輝達獲准恢復對中高階晶片銷售，掃除關鍵地緣政治隱憂，助燃科技股飆漲，為台股創紀錄行情鋪路。Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月8日 美東時間摘要輝達H200晶片對中銷售獲准，加上對聯準會降息的高度預期，提振了風險偏好，全球股市有望上漲。在台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)大漲2.43%及AI供應鏈地緣政治風險降低的驅動下，台股大漲逾300點，收復28,000點大關。市場已反映週三聯準會降息機率近90%，並靜待2026年政策路徑指引，公債殖利率微幅走高至4.17%。川普政府有條件批准輝達對中國出口先進AI晶片，成為科技產業最主要的正向催化劑。儘管市場風險偏好情緒高漲，黃金仍持穩於每盎司4,200美元附近，顯示儘管投資者逢低買進科技股，但對長期經濟前景仍保持謹慎。市場迎來了雙重樂觀情緒的強力注入。首先，川普政府有條件批准輝達(NVIDIA)恢復對中國出口其先進的H200 AI晶片，此舉掃除了一直困擾半導體產業的巨大地緣政治隱憂。此一包含與美國政府達成營收分享協議的政策轉向，立即受到投資者歡迎，推升輝達股價上揚，並點燃了AI相關個股的廣泛漲勢。其次，市場已有效地鎖定聯準會週三的降息決議，隱含機率盤旋在近90%。監管壓力緩解與即將到來的貨幣支持相結合，已重新點燃市場的風險偏好，驅動標普500指數與那斯達克指數重返歷史高點附近。此一具建設性的背景，正成為台灣市場的火箭燃料。台股加權指數(TAIEX)大漲超過322點，收在28,303點，果決地收復了具心理重要性的28,000點大關。此波漲勢由台積電(TSMC)領軍，其美國存託憑證(ADR)隔夜大漲2.43%，反映了這家晶圓代工巨擘將從中國對高階AI晶片重燃的需求中直接受益。技術指標已全面轉為看漲，隨著法人機構為年底績效的「作帳行情」現已展開，阻力最小的路徑是向上。市場總市值正逼近歷史性的新台幣百兆元里程碑，突顯了此波由流動性驅動的漲勢之規模。然而，盤面之下正浮現分歧。當大型科技股與AI龍頭上漲之際，其他板塊則顯現壓力跡象。邁威爾科技(Marvell Technology)因對其超大規模資料中心業務的擔憂而下跌近7%，突顯了即使在成長股交易中，投資者也變得更具辨別力。此外，儘管黃金維持在歷史高點附近，但比特幣相較於股市的表現則顯得溫吞，顯示投機狂熱並不如先前幾波漲勢那般猖獗。在我們進入聯準會會議之際，關鍵的風險已非降息本身，而是前瞻指引。若聯準會釋出的2026年路徑比市場預期的更為謹慎，當前的 euphoric 情緒可能將面臨迅速的考驗。週一資產焦點：美國股市與個股趨勢本摘要總結了美國主要股價指數及領先企業為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。圖表一：美國股價指數(美元計價)道瓊工業平均指數(代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲標普500指數(代表性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲那斯達克綜合指數(代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲羅素2000指數(代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --費城半導體指數(代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲美國股市基準指數普遍觀察到一致的趨勢轉強。道瓊工業平均指數、標普500指數、那斯達克綜合指數及費城半導體指數，皆從溫和正向轉強為強勁正向。此一正面動能亦擴及小型股，羅素2000指數的指標從中性轉為溫和正向。此數據指向美國更廣泛市場的前景已出現同步改善。圖表二：美國前五大企業(美元計價)輝達(NVIDIA Corp, NVDA): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼蘋果(Apple Inc, AAPL): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲微軟(Microsoft Corp, MSFT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc, AMZN): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲美國最大型的企業中，出現了好壞參半的趨勢變化格局。輝達(NVIDIA)出現趨勢反轉，從溫和負向改善至溫和正向。相較之下，亞馬遜(Amazon)的評估則轉弱，從溫和正向轉為溫和負向。蘋果(Apple)和Alphabet維持其強勁正向的趨勢，而微軟(Microsoft)則守住其溫和負向的評級。這顯示這些大型科技龍頭呈現的是獨特的個股趨勢樣貌，而非群體一致的走勢。📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。如果您覺得這份研究有價值：👍為這篇文章按讚。📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。NVIDIA's China Win and Fed Cut Hopes Ignite Tech Rally; TAIEX Targets New HighsApproval for NVIDIA to resume high-end chip sales to China removes a key geopolitical overhang, fueling a tech surge that positions the TAIEX for a record-breaking run.By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-08Executive SummaryGlobal equities are poised for gains as the approval of NVIDIA's H200 chip sales to China and high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut boost risk appetite.The TAIEX surged over 300 points to reclaim the 28,000 level, driven by a 2.43% jump in TSMC's ADR and reduced geopolitical risk for the AI supply chain.Treasury yields ticked higher to 4.17% as markets priced in a near 90% probability of a Wednesday Fed rate cut while awaiting guidance on the 2026 policy path.The Trump administration's conditional approval for NVIDIA to export advanced AI chips to China served as the primary positive catalyst for the technology sector.Gold held firm near $4,200/oz despite the risk-on mood, signaling that investors remain cautious about the long-term economic outlook even as they buy the dip in tech.The market has received a powerful dual-injection of optimism. First, the Trump administration’s conditional approval for NVIDIA to resume exporting its advanced H200 AI chips to China removes a massive geopolitical overhang that has plagued the semiconductor sector. This policy shift, which includes a revenue-sharing agreement with the U.S. government, was immediately cheered by investors, sending NVIDIA shares higher and sparking a broad rally in AI-related stocks. Second, the market has effectively locked in a Federal Reserve rate cut for Wednesday, with the implied probability hovering near 90%. This combination of eased regulatory pressure and imminent monetary support has reignited risk appetite, driving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq back toward record highs.This constructive backdrop is acting as rocket fuel for the Taiwan market. The TAIEX surged over 322 points to close at 28,303, decisively reclaiming the psychologically important 28,000 level. The rally was spearheaded by TSMC, whose ADR jumped 2.43% overnight, reflecting the direct benefit the foundry giant will see from renewed Chinese demand for high-end AI silicon. Technical indicators have turned bullish across the board, and with institutional "window dressing" for year-end performance now underway, the path of least resistance is higher. The market capitalization is approaching the historic NT$100 trillion milestone, underscoring the magnitude of this liquidity-driven advance.However, a divergence is emerging under the surface. While mega-cap tech and AI leaders are rallying, other segments are showing signs of stress. Marvell Technology fell nearly 7% on concerns about its hyperscaler business, highlighting that investors are becoming more discerning even within the growth trade. Additionally, while gold remains near record highs, Bitcoin's performance has been tepid compared to equities, suggesting that speculative fervor is not as rampant as in previous rallies. As we head into the Fed meeting, the key risk is not the rate cut itself, but the forward guidance. If the Fed signals a more cautious path for 2026 than the market expects, the current euphoria could face a swift test.Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity & Company TrendsThis brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for major U.S. equity indices and leading U.S. companies. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▲, Last Week: --PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲A uniform strengthening of trend assessments was observed across U.S. equity benchmarks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and PHLX Semiconductor Index all improved from mildly positive to strongly positive. This positive momentum also extended to small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 indicator moving from neutral to mildly positive. This data points to a cohesive improvement in the outlook for the broader U.S. market.Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲Alphabet Inc Class A (Ticker: GOOGL): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲A mixed set of trend changes occurred among the largest U.S. companies. NVIDIA saw a trend reversal, improving from mildly negative to mildly positive. In contrast, Amazon’s assessment weakened, shifting from mildly positive to mildly negative. Apple and Alphabet maintained their strongly positive trends, while Microsoft held its mildly negative rating. This suggests distinct, individual trend profiles for these mega-cap technology leaders rather than a group movement.📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.if you found this research valuable:👍'Like' this post.📰Follow this blog for new market updates.➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

