輝達獲准恢復對中高階晶片銷售，掃除關鍵地緣政治隱憂，助燃科技股飆漲，為台股創紀錄行情鋪路。Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月8日 美東時間摘要輝達H200晶片對中銷售獲准，加上對聯準會降息的高度預期，提振了風險偏好，全球股市有望上漲。在台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)大漲2.43%及AI供應鏈地緣政治風險降低的驅動下，台股大漲逾300點，收復28,000點大關。市場已反映週三聯準會降息機率近90%，並靜待2026年政策路徑指引，公債殖利率微幅走高至4.17%。川普政府有條件批准輝達對中國出口先進AI晶片，成為科技產業最主要的正向催化劑。儘管市場風險偏好情緒高漲，黃金仍持穩於每盎司4,200美元附近，顯示儘管投資者逢低買進科技股，但對長期經濟前景仍保持謹慎。市場迎來了雙重樂觀情緒的強力注入。首先，川普政府有條件批准輝達(NVIDIA)恢復對中國出口其先進的H200 AI晶片，此舉掃除了一直困擾半導體產業的巨大地緣政治隱憂。此一包含與美國政府達成營收分享協議的政策轉向，立即受到投資者歡迎，推升輝達股價上揚，並點燃了AI相關個股的廣泛漲勢。其次，市場已有效地鎖定聯準會週三的降息決議，隱含機率盤旋在近90%。監管壓力緩解與即將到來的貨幣支持相結合，已重新點燃市場的風險偏好，驅動標普500指數與那斯達克指數重返歷史高點附近。此一具建設性的背景，正成為台灣市場的火箭燃料。台股加權指數(TAIEX)大漲超過322點，收在28,303點，果決地收復了具心理重要性的28,000點大關。此波漲勢由台積電(TSMC)領軍，其美國存託憑證(ADR)隔夜大漲2.43%，反映了這家晶圓代工巨擘將從中國對高階AI晶片重燃的需求中直接受益。技術指標已全面轉為看漲，隨著法人機構為年底績效的「作帳行情」現已展開，阻力最小的路徑是向上。市場總市值正逼近歷史性的新台幣百兆元里程碑，突顯了此波由流動性驅動的漲勢之規模。然而，盤面之下正浮現分歧。當大型科技股與AI龍頭上漲之際，其他板塊則顯現壓力跡象。邁威爾科技(Marvell Technology)因對其超大規模資料中心業務的擔憂而下跌近7%，突顯了即使在成長股交易中，投資者也變得更具辨別力。此外，儘管黃金維持在歷史高點附近，但比特幣相較於股市的表現則顯得溫吞，顯示投機狂熱並不如先前幾波漲勢那般猖獗。在我們進入聯準會會議之際，關鍵的風險已非降息本身，而是前瞻指引。若聯準會釋出的2026年路徑比市場預期的更為謹慎，當前的 euphoric 情緒可能將面臨迅速的考驗。週一資產焦點：美國股市與個股趨勢本摘要總結了美國主要股價指數及領先企業為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。圖表一：美國股價指數(美元計價)道瓊工業平均指數(代表性ETF: DIA): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲標普500指數(代表性ETF: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲那斯達克綜合指數(代表性ETF: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲羅素2000指數(代表性ETF: IWM): 當前: ▲, 一週前: --費城半導體指數(代表性ETF: SOXQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲美國股市基準指數普遍觀察到一致的趨勢轉強。道瓊工業平均指數、標普500指數、那斯達克綜合指數及費城半導體指數，皆從溫和正向轉強為強勁正向。此一正面動能亦擴及小型股，羅素2000指數的指標從中性轉為溫和正向。此數據指向美國更廣泛市場的前景已出現同步改善。圖表二：美國前五大企業(美元計價)輝達(NVIDIA Corp, NVDA): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▼蘋果(Apple Inc, AAPL): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲微軟(Microsoft Corp, MSFT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▼亞馬遜(Amazon.com Inc, AMZN): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲美國最大型的企業中，出現了好壞參半的趨勢變化格局。輝達(NVIDIA)出現趨勢反轉，從溫和負向改善至溫和正向。相較之下，亞馬遜(Amazon)的評估則轉弱，從溫和正向轉為溫和負向。蘋果(Apple)和Alphabet維持其強勁正向的趨勢，而微軟(Microsoft)則守住其溫和負向的評級。這顯示這些大型科技龍頭呈現的是獨特的個股趨勢樣貌，而非群體一致的走勢。📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。如果您覺得這份研究有價值：👍為這篇文章按讚。📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。NVIDIA's China Win and Fed Cut Hopes Ignite Tech Rally; TAIEX Targets New HighsApproval for NVIDIA to resume high-end chip sales to China removes a key geopolitical overhang, fueling a tech surge that positions the TAIEX for a record-breaking run.By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-08Executive SummaryGlobal equities are poised for gains as the approval of NVIDIA's H200 chip sales to China and high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut boost risk appetite.The TAIEX surged over 300 points to reclaim the 28,000 level, driven by a 2.43% jump in TSMC's ADR and reduced geopolitical risk for the AI supply chain.Treasury yields ticked higher to 4.17% as markets priced in a near 90% probability of a Wednesday Fed rate cut while awaiting guidance on the 2026 policy path.The Trump administration's conditional approval for NVIDIA to export advanced AI chips to China served as the primary positive catalyst for the technology sector.Gold held firm near $4,200/oz despite the risk-on mood, signaling that investors remain cautious about the long-term economic outlook even as they buy the dip in tech.The market has received a powerful dual-injection of optimism. First, the Trump administration’s conditional approval for NVIDIA to resume exporting its advanced H200 AI chips to China removes a massive geopolitical overhang that has plagued the semiconductor sector. This policy shift, which