【Joe’s華爾街脈動】周報：焦點轉向聯準會政策與經濟數據，反彈行情面臨技術阻力測試

市場在經歷波動性上漲後，迎來關鍵一週；尋求政策清晰度

Joe Lu, CFA 2025年4月29日 美東時間

本新聞通訊僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議或買賣任何證券或資產類別的推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期為止的觀點，並可能隨時更改，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊係基於從據信可靠來源獲得的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現不代表未來結果。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決定前，應諮詢自己的財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論資產或資產類別的部位。

一周市場觀點

上週市場戲劇性地展現了多空交織的局面，為即將到來的關鍵一週奠定了複雜的基礎。股市急劇反彈（標普500指數 +5.18%，那斯達克指數 +6.97%），大致收復了先前因令人擔憂的第一季GDP萎縮 (-0.3%) 所引發的跌幅。貿易樂觀情緒的轉變，加上四月份就業報告強勁的表現，都為此波反彈帶來助力。然而，這發生在美股指數更廣泛的負面技術趨勢背景下，引發了對此波反彈可持續性的疑問，而本週的事件將對此進行考驗。

固定收益市場的大漲（長期公債上週 +3.46%）以及相關的投資存續期間情緒改善是顯著的發展。這表明市場參與者可能正在消化通膨壓力緩解的預期，或重新調整對美國聯準會政策的預期。關鍵的考驗將於本週三的FOMC聲明及主席鮑爾的記者會上到來；他們的基調和評估對於驗證或挑戰市場在上週所觀察到的利率預期和存續期間偏好的明顯轉變至關重要。

縱觀各資產類別，上週出現的幾項分歧值得未來密切關注。即使在股市和債市反彈之際，美元仍走強 (+0.81%)，這是一種略顯非典型的模式，若持續下去可能對國際資產構成壓力。此外，WTI原油價格的急跌 (-8.38%) 以及黃金 (-2.36%) 未能從顯著降低的殖利率中受益，顯示除了單純的風險偏好/避險情緒之外，還有其他因素對其造成影響，可能與特定的供需動態或與股市的反彈相衝突的更廣泛的經濟成長擔憂有關。

上週美國各類股的表現突顯了對成長股（科技類股 +9.05%）的偏好，但也見到週期性類股，如工業類股 (+6.84%) 的參與，而防禦性類股，如必需消費品 (-0.50%) 則表現落後。這種內部動態將是本週需要重點監控的——領漲力道會否會進一步擴大，表明對復甦的信心，或者如果經濟數據或聯準會的評論令市場樂觀情緒失望，防禦性類股是否會收復失地？對即將公布的數據，特別是ISM服務業指數，市場的反應將提供線索。

總體而言，上週的價格走勢雖然正面，但發生在整體趨勢偏空以及與企業獲利和消費者信心相關的基本經濟訊號令人擔憂的背景下，這形成了一個關鍵的轉折點，代表市場需要得到確認。本週密集的經濟數據和聯準會對外發布的資訊將帶來充足的機會，進而確認此轉折點，抑或可能逆轉上週樂觀走勢提供了。

一周重點摘要

• 市場上週上演強勁的逆勢反彈（標普500指數 +5.18%），從週中低點回升，但進入本週，美股主要指數的整體技術趨勢依然偏空。
• 圍繞投資存續期間的市場情緒改善，恰逢上週債市大漲，為本週至關重要的聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議及鮑爾記者會奠定基礎，政策的確認將是關鍵。
• 顯著的跨資產分歧依然存在（美元走強對比風險資產、油價/金價疲弱對比殖利率下降），需要得到解決，並可能預示著潛在的市場緊張局勢或機會。
• 市場焦點密切轉向即將公布的服務業數據（週一ISM）、聯準會決策（週三）及隨後的聯準會官員談話（週五），以評估上週反彈的持續性並為近期前景提供指引。
• 股市面臨的技術挑戰仍然是從反彈轉變為可持續的上升趨勢，使得即將到來的數據和聯準會的評論成為關鍵的潛在催化劑。

