從通膨數據到貿易談判期限，狹隘的漲勢面臨多重催化劑的考驗Joe 盧, CFA 2025年6月7日 美東時間一周重點摘要美國股市表現嚴重分歧，大型股的強勢帶動那斯達克綜合指數上漲+1.9%，但整體市場步履蹣跚，羅素2000指數下跌-2.8%即為明證，加劇了關鍵的內部分歧。市場論調受到具韌性的回溯性數據所支持，包括優於預期的5月份就業報告和強勁的第一季財報季，這為大型股的領漲提供了基本面支撐。然而，前瞻性指標發出警訊，ISM製造業和服務業調查雙雙陷入萎縮區間，顯示潛在的經濟降溫與勞動市場的強勁勢頭相矛盾。債券價格下跌，20年期以上美國公債價格下跌-0.9%，反映市場更擔憂ISM報告中頑固的高物價組成部分，而非歐洲央行降息的鴿派轉向。展望未來，市場面臨「夏季考驗」，將迎接一連串催化因素的挑戰，包括關鍵的通膨數據、7月和8月的貿易關稅最後期限，以及財政政策辯論，這些都將考驗此波狹隘漲勢的持久性。一周市場觀點美國市場正步入一個充滿風險的新階段，經濟強韌的市場表現與實際的內部極端分歧產生明顯衝突。儘管本週稍晚，美中兩國元首進行具建設性的通話，以及5月份就業報告表現穩健，提振了市場情緒，但市場的反應卻遠非一致。大型股標普500指數上漲+1.5%，以科技股為主的那斯達克綜合指數上漲+1.9%。然而，這掩蓋了其他指數的顯著回落。反應美國經濟狀況的羅素2000指數急劇下跌-2.8%，鮮明地顯示了市場內部的脆弱性。這種日益擴大的鴻溝表明，投資者對「經濟強韌」的說法並未全面買單；他們正湧入少數幾檔大型股，而撤出了更廣泛的市場。美國頂尖企業的表現加劇了這種分歧。最近結束的第一季財報季對科技業而言非常強勁，而上週的價格走勢顯示，這種動能仍在特定個股中持續。受惠於其強勁的獲利軌跡以及為其AI運營提供動力的長期能源協議消息，Meta (Meta Platforms Inc.)股價飆升+8.2%。然而，這並非整個產業的漲勢。這種高度選擇性的行為，即少數幾檔股票推動指數上漲，突顯出市場正在獎勵非常特定的題材，同時對其他任何可察覺的風險越來越不能容忍。目前美國潛在的經濟數據正釋放出矛盾的訊號。一方面，勞動市場看來健康。5月份經濟增加了13,9萬個就業機會，超出預期，失業率則維持在4.2%。這為消費者提供了堅定的（儘管是回溯性的）基礎。另一方面，前瞻性的商業調查則明確顯示疲弱。ISM製造業指數連續第三個月萎縮，而ISM服務業指數則近一年來首次陷入萎縮。這正是投資者目前面臨的典型矛盾：消費者仍依賴於過去累積的經濟動能進行消費，而前瞻性的商業活動則指向經濟放緩。美國的產業類股格局也呈現出同樣的集中領漲格局。工業類股(+1.5%)和通訊服務類股(+2.7%)錄得強勁漲幅；它們的技術趨勢證實了其具備領先地位，與這些領域強勁的企業獲利成長一致。然而，更廣泛的非必需消費品類股則下跌-1.3%，儘管就業數據正面，卻未能獲得上漲動能。這表明此波漲勢並非普漲，明確顯示市場內部結構的脆弱。國際方面，歐洲央行如市場預期降息，總裁拉加德表示寬鬆週期「已近尾聲」。然而，此一鴿派訊號被全球通膨擔憂所抵銷，尤其本週原油價格大漲+6.2%。在中國方面，一項民間製造業活動調查顯示出明顯萎縮，反映全球貿易摩擦持續對經濟造成壓力，市場在預期政府將推出更多刺激措施的憧憬下上漲。本週焦點投資農產品提供了對全球糧食供應鏈直接且對通膨敏感的曝險，可為投資組合帶來多元化，並對傳統股債易受影響的風險提供避險。對投資者而言，這意味著獲得一個由基本且非任意性的糧食需求所驅動的非相關報酬來源。核心論點是，在日益脆弱的供給與持續的全球需求之間結構性失衡的推動下，農產品正處於一個長期、多年的牛市之中。持續的地緣政治摩擦和「糧食民族主義」的興起正在擾亂貿易，而氣候變遷則帶來前所未有的「高溫通膨(heatflation)」，透過更頻繁和更嚴重的極端天氣事件降低作物產量。燃料和化肥等投入成本上升，加劇了這些供給衝擊，為價格奠定了更高的基礎。全球最大的大豆和穀物等關鍵商品進口國——中國，使此一態勢加劇。中國對糧食安全的固執追求，為全球市場創造了強大且價格缺乏彈性的需求基礎。中國國內任何生產短缺（通常由氣候引發）都會迫使其成為龐大且緊急的買家，從而引發全球價格大幅飆漲。對投資者而言，這意味著當前環境不僅是週期性波動，而是一種結構性稀缺的新常態，為價格升值提供了顯著且持續的潛力。此論點帶有重大風險，其中最主要的是極端的價格波動以及期貨市場結構可能產生的負利差。商品價格容易出現劇烈且不可預測的波動，即使基本商品價格穩定或上漲，持續的「正價差(contango)」（遠期價格高於即期價格）市場也會侵蝕報酬。此外，嚴重的全球經濟衰退可能暫時抑制需求，而美元走強則構成不利因素。中國亦是一把雙面刃；儘管其需求是主要驅動因素，但突然釋放戰略儲備的政策轉變或中國國內意外豐收，都可能對價格造成顯著（儘管可能短暫）的下行壓力。因此，對投資者而言，這些風險需要採取策略性方法、長期眼光，並理解此類資產的報酬不會是線性的，且需要積極管理其固有的波動性。焦點列表焦點列表調整本週移除資產特斯拉(Tesla Inc) (移除)：該股技術結構顯著惡化，上週價格走勢確認跌破關鍵支撐位。趨勢失去上漲動能，反映其短期成長前景的不確定性增加，因此從我們的焦點列表中移除。波克夏海瑟威B股(Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B) (移除)：在經歷一段時間的表現不佳後，趨勢已轉為中性偏弱。上週價格走勢未能展現新的動能或挑戰上方壓力，因此在出現更明確的方向性訊號足以支持重新關注之前，將其移除。本週新增資產20年期以上美國公債空頭部位 (新加入)：將其納入反映了債券殖利率上升（債券價格下跌）的技術趨勢正在增強。上週的價格走勢證實了此一動能，使得對此主題的曝險成為針對利率「長期維持高檔」環境佈局的投資組合之相關焦點。展望未來市場目前正進入「夏季考驗」期，在此期間，強韌的基本面將受到一系列重要催化事件的考驗。未來一週便是此考驗的第一階段，重點將落在即將公布的通膨數據——CPI與PPI。這些數據對於形塑美國聯準會的短期展望至關重要，目前官員們處於「觀望」狀態，而6月份降息的可能性已基本排除。本週之後，行事曆上將排滿潛在引發波動的因素。7月9日和8月12日的兩項關鍵貿易關稅最後期限，加上圍繞7月中旬債務上限「X日」的財政僵局，勢必提高消息面風險。這些事件將挑戰市場近期的上漲動能，並可能輕易動搖當前相對脆弱的平靜氛圍。核心問題在於，市場的領漲力量能否最終擴大，或者小型股的持續疲弱最終是否會拖累整個市場走低。債券市場仍然是最研判宏觀經濟走勢的核心指標。長天期美國公債價格若再出現一週的下跌，將鞏固利率「長期維持高檔」的論述，並加劇對股票估值的壓力。原油價格反彈增添了另一層複雜性，因為持續走強將直接助長聯準會試圖抑制的通膨擔憂。我的趨勢追蹤方法仍然專注於工業類股和主流科技股的既有領先地位。然而，我們正高度警戒，因為整個市場的深層分歧顯示其結構可能會輕易被即將到來的考驗所顛覆。保持聯繫並分享見解若您覺得本文有幫助，請點讚支持。歡迎將此電子報轉發給可能覺得有價值的同事和朋友。訂閱即可直接在您的收件匣中收到此分析。在社群媒體上關注我們以獲取更多更新。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。Market Rallies on Resilient Fundamentals, But Internal Fractures DeepenA Narrow Rally Faces a Season of Catalysts, from Inflation Data to Trade DeadlinesJoe Lu, CFA June 7, 2025EXECUTIVE SUMMARYU.S. equities delivered a deeply fractured performance, with mega-cap strength lifting the Nasdaq Composite +1.9% while the broader market faltered, evidenced by the Russell 2000's -2.8% decline, widening a critical internal divergence.The market’s narrative was bolstered by resilient backward-looking data, including a better-than-expected May jobs report and a strong first-quarter earnings season, which provided a fundamental anchor for large-cap leadership.However, forward-looking indicators flashed warning signs, as both ISM Manufacturing and Services surveys fell into contraction territory, suggesting a potential economic cooling that contradicts the labor market's strength.Bond prices fell, with 20+ Year Treasury Bonds declining -0.9%, reflecting a market more concerned with stubbornly high price components in the ISM reports than the dovish turn from the European Central Bank, which cut its key interest rate.Looking ahead, the market faces a "summer test" with a gauntlet of catalysts including crucial inflation data, trade tariff deadlines in July and August, and fiscal policy debates, which will challenge the durability of this narrow rally.MARKET PERSPECTIVEThe U.S. market has entered a precarious new phase where a narrative of economic resilience is clashing with the reality of extreme internal divergence. While sentiment was buoyed late in the week by a constructive phone call between the U.S. and Chinese presidents and a solid May jobs report, the market’s reaction was far from uniform. The large-cap S&P 500 Index rose +1.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added +1.9%. This, however, masked a significant retreat elsewhere. In a stark display of this fragility, the Russell 2000 Index, a barometer for the domestic economy, fell sharply by -2.8%. This growing chasm shows investors are not buying the "resilient economy" story wholesale; they are crowding into a few mega-cap names and abandoning the broader market.This bifurcation was reinforced by the performance of top U.S. companies. The recently concluded first-quarter earnings season was exceptionally strong for technology, and last week’s price action showed that momentum continuing in select names. Meta Platforms Inc. surged an impressive +8.2%, catalyzed by its powerful earnings trajectory and news of a long-term energy deal to power its AI operations. However, this was not a sector-wide updraft. This highly selective behavior, where a handful of names drive the index, underscores a market that is rewarding very specific narratives while becoming increasingly intolerant of any perceived risk elsewhere.The underlying economic data is now sending conflicting signals. On one hand, the labor market appears healthy. The economy added 139,000 jobs in May, beating expectations, and the unemployment rate held at 4.2%. This provides a solid, albeit backward-looking, foundation for the consumer. On the other hand, forward-looking business surveys were unambiguously weak. The ISM Manufacturing index contracted for a third straight month, while the ISM Services index fell into contraction for the first time in nearly a year. This is the classic conflict investors now face: a consumer still spending based on past strength, while forward-looking business activity points toward a slowdown.The U.S. sector landscape tells the same story of concentrated strength. Industrials (+1.5%) and Communication Services (+2.7%) posted strong gains, with their technical trends confirming leadership status, aligning with the strong earnings growth seen in these areas. However, the broader Consumer Discretionary sector fell -1.3%, unable to gain traction despite the positive jobs data. This demonstrates that the rally's strength is not lifting all boats, a clear sign of the market’s fragile internal structure.Internationally, the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate as expected, with President Lagarde signaling the easing cycle was "nearly concluded." This dovish signal, however, was offset by global inflation concerns, particularly as Crude Oil jumped +6.2% for the week. In China, markets advanced on hopes for more government stimulus after a private survey of manufacturing activity showed a sharp contraction, reflecting the ongoing impact of global trade friction.HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEEKAn investment in agricultural commodities provides direct, inflation-sensitive exposure to the global food supply chain, offering portfolio diversification and a hedge against risks to which traditional equities and bonds are vulnerable. For investors, this means gaining access to a source of uncorrelated returns driven by the fundamental, non-discretionary need for food. The core thesis is that a secular, multi-year bull market in agricultural commodities is underway, driven by a structural imbalance between increasingly fragile supply and relentless global demand.Persistent geopolitical frictions and the rise of "food nationalism" are disrupting trade, while climate change is introducing unprecedented "heatflation," degrading crop yields through more frequent and severe weather events. Compounding these supply shocks are rising input costs for fuel and fertilizer, establishing a higher floor for prices. This dynamic is supercharged by the role of China, the world's largest importer of key commodities like soybeans and grains. China's non-negotiable quest for food security creates a powerful and price-inelastic demand base for global markets. Any domestic production shortfall there, often climate-induced, forces Beijing to become a massive, urgent buyer, triggering significant price surges across the globe. For investors, this means the current environment is not just cyclical volatility but a new paradigm of structural scarcity, offering significant and sustained potential for price appreciation.This thesis carries substantial risks, chief among them being extreme price volatility and the potential for negative carry from the futures market structure. Commodity prices are subject to sharp, unpredictable swings, and a sustained market in "contango" (where forward prices are higher than spot prices) can erode returns even if underlying commodity prices are stable or rising. Furthermore, a severe global recession could temporarily dampen demand, and a strengthening U.S. dollar poses a headwind. China also represents a double-edged sword; while its demand is a primary driver, a sudden policy shift to release its strategic reserves or an unexpectedly large domestic harvest could create significant, albeit likely temporary, downward pressure on prices. Therefore, for an investor, these risks demand a strategic approach, a long-term horizon, and an understanding that returns in this asset class will not be linear and require active management of the inherent volatility.FOCUS LISTFOCUS LIST ADJUSTMENTSAssets Removed This WeekAssets Added This WeekLOOKING AHEADThe market is now entering a "summer test," a period where resilient fundamentals will be weighed against a series of meaningful catalysts. The week ahead is the first stage of this test, with major inflation reports (CPI and PPI) set for release. These will be critical in shaping the Federal Reserve's near-term outlook, with officials currently in a "wait-and-see" mode and a June rate cut now off the table.Beyond this week, the calendar is filled with potential volatility drivers. Key trade tariff deadlines on July 9 and August 12, along with ongoing fiscal debates surrounding the debt ceiling "X-date" in mid-July, will keep headline risk elevated. These events will challenge the market's recent momentum and could easily disrupt the fragile sense of calm. The central question is whether the market's leadership can finally broaden, or if the persistent weakness in small caps will ultimately pull the entire market lower.The bond market remains the most important barometer. Another week of falling prices for long-duration Treasury bonds would cement the 'higher for longer' rate narrative and intensify the pressure on equity valuations. The rebound in Crude Oil adds another complication, as continued strength would directly fuel the inflation concerns that the Fed is trying to suppress. My trend-following approach remains focused on the established leadership in Industrials and dominant technology names. However, we are on high alert, as the profound divergences across the market signal a structure that could be easily upended by the tests to come.Stay Connected & Share the InsightsLike this article if you found it helpful.Forward this newsletter to colleagues and friends who might find it valuable.Subscribe to receive this analysis directly to your inbox.Follow us on social media for more updates.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.Join the official LINE account of "Joe’s Wall Street Pulse" now to receive the latest column updates (click here to join)

