【Joe’s華爾街脈動】強勁就業報告緩解衰退擔憂，股市大漲；科技業財報浮現關稅衝擊

就業數據提振市場反彈，科技業財報顯示關稅效應，聯準會政策受矚

Joe Lu, CFA 2025年5月2日 美東時間

市場概況

美國股市週五以強勁漲勢結束本週交易，投資者對四月份亮眼的就業報告感到振奮，該報告顯著緩解了對經濟即將陷入衰退的擔憂。強勁的勞動市場數據與本週稍早公布的第一季GDP負成長形成鮮明對比，並蓋過了對貿易政策和企業財報訊號不一的持續擔憂。美國勞工統計局報告稱，四月份非農就業人數增加17.7萬人，遠高於道瓊社預估的13.3萬人，儘管還是略低於經修正後的三月份數據。更重要的是，失業率穩定維持在符合預期的4.2%，顯示出勞動市場的持續穩定性。此數據表明，在近期關稅措施的全面影響顯現之前，美國經濟具有潛在的韌性。

正向的就業數據引發主要指數全面反彈。標普500指數大漲+1.47%，連續第九個交易日上漲——創下自2004年11月以來最長的連漲紀錄——並完全收復自4月2日川普總統宣布「解放日」關稅以來的跌幅。道瓊工業平均指數躍升+1.39%（超過560點），而以科技股為主的那斯達克綜合指數上漲+1.51%。以羅素2000指數為代表的小型股也積極跟漲+2.25%。

儘管就業報告帶來了短暫的喘息，但數據中的細節以及持續的企業評論讓市場上其他關注焦點依舊活躍。薪資漲幅略有放緩，平均時薪月增僅0.2%，年增3.8%（為2024年中期以來最低年增率），這或許有助於緩和美國聯準會對通膨的擔憂。然而，財報（特別是來自科技巨頭的財報）仍明確反映出關稅的實際衝擊。蘋果 (-3.74%)在透露本季預估將因關稅損失9億美元並提及將考慮轉移生產後，股價下跌。亞馬遜 (-0.40%) 在發布保守財測後亦下滑，其將關稅和經濟衰退擔憂列為原因，儘管其廣告收入增長強勁。勞動市場的韌性與關稅對企業前景壓力的落差凸顯了當前複雜的投資局勢，而市場也正試圖應對七月份為期90天的關稅暫緩期結束後的影響。

重點摘要

• 主要美股指數週五大漲，受惠於優於預期的四月份就業報告，緩解了對經濟衰退的擔憂：標普500指數 (+1.47%)，道瓊工業平均指數 (+1.39%)，那斯達克綜合指數 (+1.51%)。
• 標普500指數創下2004年以來最長的連續9日上漲紀錄，完全收復「解放日」關稅宣布後的失地，儘管潛在分析仍顯示需保持謹慎。
• 四月份非農就業人數增加17.7萬人（預估為13.3萬人），失業率維持在4.2%，同時薪資成長放緩（年增3.8%），可能略微緩解通膨擔憂。
• 科技業財報持續消化：蘋果 (-3.74%) 因警告關稅成本而下跌，亞馬遜 (-0.40%) 則因提及關稅影響而發布保守財測後下滑。多數類股強勁反彈。
• 市場焦點仍集中在具韌性的勞動數據、關稅對企業前景的衝擊，以及美國聯準會政策路徑之間的相互作用。

主要市場指數

受惠於優於預期的四月份就業報告，主要市場指數週五全面勁升。標普500指數 (+1.47%) 錄得連續第九個交易日上漲，創下重要技術里程碑。道瓊工業平均指數 (+1.39%) 急劇反彈，而那斯達克綜合指數 (+1.51%) 也大漲。小型股表現尤為強勢，羅素2000指數上漲+2.25%。此次反彈反映投資者在就業數據公布後重燃信心，暫時抑制了對經濟衰退的擔憂。