焦點列表重點

本週的焦點列表突顯了那些在上週的技術發展後，為近期前景設定了有趣情境的資產：

• 標普500金融類股：上週上漲+3.39%。中性的技術評估顯示穩定性；若在本週的聯準會會議期間持續穩定，可能強化其韌性。

• 標普500非必需消費品類股：（新加入）上週上漲+5.96%。改善中的週度動能即將面臨對消費者數據以及消費能力持續擔憂的考驗。

• 標普500工業類股：（新加入）上週上漲+6.84%。若即將公布的製造業/服務業數據指向經濟穩定，則趨勢改善至中性可能得以加強。

• 標普500必需消費品類股：（新加入）上週下跌-0.50%。惡化中的週度動能使其技術型態具有參考意義，可能作為本週風險偏好轉變的潛在指標。

• 標普500通訊服務類股：（新加入）上週上漲+5.48%。新興的穩定性將受到市場對聯準會消息更廣泛反應和潛在波動性的考驗。

• 標普500公用事業類股：上週上漲+1.15%。中性評估為防禦性部位提供基準；本週的相對表現可能預示風險偏好的轉變。

• 歐洲股市：上週上漲+2.85%。持續的正向趨勢提供分散配置機會；若美元扭轉近期漲勢，其持續的強勢將值得注意。

• 日本股市：上週上漲+3.12%。強勁的正向技術轉變需要確認；持續的優異表現可能預示著對非美國市場信心的加深。

• 中國股市：上週上漲+1.49%。負面趨勢中的穩定動能需要催化劑；貿易發展仍是潛在轉變的關鍵。

• 印度股市：上週上漲+0.13%。中性趨勢內的盤整等待觸發因素；更廣泛的新興市場情緒將具影響力。

• 拉丁美洲股市：上週上漲+3.45%。若大宗商品價格穩定且全球增長擔憂消退，改善中的正向趨勢可能加速。

• 那斯達克綜合指數：（新加入）上週上漲+6.97%。急劇的動能改善需要轉化為正向趨勢的轉變，以確認科技股領導地位的持續性。

• 短期公債：上週價格上漲+0.47%。焦點仍在其對FOMC會議前後短期利率預期的訊號意義。

• 原油避險部位：（新加入）上週上漲+14.59%。若本週基礎原油價格持續疲弱，將驗證此部位的配置。

• 比特幣：上週反彈+2.75%。強勁的正向趨勢可作為投機風險偏好的晴雨表；其對聯準會消息的反應將具啟示性。

• 黃金：上週下跌-2.36%。儘管殖利率下降但動能減弱，是一個值得關注的分歧；需要重拾上升動能以再次確立其避險地位的吸引力。

• 農產品：上週下跌-0.63%。強勁的基本趨勢面臨短期盤整；持續的強勢對通膨前景具有影響。

• 微軟 (Microsoft Corp)：（新加入）上週上漲+2.88%。負面趨勢中動能改善；需要進一步走強以確認技術性轉折。

• Meta Platforms Inc：（新加入）上週上漲+6.13%。趨勢改善至中性且動能強勁；持續的領導潛力取決於市場對成長的偏好。

• 博通 (Broadcom Inc)：（新加入）上週上漲+5.25%。中性趨勢且動能強勁；其表現為半導體類股的健康狀況提供洞見。

• 特斯拉 (Tesla Inc)：（新加入）上週飆升+18.57%。巨大的動能需要後續力道來確認可持續的復甦型態。

• 波克夏海瑟威 (Berkshire Hathaway Inc)：上週上漲+2.39%。持續的正向趨勢提供穩定性的基線；持續走強將具建設性。

• 摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase & Co)：上週上漲+3.83%。中性評估顯示穩定性；作為關鍵金融領頭羊，在聯準會事件風險前後值得關注。

焦點列表調整

根據我們對上週演變中技術訊號的評估，本週生效以下調整：

• 中期公債：（移除）上週價格上漲+1.94%。基於當前標準，不再將其列為重點，表明焦點可能轉向殖利率曲線的其他部分，具體取決於本週聯準會的訊號。

本週新增的資產反映了上週的市場活動在某些領域創造了值得注意的技術情境——無論是顯著的動能轉變、新興的穩定性，還是相對強弱——使它們成為未來需要重點監控的領域。

展望未來

在上週股市於矛盾經濟訊號中急劇反彈後，即將到來的一週對市場而言是一個關鍵的考驗。焦點集中在確認反彈的持續性，特別是主要美股指數的技術面貌是否最終能夠轉為正向。密集的經濟數據發佈將提供了更多潛在的催化劑，首先是週一的ISM服務業報告，它為非製造業經濟提供了重要觀察視角。而週二公布的三月份美國貿易逆差數據，將在被扭曲的第一季GDP數據之後，為貿易流動提供了進一步的背景資訊。

核心事件是週三的FOMC政策決策及主席鮑爾的記者會。市場將密切剖析其發表的聲明和評論，以驗證上週在債券市場觀察到趨向寬鬆的利率預期的轉變。任何偏離鴿派預期的情況都可能迅速挑戰近期的反彈。隨後的數據發布，如初次請領失業金人數（週四）以及週五多位聯準會官員的談話，將進一步塑造政策預期並考驗市場情緒。

