The new $1,999 foldable iPhone from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) could eventually account for as much as 20% of iPhone revenue, according to Dan Ives, who says roughly 300 million iPhones have gone more than four years without an upgrade.
據Dan Ives稱，蘋果公司（納斯達克代碼：AAPL）新推出的$1,999可摺疊iPhone最終可能佔到iPhone收入的20%。他表示，目前大約有3億部iPhone已超過四年未升級。
The Yorkville Ives partner called Apple a "sleeping giant" after Wednesday's iPhone Duo unveiling and gave new CEO John Ternus an "A-" for his first major product event.
在周三iPhone Duo發佈後，Yorkville Ives的合夥人稱蘋果為「沉睡的巨人」，並給新任首席執行長John Ternus在其首次重大產品活動中的表現打了「A-」評分。
Ives Tops Munster's Bull Case
Ives超越芒斯特的樂觀情景預測
Deepwater Asset Management'sGene Munsterraised his estimate for the Duo after seeing the device, saying it could account for 10% of iPhone revenue in fiscal 2027, up from 5%.
Deepwater Asset Management的Gene Munster在親眼看到該設備後上調了對Duo的預期，稱其在2027財年可能佔iPhone收入的10%，高於此前的5%。
"I'll even further it. It could be 15 to 20%," Ives told CNBC.
Ives告訴CNBC：「我甚至認爲會更高，可能達到15%到20%。」
Apple generated $209.6 billion in iPhone revenue in fiscal 2025. At that level, a 20% share would equal about $42 billion in annual sales.
蘋果在2025財年實現了$2,096億的iPhone收入。按此水平計算，20%的份額將相當於約$420億的年銷售額。
Munster's 10% estimate assumes a third of Pro Max buyers trade up to the Duo, lifting iPhone revenue about 5% and total Apple revenue about 2.5%.
Munster的10%預測假設Pro Max用戶中有三分之一會升級到Duo，從而推動iPhone收入增長約5%，蘋果整體收入增長約2.5%。
Before Apple set the Duo's price, IDC forecast the company would ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones by 2027 at an average selling price above $2,550, generating more than $45.7 billion in value.
在蘋果確定Duo定價之前，IDC曾預測該公司到2027年將出貨超過1,700萬部可摺疊iPhone，平均售價高於$2,550，創造的價值將超過$457億。
300 Million iPhones in the Upgrade Window
3億部iPhone處於升級窗口期
Ives has used that estimate since at least 2024, when he argued an aging installed base could fuel an iPhone upgrade cycle.
自2024年以來，Ives一直使用這一估計數據，當時他曾指出老化的存量用戶群可能推動一輪iPhone升級周期。
IDC expects worldwide smartphone shipments to fall 16.7% in 2026 while average selling prices rise 27.6% as memory costs surge. Foldables are one of the few categories it still expects to grow.
IDC預計，受內存成本飆升影響，2026年全球智能手機出貨量將下降16.7%，而平均售價將上漲27.6%。摺疊屏手機是爲數不多仍有望增長的品類之一。
Ives said the Duo is only the first step. He expects Apple to roll out more AI capabilities before a bigger push around the iPhone's 20th anniversary next year.
Ives表示，Duo只是第一步。他預計蘋果將在明年iPhone問世20周年之際推出更多AI功能，並進行更大規模的推廣。
"What everyone is waiting for is when do you actually have an AI-enabled device for consumers?" he said.
「大家都在等待的是，你究竟什麼時候才會推出一款面向消費者的AI設備？」他說道。
Traders Aren't Buying It Yet
交易員尚未買帳
Prediction traders have become less bullish on Apple's chances of retaking the valuation crown this year.
預測市場交易員對蘋果今年重新奪回市值榜首的可能性變得不那麼樂觀。
Polymarket givesNvidia Corp.(NASDAQ:NVDA) a 79% chance of ending 2026 as the world's largest company by market capitalization, compared with 14% for Apple. More than $7 million has traded on the market.
Polymarket給出的概率顯示，輝達公司（納斯達克股票代碼：NVDA）有79%的幾率在2026年底成爲全球市值最高的公司，而蘋果的概率爲14%。該市場上已有超過$700萬的交易量。
Apple briefly overtook Nvidia as Polymarket's favorite in July after Apple reclaimed the world's most valuable company title, helped by its own rally and a pullback in Nvidia and other AI chip stocks.
今年7月，在蘋果重新奪回全球市值最高公司頭銜後（得益於其自身股價上漲以及輝達和其他AI芯片股的回調），蘋果曾在Polymarket上短暫超越輝達，成爲市場最看好的公司。
The Duo goes on sale Oct. 23, leaving just over two months before the market resolves Dec. 31.
Duo將於10月23日開售，距離市場於12月31日結算僅剩兩個多月時間。
Apple shares closed 0.28% lower at $315.34 Wednesday.
蘋果股價周三收盤下跌0.28%，報$315.34。 (Benzinga)