includes a revenue-sharing agreement with the U.S. government, was immediately cheered by investors, sending NVIDIA shares higher and sparking a broad rally in AI-related stocks. Second, the market has effectively locked in a Federal Reserve rate cut for Wednesday, with the implied probability hovering near 90%. This combination of eased regulatory pressure and imminent monetary support has reignited risk appetite, driving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq back toward record highs.This constructive backdrop is acting as rocket fuel for the Taiwan market. The TAIEX surged over 322 points to close at 28,303, decisively reclaiming the psychologically important 28,000 level. The rally was spearheaded by TSMC, whose ADR jumped 2.43% overnight, reflecting the direct benefit the foundry giant will see from renewed Chinese demand for high-end AI silicon. Technical indicators have turned bullish across the board, and with institutional "window dressing" for year-end performance now underway, the path of least resistance is higher. The market capitalization is approaching the historic NT$100 trillion milestone, underscoring the magnitude of this liquidity-driven advance.However, a divergence is emerging under the surface. While mega-cap tech and AI leaders are rallying, other segments are showing signs of stress. Marvell Technology fell nearly 7% on concerns about its hyperscaler business, highlighting that investors are becoming more discerning even within the growth trade. Additionally, while gold remains near record highs, Bitcoin's performance has been tepid compared to equities, suggesting that speculative fervor is not as rampant as in previous rallies. As we head into the Fed meeting, the key risk is not the rate cut itself, but the forward guidance. If the Fed signals a more cautious path for 2026 than the market expects, the current euphoria could face a swift test.Monday Asset Focus: U.S. Equity & Company TrendsThis brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for major U.S. equity indices and leading U.S. companies. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Exhibit 1: U.S. Equity Indices (in USD)Dow Jones Industrial Average (Proxy ETF: DIA): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲S&P 500 Index (Proxy ETF: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲Nasdaq Composite (Proxy ETF: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲Russell 2000 Index (Proxy ETF: IWM): Current: ▲, Last Week: --PHLX Semiconductor Index (Proxy ETF: SOXQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲A uniform strengthening of trend assessments was observed across U.S. equity benchmarks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and PHLX Semiconductor Index all improved from mildly positive to strongly positive. This positive momentum also extended to small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 indicator moving from neutral to mildly positive. This data points to a cohesive improvement in the outlook for the broader U.S. market.Exhibit 2: Top 5 U.S. Companies (in USD)NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼Apple Inc (Ticker: AAPL): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲Microsoft Corp (Ticker: MSFT): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼Amazon.com Inc (Ticker: AMZN): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲Alphabet Inc Class A (Ticker: GOOGL): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲A mixed set of trend changes occurred among the largest U.S. companies. NVIDIA saw a trend reversal, improving from mildly negative to mildly positive. In contrast, Amazon’s assessment weakened, shifting from mildly positive to mildly negative. Apple and Alphabet maintained their strongly positive trends, while Microsoft held its mildly negative rating. This suggests distinct, individual trend profiles for these mega-cap technology leaders rather than a group movement.📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.if you found this research valuable:👍'Like' this post.📰Follow this blog for new market updates.➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