美國消費者具韌性、通膨趨緩帶來支撐，但全球貿易前景仍是漲勢能否持續的關鍵Joe 盧, CFA 2025年5月30日 美東時間一周重點摘要美國股市在假期縮短的一週內反彈，標普500指數上漲+1.12%，受惠於強勁的科技股財報和具韌性的消費者，儘管貿易關稅的法院裁決和持續的美中貿易談判狀況，為市場注入波動。儘管貿易限制和新的出口管制公告的陰影依然存在，大型科技股，尤其是輝達(NVIDIA)(+2.53%)，繳出亮眼的業績，確認了對AI投資的承諾，並推動那斯達克指數上漲+0.99%。美國關鍵通膨數據（核心PCE）四月份年增率趨緩至+2.5%，為2021年以來最低的年度增幅，且消費者信心顯著改善；然而聯準會會議紀錄顯示，與貿易政策不確定性相關的通膨上行風險依然存在。已開發國際(EAFE)市場呈現顯著分歧：日本(EWJ +2.42%)因美日貿易樂觀情緒和具支撐性的國內數據而反彈，而歐洲股市(VGK +0.64%)則因美國關稅延後和歐洲央行降息預期而溫和上漲，與中國股市(MCHI -3.53%)的回檔形成對比。對潛在經濟狀況的評估指向一些持續的不利因素；儘管近期的市場強勢令人鼓舞，特別是標普500指數五月份上漲+6.28%，但在關稅不確定性持續形塑全球市場情緒之際，保持警惕至關重要。一周市場觀點美國股市在波動且因假期縮短的一週內全面上漲，標普500指數(+1.12%)、那斯達克指數(+0.99%)和道瓊指數(+0.96%)均收紅。市場最初受惠於美國對歐盟新關稅的延後。然而，在一項不利於現行全球關稅的法院判決（該判決迅速被擱置）後，週中出現下跌。本週稍晚，財政部長Bessent關於美中貿易談判陷入僵局的言論，則略微打壓了市場情緒。儘管尾盤出現不確定因素，但整體而言，美國股市五月份仍錄得強勁漲幅（標普500指數當月上漲+6.28%，年初至今上漲+0.81%）。不過，技術指標顯示仍需保持謹慎。科技類股成為本週推升美股的主要動能，特別是AI領導者輝達(NVIDIA)(+2.53%)的強勁財報，突顯了市場對AI基礎建設需求持續強勁。微軟(Microsoft)(+1.21%)和Meta(+1.72%)亦上漲，而蘋果(Apple)(-0.61%)則表現落後。四月份核心PCE通膨率（年增+2.5%）降至2021年以來最低水平，但仍高於美國聯準會2%的目標。最新聯準會會議紀錄顯示，通膨仍面臨上行風險，部分原因在於貿易政策的不確定性。五月份消費者信心有所改善，可能與貿易緊張局勢緩解有關，儘管通膨預期依然偏高。在關稅法院裁決和7年期公債標售反應熱烈後，公債殖利率有所下降。類股表現分歧。科技股、公用事業(+0.81%)和必需消費品(+1.88%)表現相對強勢，而能源類股(-0.24%)則下跌。此種分歧反映出在企業財報、消費者數據和持續的貿易不確定性之間尋求平衡的複雜市場環境。國際股市表現各異。歐洲股市上揚，受惠於美國關稅延後以及對歐洲央行降息預期升溫。日本市場因對美日潛在貿易協議的樂觀情緒而反彈。相較之下，在美中貿易談判陷入僵局以及中國國內側重刺激措施的背景下，中國市場則出現回檔。本週焦點MSCI歐洲、澳洲及遠東(EAFE)指數是廣受認可且極具重要性的基準，常用於衡量北美以外已開發股市的表現。「EAFE」代表歐洲、澳大拉西亞（Austalasia）及遠東地區，涵蓋英國、日本、德國、法國、瑞士和澳洲等21個已開發國家，但特別排除了美國和加拿大。其旨在代表這些國際市場的大型和中型股部分，捕捉各成分國約85%的自由流通調整後市值。因此，MSCI EAFE指數是機構投資者和基金經理衡量其國際已開發市場股票投資組合回報，以及理解這些重要經濟體廣泛趨勢的重要工具。我的分析明確指出，MSCI EAFE指數(美元計價)值得策略性超配考量。這項判斷基於多項具吸引力的因素：EAFE市場相較於美國股市存在顯著的估值折價（本益比為15.18倍），同時提供較高的股息殖利率(3.05%)，既提供了價值緩衝，也帶來了穩健的收益流。更關鍵的是，資本流動結構正發生的實質性變化——包括美國政策驅動的分散配置、德國吸引投資的財政刺激，以及日本因利率轉變而出現的資產回流——目前正有利於此區域。這些趨勢，在美國政府可能傾向弱勢美元以提振出口的背景下，可能進一步放大，創造一個有利於匯率波動美化以美元計價回報的成熟環境。對投資者而言，這提供了一個及時的機會，以獲取經風險調整後更高的回報、有效分散美國股市集中風險的顯著效益，以及資本增值與收益的強效組合，這些都受到全球資本配置實質性轉變的驅動，而此轉變似乎被市場低估了。儘管EAFE主要國家內部的地緣政治風險、匯率波動和經濟複雜性不容忽視，但就當前的投資格局來看，這些因素已充分反映在資產價格中。對投資者而言，策略上的當務之急是跳脫近期美國市場的主導地位，並認識到全球股市領導地位的週期性。MSCI EAFE指數憑藉其獨特的產業曝險（尤其是金融和工業類股）以及對價值和收益因子的內在傾向，提供了差異化的回報來源，這對於強化投資組合的穩定性至關重要。審慎考量對EAFE的配置不僅僅是一種戰術調整，更是一種策略性舉措，旨在提升長期投資組合的韌性，並從這個受基本價值和這些不斷演變的總體經濟順風驅動、有望復甦的全球市場區塊中獲取超額報酬。焦點列表重點焦點列表調整本週移除資產本週新增資產展望未來未來一周，市場將繼續關注企業基本面（尤其是美國科技業）與全球貿易政策持續不確定性之間的相互作用。儘管標普500指數在5月份強勁上漲6.28%，核心個人消費支出（PCE）通膨率放緩（4月份同比增長2.5%）和消費者信心回升等正向的經濟訊號也為市場提供了支撐，但「關稅針鋒相對」仍然是一個高度不確定因素。隨著關稅談判期限的臨近，例如，歐盟進口關稅期限延至7月9日，以及中美90天談判的期限至8月12日，這些期限的到來，都可能進一步加劇市場波動。更多經濟數據的發布，包括對製造業和服務業的更多洞察，將受到密切關注，以了解其對聯準會政策前景的影響。儘管聯準會會議紀錄顯示，目前對貿易導致的通膨風險持謹慎態度，但任何通膨放緩或經濟復甦的進一步跡象，都可能影響市場對利率的預期。上週美國公債殖利率下跌，部分原因是貿易政策波動和強勁的拍賣需求，其趨勢將繼續成為影響整體市場情緒的關鍵因素。從技術角度來看，美國股市能否鞏固近期漲幅並建立更廣泛的支撐基礎至關重要。儘管受輝達等公司強勁業績和人工智慧支出再度增加的推動，科技股一直是關鍵驅動力，但可持續的反彈往往需要更廣泛的參與。EAFE市場的表現，尤其是歐洲（受歐洲央行支撐，但面臨當地經濟考驗）和日本（受特定貿易樂觀情緒提振）的分化路徑，也將成為衡量全球風險偏好的重要指標。。投資者可能已經有些「關稅議題疲乏」，但貿易角力影響企業獲利和經濟成長的可能性仍然存在。儘管一些展望表明，從長期來看，「關稅高峰和恐慌高峰可能已經過去」，但短期內市場走勢可能仍將波動。TrendFolios®趨勢追蹤策略強調了保持警覺的重要性。儘管市場已出現復甦跡象，但公用事業等類股的防禦性領導地位仍持續，加上成長走勢，顯示投資者仍處於微妙的立場。未來一週的關鍵問題在於，強勁獲利和消費者數據所帶來的正向動力，能否繼續抵消全球貿易不確定性及潛在經濟擔憂所帶來的阻力。保持聯繫並分享洞見：若您覺得本文有幫助，請點讚支持。歡迎將此新聞通訊轉發給可能覺得有價值的同事和朋友。訂閱即可直接在您的信箱中接收此分析。在社群媒體上追蹤我們以獲取更多更新。本新聞通訊僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議或買賣任何證券或資產類別的推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期為止的觀點，並可能隨時更改，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊係基於從據信可靠來源獲得的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現不代表未來結果。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決定前，應諮詢自己的財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論資產或資產類別的部位。立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。Tech Earnings Shine, Non-U.S. Markets Diverge Amid Persistent Tariff VolatilityResilient U.S. Consumer and Moderating Inflation Offer Support, But Global Trade Picture Remains Key to Sustained AdvanceJoe Lu, CFA May 30, 2025EXECUTIVE SUMMARYU.S. equity markets rebounded in a holiday-shortened week, with the S&P 500 gaining +1.12%, driven by strong tech earnings and a resilient consumer, though trade policy headlines, including court rulings on tariffs and ongoing U.S.-China trade talk status, injected volatility.Mega-cap technology, notably NVIDIA (+2.53%), delivered robust results, affirming commitment to AI investment and fueling Nasdaq's +0.99% gain, despite the overhang of trade restrictions and new export control announcements.Key U.S. inflation data (core PCE) eased to +2.5% year-over-year in April, its slowest annual pace since 2021, and consumer confidence saw a sharp improvement; yet Fed minutes revealed ongoing concerns about upside inflation risks tied to trade policy uncertainty.Developed international (EAFE) markets showed notable divergence: Japan (EWJ +2.42%) rallied on U.S.-Japan trade optimism and supportive domestic data, while European equities (VGK +0.64%) gained modestly on delayed U.S. tariffs and ECB rate cut hopes, contrasting with a pullback in China (MCHI -3.53%).My assessment of underlying economic conditions points to some persistent headwinds; while recent market strength is encouraging, particularly the S&P 500's +6.28% gain in May, vigilance is crucial as tariff uncertainties continue to shape global market sentiment.MARKET PERSPECTIVEU.S. stocks experienced gains across the board during a volatile, holiday-shortened week, with the S&P 500 (+1.12%), Nasdaq (+0.99%), and Dow (+0.96%) all finishing in positive territory. The market was initially buoyed by a postponement of new U.S.-EU tariffs. However, an intraweek dip occurred following a court decision against existing global tariffs, which was quickly put on hold. Later in the week, sentiment was somewhat dampened by Treasury Secretary Bessent's remarks concerning stalled U.S.-China trade negotiations. Despite this late-week uncertainty, U.S. equities registered strong gains for May overall (S&P 500 +6.28% for the month, +0.81% year-to-date), although technical indicators suggest ongoing caution.Robust earnings from the technology sector, particularly from AI leader NVIDIA (+2.53%), were a significant driver of market gains, underscoring strong demand for AI infrastructure. Microsoft (+1.21%) and Meta (+1.72%) also saw increases, while Apple (-0.61%) underperformed.April's core PCE inflation rate (+2.5% year-over-year) fell to its lowest level since 2021 but remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The minutes from the latest Fed meeting indicated persistent upside risks to inflation, partly due to uncertainties surrounding trade policy. Consumer confidence showed improvement in May, potentially linked to easing trade tensions, although inflation expectations remained elevated. Treasury yields declined following the tariff court ruling and a strong auction of 7-year notes.Sector performance presented a mixed picture. Technology, Utilities (+0.81%), and Consumer Staples (+1.88%) displayed strength, while Energy (-0.24%) experienced a decline. This divergence reflects a complex market environment navigating a balance between corporate earnings, consumer data, and ongoing trade uncertainties.International equity markets exhibited diverse performance. European equities advanced, supported by the delay in U.S. tariffs and growing expectations of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. Japanese markets rallied on optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Japan trade agreement. In contrast, Chinese markets experienced a pullback amid stalled U.S.-China trade talks and a domestic focus on stimulus measures.HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEEKThe MSCI EAFE Index is a widely recognized and crucial benchmark for investors looking to gauge the performance of developed equity markets outside of North America. "EAFE" stands for Europe, Australasia, and the Far East, encompassing 21 developed countries such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, France, Switzerland, and Australia, while notably excluding the United States and Canada. It is designed to represent the large and mid-cap segments of these international markets, capturing approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each constituent country. Consequently, the MSCI EAFE Index serves as a vital tool for institutional investors and fund managers to measure the returns of their international developed market equity portfolios and to understand broad trends across these significant economies.My analysis strongly indicates that the MSCI EAFE Index warrants strategic overweight consideration. This conviction stems from an attractive confluence of factors: EAFE markets trade at a significant valuation discount to U.S. equities (P/E of 15.18x) while offering a superior dividend yield (3.05%), providing both a value cushion and a robust income stream. Critically, emerging capital flow dynamics—including U.S. policy-driven diversification, German fiscal stimulus drawing investment, and Japanese asset repatriation due to shifting interest rates—are now favoring this region. These trends, potentially amplified by a U.S. administration inclined towards a weaker dollar, create a ripe environment for currency movements to flatter USD-based returns. For investors, this presents a timely opportunity to capture enhanced risk-adjusted returns, meaningful diversification from concentrated U.S. equity risk, and a potent combination of capital appreciation and income, all driven by tangible shifts in global capital allocation that appear underappreciated by the broader market.While geopolitical risks, currency volatility, and economic complexities within key EAFE nations are undeniable, the current investment landscape suggests these are adequately priced in. The strategic imperative for investors is to look beyond recent U.S. market dominance and recognize the cyclical nature of global equity leadership. The MSCI EAFE Index, with its distinct sector exposures (notably Financials and Industrials) and inherent factor tilts towards Value and Yield, provides a differentiated return stream