費城半導體指數亦參與了這波全面反彈，當日上漲+3.53%。儘管潛在分析中仍存在部分利空訊號，但這一強勁表現表明，就業報告帶來的正面情緒與經濟衰退擔憂的潛在緩解，為這個對經濟敏感的族群提供了顯著提振。

從分析角度來看，雖然今日廣泛而強勁的反彈從價格動能的角度來看是一個明確的正面訊號，但在今日走勢之前，根據我們基於近期趨勢比較的分析，主要指數的潛在近期市場特性普遍仍屬不利。今日的強勁漲勢若能持續，這些訊號有望逐步改善；但若要確認潛在市場狀況是否出現超越對就業數據當下反應的持久改善，特別是考慮到本週稍早來自財報和經濟指標的矛盾訊號。

美國前十大公司

儘管整體市場強勁反彈，美國大型企業週五表現卻好壞參半。週四盤後公布的財報反應嚴重影響了個股走勢，尤其是蘋果和亞馬遜最為顯著。

觀察當日的個股表現：蘋果 (Apple Inc) 下跌-3.74%，因其財報中的服務收入低於預期，且強調因關稅影響，預計將產生巨額成本（本季9億美元），蓋過了整體財報優於預期的表現。亞馬遜 (Amazon.com Inc) 下滑-0.40%，因其發布了對當前季度的保守財測，明確指出關稅和貿易政策衝擊是影響因素之一，儘管廣告推動的第一季業績表現亮眼。相較之下，其他主要科技股則普遍反彈：微軟 (Microsoft Corp) 上漲+2.32%，Meta Platforms Inc 上漲+4.34%，Alphabet Inc A股 (Alphabet Inc Class A) 上漲+1.69%，輝達 (NVIDIA Corp) 上漲+2.59%。博通 (Broadcom Inc) 上漲+3.20%。特斯拉 (Tesla Inc) 上漲+2.38%。摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase & Co) 上漲+2.28%，而波克夏海瑟威B股 (Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B) 上漲+1.80%。

根據我們的分析指標，在今日的變動之前，這些公司中大多數的近期市場特性仍偏向疲弱或中性狀態。今日好壞參半的表現，特別是市場對蘋果和亞馬遜財報（儘管優於預期）的負面反應，突顯了市場極度關注前瞻指引和關稅的潛在衝擊，即使在勞動市場消息正面的情況下也是如此。持續監控這些分析訊號與價格走勢至關重要。

經濟指標

今日的重磅經濟數據——四月份就業報告——為市場情緒帶來明顯提振，緩解了短期內對經濟衰退的擔憂。非農就業人數增加17.7萬人的主要數據高於預期，而失業率穩定在4.2%，顯示勞動市場仍具穩定性。儘管近期市場仍對存在與關稅相關的通膨有所擔憂，值得關注的是，平均時薪成長的放緩（月增0.2%，年增3.8%）可能被美國聯準會視為正面訊息，進而減輕立即採取鷹派行動的壓力。這也與我們近期在通膨經濟指標分析中觀察到的緩和訊號相符。

然而，這份勞動市場的正面表現與我們市場衍生的消費者信心經濟指標所發出的持續疲弱訊號形成對比，該指標今日依然為負。這表明，儘管就業狀況保持穩定，但潛在的消費者財務健康狀況可能仍面臨壓力，這與本週稍早的疲弱消費者信心數據一致。我們的分析也繼續顯示，對投資存續期間持中性立場，且企業獲利近期前景低迷。整體經濟景象依然複雜，目前具韌性的勞動市場正為抵禦貿易政策不確定性和潛在消費者壓力等逆風提供支撐。