降息押注鞏固，標普500指數逼近歷史高點；NVIDIA監管利多，吸引外資重返台股。Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月5日 美東時間摘要「溫和」的美國通膨數據鞏固了聯準會十二月降息的預期，全球股市擴大漲勢，主要指數逼近歷史高點。在外資逾百億買超及AI供應鏈監管風險降低的驅動下，台股加權指數(TAIEX)今日大漲。九月份個人消費支出(PCE)報告符合預期，強化了市場對持續寬鬆週期的信念，公債殖利率穩定在4.1%附近。輝達(NVIDIA)成功遊說反對美國國防法案中新的AI出口限制，為半導體產業提供了關鍵順風。在ETF資金外流與宏觀市場緊張情緒的壓力下，比特幣與股市急遽分歧，滑落回89,000美元附近。延後公布的美國九月份個人消費支出(PCE)通膨數據，因符合市場普遍預期，已有效地鎖定了聯準會下週的降息決議。此一「溫和」的數據，為決策者移除了最後的障礙，將市場隱含的十二月十日降息機率推升至約87%。市場的反應是一場果決的風險偏好走勢，標普500指數與那斯達克指數連續第四日上漲，距離歷史高點僅不到1%。在Netflix與華納兄弟探索(Warner Bros. Discovery)之間一項高達720億美元的併購案宣布下，投資狂熱情緒(animal spirits)的復甦得到進一步證明，此訊號顯示企業信心正隨著流動性回歸。對台灣市場而言，此一看漲的宏觀背景，正被一項關鍵的產業特定勝利所放大。報導指稱輝達(NVIDIA)執行長黃仁勳成功遊說白宮，將具限制性的《GAINAIACT》從年度國防法案中排除，此舉已掃除了一項巨大的監管隱憂。此一政策上的勝利，直接提振了整個AI供應鏈，驗證了高階晶片出口管道的韌性。外資法人立即作出反應，回補逾百億新台幣買超台股，推動台股加權指數(TAIEX)上漲185點，兵臨28,000點大關。外資的回籠，加上台積電美國存託憑證(ADR)的走強，顯示本地市場的盤整階段正朝上檔突破。然而，風險格局中仍存在顯著的兩極分化。當傳統股市上漲之際，加密貨幣市場仍承受巨大壓力，比特幣在持續的ETF資金外流中，滑落回89,000美元附近。此一分歧顯示，法人資本正輪動至高品質的成長股與傳統風險性資產，而非投機性標的。展望下週，焦點完全集中在聯準會。在降息已成定局的情況下，市場的軌跡將取決於聯準會對2026年的前瞻指引。對台灣而言，技術面已顯著轉強；若成交量能擴大以確認此波走勢，突破創下歷史新高將是阻力最小的路徑。週五資產焦點：美國與台灣ETF趨勢本摘要總結了美國和台灣資產管理規模最大的交易所買賣基金(ETF)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。圖表一：美國資產規模前五大ETF(美元計價)Vanguard標普500指數ETF (Ticker: VOO): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲iShares核心標普500指數ETF (Ticker: IVV): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲SPDR標普500指數ETF信託 (Ticker: SPY): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲Vanguard整體股市指數ETF (Ticker: VTI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲Invesco QQQ信託系列1 (Ticker: QQQ): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲美國規模最大的幾檔ETF，其趨勢普遍出現一致的轉強。代表標普500指數、美國整體股市及那斯達克100指數的所有五檔基金，其指標皆從溫和正向轉強為強勁正向。此一同步轉變，指向過去一週美國主要股價指數基準的正向動能已出現基礎廣泛的增強。圖表二：台灣資產規模前五大ETF(新台幣計價)元大台灣卓越50基金 (Ticker: 0050): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲元大高股息基金 (Ticker: 0056): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼國泰永續高股息基金 (Ticker: 00878): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼群益台灣精選高息基金 (Ticker: 00919): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼富邦台灣采吉50基金 (Ticker: 006208): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲台灣的高股息ETF內部出現了明顯的回穩。國泰永續高股息ETF(00878)和群益台灣精選高息ETF(00919)的趨勢指標，從強勁負向改善至中性；而元大高股息ETF(0056)則從溫和負向轉為中性。這與廣泛市值加權的基金(0050和006208)形成對比，後者維持其溫和正向的趨勢。此資訊顯示，高股息類股的賣壓本週已顯著緩解。📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。如果您覺得這份研究有價值：👍為這篇文章按讚。📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。Benign Inflation Data Clears Runway for Fed CutS&P 500 nears record highs as rate cut bets solidify, while a major regulatory victory for NVIDIA draws foreign capital back into the TAIEX.By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-05Executive SummaryGlobal equities extended their rally as "benign" U.S. inflation data cemented expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, pushing major indices near all-time highs.The TAIEX surged today driven by over NT$10 billion in foreign buying and reduced regulatory risks for the AI supply chain.Treasury yields stabilized near 4.1% as the September PCE report met expectations, reinforcing the market's conviction in a continued easing cycle.NVIDIA's successful lobbying against new AI export restrictions in the U.S. defense bill provided a critical tailwind for the semiconductor sector.Bitcoin diverged sharply from the equity rally, sliding