crucial for robust portfolio construction. A carefully considered allocation to EAFE is not merely a tactical adjustment but a strategic move to enhance long-term portfolio resilience and capture alpha from a segment of the global market poised for a potential resurgence, driven by fundamental value and these evolving macroeconomic tailwinds.FOCUS LIST HIGHLIGHTSFOCUS LIST ADJUSTMENTSAssets Removed This WeekIndia (Removed) - Despite a modest gain of +0.52% for its tracking asset last week, my assessment indicates its broader technical structure has deteriorated sufficiently to warrant its removal from active focus. The prevailing trend characteristics no longer meet the necessary conditions for inclusion.Agricultural Commodities (Removed) - This asset class experienced a notable decline of -2.55% for its tracking asset last week, contributing to a weakening technical profile. This price action suggests that the prior positive trend has lost significant impetus.Assets Added This WeekCommunication Services (New Addition) - This sector has been added due to a significant improvement in its technical characteristics observed last week, including a +0.53% gain for its tracking asset. This suggests an emerging positive trend.S&P 500 Index (New Addition) - The S&P 500 Index is included as its broad market importance, recent +1.12% rebound, strong May performance, and navigation of significant news, has brought its technical picture to a juncture deserving more intensive observation.Short Bloomberg Crude Oil (New Addition) - The +3.98% advance for this exposure last week signals strengthening technicals for positions that benefit from falling crude oil prices. This development suggests a potentially significant bearish trend is emerging in the energy complex.LOOKING AHEADThe upcoming week will likely see continued focus on the interplay between corporate fundamentals, particularly in the U.S. technology sector, and the persistent uncertainty stemming from global trade policies. While the S&P 500 capped off a strong May with a gain of +6.28%, and positive economic signals like moderating core PCE inflation (+2.5% YoY for April) and rebounding consumer confidence offer support, the "tariff tit-for-tat" remains a significant wildcard. Key tariff deadlines, such as the July 9 date for EU import tariff decisions and the August 12 expiration of the 90-day negotiation window with China, will loom larger as they approach, potentially injecting further volatility.Further economic data releases, including more insights into manufacturing and services sectors, will be scrutinized for their impact on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. While the Fed minutes indicated ongoing caution about inflation risks tied to trade, any further signs of inflation moderation or economic resilience could influence market expectations for interest rates. U.S. Treasury yields fell last week partly due to trade policy volatility and strong auction demand, and their direction will continue to be a key factor for broader market sentiment.From a technical standpoint, the ability of the U.S. equity market to consolidate its recent gains and build a broader base of support will be critical. While technology, fueled by strong earnings from companies like NVIDIA and reaffirmed AI spending, has been a key driver, sustainable rallies often require wider participation. The performance of EAFE markets, particularly the divergent paths of Europe (supported by ECB hopes but facing local economic tests) and Japan (buoyed by specific trade optimism), will also be important indicators of global risk appetite.Investors may be experiencing some "tariff fatigue," yet the potential for trade disputes to impact corporate earnings and economic growth remains. While some outlooks suggest "peak tariff rates and peak fear are likely behind us" in the longer term, the near-term path is likely to remain choppy. My trend-following approach underscores the importance of vigilance. While the market has shown resilience, the persistence of defensive leadership in sectors like Utilities, alongside growth narratives, suggests a nuanced investor posture. The key question for the week ahead is whether the positive momentum from strong earnings and supportive consumer data can continue to counterbalance the headwinds from an uncertain global trade environment and underlying economic cautions.Stay Connected & Share the InsightsLike this article if you found it helpful.Forward this newsletter to colleagues and friends who might find it valuable.Subscribe to receive this analysis directly to your inbox.Follow us on social media for more updates.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 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貿易緊張局勢再起，拖累本週表現，市場焦點轉向未來經濟數據與聯準會評論Joe 盧, CFA 2025年5月23日一周重點摘要由於美國總統就歐盟進口商品及蘋果(Apple) iPhone潛在關稅發表最新言論，在陣亡將士紀念日週末前夕引發投資者不安，美國股市本週收低，普遍回落。在關稅言論發布後，科技股與成長型股票，特別是蘋果公司，立即面臨賣壓，凸顯市場對貿易政策轉變及其對企業獲利潛在影響的敏感性。公用事業和必需消費品等防禦性類股，以及黃金等資產展現相對韌性，顯示市場普遍存在強烈的避險情緒。公債殖利率與美元因關稅消息而下跌，反映市場對潛在經濟影響的擔憂，同時市場波動性有所上升。接下來因假期縮短的交易週，將密切關注關鍵經濟數據的發布，包括GDP和PCE通膨數據，以及輝達(Nvidia)的財報和美國聯準會主席鮑爾預定談話中任何政策訊號。一周市場觀點美國股市上週在明顯的避險氛圍中收低，主要因為週末前川普總統突然宣布，威脅將對非美國製造的蘋果(Apple) iPhone及自歐盟進口的商品課徵高額關稅。此消息在原本準備迎接長週末假期的市場中，掀起一陣不安情緒。標普500指數本週最終下跌-1.9%，道瓊工業指數則下跌-1.7%。以科技股為主的那斯達克綜合指數亦回檔-1.9%，而小型股羅素2000指數則出現更為顯著的跌幅，達-2.7%。這波由貿易焦慮所引發的賣壓衝擊了現行的上升趨勢，並導致市場波動性急遽上升，預示市場可能出現更劇烈的震盪。市場的即時反應突顯出投資者情緒對貿易政策依然高度敏感，相關議題再度成為市場焦點。新一輪關稅言論對美國主要企業的影響尤為顯著。蘋果(Apple Inc.)股價受到顯著衝擊，本週下跌-7.6%，在週五針對性的關稅威脅發布後，盤前即出現急跌。其他主要科技股和成長股亦感受到壓力；輝達(NVIDIA Corp.)回檔-2.6%，亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc.)下跌-2.0%，Meta Platforms (Meta Platforms Inc.)則下跌-2.6%。微軟(Microsoft Corp.)則錄得較為溫和的跌幅，為-0.7%。相較之下，Alphabet (Alphabet Inc.)則逆勢上漲+2.7%。其他重要企業，包括博通(Broadcom Inc.)(-1.7%)、特斯拉(Tesla Inc.)(-1.0%)、波克夏海瑟威(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)(-0.8%)及摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)(-2.5%)，本週均收黑。此價格走勢顯示市場對風險進行了重新評估，特別是針對那些擁有龐大國際供應鏈或海外營收曝險的企業。我們對基本經濟狀況的評估，在貿易緊張局勢重現的多重影響下，認為需要維持高度警覺。儘管第一季企業獲利普遍強勁，標普500指數成分股中多數公司業績超乎預期，但新關稅的前景可能會對未來的利潤率構成壓力，並抑制市場對2025年剩餘時間企業獲利成長的預期。在最新關稅消息出現前，市場一度認為經濟衰退風險正逐步下降，但貿易爭端若再度升級，將成為顯著的不確定因素，可能衝擊經濟成長。基於調查的經濟數據，如消費者信心和企業執行長信心指數，先前已透露出一些警訊，而新的關稅威脅可能加劇這些擔憂，即便在勞動市場等「硬數據」尚未顯示出相應疲軟的情況。上週美國各類股的表現，明確地反映了市場轉向防禦性佈局的趨勢。公用事業類股(+0.1%)和必需消費品類股(+0.6%)是少數勉強錄得漲幅的類股，突顯其在不確定時期的吸引力。反之，對經濟成長和貿易關係較為敏感的類股則面臨阻力。資訊科技類股受到蘋果等主要成分股消息的直接衝擊，下跌-3.3%。能源類股大幅下挫-4.2%。金融類股下跌-2.4%，非必需消費品類股損失-2.3%，工業類股回吐-0.9%，原物料類股下跌-0.5%，醫療保健類股小幅走低-0.1%，通訊服務類股微幅下跌-0.9%，不動產類股則回檔-2.0%。此一格局強化了市場的審慎情緒，投資者似乎正在減少對被認為較易受到貿易干擾或經濟放緩影響的領域的曝險。受到週末前關稅消息衝擊，國際市場與其他資產類別也對本週的市況發展做出反應。先前表現強勢的歐洲股市(其追蹤代表指數本週上漲+1.4%)，在美國威脅課徵50%關稅後，面臨新的不利因素。日本股市上漲+1.0%。據報導，在新的寬鬆措施的幫助下，中國市場小幅收紅(+0.4%)。黃金是此波避險情緒中顯著的受益者，因投資者尋求避風港而大漲+4.0%。比特幣亦上漲+5.4%。原油價格上揚+0.6%。在固定收益市場，關稅消息促使資金流向優質資產，公債殖利率隨之下滑；1-3年期美國公債上漲+0.1%。美元兌主要國際貨幣亦貶值。此種高度不確定性反映在旨在從標普500指數疲弱中獲益的工具(放空標普500指數的工具)上，其本週上漲+4.1%；而那些旨在從長期公債殖利率上升中獲利的工具(放空20年期以上美國公債的工具)本週亦上漲+3.5%，儘管殖利率在週五有所回落。這些市場動態凸顯了市場因應地緣政治與貿易情勢發展，而迅速進行風險重新定價的現象。本週焦點儘管本週自焦點列表中移除，但通訊服務類股仍是一個引人注目的投資概念。整體而言，它提供了一種明智的方式，來投資於我們所熟悉的科技和媒體巨擘的成長，但由於這些公司往往能產生大量實際現金，因此其走勢可能更為穩健。對投資者而言，這意味著有機會參與令人振奮的創新，同時受益於成熟企業的財務實力。那麼，為何此類股具有吸引力？許多這類公司都非常擅長將其廣受歡迎的服務——例如線上搜尋、社群媒體、串流娛樂和行動通訊服務——轉化為可觀的利潤。與某些需要在廠房和設備上持續投入巨額資金的科技領域不同，許多通訊服務業的領導者是透過其品牌、用戶網絡和訂閱模式來創造價值。對您而言，這代表這些企業通常擁有強勁且可靠的現金流入。這些現金可以再投資於開發新產品、拓展市場規模，或是回饋給股東，進而推動資產的穩定增長。此外，該產業中的頂尖企業通常非常有效率地運用資金來創造更多營收。它們積極投入於新概念的研發、軟體開發以及強化品牌——這些雖然是無形資產，卻極具價值。當這些「無形」投資被妥善管理時，它們往往就能轉化為真實且可持續的利潤。對投資者而言，這一點很重要，因為它顯示這些公司並非僅僅依賴市場炒作，而是真正在打造長期價值，這正是推動股價長期增值的核心動能。簡而言之，投資通訊服務類股讓您能夠參與科技和媒體的未來。然而，由於許多這類公司是提供必要或廣受歡迎服務的成熟領導者，並且擅長創造現金，相較於投資更具投機性的科技企業，這可能是在您的投資組合中實現長期成長的更穩定方式。本週焦點列表焦點列表調整本週移除資訊科技類股 (移除): 此類股上週面臨顯著阻力，特別是在直接衝擊主要成分股的關稅聲明之後。這導致其技術型態惡化，因不再符合標準而移出焦點列表。金融類股 (移除): 對於新一輪貿易緊張局勢可能對整體經濟造成的衝擊，以及潛在的市場波動性的擔憂，對金融類股構成壓力，導致其趨勢特性轉弱並因此被移除。通訊服務類股 (移除): 在市場普遍疲弱和不確定性增加的背景下，此類股亦經歷回檔，使其技術型態不再符合我們的焦點標準。然而，這仍是一個可行的長期投資標的。不動產類股 (移除): 對經濟前景和利率預期的敏感性（這兩者皆因關稅消息而變得更不確定）導致此類股趨勢下滑，因此予以移除。道瓊工業指數 (移除): 作為一個對跨國企業有顯著曝險的廣泛市場指標，新一輪的貿易擔憂影響了其整體技術強度，導致其被移出焦點列表。標普500指數 (移除): 與道瓊指數相似，由於關稅焦慮引發的廣泛賣壓，標普500指數的技術面轉弱，因此被移除。羅素2000指數 (移除): 小型股通常對可能受貿易戰影響的國內經濟情緒較為敏感，其出現顯著下跌，導致此指數不再符合焦點標準。CSI China Internet Index中證海外中國互聯網指數 (移除): 儘管中國市場獲得部分支撐，但此特定指數仍受到複雜的地緣政治和貿易相關壓力影響，其技術趨勢目前不值得繼續關注。輝達(NVIDIA Corp) (移除): 儘管即將公布財報，但該股隨著與貿易相關擔憂引發的整體科技股和半導體股拋售而回檔，使其短期技術面吸引力下降而被移出焦點。亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc) (移除): 作為一家擁有大量全球採購的企業，更廣泛貿易中斷的威脅可能導致其表現不佳和技術趨勢轉弱，因此被移除。本週新增Alphabet (Alphabet Inc) (新加入): Alphabet上週在重創的科技類股中展現相對強勢，成功錄得漲幅。此韌性及其技術特性的改善使其目前符合納入焦點的標準，後續值得關注其是否具備領漲潛力。展望未來在週五關稅聲明後，接下來因假期縮短的交易週將籠罩在高度不確定性中。市場方向可能在很大程度上受到這些貿易主題的後續發展，以及市場對其潛在經濟影響的整體評估所左右。根據我們的趨勢追蹤方法，目前建議保持謹慎，因為美國主要指數正在測試重要的支撐水平。若無法守穩，可能代表進一步的下行風險；反之，若出現明確反彈，才能確認主要的上升趨勢能夠消化這些新的衝擊。美國市場將於5月26日（週一）因陣亡將士紀念日休市。投資者將密切關注美國聯準會主席鮑爾週日在普林斯頓大學畢業典禮上的致詞，儘管他不太可能發表重大的政策聲明。然而，任何有關經濟前景的評論都將受到仔細審視。本週的經濟數據方面，重點包括週四公布的第一季國內生產毛額(GDP)第二次估計值，該數據初值為年化調整後-0.3%。作為聯準會關鍵通膨指標的四月份個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數，將於週五公布，至關重要。週五上午公布的四月份新屋銷售數據呈現回落，此前成屋銷售數據亦令人失望。耐久財（durable goods）訂單和消費者信心指數則安排在週二公布。美國聯準會一直維持謹慎的「按兵不動」立場，近期的官方評論顯示其不願釋出即將降息的訊號，如果貿易緊張局勢顯現通膨性，或不利於經濟增長，這種情緒可能會更加惡化。企業方面，本週市場將聚焦在人工智慧領導者輝達(Nvidia, NVDA)於週三下午公布的財報上。這份報告將成為科技類股乃至整體市場的焦點，至少在短期內可能蓋過貿易消息的影響。本週亦安排了數次公債標售，在近期一次20年期公債標售反應不佳後，市場將關注其需求狀況。鑑於市場重新聚焦於關稅問題，我們預期市場對頭條新聞的敏感度將維持在高點。經濟數據、聯準會評論以及地緣政治貿易發展之間的相互作用將決定市場趨勢。在對貿易前景及其對成長和通膨的影響尚未明朗前，採取防禦姿態仍屬於合理的策略。保持聯繫並分享見解：若您覺得本文有幫助，請點讚支持。請將此電子報轉發給可能認為有價值的同事和朋友。訂閱即可直接在您的收件匣中接收此分析。在社群媒體上關注我們以獲取更多更新。本電子報僅供參考之用，並不構成任何投資建議或買賣任何證券或資產類別的推薦。文中所述觀點為作者截至發布日期之意見，並可能隨時更改，恕不另行通知。所提供資訊乃基於從相信屬可靠來源獲取之數據，但其準確性、完整性及及時性不獲保證。過往表現並非未來業績的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其自身的財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論之資產或資產類別的部位。立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。Tariff Tremors Shake Markets: Caution Advised as Uncertainty Looms Over Holiday WeekendRenewed Trade Tensions Cap Weekly Performance, Shifting Focus to Economic Data and Fed Commentary AheadJoe 盧, CFA 2025/05/23EXECUTIVE SUMMARYU.S. equity markets ended the week on a weaker note, broadly retreating as fresh presidential statements regarding potential tariffs on European Union imports and Apple's iPhones unsettled investors ahead of the Memorial Day weekend.Technology and growth stocks, particularly Apple, faced immediate selling pressure following the tariff remarks, highlighting the market's sensitivity to trade policy shifts and their potential impact on corporate profitability.Defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples, along with assets such as Gold, demonstrated relative resilience, indicative of a heightened risk-off sentiment prevailing in the market.Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar declined on the tariff news, reflecting concerns about potential economic repercussions, while market volatility saw an uptick.The upcoming holiday-shortened week will be closely watched for key economic releases, including GDP and PCE inflation data, alongside earnings from Nvidia and any policy signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's scheduled remarks.MARKET PERSPECTIVEThe U.S. equity landscape concluded last week with a distinct risk-off tone, largely triggered by new presidential announcements late in the week threatening significant tariffs on Apple's iPhones not made in the U.S. and on imports from the European Union. This news sent a ripple of concern through markets that were otherwise preparing for the long holiday weekend. The S&P 500 Index ultimately declined by -1.9% over the week, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -1.7%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite also saw a pullback of -1.9%, while the small-capitalization Russell 2000 Index experienced a more pronounced drop of -2.7%. This late-week selling pressure, fueled by trade anxieties, challenged prevailing uptrends and caused a spike in volatility, signaling potential for further choppiness. The immediate market reaction underscores how sensitive investor sentiment remains to trade policy, pushing it back to the forefront of market concerns.The impact of the renewed tariff rhetoric was particularly evident in key U.S. companies. Apple Inc. shares were notably affected, declining -7.6% for the week, with a sharp pre-market drop on Friday following the specific tariff threats. Other major technology and growth names also felt the pressure; NVIDIA Corp. pulled back by -2.6%, Amazon.com Inc. lost -2.0%, and Meta Platforms Inc. was down -2.6%. Microsoft Corp. registered a more modest decline of -0.7%. In contrast, Alphabet Inc. managed a gain of +2.7%. Other significant companies, including Broadcom Inc. (-1.7%), Tesla Inc. (-1.0%), Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (-0.8%), and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (-2.5%), all finished the week in negative territory. This price action suggests a reassessment of risk, especially for companies with significant international supply chains or revenue exposure.Our assessment of underlying economic conditions, now compounded by the re-emergence of trade tensions, calls for continued vigilance. While corporate earnings for the first quarter have generally been strong, with a high percentage of S&P 500 companies beating estimates, the prospect of new tariffs could weigh on future profit margins and temper expectations for earnings growth through the rest of 2025. Prior to the latest tariff news, there was a view that recession odds were moderating, but the potential for escalating trade disputes introduces a significant uncertainty that could impact growth. Softer survey-based economic data, such as consumer and CEO confidence, had already signaled some caution, and the new tariff threats could exacerbate these concerns, even if the "hard data," particularly from the labor market, has not yet shown commensurate weakness.U.S. sector performance last week clearly reflected the shift towards defensive posturing. Utilities (+0.1%) and Consumer Staples (+0.6%) were among the few to eke out gains, underscoring their appeal in uncertain times. Conversely, sectors more sensitive to economic growth and trade relations faced headwinds. Information Technology was down -3.3%, directly impacted by the news affecting major constituents like Apple. Energy fell sharply by -4.2%. Financials declined -2.4%, Consumer Discretionary lost -2.3%, Industrials gave back -0.9%, Materials were down -0.5%, Healthcare edged lower by -0.1%, Communication Services dipped -0.9%, and Real Estate retreated -2.0%. This pattern reinforces a cautious market sentiment, with investors appearing to reduce exposure to areas perceived as more vulnerable to trade disruptions or an economic slowdown.International markets and other asset classes reacted to the week's developments, particularly the late-week tariff news. European equities, which had been showing strength (+1.4% for their tracking proxy), faced new headwinds with the threat of 50% tariffs from the U.S. Japanese equities gained +1.0%. Chinese markets were modestly positive (+0.4%), reportedly aided by new easing measures. Gold was a notable beneficiary of the risk-off mood, rallying +4.0% as investors sought safe havens. Bitcoin also advanced +5.4%. Crude Oil prices were up +0.6%. In fixed income, the tariff news prompted a flight to quality, with Treasury yields falling; 1-3 Year Treasury Bonds gained +0.1%. The U.S. dollar also declined against major international currencies. The heightened uncertainty was reflected in instruments designed to benefit from S&P 500 weakness (Short S&P500), which gained +4.1%, and those structured to gain from rising longer-term Treasury yields (Short 20+ Year Treasury), which were up +3.5% over the week, though yields did fall on Friday. These movements highlight the market's quick repricing of risk in response to geopolitical and trade developments.HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEEKEven though it was removed from the focus list this week, the Communication Services sector presents a compelling investment idea. Bottom line, it offers a smart way to invest in the growth of familiar technology and media giants, but with a potentially steadier ride because these companies tend to generate a lot of actual cash. For investors, this means a chance to tap into exciting innovations while benefiting from the financial strength of established businesses.So, why is this sector attractive? Many of these companies are excellent at turning their popular services—think online search, social media, streaming entertainment, and mobile phone services—into significant profits. Unlike some tech areas that require massive ongoing spending on factories and equipment, many Communication Services leaders build value through their brands, user networks, and subscription models. What this means for you is that these businesses often have strong, reliable cash coming in. This cash can be reinvested to create new, exciting products, expand their reach, or even be returned to shareholders, all of which can contribute to a growing investment.Furthermore, the best companies in this sector are typically very efficient with how they spend money to make more money. They invest heavily in developing new ideas, software, and strengthening their brands—things you can't physically touch but are incredibly valuable. When these "invisible" investments are managed well, they translate into real, sustainable profits. For an investor, this is important because it shows these companies aren't just relying on hype; they are building real, long-term value, which is a key driver for stock price appreciation over time.In short, investing in the Communication Services sector allows you to participate in the future of technology and media. However, because many of these companies are established leaders providing essential or highly desired services and are skilled at generating cash, it can be a more stable way to achieve long-term growth in your portfolio compared to investing in more speculative tech ventures.FOCUS LIST THIS WEEKFOCUS LIST ADJUSTMENTSRemoved This WeekInformation Technology(Removed): The sector faced significant headwinds last week, particularly following tariff announcements that directly impact major constituents. This resulted in a deterioration of its technical posture, leading to its removal from focus as it no longer meets the criteria.Financials(Removed): Concerns about the broader economic impact of renewed trade tensions and potential market volatility weighed on the financial sector, leading to a weakening in its trend characteristics and its subsequent removal.Communication Services(Removed): This sector also experienced a pullback amidst the general market weakness and increased uncertainty, causing its technical profile to no longer align with our focus criteria. This remains a viable long term investment however.Real Estate(Removed): Sensitivity to economic outlook and interest rate expectations, both of which became more uncertain with the tariff news, contributed to a decline in this sector's trend, warranting its removal.Dow Jones Industrial Average(Removed): As a broad market gauge with significant exposure to multinational corporations, the renewed trade concerns impacted its overall technical strength, leading to its removal from the focus list.S&P 500 Index(Removed): Similar to the Dow, the S&P 500's technical picture weakened due to the broad-based selling pressure stemming from tariff anxieties, resulting in its removal.Russell 2000 Index(Removed): Small-capitalization stocks, often sensitive to domestic economic sentiment which can be affected by trade wars, saw a notable decline, leading to this index no longer meeting focus criteria.CSI China Internet Index(Removed): While Chinese markets saw some support, this specific segment remains subject to complex geopolitical and trade-related pressures, and its technical trend did not warrant continued focus at this time.NVIDIA Corp(Removed): Despite upcoming earnings, the stock pulled back with the broader tech and semiconductor sell-off related to trade concerns, causing its immediate technical picture to become less compelling for focus.Amazon.com Inc(Removed): As a company with significant global sourcing, the threat of broader trade disruptions likely contributed to its underperformance and a weakening of its technical trend, leading to its removal.Added This WeekAlphabet Inc(New Addition): Alphabet demonstrated relative strength within the hard-hit technology sector last week, managing to post a gain. This resilience and an improvement in its technical characteristics have led to its inclusion as it now meets the criteria for focus, making it important to watch for potential leadership.LOOKING AHEADThe upcoming holiday-shortened week is set against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty following Friday's tariff pronouncements. Market direction will likely be heavily influenced by any follow-through on these trade themes and the broader assessment of their potential economic impact. Our trend-following approach suggests caution, as key U.S. indices are testing important support levels. A failure to hold these could signal further downside, while a firm rebound would be needed to suggest the primary uptrend can absorb these new shocks. U.S. markets are closed on Monday, May 26th, for Memorial Day.Investors will be closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's baccalaureate remarks at Princeton University on Sunday, although it's unlikely he will make significant policy statements. However, any commentary on the economic outlook will be scrutinized. The week's economic calendar features the second estimate of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday, which initially came in at -0.3% annually adjusted. April's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation gauge for the Fed, is due on Friday and will be critical. April New Home Sales data released Friday morning showed a retreat, following disappointing existing home sales figures. Durable goods orders and consumer confidence are also on tap Tuesday. The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious "on hold" stance, and recent official commentary suggests reluctance to signal imminent rate cuts, a sentiment likely to be reinforced if trade tensions appear inflationary or detrimental to growth.From the corporate side, the major event will be earnings from AI leader Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday afternoon. This report will be a significant focal point for the technology sector and the broader market, potentially overshadowing trade news, at least temporarily. Several Treasury auctions are also scheduled, and demand will be watched after a recent poorly received 20-year auction. Given the renewed focus on tariffs, we anticipate that market sensitivity to headlines will remain high. The interplay between economic data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical trade developments will dictate market trends. A defensive posture appears warranted until greater clarity emerges on the trade front and its implications for growth and inflation.Stay Connected & Share the Insights:Like this article if you found it helpful.Forward this newsletter to colleagues and friends who might find it valuable.Subscribe to receive this analysis directly to your inbox.Follow us on social media for more updates.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.Join the official LINE account of "Joe’s Wall Street Pulse" now to receive the latest column updates (click here to join)

