Bridgewater Associates founderRay Daliosays the war with Iran was "a big mistake" that exposed the limits of American power, comparing the moment to Britain's humiliation at Suez.
Bridgewater Associates創始人Ray Dalio表示，與伊朗的戰爭「是一個重大錯誤」，暴露了美國實力的侷限性，並將這一時刻比作英國在蘇伊士運河危機中的屈辱。
Speaking on The Diary of a CEO podcast released Thursday, Dalio said the U.S. and other powers are "later in that cycle" of his 80-year framework of rising and declining orders.
在周四發佈的《The Diary of a CEO》播客節目中，Dalio表示，美國及其他大國正處於他提出的80年周期框架中秩序興衰周期的「後期階段」。
Asked whether America has entered the collapse phase, he settled on "the decline."
當被問及美國是否已進入崩潰階段時，他給出的答案是「衰退」。
The Litmus Test
試金石
World leaders, particularly in Asia, have drawn a conclusion from the conflict, Dalio said. "There's a recognition that the United States doesn't want to fight a war," he said, calling control of the Strait of Hormuz "the litmus test."
Dalio表示，世界各國領導人，尤其是亞洲國家的領導人，已從這場衝突中得出了結論。「人們認識到，美國並不想打仗，」他說，並稱對荷姆茲海峽的控制是「試金石」。
Americans worried about gas prices and casualties want the conflict "all over fast," he said. "You can't fight a war that way."
他指出，擔心汽油價格和人員傷亡的美國人希望衝突「儘快結束」。「你不能以這種方式打仗。」
Dalio questioned whether Washington would pay the long-term cost of controlling the strait and confronting a country of roughly 90 million people.
Dalio質疑華盛頓是否願意承擔長期控制該海峽、並與一個擁有約9,000萬人口的國家對抗的代價。
Taking control of the strait temporarily would not be enough, he argued; the U.S. would have to enforce it "for the forever and ever future."
他認為，臨時控制海峽是不夠的；美國必須「永遠、永遠地」維持這種控制。
"It was a big mistake," he said of the war, which he argued "shone a light on the vulnerability" of the United States.
他談及這場戰爭時表示：「這是一個重大錯誤」，並認為這場戰爭「暴露了美國的脆弱性」。
"Like the British in the Suez Canal, we didn't realize. Now we realize that threats no longer work, that that power no longer exists."
「就像當年英國在蘇伊士運河那樣，我們當時並未意識到。現在我們意識到了：威脅不再奏效，那種力量已不復存在。」
Markets Price A Prolonged Crisis
市場已對一場長期危機進行定價
Polymarket assigns a 25% chance the US invades Iran before 2027, a market that has drawn $50.9 million in volume.
Polymarket預測美國在2027年前入侵伊朗的機率為25%，該市場的交易量已達$5,090萬。
Traders see just 7% odds that Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31, with the conflict continuing to sharply restrict shipping through a route that previously carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies.
交易員預計荷姆茲海峽航運在8月31日前恢復正常的可能性僅為7%，衝突持續嚴重限制通過這條航道的航運，而該航道此前運輸了全球約五分之一的石油和天然氣供應。
Brent crude traded near $88 Friday while the average US gasoline price remained above $4.10 per gallon.
布倫特原油周五交易價格接近$88，而美國汽油平均價格仍高於$4.10每加侖。
The Next Test Is Taiwan
下一個考驗是臺灣
Dalio also questioned whether Washington would intervene if Beijing blockaded Taiwan. "What will the United States literally do?" he asked, arguing that the Iran conflict has led Asian governments to doubt whether America would "show up" in a regional crisis.
Dalio還質疑，如果北京封鎖臺灣，華盛頓是否會介入。「美國到底會採取什麼行動？」他問道，並認為伊朗衝突已使亞洲各國政府懷疑美國是否會在地區危機中「現身」。
China already possesses significant leverage without firing a shot, he said, noting that Beijing has become a larger trading partner than the US for most countries.
他表示，中國即使不開一槍也已擁有巨大影響力，並指出對大多數國家而言，中國已成為比美國更大的貿易夥伴。
Taiwan presents the clearest risk to global markets.
臺灣對全球市場構成最明確的風險。
If China blocked semiconductor exports for just five days, "you'd see the world stock markets crash," Dalio said.
Dalio表示，如果中國封鎖半導體出口僅五天，「你就會看到全球股市崩盤。」
A Chinese blockade or military conflict that halted exports from Taiwan could cut global customers off fromTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.(NYSE:TSM), which produces the advanced chips used byNvidia Corp.(NASDAQ:NVDA) and much of the broader technology industry.
中國對臺灣實施封鎖或軍事衝突導致臺灣出口中斷，可能會使全球客戶無法獲得台積電（NYSE:TSM）生產的先進晶片，這些晶片被輝達（納斯達克:NVDA）和更廣泛的科技行業大量使用。
Even a brief interruption could constrain AI data-center expansion, disrupt electronics and automotive production.
即使短暫的中斷也可能限制人工智慧數據中心的擴張，並擾亂電子和汽車生產。
Dalio called the rules-based international order "a nice theory" that holds only when backed by strength. When rules conflict with power, he argued, "which wins? Power."
Dalio稱基於規則的國際秩序是「一個不錯的理論」，但只有在有實力支撐時才成立。他辯稱，當規則與實力發生衝突時，「誰會勝出？實力。」(Benzinga)