類股概況

受強勁就業報告刺激的反彈激勵，標普500指數各類股週五普遍上漲，呈現壓倒性的正面表現。全部十一個類股均收漲，顯示風險偏好情緒具廣泛參與性。

週期性類股表現領先，顯示對經濟前景的信心重燃。工業 (+1.79%) 和金融 (+2.07%) 錄得強勁漲幅。原物料 (+1.69%) 亦表現良好。資訊科技 (+1.50%) 強勁上漲，儘管略微落後於標普500指數，或許反映了市場對蘋果和亞馬遜財報的不一反應。通訊服務 (+1.55%) 也實現穩健漲幅。儘管非必需消費品 (+1.55%) 有來自亞馬遜的警示訊息，仍然反彈。即使是近期表現落後的能源類股同樣反彈，上漲+1.46%。防禦性類股也參與上漲，雖然普遍落後於週期性較強的族群：必需消費品 (+0.54%)，公用事業 (+0.78%)，醫療保健 (+1.38%) 和房地產 (+1.39%) 皆收高。

從分析角度來看，今日幾乎所有類股普遍強勁的正面表現是一個顯著的積極發展。然而，與主要指數相似，我們在今日之前分析所顯示的多數類股潛在近期狀況為不利或中性。雖然今日的走勢令人振奮，但仍需要多個類股持續的正面價格走勢，才能確認潛在分析訊號出現明確的正向轉變。

國際市場

受美國就業報告帶動的正面情緒影響，國際市場普遍跟進上漲，儘管漲幅普遍低於美股。美元今日顯著走弱，下跌-1.08%。

已開發市場錄得上漲：歐洲股市上漲+2.11%，日本股市上漲+1.01%。美元走弱可能進一步為這些市場帶來助力。分析持續顯示，從較長的時間範圍來看，這些地區呈現出日益增強的正向特徵。

新興市場也普遍上揚：新興亞洲市場上漲+3.45%，印度上漲+0.69%，拉丁美洲上漲+0.48%。中國股市飆升+3.55%。整體的正面表現顯示，在美國就業數據公布後，全球風險偏好有所改善。

其他資產

週五其他資產類別的活動普遍反映了風險偏好的情緒，隨著衰退擔憂緩解，債券遭拋售（價格下跌，殖利率上升），大宗商品表現好壞參半，美元則走弱。

在固定收益方面，在強勁的就業報告公布後，由於避險資產需求減少，美國公債價格顯著下跌，導致殖利率上升。短期公債價格下跌-0.19%，中期公債價格下跌-0.67%，長期公債價格下跌-1.08%。整體美國綜合債券價格亦下跌-0.49%。

大宗商品表現不一。WTI原油下跌-0.79%。黃金價格微幅上漲+0.17%，儘管處於風險偏好氛圍中，但可能從美元走弱中獲得一些支撐。農產品上漲+0.90%。基本金屬下跌-0.83%。美元指數顯著走弱，下跌-1.08%。在數位資產方面，比特幣價格上漲+0.44%。

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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。 Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。 Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Stocks Surge on Strong Jobs Report, Easing Recession Fears; Tariff Impacts Surface in Tech Earnings

Market Rallies on Payroll Data, Tech Earnings Show Tariff Effects, Fed Policy Eyed

Joe Lu, CFA May 2, 2025

MARKET OVERVIEW

U.S. equity markets concluded the week with a powerful rally on Friday, as investors cheered a surprisingly robust April jobs report that significantly alleviated concerns about an imminent recession. The strong labor market data provided a stark contrast to the negative Q1 GDP print earlier in the week and overshadowed ongoing worries about trade policy and mixed corporate earnings signals. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, comfortably beating the Dow Jones estimate of 133,000, although slightly below March's revised figure. Crucially, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, matching expectations and indicating continued labor market stability. This data suggested underlying resilience in the U.S. economy before the full impact of recent tariff measures is felt.

The positive jobs data sparked a broad-based rally across major indices. The S&P 500 Index surged +1.47%, marking its ninth consecutive day of gains – the longest such streak since November 2004 – and fully erasing the losses incurred since President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement on April 2nd. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped +1.39% (over 560 points), while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index gained +1.51%. Small-capitalization stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 Index, also participated strongly, rising +2.25%.