關稅緊張局勢緩解、通膨降溫，股市大漲；關鍵數據即將公布Joe Lu, CFA 2025年5月16日 美東時間一周市場觀點美國股市上周強勢反彈，標普500指數上漲+5.16%，那斯達克綜合指數則飆升+6.80%。主要漲幅來自本周初美中宣布關鍵性的90天貿易休兵協議。根據協議，美國將多數中國進口商品的關稅降至30%（先前高達145%），中國則將多數美國商品的關稅降至10%。這項具重大意義的降溫措施，顯著緩解了市場對貿易戰升級的恐懼。同時，美國放寬AI晶片貿易限制的報導推動那斯達克指數的漲幅，相較於4月8日的低點，上漲逾20%，技術上代表進入牛市。儘管這波強勁反彈已使標普500指數重回2025年正報酬區間，我們的底層分析仍顯示，美股指數更廣泛的負面技術趨勢尚未完全扭轉，仍需進一步確認。我們焦點列表中的主要美國企業表現普遍強勁，由科技股和成長型股票領漲。輝達(NVIDIA)上周大漲+15.36%，直接受惠於圍繞AI晶片貿易的正面情緒。其他大型科技股如特斯拉(+22.88%)、亞馬遜(+7.03%)、Meta Platforms(+7.08%)、微軟(+3.67%)和博通(+10.03%)亦顯著上揚，反映投資者重燃對科技股的熱情。我們對潛在經濟狀況的評估肯定貿易休兵在減輕眼前的經濟衰退壓力方面，發揮了正面的影響。儘管指標持續指向美國經濟正處於晚期循環（投資存續期間和企業獲利展望負面，通膨壓力正面），但朝向更易管理的平均關稅率發展，符合我們的基本情境預期，並避免了更具破壞性的結果。此趨勢亦獲得四月份通膨數據的佐證：總體CPI月增0.2%（年增2.3%，為2021年2月以來最小增幅），核心CPI年增率維持在2.8%，而PPI則意外下降。若此物價壓力趨緩的態勢得以延續，將有助於美國聯準會目前按兵不動的立場，並可能在勞動市場走弱時，為下半年的寬鬆政策預留空間。儘管正向的貿易消息可能開始提振市場情緒，但堅韌的「硬數據」（三月份激增後，四月份零售銷售相對穩定，初請領失業金人數健康）與極度疲弱的「軟數據」（五月份消費者信心創2022年6月以來最低）之間的落差，仍然是當前局勢的關鍵特徵。上周美國各類股表現普遍正面，由周期性與科技導向型類股領漲。資訊科技類股上漲+7.81%，非必需消費品類股上漲+8.06%，工業類股上漲+5.72%，顯示風險偏好顯著改善。即使是防禦型類股，亦有所表現，例如公用事業類股(+2.60%)和必需消費品類股(+0.85%)，但相較之下，漲幅落後於對經濟較為敏感的類股。芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數(VIX)連續第七周下跌，反映投資者對短期波動的預期顯著降低。國際股市亦受惠於全球市場情緒的改善。歐洲股市上漲+2.31%，日本股市上漲+0.92%。中國股市亦上揚(+1.81%)，可能受到其國內信貸數據逐步改善的支撐，這或代表當地可能進一步放寬政策。其他資產類別則反映了風險偏好的情緒：受正面貿易消息影響，公債價格下跌，殖利率隨之上揚（短期公債-0.06%，20年以上公債避險部位+1.76%）。WTI原油價格（透過USO追蹤）上漲+3.81%。然而，黃金顯著回檔，本周下跌-3.41%，為年初以來的漲勢，畫下一個值得注意的休止符。比特幣則上漲+2.74%。一周重點摘要由於美中關稅休兵及通膨數據趨緩，顯著提振投資者情緒，故美國股市上周大漲（標普500指數+5.16%），為近六周內來的第四次收紅。。優於預期的通膨報告（四月CPI年增+2.3%，PPI意外下降）進一步舒緩市場的擔憂，並支持聯準會今年稍晚可能彈性降息的觀點。我們對經濟狀況的評估仍指向經濟周期晚期循環階段，但貿易緊張局勢的降溫，降低了當前最壞情況的衰退風險，儘管消費者信心等「軟數據」依然處於歷史低檔。焦點列表新增眾多項目，包括印度股市、美國主要指數以及科技股，反映本周行情反彈幅度廣泛，風險偏好同步回升。本周焦點從我的分析角度來看，航太與國防(A&D)產業持續值得投資者重點關注。這個廣泛的產業包含了商用航空、中藥國防承包，以及快速發展的太空探索領域的企業。典型的航太與國防產業特點在於漫長的產品開發和銷售周期、持續投入大量的研發，以及高度依賴全球政府機構和大型企業高度依賴採購。該產業的發展軌跡通常受到當前地緣政治氣候、技術創新發展以及更廣泛的全球經濟趨勢所影響。在此領域中，某些投資方法旨在提供不同公司規模的廣泛產業參與度，這可以為投資者提供對該產業更為分散的曝險。當前航太與國防產業的重要性，牢牢紮根於持續且複雜的全球安全局勢，這為全球國防能力的強勁需求提供了支撐。我們的專有指標顯示，許多關鍵產業參與者擁有大量且持續的訂單，顯示未來營收具有一定程度的可見度。與此同時，儘管面臨營運上的障礙和個別公司特定的問題，商用航太領域將受惠於機隊更新和客運量增加的長期結構性需求。該產業的基本面顯示，中期而言，在這些持久性需求驅動下，預期將有穩健的獲利成長。展望未來，航太與國防產業展現具備卓越表現的潛力，並受到多項潛在催化因素的支撐。為因應地緣政治動態，全球對國防現代化的持續（甚至可能增加的）投資，提供了一個強勁的需求基礎。供應鏈中斷的緩解可能釋放更高的生產效率，並支持利潤率的改善。此外，先進航空系統、太空商業化，以及下一代推進技術等領域的重大創新，皆代表著可觀的長期成長機會。儘管該產業目前的市場估值反映了一定程度的樂觀情緒，但必須在其戰略重要性與未來成長前景的背景下進行評估。投資者需要考量的核心問題包括：當前國防支出軌跡的可持續性、商用航太生產正常化的進程，以及新興技術將如何重塑既有領導者和新進者之間的競爭格局。焦點列表重點本周的焦點列表突顯了那些根據我們對上周市場活動的分析，展現出值得注意技術特性的資產。下表概述了這些關鍵領域：焦點列表調整根據我們對不斷演變的技術訊號的評估，並比較重點資產（E欄中模型百分比 > 0者）與前一周的資產，本周焦點列表作出以下調整：本周移除資產：(5月9日的焦點列表中沒有資產（模型百分比 > 0）在5月16日的列表中模型百分比降至零。因此，本周沒有基於此特定標準的移除。)本周新增資產：展望未來繼上周市場在建設性的貿易發展和趨緩的通膨數據中找到顯著安慰後，我們未來一周的焦點將轉向此正向動能能否延續，並開始明確扭轉主要美股指數潛在的負面技術趨勢。關稅方面，「政策高度不確定性」的緩解，特別是美中休兵，是一個重大的正面因素，可能為避免最壞的經濟衰退情境提供底部支撐。然而，正如我們更廣泛的經濟分析所示，經濟仍處於晚期循環，因此仍需保持警惕。我們預期市場將持續區分「硬」數據（上周CPI、PPI和穩定的初請領失業金人數均具支撐性）和「軟」的市場情緒數據（雖然疲弱，但若貿易樂觀情緒得以維持，則可能改善）。本周即將公布的經濟數據，包括周一的領先經濟指標諮商會指數，以及本周稍晚的四月份成屋與新屋銷售數據，將是衡量經濟活動韌性的重要參考。儘管美國聯準會目前按兵不動，但任何來自官員的進一步評論都將受到分析，以判斷其在支持成長與確保通膨預期穩定之間平衡的評估是否有所轉變，尤其是在財政部長Bessent強調，需要在七月中旬前解決債務上限問題的背景下。同時，圍繞2017年減稅與就業法案屆期的相關討論也將開始佔據更重要的位置。技術面來看，在上周的強勁反彈（標普500指數收復其「解放日」後的失土，那斯達克指數進入牛市）之後，主要美股指數正在測試關鍵阻力。若能在這些基準之上盤整，或進一步向上突破，將有利於確認底部支撐和潛在的新上升趨勢。我們將密切關注市場領漲力道是否能持續擴大至最初由科技股帶動的反彈。對目標導向的投資者而言，關鍵在於持續專注於多元化策略，運用再平衡使投資組合與長期目標保持一致，同時認知到與政策轉變相關的周期性波動仍應在預期之內。歡迎將此分析分享給可能覺得有價值的人士。若要持續接收我們針對美國經濟、股市和產業的深度分析與洞見，請訂閱我們的電子報。本新聞通訊僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議或買賣任何證券或資產類別的推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期為止的觀點，並可能隨時更改，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊係基於從據信可靠來源獲得的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現不代表未來結果。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決定前，應諮詢自己的財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論資產或資產類別的部位。立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。Markets Find Comfort in Hard Data and Trade Truce; Will Trend Reversal Last?Equities Surge as Tariff Tensions Ease and Inflation Cools; Key Economic Data on TapJoe Lu, CFA May 16, 2025MARKET PERSPECTIVEU.S. equity markets experienced a significant rally last week, with the S&P 500 Index advancing +5.16% and the Nasdaq Composite surging +6.80%. The bulk of these gains came early in the week following the pivotal announcement of a 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China. This agreement saw the U.S. reduce its tariffs on most Chinese imports to 30% (down from as high as 145%) and China reduce its tariffs to 10% on most U.S. goods, a meaningful de-escalation that significantly eased market fears of an intensifying trade war. This news, coupled with reports of eased U.S. trade restrictions on AI chips, propelled the Nasdaq more than 20% above its April 8th low, technically entering a bull market. Despite this strong rebound, which has brought the S&P 500 back into positive territory for 2025, our underlying analysis suggests that broader negative technical trends for U.S. indices have not yet been fully reversed, requiring further confirmation.Performance among prominent U.S. companies on our Focus List was overwhelmingly positive, led by technology and growth names. NVIDIA gained an impressive +15.36% last week, directly benefiting from positive sentiment around AI chip trade. Other large-cap tech stocks like Tesla (+22.88%), Amazon.com (+7.03%), Meta Platforms (+7.08%), Microsoft (+3.67%), and Broadcom (+10.03%) also advanced significantly, reflecting renewed investor enthusiasm.Our assessment of underlying economic conditions acknowledges the positive impact of the trade truce in reducing immediate recessionary pressures. While our indicators continue to point to a late-cycle U.S. economy (negative Investment Duration and Corporate Earnings outlooks, positive Inflation pressure), the move towards a more manageable average tariff rate aligns with our base-case scenario and avoids more damaging outcomes. This was complemented by favorable April inflation data: headline CPI rose a modest 0.2% month-over-month (2.3% YoY, the smallest since Feb 2021), core CPI held steady at 2.8% YoY, and PPI unexpectedly dropped. This moderation in price pressures, if sustained, supports the Federal Reserve's current on-hold stance and could provide room for policy easing later this year should the labor market soften. The ongoing divergence between resilient "hard data" (relatively steady retail sales in April after a March surge, healthy jobless claims) and extremely weak "soft data" (May consumer sentiment at its lowest since June 2022) remains a key feature of the landscape, though the positive trade news may begin to lift sentiment.U.S. sector performance last week was broadly positive, with cyclical and technology-oriented sectors leading the charge. Information Technology gained +7.97%, Consumer Discretionary +8.06%, and Industrials +5.72%, indicating a significant improvement in risk appetite. Even defensive sectors participated, such as Utilities (+2.60%) and Consumer Staples (+0.85%), though they lagged the more economically sensitive groups. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell for the seventh consecutive week, reflecting significantly reduced investor expectations of short-term volatility.International equity markets also benefited from the improved global sentiment. Europe Equities gained +2.31% and Japan Equities added +0.92%. China Equities (+1.81%) also advanced, likely supported by its domestic credit data showing gradual improvement, which might signal further policy easing there. Other asset classes reflected the risk-on mood: Treasury bond prices declined as yields rose on the positive trade news (Short-Term Treasuries -0.06%, 20+ Year Treasury Hedges +1.76%). WTI Crude Oil prices (via USO) rose +3.81%. Gold, however, retreated significantly, falling -3.41% for the week, a notable pause in its year-to-date rally. Bitcoin gained +2.74%.EXECUTIVE SUMMARYU.S. equity markets surged last week (S&P 500 +5.16%), marking the fourth positive week in six, as a significant U.S.-China tariff truce and moderating inflation data dramatically improved investor sentiment.The announced 90-day tariff reduction (U.S. to 30%, China to 10%) and eased AI chip restrictions were key catalysts, driving the Nasdaq (+6.80%) into a technical bull market, up over 20% from its April low.Favorable inflation reports (April CPI +2.3% YoY, PPI unexpectedly dropping) further bolstered markets by easing concerns and supporting the view that the Fed may have flexibility for potential rate cuts later in the year.Our assessment of economic conditions still points to a late-cycle environment, but the de-escalation in trade tensions reduces immediate worst-case recessionary risks, though "soft data" like consumer sentiment remains historically weak.The Focus List saw numerous additions, including India Equities and key U.S. indices and tech stocks, reflecting the week's broad-based rally and improved risk appetite.HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEEKFrom my analytical perspective, the Aerospace & Defense (A&D) sector continues to merit focused attention from investors. This broad industry encompasses firms involved in commercial aviation, vital defense contracting, and the rapidly evolving domain of space exploration. Characteristically, A&D is defined by protracted product development and sales cycles, substantial ongoing investment in research and development, and a significant reliance on procurement from governmental bodies and major corporations globally. The sector's trajectory is often shaped by the prevailing geopolitical climate, the pace of technological innovation, and broader global economic trends. Certain investment approaches within this space aim to provide broad industry participation across various