上週反彈期間在5500點（標普500指數）建立的關鍵技術水平將是重要的觀察點。主要指數能否守住近期的漲幅，並突破與其負面潛在趨勢相關的阻力水平？若未能如此，可能暗示上週僅僅是一次性的逆勢反彈。此外，解決上週觀察到的顯著跨資產分歧——特別是美元走強、油價疲弱和黃金反應平淡——對於衡量未來幾週潛在的市場信心和方向至關重要。採用系統性的方法來解讀這些資訊流仍然是關鍵。

立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）

關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。 Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。 Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Focus Shifts to Fed Policy and Economic Data After Rebound Tests Technical Resistance

Key Week Ahead for Markets Following Volatile Gains; Policy Clarity Sought

Joe Lu, CFA April 29, 2025

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

MARKET PERSPECTIVE

Last week provided a dramatic illustration of market crosscurrents, setting a complex stage for the pivotal week ahead. Equities rebounded sharply (S&P 500 +5.18%, Nasdaq +6.97%), largely erasing earlier losses spurred by a concerning Q1 GDP contraction (-0.3%). This recovery was fueled by shifting narratives around trade optimism and culminating in relief from a strong April jobs report. However, this occurred within a broader negative technical trend for U.S. indices, raising questions about the rally's sustainability which will be tested by this week’s events.

The sharp rally in fixed income (Long-Term Treasuries +3.46% last week) and the associated improvement in investment duration sentiment were significant developments. This suggests market participants are perhaps pricing in easing inflation pressures or recalibrating expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The critical test arrives this Wednesday with the FOMC statement and Chair Powell's press conference; their tone and assessment will be crucial in validating or challenging the market's apparent shift in rate expectations and duration appetite observed last week.

Looking across asset classes, several divergences emerged last week that warrant close attention moving forward. The U.S. Dollar strengthened (+0.81%) even as equities and bonds rallied, a somewhat atypical pattern that could pressure international assets if it persists. Furthermore, the sharp plunge in WTI Crude Oil (-8.38%) and the failure of Gold (-2.36%) to benefit from significantly lower yields suggest factors beyond simple risk-on/risk-off sentiment are at play, potentially related to specific supply/demand dynamics or broader economic growth concerns that conflict with the equity market rebound.

The performance within U.S. sectors last week highlighted a preference for growth (Technology +9.05%), but also saw participation from cyclicals like Industrials (+6.84%), while defensives like Consumer Staples (-0.50%) lagged. This internal dynamic will be important to monitor this week – will leadership broaden further, indicating conviction in the recovery, or will defensive sectors regain ground if economic data or Fed commentary disappoints market optimism? The reaction to incoming data, particularly ISM Services, will provide clues.

Ultimately, last week’s price action, while positive, occurred against a backdrop of negative overall trends and concerning underlying economic signals related to corporate profitability and consumer strength. This sets up a critical juncture where the market needs confirmation. The substantial calendar of economic data and Fed communication this week provides ample opportunity for such confirmation or a potential reversal of last week's optimistic moves.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Markets staged a strong counter-trend rally last week (S&P 500 +5.18%), recovering from mid-week lows but still facing negative overall technical trends for major U.S. indices heading into this week.
• Improving sentiment around investment duration coincided with a bond market surge last week, setting the stage for this week's crucial FOMC meeting and Powell press conference where policy validation will be key.
• Significant cross-asset divergences persist (stronger Dollar vs. risk assets, weak Oil/Gold vs. falling yields), requiring resolution and potentially signaling underlying market tensions or opportunities.
• Focus shifts intently to upcoming service sector data (ISM Mon), the Fed decision (Wed), and subsequent Fedspeak (Fri) to gauge the durability of last week's rebound and inform the near-term outlook.
• The technical challenge remains for equities to transition from rebound to a sustainable positive trend, making upcoming data and Fed commentary critical potential catalysts.

FOCUS LIST HIGHLIGHTS

This week's Focus List highlights assets where last week's technical developments set up interesting scenarios for the near future:

• S&P 500 Financials Sector: Gained +3.39% last week. Its neutral technical assessment suggests stability; continued stability through this week's Fed meeting could reinforce its resilience.

• S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector: (New Addition) Advanced +5.96% last week. Improving weekly momentum faces a test from upcoming consumer data and ongoing concerns about spending power.

• S&P 500 Industrials Sector: (New Addition) Rose +6.84% last week. Improvement to a neutral trend could strengthen if upcoming manufacturing/services data points towards economic stabilization.

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector: (New Addition) Declined -0.50% last week. Deteriorating weekly momentum makes its technical pattern relevant as a potential indicator of shifting risk preferences this week.