back toward $89,000 as ETF outflows and macro jitters weighed on speculative assets.The release of delayed U.S. September PCE inflation data, which matched consensus expectations, has effectively locked in a Federal Reserve rate cut for next week. This "benign" print removed the final obstacle for policymakers, pushing the market-implied probability of a December 10 cut to roughly 87%. The reaction was a decisive risk-on move in equities, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ logging their fourth consecutive advance to trade within 1% of all-time highs. This renewal of animal spirits was further evidenced by a massive $72 billion M&A announcement between Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery, signaling that corporate confidence is returning alongside liquidity.For the Taiwan market, the bullish macro backdrop is being amplified by a critical industry-specific victory. Reports that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang successfully lobbied the White House to exclude the restrictive GAIN AI Act from the annual defense bill have removed a massive regulatory overhang. This policy win is a direct boost to the entire AI supply chain, validating the resilience of the export channel for high-end chips. Foreign investors responded immediately, pouring over NT$10 billion back into the TAIEX, driving the index up 185 points to the doorstep of the 28,000 level. The return of foreign capital, combined with TSMC's strengthening ADR, suggests the local market's consolidation phase is resolving to the upside.However, a notable bifurcation persists in the risk landscape. While traditional equities are rallying, the cryptocurrency market remains under significant pressure, with Bitcoin sliding back toward $89,000 amidst persistent ETF outflows. This divergence indicates that institutional capital is rotating toward high-quality growth and traditional risk assets rather than speculative plays. Looking ahead to next week, the focus is squarely on the Federal Reserve. With the rate cut now priced in, the market's trajectory will depend on the Fed's forward guidance for 2026. For Taiwan, the technical picture has strengthened significantly; if trading volume expands to confirm this move, a breakout to new record highs is the path of least resistance.Friday Asset Focus: U.S. & Taiwanese ETF TrendsThis brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for the largest U.S. and Taiwanese exchange-traded funds by assets under management. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Exhibit 1: Top 5 U.S. ETFs by AUM (in USD)Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: VOO): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: IVV): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (Ticker: SPY): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (Ticker: VTI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (Ticker: QQQ): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲A uniform strengthening of trends occurred across the largest U.S. ETFs. All five funds, representing the S&P 500, the total U.S. stock market, and the NASDAQ 100, saw their indicators improve from mildly positive to strongly positive. This coordinated shift points to a broad-based increase in positive momentum across major U.S. equity benchmarks over the past week.Exhibit 2: Top Taiwanese ETFs by AUM (in TWD)Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (Ticker: 0050): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF (Ticker: 0056): Current: --, Last Week: ▼Cathay MSCI Taiwan ESG Sustain Hi Div Yield ETF (Ticker: 00878): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼Capital TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Div ETF (Ticker: 