橋水基金創始人達利歐專訪：我們很可能站在大變革、大動盪的轉折點

近日，國際著名投資人、橋水基金創始人瑞·達利歐（Ray Dalio）接受了中國人民外交學會微信公眾號編輯部專訪，就世界形勢、國際格局重塑、全球南方、人工智慧等問題闡述了他的最新看法。

採訪詳情如下：

編輯：您曾經說過，“推動當前局勢變化的五大根本力量分別是：貨幣秩序的崩潰、政治秩序的動盪、地緣政治秩序的重塑、自然災害與技術變革”。那麼現在是否已經到了這五種力量同時發生作用的關鍵時期？

達利歐：是的。但我不喜歡發表沒有實證的觀點，因此傾向於通過量化因果關係來理解事物的運行機制及未來演變。我對這五大力量的量化分析表明，這五大力量均處於關鍵階段：前四項正在惡化，第五項也就是技術變革，將產生巨大影響——既可能產生非常積極的結果，也可能造成嚴重威脅。五種力量正在匯聚，有可能引發劇烈震盪。任何一種或兩種力量的劇烈變動都會引發巨大動盪。當前五大力量同時劇變，我們很可能站在了大變革、大動盪的轉折點。實際上這些劇變已初現端倪，人們對此已經有所感受，如何應對將決定事態走向。

編輯：面對此情此景，您最迫切希望給予中國、美國以及其他世界大國的忠告是什麼？

達利歐：我對中國、美國以及其他主要大國的建議是，應當關注：1) 通過研究反覆出現的歷史案例，理解上面提到的五大力量的運行機制。2) 將當前正在發生的事情視為需要合力解決的共同問題，並嘗試著在解決問題的過程中實現共贏。大家要一起努力，或許可以通過開展1.5軌對話，就如何應對諸如軍事衝突、經濟崩潰等最糟糕的情況達成基本的原則性共識。正視這些可能出現的糟糕問題並預先作出籌劃雖不能完全消除風險，但能顯著降低災難發生的機率及其破壞程度。

總之，對危機的深刻理解、提前預判以及務實合作，是唯一可行的出路。若上述做法均未奏效，則需做好最壞的打算。

編輯：人類應該怎樣做，才能實現對世界經濟政治版圖的最理性的重塑？

達利歐：理性重塑需要執政者理性決策。雖然人性難以改變，但可以通過向他們施加這樣那樣的影響，來獲得最終想要的結果。因此理解決策者的意圖，並使其更加理性、而不是更加衝動地看待和理解形勢，這很重要。國家之間互派理性的代表共同協商，執政者也能從善如流，這是最好的。

編輯：您在近期文章中提出，我們正處於一個典型的大周期變革之中，關稅爭端只是表象，若處理不當，將面臨“比經濟衰退更可怕的事情”。您預計這種“大周期變革”或“更可怕的事情”會持續多久？可能的結局有那些？您最期待什麼樣的結局？我們應該如何規避最壞的結局？

達利歐：對於大多數秩序，無論是貨幣秩序、國內政治秩序、還是國際地緣秩序，通常都很難預測它們發生變化的具體時間（但就像人體生病一樣，它會有一個上升、發展並呈現激烈衝突的階段，激烈衝突的時間大概是3年，隨後將會進入一個持續大約10至15年的艱難時期）。我推測最艱難的時期可能會在未來3到5年出現，但這只是根據一些並不精確的指標作出的推測。規避風險的關鍵在於讓決策者們瞭解歷史上類似的糟糕案例，並對當前形勢下發生類似情況可能導致的各種後果作出充分預判。我認為知識、邏輯與危機意識的結合，是防範災難的最佳保障。

編輯：多年來，您一直在向世人闡明您對世界變化的深刻洞見，並經常奔走於中美之間，推動兩國關係發展。您曾強調“許多美國人和中國人已經交織在一起，將他們分開幾乎對所有人來說都是可怕的事情。這種共同連結不僅有利於中美兩國人民，所產生的相互理解和相互影響也會促進全球的和平與進步”。是什麼驅動您把這些真實想法大膽地講出來？您是希望對世界產生直接的積極影響，還是更希望給未來留下一些不可磨滅的精神財富？

達利歐：我的目標是推動積極的變革。更確切地說，我的目標是與那些我關心的人建立良好的人際關係，促進跨黨派理解，興利除弊，並像資深的醫生那般，儘可能誠實、精準地把畢生所學傳下去。

編輯：您如何看待“全球南方”這一概念？“全球南方”國家在您所說的“大周期變革”中，應發揮怎樣的作用？在未來新的世界格局中，“全球南方”國家又將處於怎樣的地位？

達利歐：我認為”全球南方”涵蓋眾多差異顯著，但普遍欠發達的國家，它們承載著世界大多數人口。“全球南方”也好，“全球北方”也好，各國都有自己的價值體系和評判標準，將基於其內部政府運行機制自主作出決策。因此我不宜評判各國“應該”如何行動，但我個人認為一個最佳的世界秩序應具備廣泛的生產力、和平的環境、繁榮的經濟和良好的生態環境。

編輯：您將人工智慧視為人類歷史上最大的工業革命。您認為中美兩國應就人工智慧達成怎樣的“信任框架”，才能確保人工智慧的發展和大規模應用是有益、安全和公平的？您對中美在人工智慧領域的交流與合作是否持樂觀態度？是否認為人工智慧最終會威脅甚至取代人類?