降息押注鞏固，標普500指數逼近歷史高點；NVIDIA監管利多，吸引外資重返台股。Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月5日 美東時間摘要「溫和」的美國通膨數據鞏固了聯準會十二月降息的預期，全球股市擴大漲勢，主要指數逼近歷史高點。在外資逾百億買超及AI供應鏈監管風險降低的驅動下，台股加權指數(TAIEX)今日大漲。九月份個人消費支出(PCE)報告符合預期，強化了市場對持續寬鬆週期的信念，公債殖利率穩定在4.1%附近。輝達(NVIDIA)成功遊說反對美國國防法案中新的AI出口限制，為半導體產業提供了關鍵順風。在ETF資金外流與宏觀市場緊張情緒的壓力下，比特幣與股市急遽分歧，滑落回89,000美元附近。延後公布的美國九月份個人消費支出(PCE)通膨數據，因符合市場普遍預期，已有效地鎖定了聯準會下週的降息決議。此一「溫和」的數據，為決策者移除了最後的障礙，將市場隱含的十二月十日降息機率推升至約87%。市場的反應是一場果決的風險偏好走勢，標普500指數與那斯達克指數連續第四日上漲，距離歷史高點僅不到1%。在Netflix與華納兄弟探索(Warner Bros. Discovery)之間一項高達720億美元的併購案宣布下，投資狂熱情緒(animal spirits)的復甦得到進一步證明，此訊號顯示企業信心正隨著流動性回歸。對台灣市場而言，此一看漲的宏觀背景，正被一項關鍵的產業特定勝利所放大。報導指稱輝達(NVIDIA)執行長黃仁勳成功遊說白宮，將具限制性的《GAINAIACT》從年度國防法案中排除，此舉已掃除了一項巨大的監管隱憂。此一政策上的勝利，直接提振了整個AI供應鏈，驗證了高階晶片出口管道的韌性。外資法人立即作出反應，回補逾百億新台幣買超台股，推動台股加權指數(TAIEX)上漲185點，兵臨28,000點大關。外資的回籠，加上台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的走強，顯示本地市場的盤整階段正朝上檔突破。然而，風險格局中仍存在顯著的兩極分化。當傳統股市上漲之際，加密貨幣市場仍承受巨大壓力，比特幣在持續的ETF資金外流中，滑落回89,000美元附近。此一分歧顯示，法人資本正輪動至高品質的成長股與傳統風險性資產，而非投機性標的。展望下週，焦點完全集中在聯準會。在降息已成定局的情況下，市場的軌跡將取決於聯準會對2026年的前瞻指引。對台灣而言，技術面已顯著轉強；若成交量能擴大以確認此波走勢，突破創下歷史新高將是阻力最小的路徑。週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢本摘要總結了美國和台灣資產管理規模最大的交易所買賣基金(ETF)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。圖表一：美國資產規模前五大ETF(美元計價)Vanguard標普500指數ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲iShares核心標普500指數ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲SPDR標普500指數ETF信託 (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲Vanguard整體股市指數ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲Invesco QQQ信託系列1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲美國規模最大的幾檔ETF，其趨勢普遍出現一致的轉強。代表標普500指數、美國整體股市及那斯達克100指數的所有五檔基金，其指標皆從溫和正向轉強為強勁正向。此一同步轉變，指向過去一週美國主要股價指數基準的正向動能已出現基礎廣泛的增強。圖表二：台灣資產規模前五大ETF(新台幣計價)元大台灣卓越50基金 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲元大高股息基金 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼國泰永續高股息基金 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼群益台灣精選高息基金 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼富邦台灣采吉50基金 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲台灣的高股息ETF內部出現了明顯的回穩。國泰永續高股息ETF(00878)和群益台灣精選高息ETF(00919)的趨勢指標，從強勁負向改善至中性；而元大高股息ETF(0056)則從溫和負向轉為中性。這與廣泛市值加權的基金(0050和006208)形成對比，後者維持其溫和正向的趨勢。此資訊顯示，高股息類股的賣壓本週已顯著緩解。📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。如果您覺得這份研究有價值：👍為這篇文章按讚。📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。Benign Inflation Data Clears Runway for Fed CutS&P 500 nears record highs as rate cut bets solidify, while a major regulatory victory for NVIDIA draws foreign capital back into the TAIEX.By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-05Executive SummaryGlobal equities extended their rally as "benign" U.S. inflation data cemented expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, pushing major indices near all-time highs.The TAIEX surged today driven by over NT$10 billion in foreign buying and reduced regulatory risks for the AI supply chain.Treasury yields stabilized near 4.1% as the September PCE report met expectations, reinforcing the market's conviction in a continued easing cycle.NVIDIA's successful lobbying against new AI export restrictions in the U.S. defense bill provided a critical tailwind for the semiconductor sector.Bitcoin diverged sharply from the equity rally, sliding back toward $89,000 as ETF outflows and macro jitters weighed on speculative assets.The release of delayed U.S. September PCE inflation data, which matched consensus expectations, has effectively locked in a Federal Reserve rate cut for next week. This "benign" print removed the final obstacle for policymakers, pushing the market-implied probability of a December 10 cut to roughly 87%. The reaction was a decisive risk-on move in equities, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ logging their fourth consecutive advance to trade within 1% of all-time highs. This renewal of animal spirits was further evidenced by a massive $72 billion M&A announcement between Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery, signaling that corporate confidence is returning alongside liquidity.For the Taiwan market, the bullish macro backdrop is being amplified by a critical industry-specific victory. Reports that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang successfully lobbied the White House to exclude the restrictive GAIN AI Act from the annual defense bill have removed a massive regulatory overhang. This policy win is a direct boost to the entire AI supply chain, validating the resilience of the export channel for high-end chips. Foreign investors responded immediately, pouring over NT$10 billion back into the TAIEX, driving the index up 185 points to the doorstep of the 28,000 level. The return of foreign capital, combined with TSMC's strengthening ADR, suggests the local market's consolidation phase is resolving to the upside.However, a notable bifurcation persists in the risk landscape. While traditional equities are rallying, the cryptocurrency market remains under significant pressure, with Bitcoin sliding back toward $89,000 amidst persistent ETF outflows. This divergence indicates that institutional capital is rotating toward high-quality growth and traditional risk assets rather than speculative plays. Looking ahead to next week, the focus is squarely on the Federal Reserve. With the rate cut now priced in, the market's trajectory will depend on the Fed's forward guidance for 2026. For Taiwan, the technical picture has strengthened significantly; if trading volume expands to confirm this move, a breakout to new record highs is the path of least resistance.Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF TrendsThis brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for the largest U.S. and Taiwanese exchange-traded funds by assets under management. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲A uniform strengthening of trends occurred across the largest U.S. ETFs. All five funds, representing the S&P 500, the total U.S. stock market, and the NASDAQ 100, saw their indicators improve from mildly positive to strongly positive. This coordinated shift points to a broad-based increase in positive momentum across major U.S. equity benchmarks over the past week.Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: --, Last Week: ▼Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲A distinct stabilization appeared within Taiwan's high-dividend ETFs. The trend indicators for the Cathay ESG (00878) and Capital TIP (00919) ETFs improved from strongly negative to neutral, while the Yuanta Dividend Plus ETF (0056) moved from mildly negative to neutral. This contrasts with the broad market-cap weighted funds (0050 and 006208), which maintained their mildly positive trends. This information suggests that selling pressure in the high-dividend segment eased significantly this week.📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content. 💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.if you found this research valuable:👍'Like' this post. 📰Follow this blog for new market updates.➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

