【Joe’s華爾街脈動】市場觀望週末美中貿易談判，股市原地踏步

關鍵談判前夕市場謹慎；川普暗示中國關稅水平

Joe Lu, CFA 2025年5月9日 美東時間

市場概況

美國股市週五在震盪交投中，標普500指數和道瓊指數微幅收低，那斯達克指數則收平，因投資者在本週末美中官員預計於瑞士舉行備受矚目的貿易談判前採取謹慎立場。市場焦點緊盯任何有關潛在關稅調整的訊號，尤其是在川普總統於社群媒體上表示「對中國徵收80%關稅看起來合理」之後。儘管這代表著較目前145%的稅率顯著降低，但仍屬高額徵稅，且或許高於部分市場參與者對重啟談判起點的期望。總統本週稍早，在美英初步協議達成後發表的「許多貿易協議正在醞釀中，都是好的（很棒的！）協議！」的言論，最初帶來了一些樂觀情緒。然而，針對中國所提及的80%稅率，則讓樂觀氣氛有所收斂。

主要美股指數反映了這種觀望態度。道瓊工業平均指數下跌-0.29%。標普500指數微跌-0.07%，而以科技股為主的那斯達克綜合指數收盤基本持平 (0.00%)。本週來看，三大主要平均指數均小幅收黑，標普500指數下跌約0.5%，那斯達克指數約下跌0.3%，道瓊指數則下跌近0.2%。這表明儘管在貿易方面取得的一些進展（如英美協議）受到歡迎，但更廣泛的不確定性，特別是圍繞美中關係，持續打壓投資者情緒。

市場策略師指出，儘管本週在英美協議上的進展令人鼓舞，但在貿易政策出現更實質且可量化的結果之前，市場仍處於「消息面起伏不定」的時期，導致反應性的波動。即將在瑞士由財政部長Scott Bessent主導的會談，被視為一個關鍵的轉折點。白宮新聞秘書Karoline Leavitt隨後澄清，對中國關稅80%的數字是川普總統「隨口提出的」，在週末討論之前不會設定最終稅率。這種持續的不確定性也反映在企業情緒上，富國銀行指出，儘管本季撤回財測的公司數量出乎意料地少，但關稅衝擊仍然是一個關鍵擔憂。

重點摘要

• 主要美股指數在投資者等待關鍵美中貿易談判之際，週五經歷震盪交易後普遍收低：標普500指數 (-0.07%)，道瓊工業平均指數 (-0.29%)，那斯達克綜合指數 (0.00%)。
• 川普總統在會談前表示，「對中國徵收80%關稅看起來合理」，此數字雖較145%有所緩和，但仍高於部分市場對談判起點的預期。
• 儘管當日收盤漲跌互見，根據分析，潛在的近期市場特性普遍仍屬不利；主要指數本週小幅收黑。
• 多數類股收低，其中必需消費品類股 (-0.58%) 和醫療保健類股 (-1.09%) 表現最為疲弱。公債價格溫和上漲。
• 所有目光都集中在美國財政部長Bessent與其中國代表本週末在瑞士舉行的貿易會談結果。

主要市場指數

主要市場指數週五漲跌互見，變化不大，因投資者靜待週末美中貿易談判結果明朗化。標普500指數微跌-0.07%，道瓊工業平均指數下跌-0.29%。那斯達克綜合指數收盤持平 (0.00%)。代表小型股的羅素2000指數下跌-0.18%。盤勢平淡且略微收低，為主要平均指數本週的小幅虧損劃下句點，突顯投資者持續的謹慎態度。

費城半導體指數當日上漲+0.80%，表現優於整體市場，但根據底層分析，在多個時間區間內其潛在狀況仍屬不利。

從分析角度來看，今日漲跌互見且整體盤勢平淡，對於改變潛在的近期市場特性作用不大。根據我們基於近期趨勢比較的分析，該特性普遍仍屬不利。儘管市場已展現出對正面頭條消息作出反應的能力，但根據我們的指標，潛在狀況尚未出現持續性改善的跡象。