達利歐：我對美中在人工智慧領域的合作持悲觀態度。因為雙方缺乏信任，並且對於可能爆發各種類型戰爭的恐懼不會很快消散，而人工智慧既是可以用於戰爭的強大武器，也是改善生活的有力工具。

CPIFA Exclusive Interviewwith Bridgewater Founder Ray Dalio: We Are at Likely on the Brink of Seismic Shifts

Recently, Mr. Ray Dalio, renowned investor and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, was exclusively interviewed by the WeChat public account editorial board of the Chinese People’s Institute of Foreign Affairs (CPIFA). Mr. Ray Dalio shared his latest views on world order, reshaping of world landscape, Global South and AI.

The details of the interview are as follows:

CPIFA Editor: You have stated that “the five big forces driving current circumstances are: 1) the breakdown of the monetary order, 2) internal political disorder, 3) the restructuring of the geopolitical order, 4) technological revolution, and 5) acts of nature.” Do you believe we are now at a critical juncture where all five forces are converging simultaneously?

Ray Dalio: Yes. But because I don't like to have unsubstantiated opinions I like to measure cause:effect relationships and use those measurements to see how things work and are likely to work in the future. My measurements of these five forces show that they are all at critical junctures, the first four are worsening and the fifth - technology - will have huge impacts that will probably be both very good and very bad, and all of these forces are converging which will probably lead to very big disruptions. Any one or two of these big forces making big changes creates big disruptions so, by my measures, with all five in big shifts, we are at likely on the brink of seismic shifts. In fact, it appears that we have begun them and are feeling them. How these situations are handled will have huge impacts in how events transpire.

CPIFA Editor: Given this landscape, what would be your most urgent advice to China, the United States, and other major global powers?

Ray Dalio: My advice to China, the United States and other major global powers is to focus on 1) understanding the mechanics of what is now happening by studying the mechanics of how these forces have repeatedly transpired throughout history and 2) treat what is now happening as a shared problem to be solved as a joint exercise to try to produce a win-win outcome. Work together, probably via track 1.5 dialogues, to try to agree on the ground rules for handling the worst possible situations - like military war and economic collapse, because staring at these terrible possibilities and planning for them would make these terrible possibilities less likely and less terrible when well planned for.

An understanding and fear of the problems and cooperation to solve them is the only possibly successful path forward. If that doesn’t work, preparing for the worst case scenarios is best.

CPIFA Editor: How can humanity to achieve the "most rational reshaping" of the world’s economic and political landscape?

Ray Dalio: Rational decision shaping requires rational people in positions of power. One can't change people's natures, though one can appeal to them in better and worse ways to get the desired outcomes. So understanding leader’s motivations and helping them approach the circumstances less emotionally and more rationally can help. Also, to the extent that countries can send rational people to meet each other to problem solve together and to the extent leaders listen to what they say, that is good.

CPIFA Editor: In your recent articles, you argued that we’re in a classic big cycle shift where tariffs are just a symptom and “I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.” How long do you anticipate this "big cycle shift" or possible “something worse than a recession”? What are the potential endgames, and which outcome do you view as most desirable? How should we avoid the bad situation?

Ray Dalio: As with most changes in orders such as changes in monetary orders, domestic political orders, and international geopolitical orders, it is difficult to say exactly when they will occur (though, like with any disease, there are clear signs of them intensifying, they typically evolve gradually and they are typically manifest intense conflict for about three years, that are followed by extended bad periods that typically last about 10-15 years.). I would guess that the most difficult time will come three to five years from now, but that is just a guess based on imprecise indicators. We should try to avoid the bad situation by making sure the decision making parties know what past analogous bad situations were like and imagining what the modern day versions of these would be like. I believe that knowledge, logic, and fear together is the best mix of influences to prevent very bad situations.

CPIFA Editor: Over the years, you have consistently shared profound insights on global shifts and actively bridged U.S.-China relations. You’ve stressed that "It is a reality that many Americans and Chinese are intertwined, and that separating them would be terrible for just about everyone. Besides the direct functional synergies of producing things together that benefit Americans, Chinese, and the rest of the world, these connections produce mutual understandings and mutual influences that promote peace and progress globally." What compels you to voice these ideas so boldly? Is your goal to create immediate positive change in today’s world, or to leave behind an enduring intellectual legacy for future generations?

Ray Dalio: My goal is to help create positive change. More precisely my goals are to have good relationships with people I care about, to help non-partisan mutual understandings, to help produce good outcomes and prevent bad ones, and to pass along what I have learned over many years as honestly and accurately as possible - much like an experienced doctor would do.

CPIFA Editor: How do you view the concept of the “Global South”? What role should these nations play in the “big cycle shifts” you describe, and where do you see the position of “Global South” countries in the emerging world order?

Ray Dalio: I view the “global south” to be a collection of very different, generally poor, countries where the majority of the world’s population is. Regarding what these nations and the nations of the “global north” “should” do is not for me to say because it is up to each nation to have its own values and weigh things to decide what it should do by approaching decision making in its own way, based on how its government’s decision making hierarchy works. However I personally believe that a world order in which there is broad-based productivity, peace, prosperity and protection of the environment is best.

CPIFA Editor: You consider AI as the greatest industrial revolution in human history. So in your mind, what "framework of trust" should China and the U.S. establish to ensure AI’s development and deployment remains beneficial, safe, and equitable? Are you optimistic about U.S.-China collaboration in this field? Do you believe AI could ultimately threaten or even displace humanity?

Ray Dalio: I am pessimistic about U.S.- China collaborations in this field because there is a lack of trust and fear of different types of war that won’t go away soon, and AI is a very powerful tool for war as well as a very powerful tool to produce better lives. (中國人民外交學會)