While the jobs report provided immediate relief, nuances within the data and ongoing corporate commentary kept other market themes active. Wage growth moderated slightly, with average hourly earnings rising just 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year (the lowest annual rate since mid-2024), potentially easing some inflation fears for the Federal Reserve. However, earnings reports, particularly from tech giants, continued to highlight the tangible impacts of tariffs. Apple (-3.74%) shares fell after the company disclosed an expected $900 million hit from tariffs this quarter and discussed shifting production. Amazon (-0.40%) also slipped after issuing cautious guidance, citing tariffs and recessionary fears, despite strong advertising revenue growth. This divergence – a resilient labor market versus tariff pressures impacting corporate outlooks – defines the current complex investment landscape as the market navigates the expiration of the 90-day tariff pause in July.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Major U.S. indices surged Friday, buoyed by a stronger-than-expected April jobs report that eased recession fears: S&P 500 Index (+1.47%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.39%), Nasdaq Composite Index (+1.51%).
• The S&P 500 capped its 9th straight gain, the longest streak since 2004, fully recovering post-"Liberation Day" tariff losses, though underlying analysis still signals caution.
• April Nonfarm Payrolls rose 177k (vs. 133k est.), unemployment held at 4.2%, while wage growth moderated (3.8% YoY), potentially easing inflation concerns slightly.
• Tech earnings digestion continued: Apple (-3.74%) fell on tariff cost warnings, while Amazon (-0.40%) slipped on light guidance citing tariffs. Most sectors rallied strongly.
• Focus remains on the interplay between resilient labor data, tariff impacts on corporate outlooks, and the path of Federal Reserve policy.

BROAD MARKET INDICES

Broad market indices posted strong gains across the board on Friday, driven by the better-than-expected April jobs report. The S&P 500 Index (+1.47%) recorded its ninth straight positive session, a significant technical milestone. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.39%) rallied sharply, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (+1.51%) also surged higher. Small caps significantly outperformed, with the Russell 2000 Index advancing +2.25%. The rally indicated renewed investor confidence following the jobs data, pushing back immediate recession concerns.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index participated in the broad rally, gaining +3.53% on the day. This strong performance suggests the positive sentiment from the jobs report and potential easing of recession fears provided a significant boost to this economically sensitive group, despite lingering unfavorable signals in underlying analysis.

From an analytical perspective, while today's broad and powerful rally is a clear positive signal from a price momentum standpoint, the underlying near-term market character across the major indices generally remained unfavorable according to our analysis based on recent trend comparisons prior to today's move. Today's strong gains may begin to shift these signals if sustained, but confirmation of a durable improvement in underlying market conditions beyond the immediate reaction to the jobs data is still warranted, especially given the conflicting signals from earnings and economic indicators earlier in the week.

TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES

Performance among the largest U.S. companies was mixed on Friday, despite the strong overall market rally. Reactions to earnings reports released late Thursday heavily influenced individual stock movements, particularly for Apple and Amazon.

Looking at individual stock performance for the day: Apple Inc fell -3.74% after reporting softer services revenue than anticipated and highlighting significant expected costs ($900 million this quarter) due to tariffs, overshadowing its headline earnings beat. Amazon.com Inc dipped -0.40% after issuing cautious guidance for the current quarter, explicitly citing tariff and trade policy impacts as contributing factors, despite reporting strong Q1 results driven by advertising. In contrast, other major tech names rallied: Microsoft Corp gained +2.32%, Meta Platforms Inc rose +4.34%, Alphabet Inc Class A added +1.69%, and NVIDIA Corp climbed +2.59%. Broadcom Inc advanced +3.20%. Tesla Inc gained +2.38%. JPMorgan Chase & Co rose +2.28%, while Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B added +1.80%.