成功遊說反對AI晶片新限制，穩定NVIDIA股價；聯準會升高的降息機率，則為技術面轉強的台股提供支撐背景。Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月4日 美東時間摘要隨著對聯準會十二月降息的信念增強，風險性資產獲支撐，全球市場回穩；然在關鍵政策決議前，交易量萎縮。輝達(NVIDIA)成功遊說反對美國國防法案中的AI晶片新出口限制後，股價反彈超過2%，消除了AI產業的一大隱憂。台股加權指數(TAIEX)面臨量縮但技術面轉強的關鍵時刻，顯示若買盤回籠，可能出現突破。好壞參半的勞動數據——初請領失業金人數下降但裁員人數仍高——使聯準會維持寬鬆路徑，公債殖利率穩定在4.1%附近。在報導指稱川普政府可能發布「機器人行政命令」的驅動下，機器人產業浮現為新題材。市場目前處於一個盤整格局，其特徵為成交量低迷，但對風險性資產的潛在買盤正在增強。主要的驅動力，仍然是聯準會下週降息的幾近確定性，市場定價現已顯示機率達85-90%。此一鴿派背景更受到美國好壞參半的勞動數據所強化：儘管初請領失業金人數下降，但就業市場普遍降溫的趨勢，使聯準會仍處於寬鬆的路徑上。此環境正削弱美元，並為比特幣等對風險敏感的資產提供支撐，比特幣維持在92,000美元以上，而歐元則緩步走高。隨著輝達(NVIDIA)執行長黃仁勳成功遊說，反對將《GAINAIACT》納入年度美國國防法案，科技產業浮現了一個重大的正面催化劑。此舉阻止了對AI晶片新的、具限制性的出口管制，為整個半導體供應鏈移除了重大的尾部風險。輝達隨後的漲勢，為市場情緒帶來關鍵提振。與此同時，一個圍繞機器人技術的新題材驅動力正在浮現，此乃受惠於報導指稱川普政府正準備一項行政命令以加速該產業發展。這點燃了台灣相關個股的漲勢，突顯了市場對美國產業政策的敏感性。對台灣市場而言，儘管近期成交量低迷，但技術面格局仍具建設性。台股加權指數(TAIEX)正在短期移動平均線之上盤整，且動能指標正向，顯示「看漲的市場結構依然完整」。關鍵的缺失要素是成交量；投資者正在場邊觀望，靜待美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)的會議。然而，隨著外部環境因輝達的政策勝利與聯準會的鴿派軌跡而轉為有利，阻力最小的路徑似乎是向上。法人成交量的回歸，可能迅速點燃挑戰新高的火花，特別是在AI、機器人及先進製造等產業。週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢本摘要總結了關鍵貨幣對(以新台幣計價)及主要大宗商品類股(以美元計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。圖表一：貨幣(新台幣計價)美元(貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲歐元(貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲日圓(貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼人民幣(貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲加幣(貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲日圓的趨勢有所改善，從溫和負向轉為中性。這與貨幣市場其他部分所見的穩定性形成對比。美元、人民幣和加幣皆維持其強勁正向的評級。歐元亦持穩於溫和正向的指標。此資訊顯示，日圓已回穩，而其他主要貨幣相對於新台幣則普遍維持強勢。圖表二：大宗商品(美元計價)能源類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼農業類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼工業金屬(代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲貴金屬(代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲數位資產(代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼能源類大宗商品出現顯著轉變，其趨勢指標從強勁負向改善至中性。工業金屬的力道亦見增強，從溫和正向轉為強勁正向。這些改善與農業類大宗商品和數位資產持續的強勁負向趨勢形成對比。貴金屬則維持其強勁正向的評估。此現象指向工業與能源相關原物料的前景正在復甦。📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。如果您覺得這份研究有價值：👍為這篇文章按讚。📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。Dovish Bets Firm as NVIDIA Wins Policy Victory; TAIEX Eyes BreakoutA successful lobbying effort against new AI chip restrictions stabilizes NVIDIA, while rising Fed rate cut odds provide a supportive backdrop for a technically strengthening TAIEX.By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-04Executive SummaryGlobal markets stabilized as stronger conviction in a December Federal Reserve rate cut supported risk assets, though trading volume thinned ahead of key policy decisions.NVIDIA shares rallied over 2% after successfully lobbying against new export restrictions in the U.S. defense bill, removing a major overhang for the AI sector.The TAIEX faces a critical juncture with shrinking volume but strengthening technicals, suggesting a potential breakout if buying pressure returns.Treasury yields stabilized near 4.1% as mixed labor data—lower jobless claims but elevated layoffs—kept the Fed on track for easing.The robotics sector emerged as a new theme, driven by reports of a potential "robotics executive order" from the Trump administration.The market is currently in a holding pattern, characterized by low volume but a strengthening underlying bid for risk assets. The primary driver remains the near-certainty of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, with market pricing now indicating an 85-90% probability. This dovish backdrop is being reinforced by mixed U.S. labor data: while initial jobless claims fell, the broader trend of cooling employment is keeping the Fed on an easing path. This environment is weakening the U.S. dollar and providing support for risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, which is holding above $92,000, and the Euro, which is grinding higher.A significant positive catalyst emerged for the technology sector with news that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang successfully lobbied against the inclusion of the GAIN AI Act in the annual U.S. defense bill. This prevents new, restrictive export controls on AI chips, removing a major tail risk for the entire semiconductor supply chain. NVIDIA's subsequent rally provided a crucial lift to sentiment. Simultaneously, a new thematic driver is emerging around robotics, fueled by reports that the Trump administration is preparing an executive order to accelerate the industry. This sparked a rally in related stocks in Taiwan, highlighting the market's sensitivity to U.S. industrial policy.For the Taiwan market, the technical picture is constructive despite recent low trading volumes. The TAIEX is consolidating above short-term moving averages with positive momentum indicators, suggesting the "bullish market structure remains intact." The key missing ingredient is volume; investors are on the sidelines awaiting the FOMC meeting. However, with the external environment turning supportive—thanks to NVIDIA's policy win and the Fed's dovish trajectory—the path of least resistance appears to be higher. A return of institutional volume could quickly spark a challenge of new highs, particularly in the AI, robotics, and advanced manufacturing sectors.Thursday Asset Focus: Currency & Commodity TrendsThis brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key currency pairs against the TWD and for major commodity sectors in USD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)U.S. Dollar (FX Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲Euro (FX Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲Japanese Yen (FX Pair: JPYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: ▼Chinese Yuan (FX Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲Canadian Dollar (FX Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲The trend for the Japanese Yen improved, shifting from mildly negative to neutral. This stands in contrast to the stability seen elsewhere in the currency complex. The U.S. Dollar, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all maintained their strongly positive ratings. The Euro also held steady with a mildly positive indicator. This information suggests a stabilization for the Yen while broad strength persists for other major currencies against the TWD.Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼A significant shift occurred in Energy Commodities, where the trend indicator improved from strongly negative to neutral. Strength also built in Industrial Metals, which moved from mildly to strongly positive. These improvements contrast with the persistent strongly negative trends in Agricultural Commodities and Digital Assets. Precious Metals maintained their strongly positive assessment. This points to a recovering outlook for industrial and energy inputs.📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.if you found this research valuable:👍'Like' this post.📰Follow this blog for new market updates.➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

