【Joe’s華爾街脈動】勞動市場震撼彈動搖全球，AI漲勢在宏觀壓力下崩潰

美國裁員飆升與AI估值疑慮持續，觸發那斯達克四月來最差單週表現，迫使市場防禦性輪動，並終結台股十週連漲紀錄。

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月7日 美東時間

摘要

• 美股在劇烈波動的一週後收低，科技股引領的急遽賣壓，蓋過了週末防禦性類股的反彈。
• 在資產泡沫擔憂加劇下，投資者大舉拋售高估值AI股，那斯達克指數經歷了自四月以來最差的單週表現。
• 疲弱的勞動市場數據大幅提高了市場對聯準會12月降息的預期，公債殖利率應聲下跌，反映公債價格上漲。
• 一份顯示美國十月份裁員人數飆升至數十年高點的民間報告，成為市場情緒最主要的驅動因素。
• 長期持續的美國政府關門造成數據真空，加劇了市場波動以及對經濟真實狀況的不確定性。

市場的性格已發生根本性的改變。十月份以來由AI助燃的動能交易，已被一次嚴峻的宏觀經濟衝擊明確地打破，迫使市場進行全面的風險重新定價。此一轉變的催化劑，來自一份驚人的民間部門報告，該報告指出美國企業十月份的裁員人數創下二十多年來的新高。在美國政府持續關門所造成的資訊真空中，此單一數據點粉碎了市場普遍的增長論述，立即將市場焦點從強勁的企業財報，轉向急遽惡化的美國勞動市場健康狀況。市場的反應是一場教科書式的避險潮，投資者拋售高成長的科技股，並尋求黃金與政府公債的庇護。

此一輪動在美國科技產業的慘重災情中，表現得最為淋漓盡致。那斯達克綜合指數經歷了自四月以來最差的單週表現，領跌的正是先前將市場推向歷史高點的AI龍頭股——輝達(Nvidia)、特斯拉(Tesla)和微軟(Microsoft)。這並非一次健康的修正，而是一場基礎廣泛的清算，其驅動因素是市場日益擔憂估值已危險地脫離經濟現實，此擔憂更因英格蘭銀行對潛在資產泡沫的警告而加劇。儘管標普500指數和道瓊指數於週五小幅反彈，但此反彈是由民生消費必需品和原物料等防禦性類股所帶動，確認了投資者正積極地為一個更具挑戰性的經濟環境重新佈局。

此波全球性的風險規避浪潮，直接衝擊了台灣市場，台股加權指數(TAIEX)非凡的十週連漲紀錄戛然而止。在外資大舉拋售權值科技股部位、淨賣超達新台幣353億元的帶動下，指數本週急遽下跌。台股加權指數(TAIEX)現已進入明確的盤整階段，面臨著轉弱的短期技術指標，以及消化近期龐大漲幅的挑戰。然而，台灣供應鏈的長期基本面前景依然穩固。台灣經濟增長預測的上修、MSCI決定調高台股權重，以及Google發布新的AI晶片，都提供了強而有力的長期順風。投資者當前的任務是應對這段宏觀經濟波動加劇的時期，同時做好準備，掌握台灣核心科技題材的持久優勢。

週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢

本摘要總結了美國和台灣資產管理規模最大的交易所買賣基金(ETF)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。

圖表一：美國資產規模前五大ETF(美元計價)

• Vanguard標普500指數ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• iShares核心標普500指數ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• SPDR標普500指數ETF信託 (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• Vanguard整體股市指數ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ信託系列1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲

美國規模最大的幾檔ETF普遍觀察到正面趨勢放緩的現象。所有五檔頂尖基金的趨勢指標，皆從強勁正向緩和至溫和正向。此同步轉變包含了追蹤標普500指數、美國整體股市及那斯達克100指數的ETF。此資訊指向過去一週，市場對美國大型股普遍的正向趨勢評估已同步趨緩。

圖表二：台灣資產規模前五大ETF(新台幣計價)

• 元大台灣卓越50基金 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲
• 元大高股息基金 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
• 國泰永續高股息基金 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲
• 群益台灣精選高息基金 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲
• 富邦台灣采吉50基金 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲

顯著的轉弱現象，集中在數檔台灣高股息ETF。元大高股息(0056)和群益台灣精選高息(00919) ETF的趨勢指標，雙雙從溫和正向轉為中性。相較之下，以大型股及市值為權重的ETF(0050, 006208)則維持其強勁正向的趨勢。此現象顯示，市場對某些以股息為主的策略評估出現轉變，而大盤的趨勢則依然穩固。

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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

AI Rally Collapses Under Macro Pressure as Labor Market Shock Rattles Global Markets

Soaring U.S. layoffs and persistent AI valuation fears trigger the Nasdaq's worst week since April, forcing a defensive rotation and ending the TAIEX's 10-week winning streak.

By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-07

Executive Summary

• U.S. equities finished a highly volatile week lower, with a sharp tech-led sell-off overshadowing a late-week rebound in defensive sectors.
• The Nasdaq suffered its worst week since April as investors aggressively sold high-valuation AI stocks amid growing concerns of an asset bubble.
• Treasury yields fell as weak labor market data dramatically increased market expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
• A private report showing U.S. layoffs surged to a multi-decade high for October became the primary driver of market sentiment.
• The prolonged U.S. government shutdown created a data blackout, amplifying market volatility and uncertainty about the true state of the economy.

The market's character has fundamentally changed. The AI-fueled momentum trade that defined October has been decisively broken by a severe macroeconomic shock, forcing a market-wide repricing of risk. The catalyst for this shift was a stunning private-sector report indicating U.S. corporate layoffs in October hit their highest level in over two decades. In the information vacuum created by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, this single data point shattered the prevailing growth narrative, immediately shifting the market's focus from strong corporate earnings to the rapidly deteriorating health of the U.S. labor market. The reaction was a textbook flight to safety, with investors dumping high-growth technology stocks and seeking refuge in gold and government bonds.

This rotation was most visible in the carnage within the U.S. technology sector. The Nasdaq Composite suffered its worst weekly performance since April, led by heavy selling in the very AI leaders—Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft—that had propelled the market to record highs. This was not a healthy correction but a broad-based liquidation driven by mounting fears that valuations had become dangerously detached from economic reality, a concern amplified by warnings of a potential asset bubble from the Bank of England. While the S&P 500 and Dow managed a modest rebound on Friday, this was driven by defensive sectors like consumer staples and materials, confirming that investors are actively repositioning for a more challenging economic environment.

This global wave of risk aversion directly impacted the Taiwan market, where the TAIEX's remarkable 10-week winning streak came to an abrupt end. The index fell sharply for the week, driven by a massive NT$35.3 billion net sell-off from foreign investors who liquidated positions in heavyweight tech stocks. The TAIEX is now in a clear consolidation phase, facing weakened short-term technical indicators and the challenge of digesting significant recent gains. However, the long-term fundamental picture for Taiwan's supply chain remains robust. The upward revision of Taiwan's economic growth forecast, MSCI's decision to increase the market's weighting, and new AI chip announcements from Google all provide powerful, long-term tailwinds. The immediate task for investors is to navigate this period of heightened macro-driven volatility while preparing to capitalize on the enduring strength of Taiwan's core technology themes.

Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF Trends

This brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for the largest U.S. and Taiwanese exchange-traded funds by assets under management. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲

A broad moderation in positive trends was observed across the largest U.S. ETFs. All five of the top funds saw their trend indicators ease from strongly positive to mildly positive. This coordinated shift includes ETFs that track the S&P 500, the total U.S. stock market, and the Nasdaq 100. This information points to a synchronized easing of the prevailing positive trend assessment for U.S. large-cap equities over the past week.

Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)

• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
• Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
• Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲

A notable weakening was concentrated in several high-dividend Taiwanese ETFs. The trend indicators for the Yuanta Dividend Plus (0056) and the Capital TIP Select High Div (00919) ETFs both moved from mildly positive to neutral. In contrast, the large-cap, market-weighted ETFs (0050, 006208) maintained their strongly positive trends. This suggests a shift in the assessment for certain dividend-focused strategies, while the trend for the broader market held firm.

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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。