company sizes, which can offer a more diversified exposure to the sector's underlying themes.The current relevance of A&D is firmly anchored by a persistent and complex global security landscape, which underpins continued robust demand for defense capabilities worldwide. Our proprietary indicators point to substantial and sustained order books for many key industry players, suggesting a degree of forward revenue visibility. Simultaneously, the commercial aerospace segment, while navigating operational hurdles and discrete company-specific issues, stands to benefit from the long-term structural demand for fleet renewal and increasing passenger volumes. The industry's fundamentals suggest expectations for solid earnings growth over the medium term, reflecting these enduring demand drivers.Looking ahead, the potential for the A&D sector to deliver noteworthy performance is supported by several potential catalysts. Continued, and possibly augmented, global investment in defense modernization in response to geopolitical dynamics provides a strong demand floor. An easing of supply chain disruptions could unlock enhanced production efficiencies and support margin improvement. Furthermore, significant innovation in fields such as advanced aerial systems, the commercialization of space, and next-generation propulsion technologies represent considerable long-term growth opportunities. While current market valuations for the sector reflect a degree of optimism, they must be assessed in the context of the industry's strategic importance and its future growth profile. Key questions for investors to consider include the durability of current defense spending trajectories, the cadence of commercial aerospace production normalization, and how emerging technologies will reshape the competitive landscape for both incumbent leaders and newer entrants.FOCUS LIST HIGHLIGHTSThis week's Focus List highlights assets exhibiting noteworthy technical characteristics based on our analysis of last week's market action. The table below outlines these key areas:FOCUS LIST ADJUSTMENTSBased on our evaluation of evolving technical signals and comparing highlighted assets (those with Model % > 0 in Column E) with those from the prior week, the following adjustments are made to the Focus List this week:Assets Removed This Week:(There were no assets on the May 9th Focus List (Model % > 0) that had their Model % fall to zero on the May 16th list. Therefore, no removals based on this specific criterion this week.)Assets Added This Week:LOOKING AHEADFollowing a week where markets found significant comfort in constructive trade developments and moderating inflation data, our focus for the upcoming week shifts to whether this positive momentum can be sustained and begin to definitively reverse the underlying negative technical trends in major U.S. indices. The easing of "peak policy uncertainty" regarding tariffs, especially the U.S.-China truce, is a significant positive, likely supporting a base case away from worst-case recessionary scenarios. However, as our broader economic analysis suggests a late-cycle environment, vigilance is still required. We expect the market to continue differentiating between "hard" data (which was supportive last week with CPI, PPI, and steady jobless claims) and "soft" sentiment data (which has been weak but may improve if trade optimism holds).Upcoming economic releases this week, including the Conference Board Leading Economic Index on Monday, and April Existing and New Home Sales data later in the week, will be important for gauging the resilience of economic activity. While the Federal Reserve is currently on hold, any further commentary from officials will be analyzed for shifts in their assessment of the balance between supporting growth and ensuring inflation expectations remain anchored, especially with Treasury Secretary Bessent highlighting the need to address the debt limit by mid-July. The ongoing discussions around the expiration of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will also begin to feature more prominently.Technically, after last week's strong rally which saw the S&P 500 recover its post-"Liberation Day" losses and the Nasdaq enter a bull market, major U.S. indices are testing key resistance levels. A period of consolidation above these levels or further upside follow-through would be constructive for confirming a bottom and a potential new uptrend. We will be closely watching if market leadership continues to broaden beyond the initial tech-led rebound. The key for goal-oriented investors is to remain focused on a well-diversified strategy, using rebalancing to align portfolios with long-term objectives, while acknowledging that periodic volatility related to policy shifts should still be expected.Consider sharing this analysis with others who might find it valuable.To continue receiving our in-depth analysis and insights focused on the U.S. economy, stocks and sectors, please subscribe to our newsletter.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.Join the official LINE account of "Joe’s Wall Street Pulse" now to receive the latest column updates (click here to join)

繼上週市場波動性上漲後，分歧與數據將影響市場趨勢Joe Lu, CFA 2025年5月9日 美東時間本新聞通訊僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議或買賣任何證券或資產類別的推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期為止的觀點，並可能隨時更改，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊係基於從據信可靠來源獲得的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現不代表未來結果。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決定前，應諮詢自己的財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論資產或資產類別的部位。一周市場觀點美國股市上週設法上揚，標普500指數上漲+1.05%，那斯達克綜合指數則上漲+1.31%。儘管這些漲幅反映了市場在強勁的四月份就業報告推助下，部分消化了先前因關稅引發的波動，但它們仍發生在既有的負面技術趨勢框架內。我們仍認為，這些潛在的負面趨勢仍是主要的技術考量因素，並將受到下週將公布的關鍵經濟數據和美國聯準會溝通的嚴峻考驗。市場目前正處於一個轉捩點，必須果斷突破阻力以確認新的正向軌跡，否則先前的謹慎立場將重新確立。上週我們焦點列表中主要美國企業的表現，反映了這種選擇性的市場環境。微軟 (Microsoft Corp) (+3.13%) 和特斯拉 (Tesla Inc) (+6.32%) 等關鍵成長股的顯著漲幅表明，即使在普遍的不確定性中，特定機會依然存在。然而，持續的企業財報內容，日益受到關稅衝擊擔憂的影響，突顯了企業所面臨的不利因素，而明確的前瞻性指引對於個股趨勢能否確立信心至關重要。我們對基本經濟狀況的評估顯示經濟循環週期已進入後期。極為負面的投資存續期間展望和負面的企業獲利預期，皆發出顯著的謹慎訊號。相較於正面的通膨壓力及中性的消費者信心，此格局強化了經濟正處於成長放緩伴隨持續通膨的艱難階段的點觀。我們預期，消費者支出模式（尤其是在任何因關稅引發的提前採購之後）以及關稅相關成本的實際轉嫁程度，將是未來幾個月影響經濟動能和市場趨勢的關鍵因素。上週美國各類股的表現提供了重要訊號。公用事業 (+1.40%) 等防禦型類股的相對強勢，證實了投資者持續的謹慎態度。儘管資訊科技 (+2.16%) 和工業 (+2.95%) 類股錄得上漲，但它們能否確立相對於防禦型領域的持續領先地位，將是判斷持久的風險偏好轉變是否正在發生的關鍵指標。我們預期，真正的市場信心將透過果斷且廣泛地轉動至週期性類股來展現，而此現象尚未持續出現。國際股市上週表現迥異，歐洲股市 (+1.98%) 和日本股市 (+1.18%) 持續展現正向趨勢特性，表明若美國市場不確定性持續，它們或可提供更穩定的回報潛力。中國股市 (+3.22%) 上週表現強勁，但必須克服其整體的負面趨勢。關鍵的跨資產訊號需要密切監控：美元指數走強 (+0.33%)，若此趨勢持續，將對國際市場回報和大宗商品價格構成壓力。WTI原油（透過USO追蹤）相對於其負面趨勢的表現 (+3.24%)，以及黃金的上漲 (+3.15%) 和比特幣的反彈 (+6.75%)，本週將受到全球風險偏好和通膨預期轉變的考驗。一周重點摘要繼上週小幅上漲（標普500指數 +1.05%）後，美國股市本週將面臨關鍵考驗，近期的反彈行情能否克服普遍的負面技術趨勢，抑或在即將公布的關鍵經濟數據和美國聯準會評論下確認其持續性，將見分曉。上週債券市場的強勁表現顯示市場對投資存續期間的情緒發生轉變；本週的聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議對於確認或挑戰市場目前對政策路徑的解讀至關重要。上週觀察到的顯著跨資產分歧——特別是美元走強（+0.33%）伴隨股市的正向表現，以及大宗商品（WTI原油 +3.24%，黃金 +3.15%）走勢迥異——表明市場存在潛在複雜性，需要仔細釐清以確立明確的方向性偏好。本週我們的焦點列表調整，包括新增資訊科技類股和標普500指數等，反映了技術性考驗在即的領域，而移除印度股市和原油避險部位則突顯了趨勢清晰度的轉變。展望未來，我們預期即將公布的通膨（CPI）和零售銷售數據，加上聯準會明確的政策訊號，將對形塑市場趨勢以及判斷上週暫時的風險偏好行為能否獲得可持續的動能具有決定性作用。本週焦點本週，我們的焦點集中在黃金和比特幣，因為在持續的關稅衝擊和全球尋求美元替代方案的背景下，它們的技術型態為市場對美國聯準會潛在的流動性操作提供了重要洞見。即使沒有明確的降息，任何市場對為抵禦衰退訊號而採取的「隱形量化寬鬆」的解讀，都可能助長通膨預期。這樣的環境幾乎肯定有利於黃金等傳統通膨避險工具以及比特幣等替代價值儲存工具，從而強化其既有或新興的正向趨勢。從我們的角度來看，黃金（上週上漲+3.15%）已重現強勢，守穩於關鍵支撐之上，並與其整體的正向趨勢一致。我們預期，果斷突破近期阻力將確認此既有上升趨勢的持續，特別是在地緣政治緊張局勢提供支撐背景，且據稱主權實體持續將儲備多元化的情況下。比特幣（上週反彈+6.75%）已展現強勁的重新向上動能，果斷推升其價格並確認其強勁的正向趨勢。我們預測，若能在強勁交易量的配合下持續突破近期高點，將顯示其上升趨勢的強力延續，既反映了在有利流動性環境下對風險資產的偏好，也體現了其作為非主權價值儲存工具的吸引力。展望未來，黃金和比特幣既有的正向趨勢預計將持續，並對本週即將公布的通膨數據以及市場對美國聯準會政策訊號的解讀高度敏感。若經濟數據和聯準會的評論強化了對持續通膨壓力伴隨寬鬆流動性背景的預期，這兩種資產都處於有利地位，可望延續技術性強勢。儘管任何出乎意料的鷹派訊號都可能帶來短期波動，但黃金和比特幣的潛在技術面和主題性支撐表明，其正向趨勢很可能持續。因此，黃金維持其上升軌跡以及比特幣創下新高，是我們預期觀察的關鍵技術確認。焦點列表重點本週的焦點列表突顯了那些在上週的技術發展後，為近期前景設定了有趣情境的資產。下表概述了這些關鍵領域：焦點列表調整根據我們對不斷演變的技術訊號的評估，並比較重點資產（E欄中模型百分比 > 0者）與前一週的資產，本週焦點列表作出以下調整：本週移除資產：本週新增資產：繼上週美國聯準會對關稅衝擊和成長擔憂的評論嚴重影響市場情緒後，我們未來一週的焦點將完全轉向美國貿易政策、即將公布的關鍵經濟數據以及聯準會不斷演變的反應之間的相互作用。我們預期，任何關於貿易的新發展或言論都將受到高度審視，特別是考慮到官方警告稱關稅可能加劇通膨並阻礙成長。「依賴數據」的聯準會將密切關注消費者韌性能否在謹慎的商業情緒下得以持續的跡象。技術面上，主要美股指數仍處於既有的負面趨勢。上週的漲幅雖然顯著，但並未突破這些趨勢，更多的是對上方阻力的測試。本週的關鍵問題是，市場能否在此次反彈的基礎上建立可持續的正向趨勢，或者賣壓是否會重現，從而確認先前下跌趨勢的主導地位。持續的債務上限談判很可能成為一個日益重要的因素，隨著財政部長Bessent七月中旬的最後期限臨近，其可能為市場注入相當大的波動性。我們將密切監控本週的關鍵經濟數據發布，特別是週二的四月份消費者物價指數（CPI）和週四的四月份零售銷售數據。這些報告對於形塑通膨預期和評估真實的消費者力道至關重要，可能驗證或反駁停滯性通膨的擔憂。市場領漲力道也將是一個關鍵的風向球：若持續轉動至週期性類股，將代表投資者信心增強以及負面趨勢可能出現突破；反之，若市場重新偏好防禦型類股，則表明謹慎情緒持續且趨勢將延續。任何來自美國聯準會官員的進一步評論都將至關重要，因為我們試圖解讀貨幣政策的可能路徑。我們預期，關鍵跨資產分歧——例如強勢美元相對於國際股市表現，以及大宗商品價格相對於成長預期的走勢——的解決，將為未來市場方向和趨勢持續性提供重要線索。立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。 Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。 Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。Markets Poised for Policy Clarity as Technical Rebound Faces Fed TestDivergences and Data to Shape Market Trends Following Last Week's Volatile GainsJoe Lu, CFA May 9, 2025This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.MARKET PERSPECTIVEU.S. equity markets managed to advance last week, with the S&P 500 Index gaining +1.05% and the Nasdaq Composite adding +1.31%. While these gains reflect some absorption of earlier tariff-induced volatility, facilitated by a strong April jobs report, they occurred within the framework of established negative technical trends. We maintain that these underlying negative trends remain the dominant technical consideration and will be significantly tested by the crucial economic data and Federal Reserve communications scheduled for the upcoming week. The market is now at a juncture where it must either confirm a new positive trajectory by decisively breaking resistance or see the prior cautionary stance reasserted.Performance among prominent U.S. companies on our Focus List last week was indicative of this selective environment. Notable gains in key growth names like Microsoft Corp (+3.13%) and Tesla Inc (+6.32%) suggest that specific opportunities persist even amidst broader uncertainty. However, the ongoing corporate earnings narrative, increasingly colored by concerns over tariff impacts, underscores the headwinds companies face, and clear forward guidance will be essential for individual stock trends to emerge with conviction.Our assessment of underlying economic conditions points to a late-cycle environment. The strongly negative Investment Duration outlook and negative Corporate Earnings expectations signal significant caution. Juxtaposed with positive Inflation pressure and neutral Consumer Strength, this configuration reinforces the view that the economy is navigating the challenging phase of slowing growth alongside persistent inflation. We anticipate that consumer spending patterns, especially following any tariff-driven front-loading, and the actual pass-through of tariff-related costs will be critical factors influencing economic momentum and market trends in the coming months.U.S. sector performance last week provided important signals. The relative strength of defensive sectors like Utilities (+1.40%) confirms ongoing investor caution. While