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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】市場動盪不安，投資人從科技股轉向周期股
強勁的經濟數據和上升的債券殖利率，帶動小型股和價值型類股全面上漲，重創漲幅驚人的成長股
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月1日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 在一場從大型科技股強力輪動至週期性和價值導向類股的交易日中，美國股市收盤漲跌互見。
- 那斯達克指數大幅下跌，而道瓊工業平均指數和羅素2000指數則飆升，投資者獎勵工業、房屋建築和金融等對經濟敏感的領域。
- 10年期美國公債殖利率上揚至4.26%，顯示投資者對經濟穩定抱持信心，並對成長股的估值構成壓力。
- 優於預期的就業職缺和穩固的製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)數據，證實經濟依然強韌，為市場的週期性轉向提供了催化劑。
- 參議院以些微差距通過一項重大的稅收和支出法案，加上川普總統新的貿易言論，為特定類股帶來了波動和尾盤的不確定性。
今日市場的領導地位明確出現分化，在美國經濟展現韌性的跡象下，投資者從漲幅驚人的科技股輪動至週期性類股。主要指數的分歧走勢說明了一切：儘管那斯達克綜合指數下跌0.82%，但道瓊工業平均指數上漲0.91%，小型股羅素2000指數更飆升0.94%。
這並非避險事件；這是一場刻意且積極的資金重新配置。投資者拋售高估值的成長股，並買入「實體經濟」中的多個領域——工業、金融、房屋建築和必需消費品——顯示市場相信經濟的強勢正擴展至少數幾家科技巨頭之外。
此輪動並非任意而為；它是對基本面數據的直接反應。5月份的JOLTS就業職缺報告顯示，勞動市場強韌，780萬個職位空缺輕易超出預期，並持續高於失業人數。與此同時，標普製造業採購經理人指數(S&P Manufacturing PMI)取得自2022年5月以來最強勁的讀數。債券市場證實了此一看法，10年期美國公債殖利率攀升至4.26%。對投資者而言，這是一個關鍵訊號：殖利率上升提高了未來企業獲利的折現率，使得昂貴的科技股吸引力下降，同時也提振了像銀行這樣受益於更陡峭殖利率曲線的週期性類股前景。
華盛頓特區的政治背景增添了另一層複雜性。參議院以51票對50票的些微差距，通過了川普政府的稅收和支出法案，驅動了顯著的特定類股走勢，因稅收抵免消息而受惠的太陽能股成為明顯贏家，而面臨聯邦醫療保險(Medicare)給付削減的居家醫療服務提供商，則成為輸家。川普總統在尾盤時質疑與日本貿易協議的言論，為市場注入了地緣政治風險，提醒投資者政策仍然是一個不確定因素。市場焦點現已轉向週四的非農業就業報告，這將是對此萌芽中經濟樂觀情緒的終極考驗。市場已押注於經濟的韌性；就業數據將決定此信心是否其來有自。
週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣個股趨勢
今日的焦點在於亞洲市場，在主要區域指數中，普遍呈現建設性的基調，其中日本的強勢加速尤為突出。然而，在台灣內部，情況則更為複雜，市場上市值最大的幾家公司之間出現顯著分歧，顯示投資者採取更具選擇性的方法。
圖表一：區域股市指數(美元計價)
- 台灣(代表ETF：EWT)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 香港(代表ETF：EWH)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 中國(代表ETF：MCHI)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 日本(代表ETF：EWJ)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲
- 南韓(代表ETF：EWY)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
過去一週，投資者對主要亞洲市場的情緒持續正向，市場多數維持穩固的上行趨勢。香港與南韓股市皆維持非常正向的走勢，證實了資本的持續流入。本週最顯著的發展來自日本，其趨勢由些微正向地加速，轉為非常正向，顯示市場信心重燃。台灣和中國的走勢則穩定維持在些微正向，表明投資者對這些市場的樂觀情緒持續但更為溫和。
圖表二：台灣五大企業(新台幣計價)
- 台積電(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd) (股票代號：2330)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 鴻海精密(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd) (股票代號：2317)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 聯發科(MediaTek Inc) (股票代號：2454)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼▼
- 廣達電腦(Quanta Computer Inc) (股票代號：2382)：當前：▼，上週：--
- 台達電子(Delta Electronics Inc) (股票代號：2308)：當前：▲，上週：--
台灣的龍頭企業之間已出現明顯的分歧。台積電(TSMC)維持其些微正向的趨勢，鞏固其市場領導地位。台達電(Delta Electronics)則出現了正向轉變，從中性改善至正面。相較之下，其他公司則持續面臨阻力，鴻海精密(Hon Hai Precision Industry)和聯發科(MediaTek)分別維持其負面和非常負面的趨勢。廣達電腦(Quanta Computer)則出現最嚴重的惡化，其趨勢從中性轉弱至輕微負面，顯示投資者正變得日益具選擇性，並懲罰那些未能展現基本面實力的個股。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Market In Flux as Investors Pivot from Tech to Cyclicals
Stronger economic data and rising bond yields fuel a broad-based rally in small caps and value sectors, punishing high-flying growth names.
