每日一篇外刊精讀｜馬斯克登陸火星的計畫泡湯了｜經濟學人

文章導讀

SpaceX星艦第九次試飛雖取得部分進展，但二級飛船在太空發生翻滾導致引擎重啟失敗，受控再入資料收集中斷，連續第三次墜毀。新版Block 2設計雖解決引擎艙起火問題，卻出現燃料箱洩漏新故障。三次失敗使星艦軌道往返、火星無人任務及NASA月球著陸計畫嚴重延遲，關鍵技術驗證停滯六個月。值得注意的是，150噸運載目標或過於激進，需降低載荷。由此可見，星艦替代獵鷹9號發射星鏈的計畫亦將推遲。

雙語正文

【1】SPACEX’S NINTH test flight of its Starship launch system could be counted as an advance over the previous two, which lit up the Caribbean skies a couple of thousand kilometres down-range of their Texas launch site like spectacular fireworks. A second stage successfully turned off its engines after reaching space intact, but by the time it re-entered the atmosphere on the other side of the world it was clear that this was a third failure in a row.

太空探索技術公司（SpaceX）對其星艦（Starship）發射系統進行的第九次試飛，與前兩次相比可算有所進步；前兩次試飛在距離其德克薩斯州發射場數千公里的加勒比海上空，如同盛大的煙花表演般點亮了天空。本次試飛中，第二級在完好無損地進入太空後成功關閉了引擎，但當它在世界另一端重返大氣層時，情況已清楚表明這是連續第三次失敗。

【2】The main goals of the latest test flight, launched in the evening of May 27th, were to show that the system’s second stage—the pointy bit which is the Starship proper—could relight one of its engines once in space and to gather reams of data from its controlled re-entry so as to improve the heat shielding on future craft. Unfortunately, when the Starship turned off its engines after its initial ascent it found itself rolling, and its Earthbound controllers could not get it to stop. The engine relight was cancelled, all remaining propellant was vented from the tanks and the Starship plunged to fiery oblivion over the empty part of the Indian Ocean where it had been meant to make a controlled splashdown.

5月27日晚間發射的這次最新試飛的主要目標，是證明該系統的第二級——即星艦本體，其尖頭部分——能在太空中重新點燃其中一台引擎，並收集其受控重返大氣層過程中的大量資料，以改進未來航天器的隔熱系統。不幸的是，當星艦在初始上升段後關閉引擎時，它開始發生翻滾，地面控制人員無法使其停止。引擎重新點火計畫被取消，所有剩餘的推進劑從燃料箱中排出，星艦隨即在印度洋預定進行受控濺落的空曠海域上空烈火焚身、墜入虛無。

【3】This Starship, like those which flew in the previous two flights, was of a new and supposedly improved design compared with the original version used in the first six flights. Its “Block 2” design’s purported enhancements—including higher thrust and fins better suited to re-entry—have not yet had a chance to manifest themselves. The tendency towards fire in the engine bay which doomed the previous two flights seems to have been sorted out, but a loss of fluids from one of the redesigned propellant tanks proved just as fatal. It is possible that this new problem, like the old one, stemmed from excessive vibration.

與前兩次試飛中的星艦一樣，本次飛行的星艦採用了相對於最初六次試飛所用原始版本而言全新且據稱改進的設計。其“Block 2”設計據稱進行的多項改進——包括更高推力和更適應再入大氣層的襟翼——尚未有機會顯現效果。導致前兩次飛行失敗的發動機艙起火傾向似乎已得到解決，但重新設計的推進劑貯箱之一發生的液體洩漏卻證明同樣致命。這個新問題，如同舊問題一樣，可能源於過度的振動。

【4】The issues may be sorted out through modifications to the remaining Block 2 ships; they may inform better design choices in the Block 3 ships. They may also indicate that the goal of a regularly reusable ship so light in its structure that it can get 150 tonnes into orbit is overly ambitious, and that the payload capacity will need to be reduced.

這些問題或許能通過對剩餘Block 2星艦的修改得以解決；它們也可能為Block 3星艦的設計提供更優選擇。這些問題還可能表明，追求打造一種結構如此之輕、可定期重複使用、並能將150噸有效載荷送入軌道的航天器的目標過於雄心勃勃，有效載荷能力將需要降低。

【5】Regardless of what happens next, the three failures mean that the company is no nearer getting a Starship into orbit and successfully back to Earth than it was six months ago, when the last Block 1 Starship managed a controlled splashdown. It has no new data on how best to cope with re-entry; it has no new experience turning engines on and off in space; and it is no longer building the sort of Starships which previously provided it with such things.

無論接下來發生什麼，這三次失敗意味著，與六個月前最後一艘Block 1星艦成功實現受控濺落時相比，該公司在實現星艦入軌並成功返回地球的目標上並未取得任何進展。它沒有獲得關於如何最佳應對再入大氣層的新資料；沒有獲得在太空中開關引擎的新經驗；而且它也不再建造過去曾提供這些資料和經驗的那類星艦了。

【6】The lost six months confirm that Elon Musk, SpaceX’s boss, will not be able to send uncrewed Starships to Mars next year, as he had claimed he intended to. The problems also cast serious doubt on the company’s ability to land an uncrewed Starship on the Moon next year as a precursor to delivering a crew there the year after as part of NASA’s “Artemis” programme. Starship is not the only part of the programme behind schedule; the 2027 date is hard to credit.

失去的六個月證實，SpaceX的老闆埃隆·馬斯克將無法如其所聲稱的那樣在明年發射無人星艦前往火星。這些問題也嚴重質疑了該公司能否在明年實現無人星艦登月，作為後年將宇航員送上月球（作為美國國家航空航天局“阿爾忒彌斯”計畫的一部分）的前奏。星艦並非該計畫中唯一進度落後的部分；2027年（載人登月）的目標日期令人難以信服。

【7】The losses have also pushed back the day when Starships might take over the job of launching the Starlink satellites which provide SpaceX with the bulk of its revenue. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launchers are on track to launch more Starlinks this year than ever before, but the service is still unable to provide bandwidth to all those who want it in some areas. In principle Starship will be able to increase the rate at which capacity is added. And the fact that the most recent test flight successfully reused a previously flown “super heavy” booster to speed the ill-fated Starship on its way was a hopeful sign that such launches can one day become routine. But that day seems to be getting no closer. ■

這些失敗也推遲了星艦可能接手發射星鏈（Starlink）衛星工作的日子，而星鏈衛星為SpaceX提供了其大部分收入。SpaceX的獵鷹9號（Falcon 9）運載火箭今年有望發射比以往任何時候都多的星鏈衛星，但在某些區域，該服務仍無法滿足所有需求者的頻寬需求。原則上，星艦將能夠提高運力擴充的速度。而且，最近一次試飛成功復用了先前飛行過的“超重型”（super heavy）助推器，將不幸的星艦送入太空，這一事實是一個充滿希望的跡象，表明此類發射終有一天會成為常規操作。但這一天似乎並未變得更加臨近。■ (Lingo閱讀丨每天一篇英語時文)