民間就業人數意外下滑，鞏固十二月寬鬆押注。Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月3日 美東時間摘要出乎意料疲弱的勞動市場數據，將聯準會十二月降息的隱含機率推升至近90%，美股應聲上漲。在有利的技術面格局與歷史上十二月強勁表現的傾向支撐下，台股加權指數(TAIEX)有望進一步上漲。市場消化ADP報告顯示民間就業人數萎縮的消息，強化了立即實施貨幣寬鬆的理由，公債殖利率應聲下跌。ADP全國就業報告揭露十一月份就業人數意外減少32,000人，成為重燃風險偏好情緒的主要催化劑。比特幣反彈至93,000美元以上，預示在殖利率走低與正面的監管訊號驅動下，投機偏好正在回歸。一份出乎意料疲弱的ADP就業報告——顯示十一月份民間部門就業人數減少32,000人，與預期的增加形成對比——已將市場論述從「他們會降息嗎？」轉變為「他們必須降息」。在政府關門造成的數據真空中，此一勞動市場的惡化，已迫使市場反映聯準會下週寬鬆政策的機率近90%。市場的反應是一場典型的「壞消息即是好消息」的漲勢：隨著流動性的水龍頭看似即將重啟，公債殖利率下跌、美元走軟，股市則上揚。此一鴿派轉向，正為全球風險性資產提供強勁的順風。在美國，金融與能源等週期性類股領漲，而小型股則飆升超過1%，預示市場參與度正在擴大。比特幣反彈回93,000美元以上，進一步確認了在近期的清算事件後，風險偏好正在復甦。對台灣市場而言，格局日益看漲。隨著外部宏觀環境轉為有利，且台股加權指數(TAIEX)展現有利的技術偏向，挑戰新高的舞台已然搭好。法人投資者在十二月強勁的「作帳行情」歷史傾向，與此波重燃的全球樂觀情緒完美契合。週三資產焦點：美國經濟與債券趨勢本摘要總結了美國關鍵經濟指標和美國公債ETF為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。圖表一：美國宏觀經濟投資存續期間: 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲企業獲利: 當前: --, 一週前: ▼通貨膨脹: 當前: --, 一週前: --貨幣流量(流入美元): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --消費者信心: 當前: ▲, 一週前: --過去一週，美國國內關鍵領域浮現正面動能。消費者信心的趨勢從中性改善至溫和正向，而企業獲利的指標則回穩，從溫和負向轉為中性。這些改善與貨幣流量(流入美元)指標形成對比，後者從中性轉弱為溫和負向。投資存續期間和通貨膨脹的評估則維持不變，顯示經濟背景好壞參半但普遍趨於穩固。圖表二：美國公債(美元計價)1-3年期美國公債(代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲3-7年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲7-10年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲10-20年期美國公債(代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲20年期以上美國公債(代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --美國公債殖利率曲線的趨勢評估出現清晰的對比。中期券種(3-7年期和7-10年期)維持其強勁正向的評級，突顯了殖利率曲線中段的持續強勢。然而，長天期部分則顯著轉弱；10-20年期指標從溫和正向反轉為溫和負向，而20年期以上趨勢則從中性下滑至溫和負向。短天期公債亦見趨緩，轉為中性評估。📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。如果您覺得這份研究有價值：👍為這篇文章按讚。📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。Markets Rally as Fed Rate Cut Becomes Near Certainty With Weak Jobs DataA surprise decline in private payrolls cements bets on December easing.By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-03Executive SummaryU.S. equities rallied as unexpectedly weak labor market data pushed the implied probability of a December Federal Reserve rate cut near 90%.The TAIEX is poised for further gains, supported by a favorable technical setup and the historical tendency for a strong December performance.Treasury yields fell as the market digested the ADP report showing a contraction in private payrolls, reinforcing the case for immediate monetary easing.The ADP National Employment Report revealed a surprise loss of 32,000 jobs in November, serving as the primary catalyst for the renewed risk-on sentiment.Bitcoin rebounded above $93,000, signaling a return of speculative appetite driven by lower yields and positive regulatory signals.A surprisingly weak ADP employment report, which showed the private sector shedding 32,000 jobs in November against expectations of a gain, has shifted the narrative from "will they?" to "they must." This deterioration in the labor market, occurring amidst a data vacuum caused by the government shutdown, has forced the market to price in a nearly 90% probability of Federal Reserve easing next week. The reaction was a classic "bad news is good news" rally: Treasury yields fell, the dollar softened, and equities advanced as the liquidity spigot appeared set to reopen.This dovish pivot is providing a powerful tailwind for risk assets globally. In the U.S., cyclical sectors like financials and energy led the advance, while small-caps surged over 1%, signaling broadening market participation. Bitcoin's bounce back above $93,000 further confirms that risk appetite is recovering after the recent liquidation event. For the Taiwan market, the setup is increasingly bullish. With the external macro environment turning supportive and the TAIEX exhibiting a favorable technical bias, the stage is set for a run at new highs. The historical tendency for a strong December "window dressing" rally by institutional investors aligns perfectly with this renewed global optimism.Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic & Bond TrendsThis brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key U.S. economic indicators and U.S. Treasury bond ETFs. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic IndicatorsInvestment Duration: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲Corporate Earnings: Current: --, Last Week: ▼Inflation: Current: --, Last Week: --Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼, Last Week: --Consumer Strength: Current: ▲, Last Week: --Positive momentum developed in key domestic areas over the past week. The trend for Consumer Strength improved from neutral to mildly positive, while the indicator for Corporate Earnings stabilized, moving from mildly negative to neutral. These improvements contrast with the Currency Flow (into USD) indicator, which weakened from neutral to mildly negative. Investment Duration and Inflation assessments remained unchanged, suggesting a mixed but generally firming economic backdrop.Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: --, Last Week: ▲3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▼, Last Week: --A clear contrast in trend assessments emerged across the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Intermediate maturities (3-7 Year and 7-10 Year) maintained their strongly positive ratings, highlighting persistent strength in the belly of the curve. However, the long end weakened significantly; the 10-20 Year indicator reversed from mildly positive to mildly negative, and the 20+ Year trend dipped from neutral to mildly negative. Short-term bonds also softened, moving to a neutral assessment.📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.if you found this research valuable:👍'Like' this post.📰Follow this blog for new market updates.➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

