【Joe’s華爾街脈動】周報：關稅緊張局勢和鮑爾-川普之爭繼續證明防禦性佈局的合理性

外國政府拋售美國國債引發美國聯準會可能干預的隱憂

Joe Lu, CFA 2025年4月19日 美東時間

一週市場觀點

因關稅不確定性和川普總統與美國聯準會主席鮑爾之間不斷升級的衝突，美國市場繼續經歷重大波動，為投資者創造了特別具有挑戰性的環境。儘管存在這些擔憂，主要指數本周收盤持平。

債券市場顯示出特別令人擔憂的跡象，上週的市場走勢表明，外國持有者，特別是中國和具潛在可能性的日本，可能正在減少他們對美國國債的持有量，以應對與美國之間的貿易緊張局勢。如果債券市場波動繼續升級，這可能會迫使美國聯準會進行干預，這將有利於所有金融資產。

關稅情況仍然變化不定，市場在有關潛在貿易協議的報導後短暫反彈，然後回到謹慎定位。川普總統暗示可能暫停關稅的言論提供了短暫的樂觀情緒，但未能產生持續動力。前所未有的波動反映了市場難以對這些政策變化的經濟影響方面進行定價。

川普總統與美國聯準會主席鮑爾之間不斷升級的衝突增加了另一層複雜性。川普最近在社交媒體上發帖稱「鮑爾的任期盡快結束 (Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough)」，這讓已經擔心貨幣政策獨立性的投資者感到震驚。鮑爾表示，鑑於政策的不確定性，他不急於降息，這進一步複雜化了金融格局。這種公開的爭吵造成了額外的不確定性，因為市場試圖預測潛在的政策轉變及其對通貨膨脹、成長和企業利潤的影響。

摘要：

• 由於關稅實施的不確定性以及鮑爾-川普政策衝突升級的情況下，市場持續劇烈波動
• 能源和房地產類股帶動股市週線上揚
• 黃金作為避險資產繼續保持強勁走勢
• 國債殖利率下降，各期限債券價格皆上漲
• 比特幣在政策不確定性中表現強勢

一週焦點清單

黃金

• 週度強勁走勢反映持續的避險需求
• 在政策不確定性中，傳統避險資產吸引資金
• 關稅實施帶來的通貨膨脹憂慮提供結構性的支持
• 當前技術模式表明強勢將持續，但可能出現盤整
• 防禦特性與日益謹慎的市場情緒一致

短期國債

• 與長期國債相比，表現出相對穩定性
• 存續期較短，在殖利率曲線陡峭化的情況下可降低波動性
• 在不確定性持續的情況下，可能受益於流動性資金的湧入
• 技術模式顯示比長期限國債更好的風險回報特性
• 當利率預期改變時，將利率配置在政策敏感曲線部分

國債避險

• 債券市場波動為各期限債券的週度下跌創造機會
• 隨著中國和日本重新考慮持倉，外國拋售壓力可能加劇
• 技術模式顯示國債價格持續承壓
• 美國聯準會的干預行為恐將為利率市場帶來更多不確定性
• 與股市上漲的不尋常相關模式

股票避險

• 儘管週度強勁反彈，整體市場仍存在脆弱性
• 技術模式在多個時間框架顯示惡化
• 財報季產生增加波動性的潛在催化因素
• 儘管最近有所反彈，政策不確定性仍支持避險策略
• 鑑於極端市場波動，建議選擇性定位

歐洲股票

• 相對於其他地區，歐洲表現出強勁的週度趨勢
• 較少直接受美中貿易緊張關係影響，從而提供比較優勢
• 技術模式在多個時間框架顯示改善
• 全球資本流動的轉向可能有利於歐洲資產
• 歐洲中央銀行政策上的差異創造有利的貨幣環境

印度股票

• 與整體新興市場相比，週度表現相對穩定性
• 中美貿易爭議影響有限，提供緩衝
• 與市場平均相比，波動較低
• 技術模式相對於其他新興經濟體表現相對強勢
• 多元化有利於吸引尋求新興市場投資的資本

波克夏海瑟威公司

• 強勁的週度表現，波動性低於大盤
• 防禦性商業模式在市場壓力期間提供相對穩定性
• 大量現金持倉在不確定的環境中創造了更多選擇性
• 受國際貿易緊張關係直接的影響有限
• 管理層信譽在政策不確定性中提供信心

比特幣

• 週度強勁增長反映作為政策避險的潛在角色
• 表現受益於川普對加密貨幣的積極態度
• 較高波動性反映投機性質的特徵
• 機構接受度提高，提供結構性支持
• 在關稅擔憂情況下，作為通貨膨脹避險的潛在特性吸引資本

