣政治焦慮情緒緩和所驅動。然而，更重要的結構性趨勢，仍然是市場對人工智慧(AI)領域的密集資本投資。艾司摩爾(ASML)與甲骨文(Oracle)等全球關鍵科技公司的財報，強化了此一持續性需求的論述。儘管大盤的廣泛參與度有限，但科技產業內部的領漲族群展現出高度的信念，此一格局對特定的全球供應鏈有利。

此一美國市場的訊號，在台灣得到了最清晰的驗證。台積電卓越的季度業績與上修的資本支出指引，不僅是一家公司的故事，更是全球AI週期強度的指標。這為台灣更廣泛的半導體生態系，創造了直接的傳導機制。在前一個台股交易時段觀察到的資本輪動，已流入記憶體、先進封裝及AI伺服器組裝廠，顯示投資者已開始佈局此一題材從晶圓代工龍頭向外擴散的趨勢。所宣布的2奈米量產時程，進一步鞏固了相關設備與材料供應商的前景。

前瞻的焦點在於，辨識此一已獲確認的趨勢下，下一波的受惠者。儘管台積電仍是核心持股，但上游及下游供應鏈的機會正在浮現。關鍵在於，隨著法人資本依循產業龍頭所規劃的AI路線圖移動，投資者須監控哪些次產業的「趨勢指標」正在改善。觀察相關公司的訂單流向及產能擴張的宣布，將是辨識領漲族群輪動的關鍵。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

本摘要總結了美國和台灣資產管理規模最大的交易所買賣基金(ETF)，運用我們專有的趨勢指標矩陣，呈現的一週趨勢變化。此分析僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。

圖表一：美國資產規模前五大ETF(美元計價)

Vanguard標普500指數ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
SPDR標普500指數ETF信託 (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
iShares核心標普500指數ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
Vanguard整體股市指數ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
Invesco QQQ信託系列1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲

本週最顯著的趨勢變化，發生在側重科技股的那斯達克100指數ETF(QQQ)，其指標從溫和正向轉強為強勁正向。這指向美國大型科技股的動能正在增強。相較之下，廣泛市場的標普500指數及整體市場ETF，則維持其溫和正向的趨勢。對於持有台灣部位的投資組合而言，美國科技股重現強勢是一項關鍵發展，因為這些趨勢往往會影響台灣電子供應鏈內的市場情緒與資本流向。

圖表二：台灣資產規模前五大ETF(新台幣計價)

元大台灣卓越50基金 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
元大高股息基金 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
國泰永續高股息基金 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
群益台灣精選高息基金 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼
富邦台灣采吉50基金 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

台灣規模最大的幾檔ETF趨勢指標在過去一週沒有變化，顯示既有的市場題材仍在持續。以大型股及科技股為權重的台灣50相關ETF(0050, 006208)維持其強勁正向的趨勢，此趨勢與美國那斯達克指數動能增強一致。這些聚焦成長的基金，與精選高股息ETF(00919)的強勁負向趨勢之間，存在著清晰的格局分歧。這顯示市場領漲動能仍集中在科技及大型成長股。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Taiwan Semiconductor Chain Positioned For Confirmed AI Momentum

TSMC's strong outlook provides a clear roadmap for advanced packaging, materials, and equipment sectors.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-10-17

Executive Summary

U.S. equities rebounded as immediate fears surrounding regional banks and trade rhetoric subsided.
The underlying market driver remains concentrated strength in technology, fueled by persistent AI infrastructure spending.
Elevated volatility indicates investor positioning is selective, focusing on themes with clear earnings conviction.
TSMC's record results and optimistic forecast validate the global AI hardware thesis, anchoring Taiwan's market leadership.
Capital flows into Taiwan's memory, packaging, and server assembly sectors signal an expansion of the AI theme.

The U.S. market recovery was technical, driven by a moderation of recent credit and geopolitical anxieties. The more significant structural trend remains the intense capital investment in AI. Earnings reports from key global technology firms, including ASML and Oracle, reinforce this narrative of sustained demand. While broader market participation is limited, leadership within the technology sector shows high conviction, a pattern that benefits specific global supply chains.

This U.S. signal finds its clearest confirmation in Taiwan. TSMC's exceptional quarterly results and upwardly revised capital expenditure guidance are not just a company story; they are a global indicator of the AI cycle's strength. This creates a direct transmission mechanism to Taiwan's broader semiconductor ecosystem. The capital rotation into memory, advanced packaging, and AI server assemblers observed in the prior TAIEX session suggests investors are already positioning for this theme to broaden beyond the foundry leader. The announced 2nm mass production timeline further solidifies the outlook for related equipment and materials suppliers.

The forward-looking focus is on identifying the next beneficiaries of this confirmed trend. While TSMC remains the core holding, opportunities are emerging in the upstream and downstream supply chain. The key is to monitor which sub-sectors demonstrate improving Trend Conviction as institutional capital follows the AI roadmap laid out by the industry leaders. Observation of order flow and capacity expansion announcements from related companies will be critical to identifying leadership rotation.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for the largest U.S. and Taiwanese ETFs by assets under management using our proprietary Trend Conviction Matrix indicators. The analysis is for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲

The week's most notable trend change occurred in the technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ), where the indicator strengthened from mildly to strongly positive. This points to increasing momentum in U.S. large-cap technology stocks. In contrast, the broad market S 500 and total market ETFs maintained their mildly positive trends. For Taiwan-exposed portfolios, the renewed strength in U.S. technology is a key development, as these trends often influence sentiment and capital flows within Taiwan's electronics supply chain.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

Trend indicators for Taiwan's largest ETFs showed no change over the past week, suggesting a persistence of existing market themes. The large-cap, technology-weighted Taiwan 50 ETFs (0050, 006208) maintained their strongly positive trends, which aligns with the strengthening momentum seen in the U.S. Nasdaq. A clear pattern differentiation exists between these growth-focused funds and the strongly negative trend in the select high-dividend ETF (00919). This indicates that market leadership remains concentrated in technology and large-cap growth.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。