00919): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF (Ticker: 006208): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲A distinct stabilization appeared within Taiwan's high-dividend ETFs. The trend indicators for the Cathay ESG (00878) and Capital TIP (00919) ETFs improved from strongly negative to neutral, while the Yuanta Dividend Plus ETF (0056) moved from mildly negative to neutral. This contrasts with the broad market-cap weighted funds (0050 and 006208), which maintained their mildly positive trends. This information suggests that selling pressure in the high-dividend segment eased significantly this week.📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content. 💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.if you found this research valuable:👍'Like' this post. 📰Follow this blog for new market updates.➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

成功遊說反對AI晶片新限制，穩定NVIDIA股價；聯準會升高的降息機率，則為技術面轉強的台股提供支撐背景。Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月4日 美東時間摘要隨著對聯準會十二月降息的信念增強，風險性資產獲支撐，全球市場回穩；然在關鍵政策決議前，交易量萎縮。輝達(NVIDIA)成功遊說反對美國國防法案中的AI晶片新出口限制後，股價反彈超過2%，消除了AI產業的一大隱憂。台股加權指數(TAIEX)面臨量縮但技術面轉強的關鍵時刻，顯示若買盤回籠，可能出現突破。好壞參半的勞動數據——初請領失業金人數下降但裁員人數仍高——使聯準會維持寬鬆路徑，公債殖利率穩定在4.1%附近。在報導指稱川普政府可能發布「機器人行政命令」的驅動下，機器人產業浮現為新題材。市場目前處於一個盤整格局，其特徵為成交量低迷，但對風險性資產的潛在買盤正在增強。主要的驅動力，仍然是聯準會下週降息的幾近確定性，市場定價現已顯示機率達85-90%。此一鴿派背景更受到美國好壞參半的勞動數據所強化：儘管初請領失業金人數下降，但就業市場普遍降溫的趨勢，使聯準會仍處於寬鬆的路徑上。此環境正削弱美元，並為比特幣等對風險敏感的資產提供支撐，比特幣維持在92,000美元以上，而歐元則緩步走高。隨著輝達(NVIDIA)執行長黃仁勳成功遊說，反對將《GAINAIACT》納入年度美國國防法案，科技產業浮現了一個重大的正面催化劑。此舉阻止了對AI晶片新的、具限制性的出口管制，為整個半導體供應鏈移除了重大的尾部風險。輝達隨後的漲勢，為市場情緒帶來關鍵提振。與此同時，一個圍繞機器人技術的新題材驅動力正在浮現，此乃受惠於報導指稱川普政府正準備一項行政命令以加速該產業發展。這點燃了台灣相關個股的漲勢，突顯了市場對美國產業政策的敏感性。對台灣市場而言，儘管近期成交量低迷，但技術面格局仍具建設性。台股加權指數(TAIEX)正在短期移動平均線之上盤整，且動能指標正向，顯示「看漲的市場結構依然完整」。關鍵的缺失要素是成交量；投資者正在場邊觀望，靜待美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)的會議。然而，隨著外部環境因輝達的政策勝利與聯準會的鴿派軌跡而轉為有利，阻力最小的路徑似乎是向上。法人成交量的回歸，可能迅速點燃挑戰新高的火花，特別是在AI、機器人及先進製造等產業。週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢本摘要總結了關鍵貨幣對(以新台幣計價)及主要大宗商品類股(以美元計價)為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。圖表一：貨幣(新台幣計價)美元(貨幣對: USDTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲歐元(貨幣對: EURTWD): 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲日圓(貨幣對: JPYTWD): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼人民幣(貨幣對: CNYTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲加幣(貨幣對: CADTWD): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲日圓的趨勢有所改善，從溫和負向轉為中性。這與貨幣市場其他部分所見的穩定性形成對比。美元、人民幣和加幣皆維持其強勁正向的評級。歐元亦持穩於溫和正向的指標。此資訊顯示，日圓已回穩，而其他主要貨幣相對於新台幣則普遍維持強勢。圖表二：大宗商品(美元計價)能源類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBE): 當前: --, 一週前: ▼▼農業類大宗商品(代表性ETF: DBA): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼工業金屬(代表性ETF: DBB): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲貴金屬(代表性ETF: DBP): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲數位資產(代表性ETF: IBIT): 當前: ▼▼, 一週前: ▼▼能源類大宗商品出現顯著轉變，其趨勢指標從強勁負向改善至中性。工業金屬的力道亦見增強，從溫和正向轉為強勁正向。這些改善與農業類大宗商品和數位資產持續的強勁負向趨勢形成對比。貴金屬則維持其強勁正向的評估。此現象指向工業與能源相關原物料的前景正在復甦。📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。如果您覺得這份研究有價值：👍為這篇文章按讚。📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。Dovish Bets Firm as NVIDIA Wins Policy Victory; TAIEX Eyes BreakoutA successful lobbying effort against new AI chip restrictions stabilizes NVIDIA, while rising Fed rate cut odds provide a supportive backdrop for a technically strengthening TAIEX.By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-04Executive SummaryGlobal markets stabilized as stronger conviction in a December Federal Reserve rate cut supported risk assets, though trading volume thinned ahead of key policy decisions.NVIDIA shares rallied over 2% after successfully lobbying against new export restrictions in the U.S. defense bill, removing a