美國10年期國債的收益率現已超過美國118家最大公司

AI速讀
目前10年期美債收益率(約4.7%)已超越標普500指數中96%的公司股息,包括蘋果與英偉達等科技巨頭。此現象由美債收益率攀升及科技公司偏好股票回購而非派息共同驅動,導致股息率在股價飆漲下大幅下降。分析指出,對於需要現金流的投資者,目前全球最安全的資產(美債)收益已優於絕大多數大盤股。雖然 AI 股票的投資邏輯仍在於成長而非收益,但若未來成長停止兌現,這類低股息的大盤股將面臨巨大壓力。

A 10-year U.S. Treasury bond now pays more income than 118 of America's biggest companies.

目前,10年期美國國債的收益高於美國118家最大公司中的大多數。

Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL),Nvidia Corp.(NASDAQ:NVDA),Alphabet Inc.(NASDAQ:GOOGL) andBroadcom Inc.(NASDAQ:AVGO) are all on that list.

蘋果公司(納斯達克:AAPL)、輝達公司(納斯達克:NVDA)、Alphabet公司(納斯達克:GOOGL)和博通公司(納斯達克:AVGO)均在此列。

Nvidia makes the point fastest. The company pays a dividend yield of 0.46%. The 10-year Treasury pays roughly 4.7%.

輝達的情況最能說明問題。該公司股息收益率為0.46%。而10年期美國國債的收益率約為4.7%。

That is more than ten times the cash return, from the federal government, with no earnings risk attached.

這意味著來自聯邦政府的現金回報高出十倍以上,且沒有任何盈利風險。

Nvidia is not the outlier. It is the norm.

輝達並非特例,而是常態。

Only 3.85% Of The S&P 500 Still Beats A Government Bond

標普500指數中僅有3.85%的公司股息收益率仍高於政府債券。

A dividend yield is simply the annual cash a company pays out divided by its share price. If a $100 stock pays $2 a year, the yield is 2%.

股息收益率就是公司每年派發的現金除以其股價。如果一隻$100的股票每年派發$2,則其收益率為2%。

For most of modern market history, a meaningful slice of the S&P 500 paid more of that cash than a Treasury bond did.

在現代市場歷史的大部分時間裡,標普500指數中有相當一部分公司的現金派發率高於美國國債。

In July 2016, the figure hit 63.4%, a record outside the COVID-19 crash, according toNed Davis Researchdata circulated by Charles Schwab strategist Liz Ann Sonders.

根據嘉信理財策略師Liz Ann Sonders發佈的Ned Davis Research數據,該比例在2016年7月達到63.4%,這是除新冠疫情崩盤外的歷史最高紀錄。

As of July 31, 2026, that share had collapsed to 3.85%.

截至2026年7月31日,這一比例已驟降至3.85%。

That is the lowest reading since May 2007.

這是自2007年5月以來的最低讀數。

Put differently, roughly 96 out of every 100 companies in America's benchmark index now hand shareholders less annual income than a piece of government paper.

換句話說,目前美國基準指數中,每100家公司中約有96家向股東派發的年度收益低於一張政府債券。

S&P 500 stocks with dividend yields > 10-year Treasury yields hit a record high of 63.4% (excluding COVID-19 crash) back in July 2016 ... a decade later, that figure has fallen to less than 4%, lowest since May 2007 @NDR_Research pic.twitter.com/oHDsuKpmch— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 20, 2026

標普500指數中股息收益率高於10年期國債收益率的股票佔比在2016年7月(排除新冠疫情引發的崩盤時期)曾達到創紀錄的63.4%……十年之後,該數字已降至不足4%,為2007年5月以來最低水平 @NDR_Research pic.twitter.com/oHDsuKpmch—— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) 2026年8月20日

118 Names Above $100 Billion, Yield Less Than The 10-Year Bond

118家市值高於$1,000億的公司,其股息收益率低於10年期國債

A Benzinga Pro screen of U.S. companies with market values above $100 billion returned 118 tickers yielding less than the current 10-year Treasury.