疲弱的美國製造業數據鞏固聯準會降息押注，助燃科技股復甦；然攀升的公債殖利率，為台灣市場創造了波動的背景。Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月2日 美東時間摘要疲弱的製造業數據強化了聯準會十二月降息的預期，美股反彈，提振了科技與工業類股。市場反映聯準會寬鬆政策的機率達83%，公債殖利率穩定在4.1%附近；然日本公債殖利率上揚，持續構成跨境壓力。亞馬遜AWS與Google Cloud的新雲端合作夥伴關係，為AI伺服器個股提供了特定催化劑，抵銷了鴻海大股東賣股的負面情緒。比特幣回彈至91,000美元以上，預示著在本週稍早的猛烈清算事件後，風險偏好可能回穩。疲弱的製造業數據成為一個弔詭的「壞消息即是好消息」的催化劑，鞏固了聯準會於十二月降息的理由，並點燃了科技股與工業股的反彈。此一釋壓性漲勢，更受到特定企業消息的支撐，包括亞馬遜AWS與Google Cloud之間一項里程碑式的合作夥伴關係，此消息重新點燃了市場對AI伺服器供應鏈的興趣。與此同時，比特幣回升至91,000美元以上，顯示近期加密貨幣清算的劇烈階段可能正在過去，從而穩定更廣泛的風險情緒。然而，台灣市場的圖像則更為不穩。儘管全球背景正向，台股加權指數(TAIEX)於週一不敵尾盤賣壓，收在當日最低點，並跌破5日與月移動平均線。此一技術性跌破由台積電(TSMC)所引領，儘管其基本面前景強勁，但仍面臨新的賣壓。為本地市場增添逆風的是，郭台銘長女拋售鴻海(Hon Hai)持股的消息，此舉立即對市場情緒造成拖累，蓋過了該公司看漲的AI伺服器前景。美國市場的反彈與台灣市場的技術性疲弱之間的分歧，為今日盤勢設定了一個關鍵的格局。台股加權指數(TAIEX)目前正在一個量縮的盤整階段交易，以「以時間換取空間」的方式消化近期的漲幅。該指數若要重新站穩腳步並挑戰新高，需要看到三個清晰的訊號：成交量持續維持在新台幣5,000億元以上、大型科技龍頭股回穩，以及比特幣等投機性資產持續復甦。週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣個股趨勢本摘要總結了關鍵亞洲股價指數(以美元計價)及台灣領先大型股(以新台幣計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。圖表一：區域股價指數(美元計價)台灣(代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --香港(代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲新加坡(代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: --, 一週前: --日本(代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲南韓(代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲過去一週，亞洲主要股市的趨勢評估大致穩定，但有一個顯著的改善。台灣的指標從中性轉強為溫和正向，使其與香港、日本和南韓的趨勢一致，後三者皆維持其溫和正向的趨勢。新加坡則仍是例外，守住其中性的評估。此數據指向區域內大多數指數的前景普遍具建設性但溫和。圖表二：台灣前五大企業(新台幣計價)台灣積體電路製造(Ticker: 2330): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲鴻海精密工業(Ticker: 2317): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼台達電子工業(Ticker: 2308): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲聯發科技(Ticker: 2454): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼廣達電腦(Ticker: 2382): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼台灣科技龍頭股的趨勢出現顯著改善。聯發科與廣達電腦的指標，皆從強勁負向轉為中性，顯示下行壓力可能正在減緩。與此同時，台積電和台達電維持其溫和正向的趨勢，而鴻海精密則守住其溫和負向的評估。此資訊突顯了先前表現顯著疲弱的特定公司，其市場情緒已有所復甦。📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。如果您覺得這份研究有價值：👍為這篇文章按讚。📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。Tech and Industrials Lead Rebound Amid Global HeadwindsWeak U.S. manufacturing data cements Fed rate cut bets, fueling a tech recovery; however, rising bond yields create a volatile backdrop for Taiwan.By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-02Executive SummaryU.S. equities rebounded as weak manufacturing data reinforced expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, lifting technology and industrial stocks.Treasury yields stabilized near 4.1% as the market priced in an 83% probability of Fed easing, though rising Japanese yields continue to exert cross-border pressure.A new cloud partnership between Amazon AWS and Google Cloud provided a specific catalyst for AI server stocks, countering negative sentiment from a sale of Hon Hai shares by a major shareholder.Bitcoin snapped back above $91,000, signaling a potential stabilization in risk appetite after a severe liquidation event earlier in the week.Weak manufacturing data served as a paradoxical "bad news is good news" catalyst, cementing the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and sparking a rebound in tech and industrial shares. This relief rally was further supported by specific corporate news, including a landmark partnership between Amazon AWS and Google Cloud, which reignited interest in the AI server supply chain. Simultaneously, Bitcoin's recovery above $91,000 suggests that the acute phase of the recent crypto liquidation may be passing, stabilizing broader risk sentiment.However, the picture for the Taiwan market is more precarious. Despite the positive global backdrop, the TAIEX succumbed to late-session selling pressure on Monday, closing at its daily low and breaking below both the 5-day and monthly moving averages. This technical breakdown was led by TSMC, which faced renewed selling despite its strong fundamental outlook. Adding to the local headwinds, news that a major shareholder associated with Terry Gou is selling a block of Hon Hai shares created an immediate sentiment drag, overshadowing the company's bullish AI server forecast.The divergence between the U.S. rebound and Taiwan's technical weakness sets up a critical session. The TAIEX is currently trading in a volume-light consolidation phase, "trading time for space" as it digests recent gains. For the index to regain its footing and challenge new highs, it needs to see three clear signals: sustained trading volume above NT$500 billion, stabilization in large-cap tech leaders, and a continued recovery in speculative assets like Bitcoin.Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock TrendsThis brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key Asian equity indices in USD terms and for Taiwan's leading large-cap companies in TWD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲, Last Week: --Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: --, Last Week: --Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲The trend assessments for major Asian equity markets were largely stable over the past week, with one notable improvement. The indicator for Taiwan strengthened from neutral to mildly positive, bringing it in line with Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea, which all maintained their mildly positive trends. Singapore remained the outlier, holding its neutral assessment. This data points to a generally constructive but moderate outlook across the majority of the region's indices.Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲Hon Hai Precision Industry Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲Mediatek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼Significant trend improvements occurred among Taiwan's technology leaders. Both MediaTek and Quanta Computer saw their indicators shift from strongly negative to neutral, suggesting a potential easing of downward pressure. Meanwhile, Taiwan Semiconductor and Delta Electronics maintained their mildly positive trends, and Hon Hai Precision held its mildly negative assessment. This information highlights a recovery in sentiment for specific companies that had previously shown significant weakness.📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.if you found this research valuable:👍'Like' this post.📰Follow this blog for new market updates.➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