major overhang for the AI sector.The TAIEX faces a critical juncture with shrinking volume but strengthening technicals, suggesting a potential breakout if buying pressure returns.Treasury yields stabilized near 4.1% as mixed labor data—lower jobless claims but elevated layoffs—kept the Fed on track for easing.The robotics sector emerged as a new theme, driven by reports of a potential "robotics executive order" from the Trump administration.The market is currently in a holding pattern, characterized by low volume but a strengthening underlying bid for risk assets. The primary driver remains the near-certainty of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, with market pricing now indicating an 85-90% probability. This dovish backdrop is being reinforced by mixed U.S. labor data: while initial jobless claims fell, the broader trend of cooling employment is keeping the Fed on an easing path. This environment is weakening the U.S. dollar and providing support for risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, which is holding above $92,000, and the Euro, which is grinding higher.A significant positive catalyst emerged for the technology sector with news that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang successfully lobbied against the inclusion of the GAIN AI Act in the annual U.S. defense bill. This prevents new, restrictive export controls on AI chips, removing a major tail risk for the entire semiconductor supply chain. NVIDIA's subsequent rally provided a crucial lift to sentiment. Simultaneously, a new thematic driver is emerging around robotics, fueled by reports that the Trump administration is preparing an executive order to accelerate the industry. This sparked a rally in related stocks in Taiwan, highlighting the market's sensitivity to U.S. industrial policy.For the Taiwan market, the technical picture is constructive despite recent low trading volumes. The TAIEX is consolidating above short-term moving averages with positive momentum indicators, suggesting the "bullish market structure remains intact." The key missing ingredient is volume; investors are on the sidelines awaiting the FOMC meeting. However, with the external environment turning supportive—thanks to NVIDIA's policy win and the Fed's dovish trajectory—the path of least resistance appears to be higher. A return of institutional volume could quickly spark a challenge of new highs, particularly in the AI, robotics, and advanced manufacturing sectors.Thursday Asset Focus: Currency & Commodity TrendsThis brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key currency pairs against the TWD and for major commodity sectors in USD terms. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)U.S. Dollar (FX Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲Euro (FX Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲Japanese Yen (FX Pair: JPYTWD): Current: --, Last Week: ▼Chinese Yuan (FX Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲Canadian Dollar (FX Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲The trend for the Japanese Yen improved, shifting from mildly negative to neutral. This stands in contrast to the stability seen elsewhere in the currency complex. The U.S. Dollar, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all maintained their strongly positive ratings. The Euro also held steady with a mildly positive indicator. This information suggests a stabilization for the Yen while broad strength persists for other major currencies against the TWD.Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼A significant shift occurred in Energy Commodities, where the trend indicator improved from strongly negative to neutral. Strength also built in Industrial Metals, which moved from mildly to strongly positive. These improvements contrast with the persistent strongly negative trends in Agricultural Commodities and Digital Assets. Precious Metals maintained their strongly positive assessment. This points to a recovering outlook for industrial and energy inputs.📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.if you found this research valuable:👍'Like' this post.📰Follow this blog for new market updates.➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。

