EXCLUSIVE: Market Expert Jay Woods Says Micron Stock Is New Market 'Tell,' Following Footsteps of Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft
Freedom Capital MarketsChief Market StrategistJay Woodspredicted the S&P 500 would end 2026 at around 7,200 in estimates made back in late 2025. Here's what the market expert is saying now and whyMicron Technology(NASDAQ:MU) has become the most important stock for investors to watch.
Freedom Capital Markets首席市場策略師Jay Woods在2025年底做出的預測中表示，標普500指數將在2026年底收於約7,200。以下是這位市場專家當前的看法，以及為何美光科技（納斯達克代碼：MU）已成為投資者最需關注的股票。
- Micron Technology stock is feeling bearish pressure. Why is MU stock dropping?
- 美光科技股價正面臨看跌壓力。MU股價為何下跌？
S&P 500 2026 Predictions
標普500指數2026年預測
Similar to making changes to top stocks midway through the year, Woods is slightly tweaking his forecast for the S&P 500 for the rest of 2026.
與在年中調整頂級股票類似，Woods正在對其2026年剩餘時間的標普500指數預測進行小幅修正。
"I give those end-of-year targets for fun and I don't like to change them in the middle of the year," Woods tells Benzinga in an exclusive interview.
Woods在接受Benzinga獨家採訪時表示：「我給出這些年末目標只是為了好玩，而且我不喜歡在年中更改它們。」
With the S&P 500 trading near 7,500 at the time of the interview, Woods said it's hard to know if the market index has peaked for 2026.
在採訪進行時，標普500指數交易於接近7,500的水平，Woods表示很難判斷該市場指數是否已在2026年見頂。
Based on seasonality, historical patterns and market rotation, Woods lays out his best guess of what happens for the second half of 2026.
Woods基於季節性因素、歷史走勢和市場輪動，對其認為2026年下半年可能發生的情況做出了最佳推測。
"I can see a drawdown of 10% from our peak, which would give us a trip back below 7,000 in the coming three to four months and then we rally after this election is over. That's how the cycle plays out."
「我預計市場將從近期高點回調10%，這會讓我們在未來三到四個月內重新跌回7000點下方，隨後在大選結束後迎來一波反彈。周期就是這樣運行的。」
Woods predicts that the S&P 500, which is tracked by theSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY) cold close the year out at the 7,650 or 7,700 level.
Woods預測，由標普500指數ETF-SPDR（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）跟蹤的標普500指數將在年底收於7,650或7,700水平。
"I still think if we finish this year at 7,200, at 7,300, it's a successful year."
「我仍然認為，如果我們今年收於7200點或7300點，就是成功的一年。」
Micron the New Market 'Tell'
美光科技成市場新「風向標」
One of the keys to where the S&P 500 trades in the second half is earnings reports before the end of the year.
標普500指數下半年的走勢關鍵之一，在於年底前公佈的業績。
"Do we reward companies for good earnings or do we keep them where they are?" Woods said. "I think Micron is now the new tell. It's been Nvidia forever. It was Apple for years. There was Microsoft for years."
「我們是會因強勁的盈利而獎勵公司，還是會令其原地踏步？」Woods表示，「我認為美光科技如今成了新的風向標。此前一直是輝達，再早幾年是蘋果，還有多年是微軟。」
Woods thinks Micron is now the best representative to the market based on its extreme growth and how investors react to earnings reports.
Woods認為，基於美光科技的極高增長以及投資者對其業績的反應，該公司如今最能代表市場動向。
"Their earnings are growing hand over fist. You cannot put enough superlatives on what they're doing, but price action's starting to slow."
「它們的盈利正以驚人的速度增長。無論用多少溢美之詞來形容它們的表現都不為過，但股價走勢已開始放緩。」
Micron reported third-quarter financial earnings in late June, with fourth-quarter results expected to be reported in September.
美光科技已於6月下旬公佈了第三財季財務業績，預計將在9月公佈第四財季業績。
The market expert cautions that when price action slows, there might be a correction. Woods cites past data fromNVIDIA Corp(NASDAQ:NVDA) and similar patterns in his weekly newsletter.
這位市場專家提醒，當股價走勢放緩時，可能會出現回調。Woods在其每周通訊中引用了輝達公司（納斯達克：NVDA）的歷史數據及類似走勢模式。
Woods recalls Nvidia stock being on an unstoppable run until the third quarter of 2023, when price action did not respond to the company's biggest blowout quarter ever.
Woods回憶稱，輝達股價曾一路勢不可擋，直到2023年第三季度，儘管公司創下了史上最強勁的單季業績，但股價卻未作出積極反應。
"The momentum was lost. And when I look at momentum indicators in Micron, I see a divergence. It's a bearish divergence."
「動能已經喪失。當我觀察美光科技的動能指標時，我看到了背離現象，這是一種看跌背離。」
Micron is a great long-term stock according to Woods, who predicts the company could have a future market capitalization of $2.5 trillion or more.
Woods認為美光科技是一隻出色的長期股票，並預測該公司未來的市值可能達到$2.5兆或更高。
Woods cautions that the stock is likely to consolidate from here and it could take some time to "take that next leg higher."
Woods提醒稱，該股票可能會從當前水平進入盤整階段，可能需要一段時間才能「邁上下一步上漲行情」。
"Micron will be the one to watch."
「Micron將是最值得關注的。」 (Benzinga)