加密貨幣清算與全球增長疑慮，引發感恩節後漲勢回檔。Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月1日 美東時間摘要全球市場十二月開局疲弱，美股指數下滑、比特幣暴跌，風險規避情緒再起，與台灣看漲的經濟預測形成對比。加密貨幣急遽拋售及疲弱的製造業數據，打擊市場情緒，美股回檔；台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)下跌1.31%，對台股構成逆風。儘管市場預期聯準會將降息，但在日本央行升息訊號引發的全球債市拋售下，公債殖利率上揚。台灣2025年GDP增長預測上修至7.37%的15年新高，為本地市場提供了強大的基本面支撐。比特幣暴跌6%，成為當日避險操作的主要催化劑，主因為強制平倉及對日圓利差交易平倉的擔憂。在挑戰投資者信心的全球逆風匯集下，今年的最後一個月以更偏「避險」的基調開場。主要的催化劑是加密貨幣市場的急遽清算，比特幣暴跌約6%，跌破關鍵支撐水平。此波崩跌由強制拋售以及對日本央行升息將引發利差交易平倉的擔憂所助燃，其效應外溢至更廣泛的市場，拖累了加密貨幣相關股票並普遍打擊了市場情緒。在美國，此一負面背景更受到疲弱的製造業數據所加劇，儘管標普500指數創下七個月連漲，但仍導致該指數與那斯達克指數開局走低。此一黯淡的全球景象，為正享受本地樂觀情緒復甦的台灣市場，創造了一個複雜的格局。台灣行政院主計總處已將其2025年GDP增長預測，大幅上修至7.37%的15年新高，預示著強勁的經濟健全狀況。此一強勁的基本面，加上台股加權指數(TAIEX)歷史上傾向於在十二月上漲的趨勢，以及聯準會量化緊縮計畫的結束，皆支持了看漲的年終展望。然而，當前的外部環境充滿挑戰；美國科技股與台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的隔夜跌勢，為今日開盤帶來了直接的逆風。強勁的本地基本面與疲弱的全球情緒之間的分歧，是需要關注的關鍵動態。由日本公債拋售所驅動的美國公債殖利率上揚，若加速，將對股票估值構成風險。投資者應看透由加密貨幣洗盤所引發的短期波動，並專注於台灣AI與能源產業的結構性優勢，這兩者仍然是市場最持久的增長引擎。週一資產焦點：美國股市與個股趨勢本摘要總結了美國主要股價指數及領先企業為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。圖表一：美國股價指數(美元計價)道瓊工業平均指數(代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --標普500指數(代表性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲那斯達克綜合指數(代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲羅素2000指數(代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼費城半導體指數(代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲過去一週，美國股價指數的趨勢指標顯現改善跡象。道瓊工業平均指數從中性轉強為溫和正向，與標普500指數、那斯達克綜合指數及費城半導體指數的趨勢一致，後三者皆維持其溫和正向的評級。此外，羅素2000指數的趨勢亦有所改善，從溫和負向轉為中性。此資訊顯示，小型股的評估已回穩，而更廣泛的市場則呈現持續的正向趨勢。圖表二：美國前五大企業(美元計價)輝達(NVIDIA Corp, NVDA): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼蘋果(Apple Inc, AAPL): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲微軟(Microsoft Corp, MSFT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc, AMZN): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼博通(Broadcom Inc, AVGO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲數家美國頂尖企業的趨勢評估出現轉變，其特徵為負向評級的減少。輝達(NVIDIA)和亞馬遜(Amazon)的指標，皆從溫和負向改善至中性。與此同時，蘋果(Apple)和博通(Broadcom)則維持其強勁正向的趨勢，持續在該群體中展現相對強勢。微軟(Microsoft)則仍是例外，守住其溫和負向的趨勢指標。此數據指向先前表現疲弱的關鍵科技龍頭，其前景正趨於穩固。📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。如果您覺得這份研究有價值：👍為這篇文章按讚。📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。Global Markets Pull Back as Bitcoin Continues Its PlungeCrypto liquidations and global growth concerns trigger a pull back after a Thanksgiving rally.By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-01Executive SummaryGlobal markets began December on a weaker note, with U.S. indices slipping and Bitcoin plunging amid renewed risk aversion, contrasting with a bullish economic forecast for Taiwan.U.S. equities retreated as a sharp sell-off in crypto and weak manufacturing data dampened sentiment, while the TAIEX faces headwinds from a 1.31% drop in TSMC's ADR.Treasury yields rose despite expectations for a Fed rate cut, driven by a global bond sell-off sparked by Bank of Japan rate hike signals.Taiwan's 2025 GDP growth forecast was revised upward to a 15-year high of 7.37%, providing a powerful fundamental anchor for the local market.Bitcoin's 6% plunge served as the primary catalyst for the day's risk-off move, triggered by forced liquidations and fears of unwinding yen-funded carry trades.The final month of the year has kicked off with more of a "risk-off" tone, driven by a confluence of global headwinds that are challenging investor confidence. The primary catalyst was a sharp liquidation in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin plunging roughly 6% to break below key support levels. This collapse, fueled by forced selling and fears of a Bank of Japan rate hike unwinding carry trades, spilled over into broader markets, dragging down crypto-linked stocks and dampening sentiment across the board. In the U.S., this negative backdrop was compounded by weak manufacturing data, leading to a soft start for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq despite the S&P's seven-month winning streak.This gloomy global picture creates a complex setup for the Taiwan market, which is currently enjoying a resurgence of local optimism. Taiwan's Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics has dramatically revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 7.37%, a 15-year high, signaling robust economic health. This strength, combined with the historical tendency for the TAIEX to rally in December and the end of the Fed's quantitative tightening program, supports a bullish year-end outlook. However, the immediate external environment is challenging; the overnight drop in U.S. tech stocks and TSMC's ADR presents a direct headwind for today's opening.The divergence between strong local fundamentals and weak global sentiment is the key dynamic to watch. The rise in the U.S. Treasury yields, driven by the sell-off in Japanese bonds, poses a risk to equity valuations if it accelerates. Investors should look through the short-term volatility caused by the crypto wash-out and focus on the structural strengths of Taiwan's AI and energy sectors, which remain the market's most durable engines of growth.Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity & Company TrendsThis brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for major U.S. equity indices and leading U.S. companies. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲, Last Week: --S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: --, Last Week: ▼PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲The trend indicators for U.S. equity indices showed signs of improvement over the past week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened from neutral to mildly positive, aligning it with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and PHLX Semiconductor indices, which all maintained their mildly positive ratings. Additionally, the trend for the Russell 2000 Index improved, shifting from mildly negative to neutral. This information suggests a stabilization in the assessment for small-cap stocks alongside persistent positive trends in the broader market.Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: --, Last Week: ▼Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: --, Last Week: ▼Broadcom Inc (Ticker: AVGO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲A shift in trend assessments occurred among several top U.S. companies, characterized by a reduction in negative ratings. Both NVIDIA and Amazon saw their indicators improve from mildly negative to neutral. Meanwhile, Apple and Broadcom maintained their strongly positive trends, continuing to show relative strength within the group. Microsoft remained the outlier, holding its mildly negative trend indicator. This data points to a firming of the outlook for key technology names that had previously shown weakness.📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.if you found this research valuable:👍'Like' this post.📰Follow this blog for new market updates.➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