焦點清單調整

鑑於持續的市場波動和多個時間框架內技術模式的惡化，焦點清單繼續強調通過國債和現在的股票對沖避險進行防禦性定位。這些持倉部位需要仔細監控，因為極端波動和政策驅動逆轉的可能性，但其防禦特性在當前不確定環境中仍然有價值。

歐洲股票市場因其令人印象深刻的技術強度，以及相對不受美中貿易緊張關係直接影響而被列入焦點清單中。隨著歐洲中央銀行政策與美國聯準會的方法出現分歧，該地區在美國政策不確定的情況下，提供了潛在並具吸引力的多元化收益。市場在最近波動期間的相對彈性表明，隨著全球資本流動調整適應不斷變化的貿易格局，機構定位可能會繼續青睞歐洲資產。

印度股票市場因其在新興市場普遍波動中的顯著穩定性，而納入焦點清單。由於受美國關稅政策影響有限，且國內經濟基本面強勁，印度在新興市場空間內提供了一個引人注目的替代選擇。市場的較低波動性特徵和積極的月度表現顯示，如果全球貿易緊張局勢持續影響更多出口依賴型經濟體，(印度市場)相對強勢的表現可能會持續。

比特幣被添加到焦點清單中，反映了其在當前環境中作為潛在政策避險的新興角色。儘管其固有的投機性質和較高的波動性特徵，比特幣在政治和經濟不確定性中表現出了顯著的強勢。川普政府對加密貨幣積極支持的立場提供了額外的優勢，這使比特幣與傳統避險資產有所區別。

市場對外國(特別是中國和日本)拋售美國國債的擔憂日益加劇，加強了國債避險作為防禦策略的理由。如果這種拋售壓力加劇，可能會迫使美國聯準會干預並在已經具有挑戰性的關稅和貨幣政策格局之外創造額外的市場混亂。

未來展望

隨著財報季加速，市場正面臨關鍵期，提供了公司如何應對不確定政策格局的切實證據。金融行業財報顯示出一些彈性，但管理層關於「經濟變化」的謹慎評論，表明對潛在挑戰的認識不斷增加。

如果債券市場波動繼續升級，特別是由於外國拋售壓力，美國聯準會的政策立場仍然是一個關鍵焦點。總統和美國聯準會主席之間不尋常的公開衝突產生了額外的不確定性，但無論關係緊張與否，國債不穩定造成的潛在市場混亂，可能會迫使聯準會進行干預。

國際發展需要密切關注，特別是關於烏克蘭持續緊張的局勢。儘管普丁宣布復活節停火，但受到烏克蘭官員的懷疑，並表示無人機攻擊仍持續進行，這代表了影響市場情緒的複雜地緣政治格局中的另一變數。

這種複雜的背景表明，隨著市場消化這些競爭力量，波動性將繼續。在資產類別中明顯的防禦性定位表明，儘管週度強勁反彈，投資者正以日益謹慎的態度應對這一時期。

關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Tariff Tensions and Powell-Trump Feud Continue to Justify Defensive Positioning

Foreign Governments Selling U.S. Treasuries Raises Potential of Fed Intervention

By Joe Lu, CFA April 19, 2025

Market Perspective

U.S. markets continue to experience substantial volatility as tariff uncertainties and the escalating conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell create a particularly challenging environment for investors. Despite these concerns, major indices finish fixed.

The bond market is showing especially troubling signs, as last week’s market action suggests that foreign holders, particularly China and potentially Japan, may be reducing their Treasury holdings in response to trade tensions between their countries and the United States. This could force Federal Reserve intervention if bond market volatility continues to escalate, which would be beneficial for all financial assets.

The tariff situation remains fluid, with markets briefly rallying on reports of potential trade deals before returning to cautious positioning. President Trump's comments suggesting a possible suspension of tariffs provided momentary optimism but failed to generate sustained momentum. The unprecedented volatility reflects the market's difficulty in pricing the economic impact of these policy changes.

The intensifying conflict between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell adds another layer of complexity. Trump's recent social media post suggesting "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough" has rattled investors already concerned about monetary policy independence. Powell's comments that he's in no hurry to cut interest rates given the uncertain policy backdrop has further complicated the financial landscape. This public feud creates additional uncertainty as markets attempt to price in potential policy shifts and their implications for inflation, growth, and corporate profits.