根據Benzinga Pro對市值高於$1,000億的美國公司的篩選,共有118隻股票的股息收益率低於當前10年期美國國債收益率。

Source: Benzinga Pro Scanner, Aug. 20, 2026. Filters used: Mkt Cap >100bn, Dividend yield <4.70%

CompanyDividend Yield
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU)0.06%
Quanta Services Inc. (NYSE:PWR)0.07%
Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL)0.10%
Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ:WDC)0.13%
Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR)0.18%
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM)0.20%
Alphabet Inc.0.26%
Lam Research Corp. (NASDAQ:LRCX)0.34%
Apple Inc.0.34%
Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META)0.38%
Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT)0.43%
Nvidia Corp.0.46%
KLA Corp. (NASDAQ:KLAC)0.49%
Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL)0.58%
Mastercard Inc. (NYSE:MA)0.61%
Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST)0.63%
Amphenol Corp. (NYSE:APH)0.65%
Broadcom Inc.0.71%
Visa Inc. (NYSE:V)0.73%


來源:Benzinga Pro掃描工具,2026年8月20日。篩選條件:市值 >1,000億,股息收益率

公司股息率
美光科技(納斯達克:MU)0.06%
廣達服務公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:PWR)0.07%
邁威爾科技公司(納斯達克代碼:MRVL)0.10%
Western Digital Corp.(納斯達克代碼:WDC)0.13%
前進保險公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:PGR)0.18%
Howmet Aerospace Inc.(紐約證券交易所代碼:HWM)0.20%
Alphabet Inc.0.26%
泛林集團(納斯達克代碼:LRCX)0.34%
蘋果公司0.34%
Meta Platforms Inc.(納斯達克:META)0.38%
應用材料公司(納斯達克股票代碼:AMAT)0.43%
英偉達公司0.46%
科磊公司(納斯達克代碼:KLAC)0.49%
戴爾科技(紐約證券交易所代碼:DELL)0.58%
萬事達公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:MA)0.61%
好市多批發公司(納斯達克代碼:COST)0.63%
安費諾公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:APH)0.65%
博通公司0.71%
Visa公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:V)0.73%


How The Gap Got This Wide

差距為何如此之大

The first is the bond side. The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% this week, its highest since 2007. The 10-year hit 4.75%, a 20-month high, before easing to about 4.65% Thursday. Rising yields raise the bar that any dividend has to clear.

首先是債券方面。本周30年期美國國債收益率觸及5.34%,為2007年以來最高水平。10年期國債收益率升至4.75%,創下20個月新高,隨後在周四回落至約4.65%。收益率上升提高了股息必須跨越的門檻。

The second is the equity side. Mega-cap technology companies have returned capital through share buybacks rather than dividends, and their share prices have risen far faster than any payout has. Yield falls when the denominator runs.

其次是股票方面。超大型科技公司通過股票回購而非派發股息來回饋資本,其股價上漲速度遠快於任何股息支付。當分母快速上升時,股息率就會下降。

Neither force is new. What is new is both running hard at once.

這兩種力量都不是新生事物。新的是兩者同時全力推進。

There is a Federal Reserve fingerprint here too.

這裡也有聯準會的印記。

Long-dated yields surged in part because ChairKevin Warshhas declined to signal a rate hike as his answer to inflation, leaving the long end of the curve to do the tightening instead.

長期收益率大幅飆升,部分原因在於主席Kevin Warsh拒絕以加息作為應對通膨的手段,導致收益率曲線長端不得不承擔起收緊金融環境的任務。

The bond market is setting the hurdle the Fed will not.

債券市場正在設定聯準會不願設定的門檻。

What It Means For Investors

對投資者的影響

For anyone who needs cash from their capital, the arithmetic has flipped.

對於任何需要從本金中獲取現金的人來說,算術邏輯已經逆轉。

The safest asset in the world now outpays almost the entire large-cap universe.

如今,全球最安全的資產所提供的收益已超過幾乎整個大盤股 universe。

That is a reason bonds have been drawing money back. TheiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(NASDAQ:TLT) rallied this week after the Treasury doubled its long-end buyback operations.

這正是債券重新吸引資金流入的原因之一。在財政部將其長期債券回購操作規模翻倍後,20+年以上美國國債ETF-iShares(納斯達克代碼:TLT)本周上漲。

For anyone owning the AI complex, nothing about the thesis changes. Those companies were never bought for income.

對於任何持有AI類股股票的人來說,投資邏輯並未改變。這些公司從來就不是為了股息收益而買入的。

The question is what happens to the 96% if the growth stops arriving.

問題在於,如果增長停止兌現,那剩下的96%會怎樣。 (Benzinga)