美國前十大公司

美國大型企業週五表現好壞參半，反映出在關鍵貿易談判前夕，整體市場猶豫不決的基調。

觀察個股當日表現：特斯拉 (Tesla Inc) 強勁上漲，漲幅達+4.72%。博通 (Broadcom Inc) 亦上揚，漲幅為+0.21%，微軟 (Microsoft Corp) (+0.13%)、波克夏海瑟威B股 (Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B) (+0.10%) 和亞馬遜 (Amazon.com Inc) (+0.51%) 亦同步上漲。相較之下，蘋果 (Apple Inc) 下跌-1.81%。輝達 (NVIDIA Corp) 下跌-0.61%。Meta Platforms Inc 下滑-0.92%，Alphabet Inc A股 (Alphabet Inc Class A) 則下跌-0.99%。摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase & Co) 收盤微跌-0.15%。

從底層分析訊號來看，儘管今日部分個股價格走勢正面，但我們的分析指標指出這些領先企業中大多數的近期市場特性仍偏向疲弱或中性。市場仍在尋求更明確的訊號，以轉變這些具影響力股票的潛在趨勢面貌。

經濟指標

今日市場焦點幾乎全面集中在即將到來的美中貿易談判以及川普總統關於潛在關稅水平的相關言論，而非美國國內最新發布的經濟數據。包括理事Michael Barr和紐約聯準銀行總裁John Williams在內的美國聯準會官員重申警告，稱川普總統的關稅預計將導致今年通膨上升、失業率升高及經濟成長放緩。這與聯準會主席鮑爾本週稍早釋出的謹慎基調相呼應。

我們整套經濟指標持續反映出這些謹慎因素。分析顯示，投資存續期間的訊號仍為中度不利，表明在政策不確定性下，市場持續偏好較短的投資期限。消費者信心訊號亦持續疲弱。從市場分析推估出的企業獲利前景依然不利。今日通膨訊號為中性，但聯準會官員對關稅引發通膨的警示使該變數仍為市場關注的核心風險之一。貿易政策、其對經濟的衝擊以及美國聯準會的反應之間的相互作用，仍然是主導市場展望的關鍵。

類股概況

標準普爾500指數各類股週五表現大多為負且平淡，反映出在週末貿易談判前夕投資者的謹慎情緒。

能源類股 (+1.00%) 表現突出，可能受油價和天然氣價格上漲推動。工業類股 (+0.08%) 和公用事業類股 (+0.17%) 微幅上漲。通訊服務類股 (-0.51%)、非必需消費品類股 (+0.48%)、金融類股 (0.00% - 持平)、資訊科技類股 (0.00% - 持平) 和房地產類股 (+0.67%) 呈現漲跌互見至持平的表現。表現最疲弱的是防禦型領域，必需消費品類股 (-0.58%) 和醫療保健類股 (-1.09%) 跌幅最大。原物料類股 (+0.26%) 亦微幅收紅。

從分析角度來看，我們分析所顯示的多數類股潛在近期狀況仍為不利或中性。今日漲跌互見且大多為負的表現，對於改變此評估作用不大。市場似乎在等待更明確的貿易消息，然後才會在類股領漲方面做出更廣泛的方向性投入。

國際市場

國際市場週五表現好壞參半，全球投資者亦等待美中貿易商談的結果。美元微幅走弱，當日下跌-0.29%。

已開發市場漲跌互見：歐洲股市下跌-0.37%，而日本股市則上漲+0.25%。這些市場對美國貿易政策的言論與潛在結果仍然敏感。分析持續顯示，從較長期觀察來看，這些地區的潛在正向特徵正在增強。

新興市場亦呈現不同結果：新興亞洲市場上漲+0.79%，印度上漲+1.65%，拉丁美洲上漲+0.67%。中國股市下跌-0.37%。

其他資產

週五其他資產類別的活動反映了市場在週末貿易談判前的謹慎觀望態度。債券需求溫和，大宗商品表現好壞參半，美元則微幅走低。

固定收益方面，美國公債價格微幅上漲。短期公債價格上漲+0.05%，中期公債價格上漲+0.07%，長期公債價格上漲+0.15%。整體美國綜合債券價格上漲+0.10%。這表明存在一些避險需求或為潛在市場波動進行的部位調整。