Executive Summary:

• Markets are experiencing continued heightened volatility amid tariff implementation uncertainties and an escalating Powell-Trump policy conflicts
• Energy and Real Estate sectors leading the weekly advance among stocks
• Gold maintaining momentum as safe-haven demand persists
• Treasury yields falling with prices rising across maturity spectrum
• Bitcoin showing strength amid policy uncertainty

This Week’s Focus List

Gold

• Strong weekly momentum reflecting continued safe-haven demand
• Traditional safe-haven status attracting capital amid policy uncertainty
• Inflationary concerns from tariff implementation providing structural support
• Current technical patterns suggest continued strength with potential consolidation
• Defensive characteristics align with increasingly cautious market sentiment

Short-Dated Treasury Bonds

• Showing relative stability compared to longer-dated instruments
• Lower duration profile providing reduced volatility amid yield curve steepening
• Potentially benefiting from flight to liquidity as uncertainty persists
• Technical patterns suggesting better risk-reward profile than longer maturities
• Positioning near policy-sensitive portion of the curve amid rate expectations shifts

Treasury Hedges

• Bond market volatility creating opportunities with weekly declines across maturities
• Foreign selling pressure potentially intensifying as China and Japan reconsider holdings
• Technical patterns suggesting continued pressure on Treasury prices
• Fed intervention concerns creating additional uncertainty in interest rate markets
• Unusual correlation pattern with rising equity markets

Equity Hedges

• Broad market vulnerability persists despite strong weekly rebounds
• Technical patterns showing deterioration across multiple timeframes
• Earnings season creating potential catalysts for increased volatility
• Policy uncertainty supporting hedging strategies despite recent gains
• Selective positioning recommended given extreme market volatility

European Equities

• Europe showing strong weekly performance relative to other regions
• Less direct exposure to U.S.-China trade tensions providing comparative advantage
• Technical patterns showing improvement over multiple timeframes
• Rotation of global capital flows potentially benefiting European assets
• Central bank policy divergence creating supportive monetary backdrop

Indian Equities

• Weekly performance showing relative stability compared to broader EM volatility
• Limited direct exposure to U.S.-China trade disputes providing buffer
• Lower volatility profile compared to market average
• Technical patterns showing relative strength versus other emerging economies
• Diversification benefits attracting capital seeking emerging market exposure

Berkshire Hathaway

• Strong weekly performance with lower volatility than broader market
• Defensive business model providing relative stability during market stress
• Significant cash position creating optionality in uncertain environment
• Limited direct exposure to international trade tensions
• Management credibility providing confidence during policy uncertainty

Bitcoin

• Robust weekly gain reflecting potential role as policy hedge
• Performance benefiting from Trump's pro-crypto positioning
• Higher volatility profile reflecting speculative nature
• Increased institutional acceptance providing structural support
• Potential inflation hedge characteristics attracting capital amid tariff concerns

Focus List Adjustments

Our focus list maintains an emphasis on defensive positioning through Treasury and now equity hedges again given the continued market volatility and deteriorating technical patterns across multiple timeframes. These positions warrant careful monitoring given the extreme volatility and potential for policy-driven reversals, but their protective characteristics remain valuable in the current uncertain environment.

European equity markets have been added to the focus list based on their impressive technical strength and relative insulation from direct U.S.-China trade tensions. With the European Central Bank policies diverging from the Federal Reserve's approach, the region offers potentially attractive diversification benefits amid U.S. policy uncertainty. The market's relative resilience during recent volatility suggests institutional positioning could continue to favor European assets as global capital flows adjust to the evolving trade landscape.

Indian equity markets join our focus list given their remarkable stability amid broader emerging market volatility. With limited direct exposure to U.S. tariff policies and strong domestic economic fundamentals, India presents a compelling alternative within the emerging market space. The market's lower volatility profile and positive monthly performance signal relative strength that could persist if global trade tensions continue to impact more export-dependent economies.

Bitcoin's addition to the focus list reflects its emerging role as a potential policy hedge in the current environment. Despite its inherently speculative nature and higher volatility profile, Bitcoin has demonstrated significant strength amid political and economic uncertainty. The Trump administration's apparently favorable stance toward cryptocurrencies provides an additional tailwind that distinguishes Bitcoin from traditional safe-haven assets.

The growing concerns about foreign Treasury selling, particularly from China and potentially Japan, reinforce the case for Treasury hedges as part of a defensive strategy. If this selling pressure intensifies, it could force Federal Reserve intervention and create additional market disruptions beyond the already challenging tariff and monetary policy landscape.

Looking Ahead

Markets face a crucial period as earnings season accelerates, providing tangible evidence of how companies are navigating the uncertain policy landscape. Financial sector earnings have shown some resilience, but cautionary management commentary about "a changing economy" suggests growing awareness of potential challenges ahead.

The Federal Reserve's policy stance remains a critical focus, particularly if bond market volatility continues to escalate due to foreign selling pressure. The unusual public conflict between the president and Fed chair creates additional uncertainty, but potential market disruptions from Treasury instability could force intervention regardless of the strained relationship.

International developments warrant close attention, particularly regarding ongoing Ukraine tensions. Putin's declaration of an Easter ceasefire, though met with skepticism from Ukrainian officials who reported continued drone attacks, represents another variable in the complex geopolitical picture affecting market sentiment.

This complex backdrop suggests continued volatility as markets digest these competing forces. The defensive positioning evident across asset classes indicates investors are approaching this period with increasing caution despite the strong weekly rebounds.