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 1, 2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. stocks finished mixed in a session defined by a powerful rotation out of mega-cap technology and into cyclical and value-oriented sectors.
- The Nasdaq fell sharply while the Dow and Russell 2000 surged, with investors rewarding economically sensitive areas like industrials, homebuilders, and financials.
- The 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 4.26%, signaling investor confidence in economic stability and pressuring valuations for growth stocks.
- Stronger-than-expected job openings and solid manufacturing PMI data confirmed the economy remains resilient, providing the catalyst for the market's cyclical shift.
- The Senate's narrow passage of a major tax and spending bill, coupled with new trade rhetoric from President Trump, injected sector-specific volatility and late-day uncertainty.
The market’s leadership decisively fractured today, as investors rotated out of high-flying technology and into cyclical sectors on signs of a resilient U.S. economy. The divergence in major indexes tells the entire story: while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.82%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.91% and the small-cap Russell 2000 surged 0.94%. This was not a risk-off event; it was a deliberate and aggressive reallocation of capital. Investors sold high-valuation growth names and bought into a broad swath of the "real economy"—industrials, financials, homebuilders, and consumer staples—signaling a belief that economic strength is broadening beyond a few select tech behemoths.
This rotation was not arbitrary; it was a direct response to fundamental data. The May JOLTS report showed a resilient labor market, with 7.8 million job openings easily beating forecasts and remaining above the number of unemployed persons. Simultaneously, the S&P Manufacturing PMI registered its strongest reading since May 2022. The bond market confirmed this outlook, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.26%. For investors, this is a critical signal: rising yields increase the discount rate for future earnings, making expensive tech stocks less attractive while simultaneously boosting the outlook for cyclical sectors like banks that benefit from a steeper yield curve.
Adding another layer of complexity was the political backdrop in Washington. The Senate's narrow 51-50 passage of the Trump administration's tax and spending bill drove significant sector-specific moves, creating clear winners like solar stocks on tax credit news and losers like home health providers facing Medicare reimbursement cuts. Late-day comments from President Trump questioning a trade deal with Japan injected a dose of geopolitical risk, reminding investors that policy remains a wild card. The focus now sharpens on Thursday's nonfarm payrolls report, which will be the ultimate test of this budding economic optimism. The market has placed its bet on a resilient economy; the jobs data will determine if that confidence is well-founded.
Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends
Today's focus turns to key Asian markets, where a constructive tone prevails across major regional indices, highlighted by accelerating strength in Japan. Within Taiwan, however, the picture is more complex, revealing significant divergence among the market's largest companies and signaling a more selective investor approach.
Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)
Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- China (Proxy ETF: MCHI): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
- South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
Investor sentiment toward major Asian markets remained positive over the past week, with most trends holding firm. Hong Kong and South Korea both maintained their Strongly Positive trends, confirming sustained capital inflows. The most notable development was in Japan, where the trend accelerated from Mildly Positive to Strongly Positive, signaling renewed conviction. The trends for Taiwan and China held stable at Mildly Positive, indicating continued but more moderate investor optimism in these markets.
Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturng Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: ▲, Last Week: --
A clear divergence has emerged among Taiwan's leading corporations. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd maintained its Mildly Positive trend, reinforcing its market leadership. A positive shift occurred in Delta Electronics, which improved from Neutral to Mildly Positive. In contrast, headwinds persist for others, with Hon Hai Precision Industry and MediaTek holding their Negative and Strongly Negative trends, respectively. Quanta Computer showed the most significant deterioration, with its trend weakening from Neutral to Mildly Negative, suggesting investors are becoming increasingly selective and punishing names that fail to show fundamental strength.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。