Information Technology (+2.16%) and Industrials (+2.95%) posted gains, their ability to establish sustained leadership over defensive areas will be a key indicator of whether a durable risk-on shift is underway. We expect true market conviction to be revealed by a decisive and broad rotation into cyclical sectors, which has yet to materialize with persistence.International equity markets showed varied results last week, with Europe Equities (+1.98%) and Japan Equities (+1.18%) continuing to exhibit positive trend characteristics, suggesting they may offer more stable return potential if U.S. market uncertainty continues. China Equities (+3.22%) had a strong week but must overcome its negative overall trend. Critical cross-asset signals require close monitoring: the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened (+0.33%), which, if persistent, will act as a headwind for international returns and commodity prices. The behavior of WTI Crude Oil (+3.24% via USO) against its negative trend, alongside Gold's gain (+3.15%) and Bitcoin's rally (+6.75%), will be tested by shifts in global risk appetite and inflation expectations this week.EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFollowing last week's modest gains (S&P 500 +1.05%), U.S. equity markets are positioned for a critical test this week, where the recent rebound will either overcome prevailing negative technical trends or confirm their persistence against key upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve commentary.The bond market's strong performance last week indicated a shift in sentiment regarding investment duration; this week's FOMC meeting is set to be pivotal in affirming or challenging the market's current interpretation of the policy path.Significant cross-asset divergences observed last week—notably a stronger U.S. Dollar (+0.33%) alongside positive equity performance, and disparate moves in commodities (WTI Crude Oil +3.24%, Gold +3.15%)—signal underlying market complexities that require careful resolution to establish a clear directional bias.Our Focus List adjustments this week, including additions like Information Technology and the S&P 500 Index, reflect areas where technical tests are imminent, while the removal of India Equities and Crude Oil Hedges underscores shifts in trend clarity.Looking ahead, we anticipate that upcoming inflation (CPI) and retail sales data, together with explicit Fed policy signals, will be decisive in shaping market trends and determining if last week's tentative risk-on behavior can gain sustainable traction.HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEEKThis week, our highlight focuses on Gold and Bitcoin, as their technical postures offer significant insights into market reactions to perceived Federal Reserve liquidity operations amidst ongoing tariff impacts and a global search for U.S. dollar alternatives. Even without explicit rate cuts, any market perception of "stealth QE" to counteract recessionary signals is likely to fuel inflationary expectations. Such an environment will almost certainly benefit traditional inflation hedges like Gold and alternative stores of value like Bitcoin, reinforcing their existing or emerging positive trends.From our perspective, Gold (which gained +3.15% last week) has shown renewed strength, holding above critical support and aligning with its positive overall trend. We anticipate that a decisive move through near-term resistance will confirm the continuation of this established uptrend, especially as geopolitical tensions provide a supportive backdrop and sovereign entities reportedly continue to diversify reserves. Bitcoin (which rallied +6.75% last week) has demonstrated strong renewed upward momentum, decisively pushing its price and confirming its strong positive trend. We expect a sustained breakout above recent highs, should it occur on robust volume, to signal a powerful continuation of its uptrend, reflecting both an appetite for risk assets in a supportive liquidity environment and its appeal as a non-sovereign store of value.Looking ahead, the established positive trends in Gold and Bitcoin are expected to persist and will be highly sensitive to upcoming inflation data and the market's interpretation of Federal Reserve policy signals this week. Should economic data and Fed commentary reinforce expectations of sustained inflationary pressures combined with an accommodative liquidity backdrop, both assets are well-positioned for continued technical strength. While any unexpectedly hawkish signals could introduce short-term volatility, the underlying technical and thematic supports for Gold and Bitcoin suggest their positive trends are likely to endure. Therefore, Gold maintaining its upward trajectory and Bitcoin achieving new highs are key technical confirmations we anticipate.FOCUS LIST HIGHLIGHTSThis week's Focus List highlights assets where last week's technical developments set up interesting scenarios for the near future. The table below outlines these key areas:FOCUS LIST ADJUSTMENTSBased on our evaluation of evolving technical signals and comparing highlighted assets (those with Model % > 0 in Column E) with those from the prior week, the following adjustments are made to the Focus List this week:Assets Removed This Week:Assets Added This Week:LOOKING AHEADFollowing a week where Federal Reserve commentary on tariff impacts and growth concerns heavily influenced sentiment, our focus for the upcoming week shifts squarely to the interplay between U.S. trade policy, critical upcoming economic data, and the Fed's evolving reaction function. We anticipate that any new developments or rhetoric on trade will be highly scrutinized, particularly given official warnings that tariffs could stoke inflation and impede growth. The "data-dependent" Fed will be closely watching for signs of whether consumer resilience can be sustained against cautious business sentiment.Technically, major U.S. indices remain in established negative trends. Last week's gains, while notable, did not break these trends and served more as a test of overhead resistance. The critical question for this week is whether markets can build on that rebound to forge a sustainable positive trend or if selling pressure will resume, confirming the dominance of the prior downtrends. The ongoing debt limit negotiations will likely become an increasingly significant factor, with the potential to inject considerable volatility as Treasury Secretary Bessent's mid-July deadline approaches.We will be intensely monitoring this week's key economic releases, particularly Tuesday's April Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Thursday's April Retail Sales data. These reports will be pivotal in shaping inflation expectations and assessing true consumer strength, potentially validating or refuting stagflationary concerns. Market leadership will also be a key tell: a sustained rotation towards cyclical sectors would signal growing investor conviction and a potential break of negative trends, whereas a renewed preference for defensives would indicate persistent caution and trend continuation. Any further commentary from Federal Reserve officials will be paramount as we attempt to decipher the likely path of monetary policy. We expect the resolution of key cross-asset divergences—such as the strong Dollar versus international equity performance, and commodity price movements relative to growth expectations—to provide important clues regarding future market direction and trend persistence.Join the official LINE account of "Joe’s Wall Street Pulse" now to receive the latest column updates (click here to join)

市場在經歷波動性上漲後，迎來關鍵一週；尋求政策清晰度Joe Lu, CFA 2025年4月29日 美東時間本新聞通訊僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議或買賣任何證券或資產類別的推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期為止的觀點，並可能隨時更改，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊係基於從據信可靠來源獲得的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現不代表未來結果。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決定前，應諮詢自己的財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論資產或資產類別的部位。一周市場觀點上週市場戲劇性地展現了多空交織的局面，為即將到來的關鍵一週奠定了複雜的基礎。股市急劇反彈（標普500指數 +5.18%，那斯達克指數 +6.97%），大致收復了先前因令人擔憂的第一季GDP萎縮 (-0.3%) 所引發的跌幅。貿易樂觀情緒的轉變，加上四月份就業報告強勁的表現，都為此波反彈帶來助力。然而，這發生在美股指數更廣泛的負面技術趨勢背景下，引發了對此波反彈可持續性的疑問，而本週的事件將對此進行考驗。固定收益市場的大漲（長期公債上週 +3.46%）以及相關的投資存續期間情緒改善是顯著的發展。這表明市場參與者可能正在消化通膨壓力緩解的預期，或重新調整對美國聯準會政策的預期。關鍵的考驗將於本週三的FOMC聲明及主席鮑爾的記者會上到來；他們的基調和評估對於驗證或挑戰市場在上週所觀察到的利率預期和存續期間偏好的明顯轉變至關重要。縱觀各資產類別，上週出現的幾項分歧值得未來密切關注。即使在股市和債市反彈之際，美元仍走強 (+0.81%)，這是一種略顯非典型的模式，若持續下去可能對國際資產構成壓力。此外，WTI原油價格的急跌 (-8.38%) 以及黃金 (-2.36%) 未能從顯著降低的殖利率中受益，顯示除了單純的風險偏好/避險情緒之外，還有其他因素對其造成影響，可能與特定的供需動態或與股市的反彈相衝突的更廣泛的經濟成長擔憂有關。上週美國各類股的表現突顯了對成長股（科技類股 +9.05%）的偏好，但也見到週期性類股，如工業類股 (+6.84%) 的參與，而防禦性類股，如必需消費品 (-0.50%) 則表現落後。這種內部動態將是本週需要重點監控的——領漲力道會否會進一步擴大，表明對復甦的信心，或者如果經濟數據或聯準會的評論令市場樂觀情緒失望，防禦性類股是否會收復失地？對即將公布的數據，特別是ISM服務業指數，市場的反應將提供線索。總體而言，上週的價格走勢雖然正面，但發生在整體趨勢偏空以及與企業獲利和消費者信心相關的基本經濟訊號令人擔憂的背景下，這形成了一個關鍵的轉折點，代表市場需要得到確認。本週密集的經濟數據和聯準會對外發布的資訊將帶來充足的機會，進而確認此轉折點，抑或可能逆轉上週樂觀走勢提供了。一周重點摘要市場上週上演強勁的逆勢反彈（標普500指數 +5.18%），從週中低點回升，但進入本週，美股主要指數的整體技術趨勢依然偏空。圍繞投資存續期間的市場情緒改善，恰逢上週債市大漲，為本週至關重要的聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議及鮑爾記者會奠定基礎，政策的確認將是關鍵。顯著的跨資產分歧依然存在（美元走強對比風險資產、油價/金價疲弱對比殖利率下降），需要得到解決，並可能預示著潛在的市場緊張局勢或機會。市場焦點密切轉向即將公布的服務業數據（週一ISM）、聯準會決策（週三）及隨後的聯準會官員談話（週五），以評估上週反彈的持續性並為近期前景提供指引。股市面臨的技術挑戰仍然是從反彈轉變為可持續的上升趨勢，使得即將到來的數據和聯準會的評論成為關鍵的潛在催化劑。焦點列表重點本週的焦點列表突顯了那些在上週的技術發展後，為近期前景設定了有趣情境的資產：標普500金融類股：上週上漲+3.39%。中性的技術評估顯示穩定性；若在本週的聯準會會議期間持續穩定，可能強化其韌性。標普500非必需消費品類股：（新加入）上週上漲+5.96%。改善中的週度動能即將面臨對消費者數據以及消費能力持續擔憂的考驗。標普500工業類股：（新加入）上週上漲+6.84%。若即將公布的製造業/服務業數據指向經濟穩定，則趨勢改善至中性可能得以加強。標普500必需消費品類股：（新加入）上週下跌-0.50%。惡化中的週度動能使其技術型態具有參考意義，可能作為本週風險偏好轉變的潛在指標。標普500通訊服務類股：（新加入）上週上漲+5.48%。新興的穩定性將受到市場對聯準會消息更廣泛反應和潛在波動性的考驗。標普500公用事業類股：上週上漲+1.15%。中性評估為防禦性部位提供基準；本週的相對表現可能預示風險偏好的轉變。歐洲股市：上週上漲+2.85%。持續的正向趨勢提供分散配置機會；若美元扭轉近期漲勢，其持續的強勢將值得注意。日本股市：上週上漲+3.12%。強勁的正向技術轉變需要確認；持續的優異表現可能預示著對非美國市場信心的加深。中國股市：上週上漲+1.49%。負面趨勢中的穩定動能需要催化劑；貿易發展仍是潛在轉變的關鍵。印度股市：上週上漲+0.13%。中性趨勢內的盤整等待觸發因素；更廣泛的新興市場情緒將具影響力。拉丁美洲股市：上週上漲+3.45%。若大宗商品價格穩定且全球增長擔憂消退，改善中的正向趨勢可能加速。那斯達克綜合指數：（新加入）上週上漲+6.97%。急劇的動能改善需要轉化為正向趨勢的轉變，以確認科技股領導地位的持續性。短期公債：上週價格上漲+0.47%。焦點仍在其對FOMC會議前後短期利率預期的訊號意義。原油避險部位：（新加入）上週上漲+14.59%。若本週基礎原油價格持續疲弱，將驗證此部位的配置。比特幣：上週反彈+2.75%。強勁的正向趨勢可作為投機風險偏好的晴雨表；其對聯準會消息的反應將具啟示性。黃金：上週下跌-2.36%。儘管殖利率下降但動能減弱，是一個值得關注的分歧；需要重拾上升動能以再次確立其避險地位的吸引力。農產品：上週下跌-0.63%。強勁的基本趨勢面臨短期盤整；持續的強勢對通膨前景具有影響。微軟 (Microsoft Corp)：（新加入）上週上漲+2.88%。負面趨勢中動能改善；需要進一步走強以確認技術性轉折。Meta Platforms Inc：（新加入）上週上漲+6.13%。趨勢改善至中性且動能強勁；持續的領導潛力取決於市場對成長的偏好。博通 (Broadcom Inc)：（新加入）上週上漲+5.25%。中性趨勢且動能強勁；其表現為半導體類股的健康狀況提供洞見。特斯拉 (Tesla Inc)：（新加入）上週飆升+18.57%。巨大的動能需要後續力道來確認可持續的復甦型態。波克夏海瑟威 (Berkshire Hathaway Inc)：上週上漲+2.39%。持續的正向趨勢提供穩定性的基線；持續走強將具建設性。摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase & Co)：上週上漲+3.83%。中性評估顯示穩定性；作為關鍵金融領頭羊，在聯準會事件風險前後值得關注。焦點列表調整根據我們對上週演變中技術訊號的評估，本週生效以下調整：中期公債：（移除）上週價格上漲+1.94%。基於當前標準，不再將其列為重點，表明焦點可能轉向殖利率曲線的其他部分，具體取決於本週聯準會的訊號。本週新增的資產反映了上週的市場活動在某些領域創造了值得注意的技術情境——無論是顯著的動能轉變、新興的穩定性，還是相對強弱——使它們成為未來需要重點監控的領域。展望未來在上週股市於矛盾經濟訊號中急劇反彈後，即將到來的一週對市場而言是一個關鍵的考驗。焦點集中在確認反彈的持續性，特別是主要美股指數的技術面貌是否最終能夠轉為正向。