'The Retail Investor Gets Inevitably Wiped Out': The Tickers Most Hit by the Chip Stocks Rout
「散戶投資者終將被無情清場」：受晶片股暴跌衝擊最嚴重的股票
Leveraged ETFs that must sell shares every time stocks fall may be the mechanical culprit behind the worst momentum selloff in 27 years, according to Forward Guidance podcast co-hostTyler Neville, a former buy-side derivatives trader.
據前買方衍生品交易員、《Forward Guidance》播客聯合主持人Tyler Neville稱，每當股市下跌就必須賣出股票的槓桿ETF，可能是導致27年來最嚴重動量股拋售潮的機械性元兇。
Momentum stocks have unwound at the fastest pace in the 27-year history of a Morgan Stanley tech momentum index, with the pain concentrated in semiconductors.
動量股的回撤速度已創下摩根士丹利科技動量指數27年曆史之最，其中半導體類股承受了最集中的損失。
The rout has gone global, withSoftBank Group Corp.(OTC:SFTBY) tumbling over 11% in Tokyo on Friday as Japanese chip names sank alongside Wall Street.
此次拋售潮已蔓延至全球，軟銀集團（OTC:SFTBY）周五在東京股價暴跌逾11%，日本晶片股與華爾街同步下挫。
The selling pressure may be baked into how these products work.
這種賣壓可能內嵌於這些產品的運作機制之中。
Leveraged ETFs must rebalance daily to maintain their exposure, meaning they buy more when stocks rise and sell more when stocks fall, regardless of price or fundamentals.
槓桿ETF必須每日重新平衡以維持其風險敞口，這意味著無論價格或基本面如何，它們在股價上漲時買入更多，在股價下跌時賣出更多。
That mechanical selling may now be amplifying the downturn.
這種機械性拋售如今可能正在加劇市場下跌。
Assets in leveraged ETFs peaked at a record of roughly $218 billion before contracting to around $198 billion as the selloff hit, with semiconductor products shedding about 20% of their assets, according to Citadel Securities.
據Citadel Securities數據，槓桿ETF資產規模在拋售潮來襲前曾達到約$2,180億的歷史高點，隨後收縮至約$1,980億，其中半導體相關產品資產縮水約20%。
The Machine Works In Both Directions
機器在兩個方向都有效
"The retail investor inevitably gets wiped out," Neville said on Friday's episode, arguing that the same flows that fueled the rally are now accelerating the decline.
Neville在周五的節目中表示：「散戶投資者最終難免被清盤。」他指出，此前推動漲勢的資金流如今正在加速跌勢。
Neville noted that many popular names traded at implied volatility near 120, which translates to daily swings of plus or minus 7.6%. Stocks that volatile may force funds to cut positions simply to manage risk, creating more selling pressure.
Neville指出，許多熱門股票的引伸波幅接近120，這意味著每日漲跌幅可達正負7.6%。如此高波動性的股票可能迫使基金為管控風險而削減倉位，從而製造更多賣壓。
The spread between single-stock and index volatility has reached a record high, according to the same Citadel Securities research.
根據Citadel Securities的同一項研究，個股波動率與指數波動率之間的利差已達到創紀錄高位。
The main beneficiaries, according to Neville, are market makers such asJane StreetandCitadel Securities, which he said monetize the volatility through delta hedging while fundamentals "don't matter anymore."
據Neville表示，主要受益者是Jane Street和Citadel Securities等做市商，他表示這些公司通過Delta避險將波動率貨幣化，而基本面「已不再重要」。
The damage is stark. Chip stocks are on pace for their worst month ever against software, with the median semiconductor ETF holding down over 22% in July.
損失觸目驚心。晶片股正朝著有史以來相對於軟件股表現最差的一個月邁進，7月份半導體ETF中位數成分股下跌逾22%。
EvenNvidia Corp.(NASDAQ:NVDA) surrendered its July gains in this morning's slide.
就連輝達（納斯達克代碼：NVDA）也在今早的下跌中回吐了7月全部漲幅。
What Prediction Markets Are Saying
預測市場怎麼說
Traders on Kalshi now price a 25.9% chance the S&P 500 falls to 6,300 or below this year, roughly 15% beneath current levels, with the odds ticking higher as the momentum unwind accelerated.
Kalshi上的交易員目前定價標普500指數今年跌至6,300或以下的機率為25.9%，這大約比當前水平低15%，隨著動量交易平倉加速，這一機率還在不斷上升。
Polymarket traders appear less alarmed about the bigger picture.
Polymarket上的交易員對整體形勢似乎不那麼擔憂。
A market asking whether the AI bubble bursts by year-end sits at just 16%, down from highs near 30% in May.
一個關於人工智慧泡沫是否會在年底前破裂的市場預測目前僅顯示16%的機率，低於5月接近30%的高點。
Neville suggested single-stock volatility likely has to fall before fundamentals reassert themselves. Until then, the selling may keep feeding on itself.
Neville認為，在基本面重新佔據主導地位之前，個股波動率很可能需要先回落。在此之前，拋售可能會持續自我強化。 (Benzinga)