【Joe’s華爾街脈動】地緣政治衝擊助燃美股漲勢，然台灣科技股修正加劇

對俄羅斯的新制裁推升能源股飆漲；獲利了結賣壓則持續對台股加權指數(TAIEX)構成壓力。

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年10月23日 美東時間

摘要

• 在地緣政治驅動的油價飆漲下，美股反彈，而台灣市場則持續回檔，形成全球風險情緒的明顯分歧。
• 對俄羅斯祭出制裁後，能源股飆升，其漲幅蓋過了特斯拉(Tesla)與IBM財報不佳的利空；然而，持續的外資賣超則推低了台股。
• 隨著股市反彈及油價上漲，市場對固定收益資產的需求降溫，十年期公債殖利率回升至4.0%。
• 所有市場的注意力現皆集中在週五延後公布的美國消費者物價指數(CPI)報告，以尋求下一個主要的市場方向催化劑。
• 美國對俄羅斯石油公司實施重大的新制裁，引發原油價格急遽上漲，並將市場焦點轉向能源安全。

市場的論述被地緣政治所改寫，在一個復甦的美國市場與一個步履蹣跚的台灣股市之間，造成了鮮明的分歧。主要的催化劑是美國宣布對俄羅斯主要石油公司實施新制裁，此舉使西德州中級(WTI)原油價格飆升超過5%，突破每桶61美元。這點燃了能源產業的強勁漲勢，為標普500指數及那斯達克指數提供了足夠的上升力道，使其擺脫了前一交易日盤後特斯拉(Tesla)與IBM令人失望的財報陰影。此一走勢，預示著美國市場已從一個由好壞參半的財報所驅動的市場，明顯轉向一個因應以全球能源供應為核心的新宏觀經濟現實的市場。

與此形成鮮明對比的是，台灣市場未能參與此波反彈，台股加權指數(TAIEX)於週四擴大其修正幅度。指數下跌的驅動因素，來自美國科技股疲弱財報的持續影響，以及最關鍵的——外資法人持續且大量的淨賣超。儘管美國市場能夠忽視特斯拉(Tesla)與IBM不佳的業績，但此負面情緒對側重科技的台灣供應鏈，造成了更直接且持久的衝擊。此一動態確認了本地市場在經歷一段快速上漲後，正在進行一次必要性的盤整，投資者在產業疲弱跡象與大規模資本外流的情況下，選擇確保獲利。

此一分歧也反映在各資產類別上，確認了當前環境的複雜性。美股的風險偏好走勢，伴隨著十年期公債殖利率回升至4.0%。然而，美元也走強，黃金在近期拋售後找到了支撐，顯示市場對貿易政策及通膨潛在的焦慮依然存在。現在的前景完全由週五公布的美國消費者物價指數(CPI)主導，這是數週來第一個重要的經濟數據點，可能將重塑市場對聯準會政策的預期。對台灣而言，儘管長期的看漲結構依然完整，但隨著市場應對這些外部壓力並消化近期的融資餘額增長，短期路徑指向進一步的高檔盤整。

週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢

本摘要總結了關鍵貨幣對(以新台幣計價)及主要大宗商品類股(以美元計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。

圖表一：貨幣(新台幣計價)

• 美元(貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
• 歐元(貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: --
• 日圓(貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼
• 人民幣(貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
• 加幣(貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼

兌新台幣的貨幣趨勢中，主要變化為加幣的反轉。其指標在過去一週從溫和負向轉為溫和正向。其他主要貨幣對的趨勢評估則未改變。美元和人民幣維持其溫和正向的趨勢，而歐元則持平於中性讀數，日圓則持續呈現溫和負向的趨勢。此資訊顯示，市場對加幣的評估出現特定轉變。

圖表二：大宗商品(美元計價)

• 能源類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼▼
• 農業類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼
• 工業金屬(代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲
• 貴金屬(代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 數位資產(代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼

數個大宗商品產業普遍觀察到改善的跡象。工業金屬的趨勢從溫和正向轉強為強勁正向。農業類大宗商品則出現趨勢反轉，從溫和負向轉為溫和正向。能源類大宗商品的負向趨勢也從強勁緩和至溫和。相較之下，貴金屬維持其強勁正向的趨勢，而數位資產則守住其溫和負向的指標。此數據指向傳統大宗商品的前景正在轉強。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Geopolitical Shock Fuels U.S. Rally, But Taiwan Tech Correction Deepens

New sanctions on Russia send energy stocks soaring; profit-taking continues to pressure the TAIEX.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-10-23

Executive Summary

• U.S. equities rallied on a geopolitically-driven oil spike while the Taiwanese market continued its pullback, creating a clear divergence in global risk sentiment.
• A surge in energy stocks following sanctions on Russia overshadowed poor earnings from Tesla and IBM, but persistent foreign selling pushed the Taiex lower.
• The 10-year Treasury yield rose back to 4.0% as the equity rebound and rising oil prices tempered demand for fixed-income assets.
• All market attention is now fixed on Friday's delayed U.S. Consumer Price Index report for the next major directional catalyst.
• The U.S. imposed significant new sanctions on Russian oil companies, triggering a sharp rally in crude oil and shifting the market's focus to energy security.

The market's narrative was rewritten by geopolitics, creating a stark divergence between a resurgent U.S. market and a faltering Taiwanese exchange. The primary catalyst was the announcement of new U.S. sanctions against major Russian oil firms, which sent WTI crude prices soaring over 5% to surpass $61 a barrel. This ignited a powerful rally in the energy sector, providing enough lift for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to shake off the previous session's after-hours earnings disappointments from Tesla and IBM. The move signals a clear pivot in the U.S. from a market driven by mixed earnings results to one responding to a new macroeconomic reality centered on global energy supply.

In stark contrast, the Taiwan market failed to participate in the rebound, with the TAIEX extending its correction on Thursday. The index was driven down by the lingering impact of weak U.S. tech earnings and, most critically, continued and substantial net selling by foreign institutions. While the U.S. market was able to look past the poor results from Tesla and IBM, the negative sentiment had a more direct and lasting impact on Taiwan's tech-heavy supply chain. This action confirms that the local market is undergoing a necessary consolidation after a period of rapid gains, with investors opting to secure profits amid signs of sector-specific weakness and large capital outflows.

This divergence was mirrored across asset classes, confirming the complex nature of the current environment. The risk-on move in U.S. equities was accompanied by a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield back to 4.0%. However, the U.S. dollar also strengthened and gold found a floor after its recent sell-off, indicating that underlying anxiety regarding trade policy and inflation remains. The outlook is now dominated by Friday's U.S. CPI release, the first significant economic data point in weeks, which holds the potential to reshape Federal Reserve policy expectations. For Taiwan, while the long-term bullish structure remains intact, the short-term path points toward further high-level consolidation as the market navigates these external pressures and digests the recent increase in margin financing.

Thursday Asset Focus: Currency & Commodity Trends

This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key currency pairs against the TWD and for major commodity sectors in USD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)

• U.S. Dollar (FX Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• Euro (FX Pair: EURTWD): Current: --, Last Week: --
• Japanese Yen (FX Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
• Chinese Yuan (FX Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• Canadian Dollar (FX Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼

The primary change in currency trends against the TWD was a reversal in the Canadian Dollar. Its indicator moved from mildly negative to mildly positive over the past week. The other major currency pairs showed no change in their trend assessments. The U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan maintained their mildly positive trends, while the Euro held its neutral reading and the Japanese Yen continued to show a mildly negative trend. This information suggests a specific shift in the assessment for the Canadian Dollar.

Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)

• Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼
• Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
• Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼

A broad improvement was observed across several commodity sectors. The trend for Industrial Metals strengthened from mildly positive to strongly positive. Agricultural Commodities saw a trend reversal from mildly negative to mildly positive. The negative trend in Energy Commodities also eased from strong to mild. In contrast, Precious Metals maintained their strongly positive trend, and Digital Assets held their mildly negative indicator. This data points to a strengthening outlook across traditional commodities.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。