密集的經濟數據發佈將提供了更多潛在的催化劑，首先是週一的ISM服務業報告，它為非製造業經濟提供了重要觀察視角。而週二公布的三月份美國貿易逆差數據，將在被扭曲的第一季GDP數據之後，為貿易流動提供了進一步的背景資訊。核心事件是週三的FOMC政策決策及主席鮑爾的記者會。市場將密切剖析其發表的聲明和評論，以驗證上週在債券市場觀察到趨向寬鬆的利率預期的轉變。任何偏離鴿派預期的情況都可能迅速挑戰近期的反彈。隨後的數據發布，如初次請領失業金人數（週四）以及週五多位聯準會官員的談話，將進一步塑造政策預期並考驗市場情緒。上週反彈期間在5500點（標普500指數）建立的關鍵技術水平將是重要的觀察點。主要指數能否守住近期的漲幅，並突破與其負面潛在趨勢相關的阻力水平？若未能如此，可能暗示上週僅僅是一次性的逆勢反彈。此外，解決上週觀察到的顯著跨資產分歧——特別是美元走強、油價疲弱和黃金反應平淡——對於衡量未來幾週潛在的市場信心和方向至關重要。採用系統性的方法來解讀這些資訊流仍然是關鍵。立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。 Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。 Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。Focus Shifts to Fed Policy and Economic Data After Rebound Tests Technical ResistanceKey Week Ahead for Markets Following Volatile Gains; Policy Clarity SoughtJoe Lu, CFA April 29, 2025This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.MARKET PERSPECTIVELast week provided a dramatic illustration of market crosscurrents, setting a complex stage for the pivotal week ahead. Equities rebounded sharply (S&P 500 +5.18%, Nasdaq +6.97%), largely erasing earlier losses spurred by a concerning Q1 GDP contraction (-0.3%). This recovery was fueled by shifting narratives around trade optimism and culminating in relief from a strong April jobs report. However, this occurred within a broader negative technical trend for U.S. indices, raising questions about the rally's sustainability which will be tested by this week’s events.The sharp rally in fixed income (Long-Term Treasuries +3.46% last week) and the associated improvement in investment duration sentiment were significant developments. This suggests market participants are perhaps pricing in easing inflation pressures or recalibrating expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The critical test arrives this Wednesday with the FOMC statement and Chair Powell's press conference; their tone and assessment will be crucial in validating or challenging the market's apparent shift in rate expectations and duration appetite observed last week.Looking across asset classes, several divergences emerged last week that warrant close attention moving forward. The U.S. Dollar strengthened (+0.81%) even as equities and bonds rallied, a somewhat atypical pattern that could pressure international assets if it persists. Furthermore, the sharp plunge in WTI Crude Oil (-8.38%) and the failure of Gold (-2.36%) to benefit from significantly lower yields suggest factors beyond simple risk-on/risk-off sentiment are at play, potentially related to specific supply/demand dynamics or broader economic growth concerns that conflict with the equity market rebound.The performance within U.S. sectors last week highlighted a preference for growth (Technology +9.05%), but also saw participation from cyclicals like Industrials (+6.84%), while defensives like Consumer Staples (-0.50%) lagged. This internal dynamic will be important to monitor this week – will leadership broaden further, indicating conviction in the recovery, or will defensive sectors regain ground if economic data or Fed commentary disappoints market optimism? The reaction to incoming data, particularly ISM Services, will provide clues.Ultimately, last week’s price action, while positive, occurred against a backdrop of negative overall trends and concerning underlying economic signals related to corporate profitability and consumer strength. This sets up a critical juncture where the market needs confirmation. The substantial calendar of economic data and Fed communication this week provides ample opportunity for such confirmation or a potential reversal of last week's optimistic moves.EXECUTIVE SUMMARYMarkets staged a strong counter-trend rally last week (S&P 500 +5.18%), recovering from mid-week lows but still facing negative overall technical trends for major U.S. indices heading into this week.Improving sentiment around investment duration coincided with a bond market surge last week, setting the stage for this week's crucial FOMC meeting and Powell press conference where policy validation will be key.Significant cross-asset divergences persist (stronger Dollar vs. risk assets, weak Oil/Gold vs. falling yields), requiring resolution and potentially signaling underlying market tensions or opportunities.Focus shifts intently to upcoming service sector data (ISM Mon), the Fed decision (Wed), and subsequent Fedspeak (Fri) to gauge the durability of last week's rebound and inform the near-term outlook.The technical challenge remains for equities to transition from rebound to a sustainable positive trend, making upcoming data and Fed commentary critical potential catalysts.FOCUS LIST HIGHLIGHTSThis week's Focus List highlights assets where last week's technical developments set up interesting scenarios for the near future:S&P 500 Financials Sector: Gained +3.39% last week. Its neutral technical assessment suggests stability; continued stability through this week's Fed meeting could reinforce its resilience.S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector: (New Addition) Advanced +5.96% last week. Improving weekly momentum faces a test from upcoming consumer data and ongoing concerns about spending power.S&P 500 Industrials Sector: (New Addition) Rose +6.84% last week. Improvement to a neutral trend could strengthen if upcoming manufacturing/services data points towards economic stabilization.S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector: (New Addition) Declined -0.50% last week. Deteriorating weekly momentum makes its technical pattern relevant as a potential indicator of shifting risk preferences this week.S&P 500 Communication Services Sector: (New Addition) Advanced +5.48% last week. Emerging stability will be tested by broader market reaction to Fed news and potential volatility.S&P 500 Utilities Sector: Rose +1.15% last week. Neutral assessment provides a benchmark for defensive positioning; relative performance this week could signal risk appetite shifts.Europe Equities: Gained +2.85% last week. Persistent positive trend offers diversification; its continued strength would be notable if the US Dollar reverses its recent gains.Japan Equities: Advanced +3.12% last week. Strongly positive technical shift needs confirmation; sustained outperformance could signal deepening conviction in non-US markets.China Equities: Gained +1.49% last week. Stable momentum within a negative trend requires a catalyst; trade developments remain key for a potential shift.India Equities: Rose +0.13% last week. Consolidation within a neutral trend awaits a trigger; broader emerging market sentiment will be influential.Latin America Equities: Gained +3.45% last week. Improving positive trend could accelerate if commodity prices stabilize and global growth fears subside.Nasdaq Composite: (New Addition) Gained +6.97% last week. Sharp momentum improvement needs to translate into a positive trend shift to confirm tech leadership durability.Short-Term Treasury Bonds: Prices rose +0.47% last week. Focus remains on its signaling for near-term rate expectations ahead of and following the FOMC meeting.Crude Oil Hedges: (New Addition) Gained +14.59% last week. Continued weakness in underlying crude oil prices this week would validate this positioning.Bitcoin: Rallied +2.75% last week. Strong positive trend acts as a barometer for speculative risk appetite; its reaction to Fed news will be telling.Gold: Declined -2.36% last week. Weakening momentum despite falling yields is a divergence to watch; needs to reclaim upward momentum to reaffirm its haven status appeal.Agricultural Commodities: Declined -0.63% last week. Strong underlying trend faces near-term consolidation; continued strength has implications for inflation outlook.Microsoft Corp: (New Addition) Gained +2.88% last week. Improved momentum within a negative trend; needs further strength to confirm a technical turn.Meta Platforms Inc: (New Addition) Rose +6.13% last week. Improvement to neutral with strong momentum; continued leadership potential depends on market's growth appetite.Broadcom Inc: (New Addition) Added +5.25% last week. Neutral trend with strong momentum; performance offers insights into semiconductor sector health.Tesla Inc: (New Addition) Surged +18.57% last week. Substantial momentum needs follow-through to confirm a sustainable recovery pattern.Berkshire Hathaway Inc: Advanced +2.39% last week. A sustained positive trend provides a baseline of stability; continued strength would be constructive.JPMorgan Chase & Co: Rose +3.83% last week. Neutral assessment suggests stability; key financial bellwether to watch around Fed event risk.FOCUS LIST ADJUSTMENTSBased on our evaluation of evolving technical signals from last week, the following adjustment is made effective this week:Intermediate-Term Treasury Bonds: (Removed) Prices rose +1.94% last week. It is no longer highlighted based on current criteria, suggesting focus may shift elsewhere on the curve depending on this week's Fed signals.Assets added this week reflect areas where last week's action created notable technical situations—either significant momentum shifts, emerging stability, or relative strength/weakness—setting them up as key areas to monitor going forward.LOOKING AHEADThis upcoming week presents a critical test for the market following last week's sharp rebound amidst conflicting economic signals. Focus intensifies on confirming the rally's durability, particularly whether the technical picture for major U.S. indices can finally turn positive. The dense economic calendar provides numerous potential catalysts, starting with Monday's ISM Services report, which offers a vital look at the non-manufacturing economy. The March U.S. trade deficit (Tuesday) provides further context on trade flows following the Q1 GDP distortions.The centerpiece is Wednesday's FOMC policy decision and Chair Powell's press conference. The market will parse the statement and commentary intensely for validation of the shift towards easing rate expectations observed in the bond market last week. Any deviation from dovish expectations could quickly challenge the recent rally. Subsequent data points like Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday) and a host of Fed speakers on Friday will further shape policy expectations and test market sentiment.Key technical levels established at 5500 (on the S&P 500) during last week's rally will be important to watch. Can major indices hold their recent gains and push through resistance levels associated with their negative underlying trends? Failure to do so could suggest last week was merely a counter-trend bounce. Furthermore, resolving the significant cross-asset divergences observed last week—particularly the stronger Dollar, weaker Oil, and muted Gold response—will be crucial for gauging underlying market conviction and direction in the weeks ahead. A systematic approach to interpreting this flow of information remains paramount.Join the official LINE account of "Joe’s Wall Street Pulse" now to receive the latest column updates (click here to join)