疲弱的消費數據與鴿派聯準會主席的預期，助燃市場強勁反彈；台股有望收復關鍵水平。Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月26日 美東時間摘要在聯準會十二月降息預期升溫的驅動下，美股在感恩節假期前擴大漲勢。科技股領漲族群顯著擴散至輝達(Nvidia)以外，Alphabet創下歷史新高，戴爾(Dell)亦因強勁的AI需求而上漲，預示著更健康的市場結構。在報導指稱鴿派候選人有望成為下屆聯準會主席的助燃下，市場已反映十二月降息機率超過80%，公債殖利率應聲跌破4.0%。美國消費者信心跌至數月低點，強化了貨幣寬鬆的必要性，而提振了股市。比特幣急遽反彈至90,000美元以上，打破了負面的季節性趨勢，預示著跨資產類別的風險偏好回歸。美國指數在感恩節前連續第四日擴大漲勢，標普500指數與那斯達克指數上漲近1%。主要催化劑是市場對聯準會將於十二月降息的信念日益增強，此一看法更受疲弱的消費數據，以及報導指稱對商界友好的凱文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)是聯準會主席的熱門人選所強化。此一背景將十年期公債殖利率推低至4.0%以下，為風險性資產提供了強勁的順風。關鍵的是，科技股漲勢的性格正在演變。投資者不再僅僅依賴輝達(NVIDIA)；相反地，資本正輪動至更廣泛的AI受惠者，如Alphabet、戴爾(Dell)和博通(Broadcom)。此一更廣泛的參與度，是漲勢更為健康、更具持久性的跡象。這直接使多元化的台灣供應鏈受惠，範圍已超越純粹的GPU製造，擴及其他公司。比特幣同步反彈至90,000美元以上，以及VIX指數降至18-19的水平，確認了恐懼情緒正在消退，且風險偏好正全面回歸。對台灣市場而言，此一格局提供了明確的復甦路徑。台股加權指數(TAIEX)已在季線附近回穩，隨著技術指標轉為正向，該指數有望挑戰27,000點的關卡。政府確認對先進IC設計的補貼承諾，以及Google以其TPU v7積極推進高效能AI的發展，皆提供了強勁的長期基本面支撐。對投資者而言，當前的策略應是利用此波回檔，在更廣泛的AI生態系中——特別是矽智財(IP)和先進封裝領域——分批佈局，因為市場正從一個狹隘的、以輝達為中心的交易，轉向一個更全面的增長故事。週三資產焦點：美國經濟與債券趨勢本摘要總結了美國關鍵經濟指標和美國公債ETF為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。圖表一：美國宏觀經濟投資存續期間: 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼企業獲利: 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼通貨膨脹: 當前: --, 一週前: --貨幣流量(流入美元): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼消費者信心: 當前: --, 一週前: --過去一週，美國特定經濟指標觀察到明顯的改善。投資存續期間的趨勢出現反轉，從溫和負向轉為溫和正向。此外，貨幣流量(流入美元)的指標亦回穩，從溫和負向轉為中性。這些改善發生之際，其他領域則呈現穩定；消費者信心和通貨膨脹維持中性，而企業獲利則守住溫和負向的評估。圖表二：美國公債(美元計價)1-3年期美國公債(代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --3-7年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: --7-10年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: --10-20年期美國公債(代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --20年期以上美國公債(代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼美國公債市場的趨勢出現基礎廣泛的轉強。殖利率曲線的中段動能最為顯著，3-7年期和7-10年期公債的指標皆從中性躍升至強勁正向。短天期(1-3年期)和10-20年期券種亦見改善，從中性轉為溫和正向。此外，20年期以上券種亦回穩，從溫和負向轉為中性。此數據顯示，市場對整體殖利率曲線的評估已出現同步的正向轉變。📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。如果您覺得這份研究有價值：👍為這篇文章按讚。📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。Fed Rate Cut Bets Spark Pre-Thanksgiving RallySofter consumer data and hopes for a dovish Fed chair fuel a robust market rebound, with the TAIEX poised to reclaim key levels.By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-26Executive SummaryU.S. equities extended their rally into the Thanksgiving holiday, driven by firming expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.Technology leadership broadened significantly beyond Nvidia, with Alphabet reaching record highs and Dell advancing on strong AI demand, signaling a healthier market structure.Treasury yields fell below 4.0% as the market priced in an 80%+ probability of a December rate cut, fueled by reports that a dovish candidate is favored for the next Fed Chair.U.S. consumer confidence dropped to multi-month lows, paradoxically boosting stocks by reinforcing the case for monetary easing.Bitcoin rebounded sharply above $90,000, breaking a negative seasonal trend and signaling a return of risk appetite across asset classes.U.S. indices extended their pre-Thanksgiving rally for a fourth consecutive day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq adding nearly 1%. The primary catalyst was a growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, a view reinforced by soft consumer data and reports that the business-friendly Kevin Hassett is a leading candidate for Fed Chair. This backdrop sent the 10-year Treasury yield below 4.0%, providing a potent tailwind for risk assets.Crucially, the character of the tech rally is evolving. Investors are no longer solely dependent on NVIDIA; instead, capital is rotating into a wider array of AI beneficiaries like Alphabet, Dell, and Broadcom. This broadening participation is a sign of a healthier, more durable advance. It directly benefits the diverse Taiwan supply chain, moving beyond just GPU manufacturing to include other companies. The simultaneous rebound in Bitcoin above $90,000 and the drop in the VIX to the high teens confirm that fear is receding and risk appetite is returning across the board.For the Taiwan market, this setup offers a clear path to recovery. The TAIEX has stabilized near its quarterly moving average, and with technical indicators turning positive, the index is poised to challenge the 27,000-point level. The government's confirmed commitment to subsidizing advanced IC design and Google's aggressive push into efficient AI with its TPU v7 provide strong, long-term fundamental support. The immediate strategy for investors should be to use this pullback to accumulate positions in the broader AI ecosystem—specifically in IP and advanced packaging—as the market shifts from a narrow, Nvidia-centric trade to a more comprehensive growth story.Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic & Bond TrendsThis brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key U.S. economic indicators and U.S. Treasury bond ETFs. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic IndicatorsInvestment Duration: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼Corporate Earnings: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼Inflation: Current: --, Last Week: --Currency Flow (into USD): Current: --, Last Week: ▼Consumer Strength: Current: --, Last Week: --A distinct improvement was observed in select U.S. economic indicators over the past week. The trend for Investment Duration reversed, shifting from mildly negative to mildly positive. Additionally, the indicator for Currency Flow (into USD) stabilized, moving from mildly negative to neutral. These improvements stand against a backdrop of stability elsewhere; Consumer Strength and Inflation remained neutral, while Corporate Earnings maintained a mildly negative assessment.Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: ▲, Last Week: --3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: --10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▲, Last Week: --20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: --, Last Week: ▼A broad-based strengthening of trends occurred across the U.S. Treasury market. The intermediate portion of the curve saw the most significant momentum, with the indicators for 3-7 Year and 7-10 Year Treasuries jumping from neutral to strongly positive. The short end (1-3 Year) and the 10-20 Year segment also improved, moving from neutral to mildly positive. Furthermore, the 20+ Year segment stabilized, shifting from mildly negative to neutral. This data indicates a coordinated positive shift in assessment across the entire yield curve.📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.if you found this research valuable:👍'Like' this post.📰Follow this blog for new market updates.➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