• S&P 500 Communication Services Sector: (New Addition) Advanced +5.48% last week. Emerging stability will be tested by broader market reaction to Fed news and potential volatility.

• S&P 500 Utilities Sector: Rose +1.15% last week. Neutral assessment provides a benchmark for defensive positioning; relative performance this week could signal risk appetite shifts.

• Europe Equities: Gained +2.85% last week. Persistent positive trend offers diversification; its continued strength would be notable if the US Dollar reverses its recent gains.

• Japan Equities: Advanced +3.12% last week. Strongly positive technical shift needs confirmation; sustained outperformance could signal deepening conviction in non-US markets.

• China Equities: Gained +1.49% last week. Stable momentum within a negative trend requires a catalyst; trade developments remain key for a potential shift.

• India Equities: Rose +0.13% last week. Consolidation within a neutral trend awaits a trigger; broader emerging market sentiment will be influential.

• Latin America Equities: Gained +3.45% last week. Improving positive trend could accelerate if commodity prices stabilize and global growth fears subside.

• Nasdaq Composite: (New Addition) Gained +6.97% last week. Sharp momentum improvement needs to translate into a positive trend shift to confirm tech leadership durability.

• Short-Term Treasury Bonds: Prices rose +0.47% last week. Focus remains on its signaling for near-term rate expectations ahead of and following the FOMC meeting.

• Crude Oil Hedges: (New Addition) Gained +14.59% last week. Continued weakness in underlying crude oil prices this week would validate this positioning.

• Bitcoin: Rallied +2.75% last week. Strong positive trend acts as a barometer for speculative risk appetite; its reaction to Fed news will be telling.

• Gold: Declined -2.36% last week. Weakening momentum despite falling yields is a divergence to watch; needs to reclaim upward momentum to reaffirm its haven status appeal.

• Agricultural Commodities: Declined -0.63% last week. Strong underlying trend faces near-term consolidation; continued strength has implications for inflation outlook.

• Microsoft Corp: (New Addition) Gained +2.88% last week. Improved momentum within a negative trend; needs further strength to confirm a technical turn.

• Meta Platforms Inc: (New Addition) Rose +6.13% last week. Improvement to neutral with strong momentum; continued leadership potential depends on market's growth appetite.

• Broadcom Inc: (New Addition) Added +5.25% last week. Neutral trend with strong momentum; performance offers insights into semiconductor sector health.

• Tesla Inc: (New Addition) Surged +18.57% last week. Substantial momentum needs follow-through to confirm a sustainable recovery pattern.

• Berkshire Hathaway Inc: Advanced +2.39% last week. A sustained positive trend provides a baseline of stability; continued strength would be constructive.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co: Rose +3.83% last week. Neutral assessment suggests stability; key financial bellwether to watch around Fed event risk.

FOCUS LIST ADJUSTMENTS

Based on our evaluation of evolving technical signals from last week, the following adjustment is made effective this week:

• Intermediate-Term Treasury Bonds: (Removed) Prices rose +1.94% last week. It is no longer highlighted based on current criteria, suggesting focus may shift elsewhere on the curve depending on this week's Fed signals.

Assets added this week reflect areas where last week's action created notable technical situations—either significant momentum shifts, emerging stability, or relative strength/weakness—setting them up as key areas to monitor going forward.

LOOKING AHEAD

This upcoming week presents a critical test for the market following last week's sharp rebound amidst conflicting economic signals. Focus intensifies on confirming the rally's durability, particularly whether the technical picture for major U.S. indices can finally turn positive. The dense economic calendar provides numerous potential catalysts, starting with Monday's ISM Services report, which offers a vital look at the non-manufacturing economy. The March U.S. trade deficit (Tuesday) provides further context on trade flows following the Q1 GDP distortions.

The centerpiece is Wednesday's FOMC policy decision and Chair Powell's press conference. The market will parse the statement and commentary intensely for validation of the shift towards easing rate expectations observed in the bond market last week. Any deviation from dovish expectations could quickly challenge the recent rally. Subsequent data points like Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday) and a host of Fed speakers on Friday will further shape policy expectations and test market sentiment.

Key technical levels established at 5500 (on the S&P 500) during last week's rally will be important to watch. Can major indices hold their recent gains and push through resistance levels associated with their negative underlying trends? Failure to do so could suggest last week was merely a counter-trend bounce. Furthermore, resolving the significant cross-asset divergences observed last week—particularly the stronger Dollar, weaker Oil, and muted Gold response—will be crucial for gauging underlying market conviction and direction in the weeks ahead. A systematic approach to interpreting this flow of information remains paramount.

Join the official LINE account of "Joe’s Wall Street Pulse" now to receive the latest column updates (click here to join)