大宗商品表現好壞參半。WTI原油上漲+1.54%。黃金價格上漲+0.73%。農產品上漲+0.41%。然而，基本金屬下跌-0.77%。美元指數走弱，下跌-0.29%。在數位資產方面，比特幣價格上漲+1.80%。

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關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

Markets Tread Water as Investors Eye Weekend U.S.-China Trade Talks

Caution Prevails Ahead of Key Negotiations; Trump Hints at China Tariff Levels

Joe Lu, CFA May 9, 2025

MARKET OVERVIEW

U.S. equity markets finished a volatile session on Friday with modest losses for the S&P 500 and Dow, while the Nasdaq ended flat, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of highly anticipated trade negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials scheduled for this weekend in Switzerland. The market's attention was firmly fixed on any signals regarding potential tariff adjustments, especially after President Trump suggested on social media that an "80% Tariff on China seems right." While this represents a significant reduction from the current 145% rate, it remains a substantial levy and perhaps higher than what some market participants had hoped for as a starting point for renewed talks. The President's earlier comments in the week indicating "Many Trade Deals in the hopper, all good (GREAT!) ones!" following the preliminary U.S.-U.K. agreement, initially fostered some optimism, but the specific mention of an 80% rate for China introduced a more measured tone.

The major U.S. stock indices reflected this wait-and-see approach. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined -0.29%. The S&P 500 Index edged down -0.07%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index finished essentially unchanged (0.00%). For the week, all three major averages posted slight losses, with the S&P 500 down about 0.5%, the Nasdaq roughly 0.3% lower, and the Dow falling nearly 0.2%. This indicates that while some progress on trade (like the UK deal) was welcomed, broader uncertainties, particularly concerning the U.S.-China relationship, continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

Market strategists noted that while the progress on the U.K. deal this week was encouraging, the market remains in a period of "ebbs and flows of the news cycle," leading to reactive volatility until more tangible and calculable outcomes on trade policy emerge. The upcoming talks in Switzerland, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, are seen as a critical juncture. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later clarified that the 80% figure for China tariffs was a number President Trump "threw out there" and that no final rate would be set prior to the weekend discussions. This ongoing uncertainty is also reflected in corporate sentiment, with Wells Fargo noting that while a surprisingly small number of companies have withdrawn earnings guidance this season, tariff impacts remain a key concern.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Major U.S. indices finished a choppy session mostly lower as investors awaited key U.S.-China trade talks: S&P 500 Index (-0.07%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.29%), Nasdaq Composite (0.00%).
• President Trump suggested an "80% Tariff on China seems right" ahead of the talks, a de-escalation from 145% but still higher than some market expectations for negotiation starting points.
• Despite the day's mixed close, underlying near-term market character remained broadly unfavorable according to analysis; major indices posted slight losses for the week.
• Most sectors finished lower, with Consumer Staples (-0.58%) and Healthcare (-1.09%) among the weakest. Treasury prices gained modestly.
• All eyes are on the outcome of the weekend trade discussions in Switzerland between U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and his Chinese counterparts.

BROAD MARKET INDICES

Broad market indices finished mixed and little changed on Friday as investors awaited clarity from the weekend's U.S.-China trade negotiations. The S&P 500 Index edged down -0.07%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined -0.29%. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended the session flat (0.00%). The Russell 2000 Index, representing small-capitalization stocks, fell -0.18%. The subdued and slightly negative close capped a week of modest losses for the major averages, highlighting persistent investor caution.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index gained +0.80% on the day, outperforming the broader market but still facing an underlying unfavorable analytical picture across multiple timeframes.

From an analytical perspective, today's mixed and generally flat performance did little to alter the underlying near-term market character, which remained predominantly unfavorable according to our analysis based on recent trend comparisons. While the market has shown an ability to react to positive headlines, a sustained improvement in underlying conditions has yet to materialize according to our indicators.

TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIES

Performance among the largest U.S. companies was mixed on Friday, reflecting the broader market's indecisive tone ahead of the critical trade talks.

Looking at individual stock performance for the day: Tesla Inc posted a strong gain, rising +4.72%. Broadcom Inc also advanced, up +0.21%, as did Microsoft Corp (+0.13%), Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (+0.10%), and Amazon.com Inc (+0.51%). In contrast, Apple Inc fell -1.81%. NVIDIA Corp declined -0.61%. Meta Platforms Inc slipped -0.92%, and Alphabet Inc Class A was down -0.99%. JPMorgan Chase & Co finished slightly lower by -0.15%.

Interpreting the underlying analytical signals, the near-term market character for most of these leading companies remained unfavorable or neutral according to our indicators, despite some positive price moves today. The market continues to look for more definitive signals to shift the underlying trend picture for these influential stocks.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Today's market focus was overwhelmingly on the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and President Trump's commentary on potential tariff levels, rather than new domestic economic data releases. Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Michael Barr and New York Fed President John Williams, reiterated warnings that President Trump's tariffs are expected to lead to higher inflation, elevated unemployment, and slower economic growth this year. This echoes the cautious tone struck by Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier in the week.

Our suite of economic indicators continues to reflect elements of this caution. Analysis indicated the Investment Duration signal remained moderately unfavorable, suggesting a continued preference for shorter investment horizons amidst policy uncertainty. The Consumer Strength signal also stayed weak. The outlook for Corporate Earnings derived from market analysis remained unfavorable. The Inflation signal was neutral today, but the concerns voiced by Fed officials regarding tariff-induced inflation highlight this as a key risk. The interplay between trade policy, its economic impact, and the Federal Reserve's reaction remains central to the market outlook.

SECTOR OVERVIEW

Sector performance within the S&P 500 was mostly negative and subdued on Friday, reflecting the cautious investor sentiment ahead of the weekend's trade negotiations.

Energy (+1.00%) was a notable outperformer, likely driven by rising oil and natural gas prices. Industrials (+0.08%) and Utilities (+0.17%) managed slight gains. Communication Services (-0.51%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.48%), Financials (0.00% - flat), Information Technology (0.00% - flat), and Real Estate (+0.67%) showed mixed to flat performance. The weakest sectors were defensive areas, with Consumer Staples (-0.58%) and Healthcare (-1.09%) posting the largest declines. Materials (+0.26%) also finished slightly positive.

From an analytical perspective, the underlying near-term conditions indicated by our analysis remained unfavorable or neutral for most sectors. Today's mixed and mostly negative performance offers little to change that assessment. The market appears to be awaiting more definitive news on trade before committing to a broader directional move in sector leadership.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

International markets displayed mixed performance on Friday as global investors also awaited the outcome of the U.S.-China trade discussions. The U.S. Dollar weakened slightly, falling -0.29% for the day.

Developed markets were mixed: European equities fell -0.37% while Japanese equities gained +0.25%. These markets remain sensitive to the rhetoric and potential outcomes of U.S. trade policy. Analysis continues to indicate underlying strengthening positive characteristics for these regions over longer horizons.

Emerging markets also showed varied results: Emerging Markets Asia gained +0.79%, India rose +1.65%, and Latin America added +0.67%. Chinese equities fell -0.37%.

OTHER ASSETS

Activity across other asset classes on Friday reflected the market's cautious, wait-and-see approach ahead of the weekend trade talks. Bonds saw modest demand, while commodities were mixed and the dollar edged lower.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury prices registered slight gains. Short-term Treasury prices rose +0.05%, Intermediate Treasury prices gained +0.07%, and Long-term Treasury prices advanced +0.15%. Broad U.S. Aggregate Bond prices increased +0.10%. This suggests some flight to quality or positioning for potential market volatility.

Commodity performance was mixed. WTI Crude Oil gained +1.54%. Gold prices rose +0.73%. Agricultural Commodities added +0.41%. Base Metals, however, declined -0.77%. The US Dollar Index weakened, falling -0.29%. In digital assets, Bitcoin prices advanced +1.80%.

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