烏俄協議進展與升高的降息押注，提振大盤走勢；儘管輝達(NVIDIA)因Google與Meta的競爭威脅而下滑。Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年11月25日 美東時間摘要潛在的烏俄和平框架與鴿派的美國經濟數據，助燃了廣泛的風險偏好情緒，全球股市上漲。大型科技股內部出現重大輪動：Alphabet與博通(Broadcom)因AI合作消息而飆漲，而輝達(NVIDIA)則因傳出Meta正探索採用Google晶片而下跌。延後公布的通膨數據鞏固了市場對聯準會十二月降息的預期，公債殖利率應聲下跌至接近4.0%的年度低點。傳聞中由美國支持的烏克蘭和平框架，雖對油價構成壓力，使其跌至年度低點，卻因降低地緣政治風險而提振了整體市場情緒。黃金觸及歷史新高，與比特幣等投機性資產持續其強勁的分歧走勢；儘管大盤反彈，比特幣依然低迷。在鴿派經濟數據與地緣政治緊張局勢潛在降溫的共同推動下，一個有利的「軟著陸」情境正具體化，市場正在復甦。美國股市於週二擴大漲幅，由醫療保健與非必需消費品類股領漲。主要的催化劑是延後公布的通膨與零售銷售報告，儘管數據好壞參半，但市場解讀為支持聯準會於十二月降息。市場現已反映下個月寬鬆政策的機率高達83%，此一信念將十年期公債殖利率推低至4.0%，追平了今年的最低水平。然而，單一的AI漲勢正顯現分歧的跡象。科技產業內部出現顯著的兩極分化：Alphabet與博通(Broadcom)在報導指稱Meta正考慮採用Google的AI晶片後急遽上漲，此舉對輝達(NVIDIA)構成直接的競爭威脅。因此，輝達股價連續第二天回檔，此訊號顯示投資者正開始在AI生態系中挑選贏家與輸家，而非不分青紅皂白地買進整個產業。此一具選擇性的環境，更因原油價格在報導指稱美方支持烏俄和平框架、可能解鎖俄羅斯供應的消息驅動下，急遽下跌至年度低點而變得更為複雜。此一轉變中的格局，為台灣市場提供了一個具建設性但波動的設定。台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的飆漲與美國大盤的漲勢，為台股加權指數(TAIEX)收復27,000點關卡提供了立即性的支撐。圍繞蘋果(Apple)「無摺痕」可摺疊iPhone及其獨家生產夥伴鴻海(Hon Hai)的正面消息流，進一步強化了本地的基本面故事。然而，台股加權指數(TAIEX)在技術面上仍處於季線附近的盤整階段。對國內投資者而言，關鍵將是該指數能否守住週一的低點，並消化沉重的外資賣壓。當前環境有利於回歸基本面，在近期的波動中，矽智財(IP)、光通訊及特定蘋果供應鏈的受惠者正浮現機會。週二資產焦點：亞洲指數與台灣個股趨勢本摘要總結了關鍵亞洲股價指數(以美元計價)及台灣領先大型股(以新台幣計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。圖表一：亞洲股價指數(美元計價)台灣(代表性ETF: EWT): 當前: --, 一週前: --香港(代表性ETF: EWH): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲▲新加坡(代表性ETF: EWS): 當前: --, 一週前: --日本(代表性ETF: EWJ): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --南韓(代表性ETF: EWY): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲亞洲股市浮現多樣的趨勢變化格局。日本的趨勢指標轉強，從中性轉為溫和正向。相反地，香港的評估則見緩和，從強勁正向轉為溫和正向。台灣和新加坡的趨勢則維持中性，而南韓則守住其溫和正向的評級。此數據突顯了區域內主要指數之間不同的動能樣貌。圖表二：台灣前五大企業(新台幣計價)台灣積體電路製造(Ticker: 2330): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲鴻海精密工業(Ticker: 2317): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --台達電子工業(Ticker: 2308): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲聯發科技(Ticker: 2454): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼廣達電腦(Ticker: 2382): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼台灣龍頭企業的趨勢評估顯示出特定領域的疲弱。鴻海精密的指標從中性轉為溫和負向。這使其與聯發科和廣達電腦的趨勢更為一致，後兩者皆維持其強勁負向的趨勢評級。相較之下，台積電和台達電則持穩於溫和正向的趨勢。此資訊顯示，這些不同科技龍頭群體之間的表現出現清晰分歧。📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。如果您覺得這份研究有價值：👍為這篇文章按讚。📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。Markets Rally on Peace Talks and Dovish Data, But AI Leadership FragmentsProgress on a Ukraine-Russia deal and rising rate cut bets lift the broader market, even as NVIDIA slips on competitive threats from Google and Meta.By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-11-25Executive SummaryGlobal equities advanced as a potential Ukraine-Russia peace framework and dovish U.S. economic data fueled broad risk-on sentiment.A major rotation emerged within big tech: Alphabet and Broadcom surged on AI partnership news, while NVIDIA fell as Meta reportedly explored using Google's chips.Treasury yields dropped to year-to-date lows near 4.0% as delayed inflation data cemented expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.A reported U.S.-backed peace framework for Ukraine pressured oil prices to annual lows but boosted overall market sentiment by reducing geopolitical risk.Gold reached new record highs, continuing its powerful divergence from speculative assets like Bitcoin, which remains subdued despite the broader rally.The market is recovering as a favorable "soft landing" scenario is materializing, driven by a convergence of dovish economic data and a potential de-escalation in geopolitical tensions. U.S. equities extended their gains on Tuesday, with healthcare and consumer discretionary stocks leading the advance. The primary catalysts were delayed inflation and retail sales reports which, while mixed, were interpreted as supportive of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The market has now priced in an 83% probability of easing next month, a conviction that drove the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.0%, matching its lowest level of the year.However, the monolithic AI rally is showing signs of fragmentation. A significant divergence emerged within the technology sector: Alphabet and Broadcom rallied sharply on reports that Meta is considering using Google's AI chips, a direct competitive threat to NVIDIA. Consequently, NVIDIA shares retreated for a second day, signaling that investors are beginning to pick winners and losers within the AI ecosystem rather than buying the sector indiscriminately. This selective environment was further complicated by a sharp drop in crude oil prices to yearly lows, driven by reports of a U.S.-backed peace framework between Ukraine and Russia, which could unlock Russian supply.This shifting landscape provides a constructive but volatile setup for the Taiwan market. A surge in TSMC's ADR and the broad U.S. rally offer immediate support for the TAIEX to reclaim the 27,000-point level. The positive news flow around Apple's "crease-free" foldable iPhone and Hon Hai's exclusive production role further strengthens the local fundamental story. However, the TAIEX remains in a technical consolidation phase near its quarterly moving average. The key for domestic investors will be whether the index can hold above Monday's lows and digest the heavy foreign selling pressure. The environment favors a return to fundamentals, with opportunities in IP, optical communications, and specific Apple supply chain beneficiaries emerging from the recent volatility.Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock TrendsThis brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key Asian equity indices in USD terms and for Taiwan's leading large-cap companies in TWD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: --, Last Week: --Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲Singapore (Proxy ETF: EWS): Current: --, Last Week: --Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲, Last Week: --South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲A varied set of trend changes emerged across Asian equity markets. The trend indicator for Japan strengthened, moving from neutral to mildly positive. Conversely, the assessment for Hong Kong moderated, shifting from strongly positive to mildly positive. The trends for Taiwan and Singapore remained neutral, while South Korea maintained its mildly positive rating. This data highlights differing momentum profiles across the region's major indices.Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturng Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▼, Last Week: --Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼Trend assessments for Taiwan's leading companies showed specific areas of weakness. Hon Hai Precision’s indicator shifted from neutral to mildly negative. This aligns it closer to MediaTek and Quanta Computer, both of which maintained their strongly negative trend ratings. In contrast, Taiwan Semiconductor and Delta Electronics held steady with mildly positive trends. This information suggests a clear split in performance between these distinct groups of technology leaders.📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.if you found this research valuable:👍'Like' this post.📰Follow this blog for new market updates.➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。