Investor Michael Burry, famous for betting against the housing bubble, says the federal government may be in no shape to rescue markets the next time a bubble bursts.
以做空房地產泡沫而聞名的投資者麥可·貝瑞表示，下一次泡沫破裂時，聯邦政府可能已無力出手救市。
AAPL stock is moving. See the chart and price action here.
蘋果公司股價正在波動。請在此查看圖表與價格走勢。
In a recent post on his Substack, "Cassandra Unchained", Burry argued Washington has used real crises as cover to abandon fiscal caution and then kept it abandoned. The result, in his view, leaves policymakers in a weak position to support what he describes as a private debt bubble once it breaks.
在近期發表於其Substack專欄「Cassandra Unchained」中，貝瑞指出，華盛頓當局曾以歷次真實危機為掩護，放棄財政審慎，並且此後始終未能回歸這一原則。在他看來，這種做法使得政策制定者在面對他所稱的私人債務泡沫破裂時，處於極為不利的境地。
He called the decision to take on so much debt while repeatedly cutting short the market's natural recovery process "unconscionable."
他稱，在一再打斷市場自然復甦進程的同時，仍大舉舉債的決定「極不道德」。
Consequences will follow, he wrote. They may have started already.
後果將隨之而來，他寫道。它們或許早已開始顯現。
Breadth Flashing Red
廣度閃爍紅色
The warning capped a lengthy study of market breadth built on decades of historical index membership data.
這一警告爲一項基於數十年曆史指數成分股數據、歷時已久的市場廣度研究畫上了句號。
Burry tracked what he calls the Bear Market Ratio, the share of S&P 500 members trading more than 20% below their 10-year highs. When the index, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), closed at a record on Oct. 6, the ratio stood at 55%. At the Aug. 13 record, it was 47%.
貝瑞追蹤了他所謂的「熊市比率」，即標普500指數成分股中股價較10年高點下跌超過20%的公司所佔比例。當由標普500ETF-SPDR（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）跟蹤的該指數於10月6日收於歷史新高時，這一比率高達55%。而在8月13日創下歷史高點時，該比率僅爲47%。
Only one record high in four decades came with a worse reading. In March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble, 71.2% of index members sat in their own bear markets. Ordinary market tops since 1985 registered between roughly 20% and 31%.
四十年來，只有一輪創紀錄的上漲伴隨着更糟糕的表現。2000年3月，正值互聯網泡沫巔峰時期，指數成分股中有71.2%正處於各自的熊市之中。自1985年以來，歷次普通意義上的市場見頂點的漲幅大致介於20%至31%之間。
Thin Leadership
精益領導力
Other measures look thin as well. Just 15 S&P 500 stocks closed at a new high alongside the index on Oct. 6, and only 97 traded within 10% of one. In March 2000, the figures were 15 and 87.
其他指標也顯得乏力。10月6日，標普500指數創下新高時，僅有15只成分股同步收於歷史新高，而股價波動幅度在該指數10%以內的成分股也只有97只。相比之下，2000年3月的相應數據分別爲15只和87只。
The median stock in the index now sits 22% below its high. At the 2000 peak, the median was 31% below.
該指數中的中位數個股目前較其歷史高點下跌了22%。而在2000年峰值時，中位數的跌幅爲31%。
Burry also built a narrower gauge, the Fresh Drawdown Ratio, to filter out stocks still weighed down by peaks from years earlier. Ordinary tops produced readings between 6% and 13%. The current reading is 27%, about half the 2000 level.
貝瑞還構建了一個更爲狹窄的指標——「新鮮回撤比」，用以剔除那些仍受多年以前高點拖累的股票。普通頂部指標的讀數通常介於6%至13%之間，而當前讀數爲27%，約爲2000年水平的一半。
"More like 2000 than any time since, but not 2000 yet," he wrote.
「比起以往任何時期，更接近2000，但還不到2000，」他寫道。
A Slow Grind Lower
一個緩慢的磨礪更低
His base case calls for a market decline in which the leaders fall while the median beaten-down stock rises, a pattern seen only after the 2000 top. Burry does not necessarily expect one big crash. He sees stocks drifting lower, at times violently, as weak fundamental news works its way into the artificial intelligence story.
他的基準情景假設市場將出現一輪調整：龍頭股下跌，而那些長期承壓的中位數個股卻逆勢上漲——這種走勢僅在2000年見頂後才曾出現。貝瑞並不一定預期會出現一次劇烈的崩盤；他預計股市將逐步走低，且有時波動劇烈，因爲疲弱的基本面消息會逐漸反映到人工智能這一主題之中。
Burry credited the "plunge protection team" with skill at handling sudden selloffs. A market deteriorating on both fundamental and technical grounds, with shrinking participation, poses a harder problem. Cheerleading will not fix it, he suggested.
貝瑞稱讚「救市小組」在應對突發性拋售方面表現出色。當市場在基本面與技術面雙重惡化、參與度持續萎縮時，問題將更加棘手。他指出，靠人爲鼓吹已無濟於事。
Burry has questioned AI spending for weeks. In an earlier post, he wrote the largest tech companies, with the exception of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), are spending as if their survival depended on it.
貝瑞已連續數周質疑人工智能領域的支出。他在早前的一篇文章中寫道，除蘋果公司（納斯達克股票代碼：AAPL）外，各大科技公司正不惜重金投入，彷彿其存亡繫於此。
"Denial is a hell of a drug," he wrote, "and I will be watching."
「否認是一種可怕的毒品，」他寫道，「而我會一直盯着看。」 (Benzinga)