【Joe’s華爾街脈動】蘋果與亞馬遜財報掃除陰霾，推動市場飆升

2025/11/01

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科技七巨頭壓軸的驚人財報，為創紀錄但劇烈波動的月份劃下句點。

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月1日美東時間

摘要

儘管週間出現顯著波動，但在強勁的科技股反彈帶動下，美股在10月最後一個交易日飆升，為主要指數創紀錄的月份劃下句點。
亞馬遜與蘋果驚人的財報，完全扭轉了Meta和微軟支出警訊所帶來的負面情緒，帶動那斯達克指數急遽上漲。
公債殖利率微幅走高，反映了股市的風險偏好情緒，但聯準會本週稍早的鷹派基調，持續限制公債出現大規模拋售。
新宣布的美中貿易休兵協議雖提供了正面的宏觀背景，但其市場影響力完全被大型科技股的財報焦點所掩蓋。
關鍵的「川習會」就主要貿易議題達成為期一年的緩和協議，移除了市場一項重大的不確定性來源。

本週市場對少數大型股的極度依賴展露無遺，亞馬遜(Amazon)與蘋果(Apple)驚人的財報獨力將市場從一場由市場情緒驅動的深度拋售中拯救出來。僅在Meta龐大的支出計畫引發科技股潰敗的24小時後，亞馬遜飆升的雲端業務增長與蘋果強勁的iPhone需求，便完全改寫了市場論述。

儘管財報是主要焦點，但美中貿易休兵協議提供了一個穩定的背景。對新關稅及中國稀土限制為期一年的暫停，為全球供應鏈移除了關鍵的尾部風險。然而，聯準會週三的鷹派評論持續發酵，在不同市場產業之間造成分歧。這在債券市場中清晰可見，殖利率維持在4.1%附近的穩定水平；黃金亦然，守穩在每盎司4,000美元以上。儘管股票交易員因科技股財報而情緒高昂，債券與大宗商品交易員對宏觀前景仍保持謹慎，這為年底前的市場方向埋下了潛在的衝突。

台股加權指數(TAIEX)剛結束其史上表現最亮眼的十月，儘管在最後一個交易日因尾盤外資賣壓而小幅回檔。蘋果(Apple)與亞馬遜(Amazon)的強勁業績，對台灣的供應鏈是直接且強而有力的正面催化劑，為下週的行情奠定了看漲的基礎。此外，由集邦科技(TrendForce)上修且大幅調高的價格預測所確認的、持續中的記憶體上行週期，更增添了另一層基本面支撐。對台灣而言，關鍵的啟示是，全球論述已從廣泛的AI熱情，轉向聚焦於生態系中特定且能獲利的龍頭企業。這有利於供應鏈中已建立地位的參與者。儘管台股加權指數(TAIEX)仍處於強勁的上升趨勢中，但美國市場的極端波動是一個明確的警訊，預示著通往新高的路徑將受到由市場情緒驅動的劇烈波動所影響。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

本摘要總結了美國和台灣資產管理規模最大的交易所買賣基金(ETF)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。

圖表一：美國資產規模前五大ETF(美元計價)

Vanguard標普500指數ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
iShares核心標普500指數ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
SPDR標普500指數ETF信託 (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
Vanguard整體股市指數ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
Invesco QQQ信託系列1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

過去一週，美國規模最大的幾檔ETF趨勢指標維持穩定。代表對美國股市(包含標普500指數及那斯達克100指數)廣泛曝險的所有五檔基金，皆維持其強勁正向的評級。在這些關鍵的市場基準指標中，並未記錄到任何升級或降級。此一穩定性顯示，美國大型股普遍的正向趨勢評估，在本週持續不輟。

圖表二：台灣資產規模前五大ETF(新台幣計價)

元大台灣卓越50基金 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
元大高股息基金 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
國泰永續高股息基金 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
群益台灣精選高息基金 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: --, 一週前: --
富邦台灣采吉50基金 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

過去一週，台灣規模最大的幾檔ETF趨勢評估未觀察到任何變化。既有的趨勢分歧格局依然穩固。廣泛市值加權的基金(0050, 006208)維持其強勁正向的指標。主要的高股息ETF(0056, 00878)亦守住其溫和正向的評級，而另一檔(00919)則維持中性。此一靜止的狀態，指向台灣市場中不同投資策略的獨特評估仍在持續。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Apple and Amazon Earnings Erase Mid-Week Fears, Propel Markets Higher

Blockbuster results from the final Magnificent 7 reports cap a record-breaking but volatile month.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-01

Executive Summary

U.S. equities surged on the final day of trading for October, with a powerful tech rebound capping a record-breaking month for the major indices despite significant mid-week volatility.
Amazon and Apple's blockbuster earnings completely reversed the negative sentiment from Meta and Microsoft's spending warnings, driving the Nasdaq sharply higher.
Treasury yields ticked higher, reflecting the risk-on mood in equities, though the Fed's hawkish tone from earlier in the week continues to limit a major bond sell-off.
A newly announced U.S.-China trade truce provided a positive macro backdrop, but its market impact was entirely overshadowed by the focus on Big Tech earnings.
The pivotal "Trump-Xi meeting" resulted in a one-year de-escalation on key trade issues, removing a significant source of market uncertainty.

The market's extreme dependency on a handful of mega-cap stocks was laid bare this week, as blockbuster earnings from Amazon and Apple single-handedly rescued the market from a deep, sentiment-driven sell-off. Just 24 hours after Meta's massive spending plans triggered a tech rout, Amazon's soaring cloud growth and Apple's robust iPhone demand completely rewrote the narrative.

While the earnings reports were the main event, the U.S.-China trade truce provided a stable backdrop. The one-year pause on new tariffs and China's rare-earth restrictions removes a key tail risk for global supply chains. However, the Fed's hawkish commentary from Wednesday continues to linger, creating a split between market segments. This is visible in the bond market, where yields remain firm near 4.1%, and in gold, which held its ground above $4,000/oz. While equity traders are euphoric on tech earnings, bond and commodity traders remain cautious about the macro outlook, setting up a potential conflict for the market's direction heading into year-end.

The TAIEX closed out its best October in history, though it ended the final session with a slight pullback due to late-day foreign selling. The strong results from Apple and Amazon are a direct and powerful positive catalyst for Taiwan's supply chain, providing a bullish setup for next week. Furthermore, the ongoing memory upcycle, confirmed by TrendForce's revised and sharply higher price forecasts, adds another layer of fundamental support. The key takeaway for Taiwan is that the global narrative has shifted from broad AI enthusiasm to a focus on the specific, profitable leaders in the ecosystem. This favors established players in the supply chain. While the TAIEX remains in a strong uptrend, the extreme volatility in the U.S. serves as a clear warning that the path to new highs will be subject to sharp, sentiment-driven swings.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for the largest U.S. and Taiwanese exchange-traded funds by assets under management. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The trend indicators for the largest U.S. ETFs remained stable over the past week. All five funds, which represent broad exposure to the U.S. stock market including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, maintained their strongly positive ratings. No upgrades or downgrades were recorded among these key market benchmarks. This stability suggests the prevailing positive trend assessment for U.S. large-cap equities persisted through the week.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: --, Last Week: --
Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

No changes were observed in the trend assessments for Taiwan's largest ETFs over the last week. The existing division in trends held firm. The broad market-cap weighted funds (0050, 006208) maintained their strongly positive indicators. The major high dividend yield ETFs (0056, 00878) also held their mildly positive ratings, while another (00919) remained neutral. This lack of movement points to a continuation of the distinct assessments for different investment strategies in the Taiwanese market.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。