Interpreting the underlying analytical signals, the near-term market character for most of these companies remained unfavorable or neutral according to our indicators prior to today's moves. Today's mixed performance, particularly the negative reaction to Apple and Amazon despite their earnings beats, underscores the market's intense focus on forward guidance and the potential impact of tariffs, even amidst positive labor market news. Continued monitoring of these analytical signals alongside price action is crucial.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Today's key economic release, the April jobs report, provided a significant boost to market sentiment by alleviating near-term recession fears. The headline Nonfarm Payroll gain of 177,000 surpassed expectations, and the steady 4.2% unemployment rate indicated labor market stability. Importantly, the moderation in average hourly earnings growth (to +0.2% MoM and 3.8% YoY) could be viewed positively by the Federal Reserve, potentially lessening pressure for immediate hawkish action despite recent tariff-related inflation concerns. This aligns with the easing signal observed in our Inflation economic indicator analysis recently.

However, this positive labor market snapshot contrasts with the ongoing weakness signaled by our market-derived Consumer Strength economic indicator, which remained negative today. This suggests that while employment is holding up, underlying consumer financial health may still be under pressure, consistent with the disappointing consumer confidence data earlier in the week. Our analysis also continued to indicate a neutral stance regarding Investment Duration and a muted near-term outlook for Corporate Earnings. The overall economic picture remains complex, with a resilient labor market currently providing support against headwinds from trade policy uncertainty and potential consumer strain.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

Sector performance within the S&P 500 was overwhelmingly positive on Friday, reflecting the breadth of the rally sparked by the strong jobs report. All eleven sectors finished in positive territory, indicating broad participation in the risk-on move.

Cyclical sectors were among the leaders, indicating renewed confidence in the economic outlook. Industrials (+1.79%) and Financials (+2.07%) posted strong gains. Materials (+1.69%) also performed well. Information Technology (+1.50%) advanced strongly, though slightly lagging the broader S&P 500, perhaps reflecting the mixed reactions to Apple and Amazon earnings. Communication Services (+1.55%) also saw solid gains. Consumer Discretionary (+1.55%) rallied despite the cautionary notes from Amazon. Even the recently lagging Energy sector rebounded, gaining +1.46%. Defensive sectors also participated, though generally lagged the more cyclical groups: Consumer Staples (+0.54%), Utilities (+0.78%), Healthcare (+1.38%), and Real Estate (+1.39%) all finished higher.

From an analytical perspective, today's broad and strong positive performance across nearly all sectors is a significant positive development. However, similar to the broad indices, the underlying near-term conditions indicated by our analysis for most sectors were unfavorable or neutral heading into the day. While today's move is encouraging, sustained positive price action across multiple sectors would be needed to confirm a definitive positive shift in the underlying analytical signals.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

International markets generally participated in the positive sentiment fueled by the U.S. jobs report, though gains were often more moderate than those seen stateside. The U.S. Dollar weakened significantly today, falling -1.08%.

Developed markets posted gains: European equities rose +2.11% and Japanese equities gained +1.01%. The weaker dollar likely provided an additional tailwind for these markets. Analysis continues to indicate strengthening positive characteristics for these regions over longer horizons.

Emerging markets also broadly advanced: Emerging Markets Asia gained +3.45%, India rose +0.69%, and Latin America gained +0.48%. Chinese equities surged +3.55%. The broad positive performance suggests improved global risk appetite following the U.S. jobs data.

OTHER ASSETS

Activity across other asset classes on Friday generally reflected a risk-on sentiment, with bonds selling off (prices lower, yields higher) as recession fears eased, commodities mixed, and the dollar weakening.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury prices declined notably as yields rose following the strong jobs report, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. Short-term Treasury prices fell -0.19%, Intermediate Treasury prices fell -0.67%, and Long-term Treasury prices declined -1.08%. Broad U.S. Aggregate Bond prices also fell -0.49%.

Commodity performance was mixed. WTI Crude Oil declined -0.79%. Gold prices managed a slight gain, rising +0.17%, perhaps finding some support from the weaker dollar despite the risk-on mood. Agricultural Commodities gained +0.90%. Base Metals fell -0.83%. The US Dollar Index weakened significantly, falling -1.08%. In digital assets, Bitcoin prices rose +0.44%.

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