民間就業人數意外下滑，鞏固十二月寬鬆押注。Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年12月3日 美東時間摘要出乎意料疲弱的勞動市場數據，將聯準會十二月降息的隱含機率推升至近90%，美股應聲上漲。在有利的技術面格局與歷史上十二月強勁表現的傾向支撐下，台股加權指數(TAIEX)有望進一步上漲。市場消化ADP報告顯示民間就業人數萎縮的消息，強化了立即實施貨幣寬鬆的理由，公債殖利率應聲下跌。ADP全國就業報告揭露十一月份就業人數意外減少32,000人，成為重燃風險偏好情緒的主要催化劑。比特幣反彈至93,000美元以上，預示在殖利率走低與正面的監管訊號驅動下，投機偏好正在回歸。一份出乎意料疲弱的ADP就業報告——顯示十一月份民間部門就業人數減少32,000人，與預期的增加形成對比——已將市場論述從「他們會降息嗎？」轉變為「他們必須降息」。在政府關門造成的數據真空中，此一勞動市場的惡化，已迫使市場反映聯準會下週寬鬆政策的機率近90%。市場的反應是一場典型的「壞消息即是好消息」的漲勢：隨著流動性的水龍頭看似即將重啟，公債殖利率下跌、美元走軟，股市則上揚。此一鴿派轉向，正為全球風險性資產提供強勁的順風。在美國，金融與能源等週期性類股領漲，而小型股則飆升超過1%，預示市場參與度正在擴大。比特幣反彈回93,000美元以上，進一步確認了在近期的清算事件後，風險偏好正在復甦。對台灣市場而言，格局日益看漲。隨著外部宏觀環境轉為有利，且台股加權指數(TAIEX)展現有利的技術偏向，挑戰新高的舞台已然搭好。法人投資者在十二月強勁的「作帳行情」歷史傾向，與此波重燃的全球樂觀情緒完美契合。週三資產焦點：美國經濟與債券趨勢本摘要總結了美國關鍵經濟指標和美國公債ETF為期一週的趨勢變化。此等指標僅供參考，不構成任何買賣證券的建議。圖表一：美國宏觀經濟投資存續期間: 當前: ▲, 一週前: ▲企業獲利: 當前: --, 一週前: ▼通貨膨脹: 當前: --, 一週前: --貨幣流量(流入美元): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --消費者信心: 當前: ▲, 一週前: --過去一週，美國國內關鍵領域浮現正面動能。消費者信心的趨勢從中性改善至溫和正向，而企業獲利的指標則回穩，從溫和負向轉為中性。這些改善與貨幣流量(流入美元)指標形成對比，後者從中性轉弱為溫和負向。投資存續期間和通貨膨脹的評估則維持不變，顯示經濟背景好壞參半但普遍趨於穩固。圖表二：美國公債(美元計價)1-3年期美國公債(代表性ETF: SHY): 當前: --, 一週前: ▲3-7年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEI): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲7-10年期美國公債(代表性ETF: IEF): 當前: ▲▲, 一週前: ▲▲10-20年期美國公債(代表性ETF: TLH): 當前: ▼, 一週前: ▲20年期以上美國公債(代表性ETF: TLT): 當前: ▼, 一週前: --美國公債殖利率曲線的趨勢評估出現清晰的對比。中期券種(3-7年期和7-10年期)維持其強勁正向的評級，突顯了殖利率曲線中段的持續強勢。然而，長天期部分則顯著轉弱；10-20年期指標從溫和正向反轉為溫和負向，而20年期以上趨勢則從中性下滑至溫和負向。短天期公債亦見趨緩，轉為中性評估。📲加入我們的專屬頻道，即可獲取我們的跨資產趨勢指標矩陣，以及專家嚴選的投資內容。💬透過LINE與我們聯繫，即可加入社群。如果您覺得這份研究有價值：👍為這篇文章按讚。📰追蹤此部落格，獲取最新的市場動態。➡️分享給其他關注美股和台股市場的投資者。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。Markets Rally as Fed Rate Cut Becomes Near Certainty With Weak Jobs DataA surprise decline in private payrolls cements bets on December easing.By Joe 盧, CFA | 2025-12-03Executive SummaryU.S. equities rallied as unexpectedly weak labor market data pushed the implied probability of a December Federal Reserve rate cut near 90%.The TAIEX is poised for further gains, supported by a favorable technical setup and the historical tendency for a strong December performance.Treasury yields fell as the market digested the ADP report showing a contraction in private payrolls, reinforcing the case for immediate monetary easing.The ADP National Employment Report revealed a surprise loss of 32,000 jobs in November, serving as the primary catalyst for the renewed risk-on sentiment.Bitcoin rebounded above $93,000, signaling a return of speculative appetite driven by lower yields and positive regulatory signals.A surprisingly weak ADP employment report, which showed the private sector shedding 32,000 jobs in November against expectations of a gain, has shifted the narrative from "will they?" to "they must." This deterioration in the labor market, occurring amidst a data vacuum caused by the government shutdown, has forced the market to price in a nearly 90% probability of Federal Reserve easing next week. The reaction was a classic "bad news is good news" rally: Treasury yields fell, the dollar softened, and equities advanced as the liquidity spigot appeared set to reopen.This dovish pivot is providing a powerful tailwind for risk assets globally. In the U.S., cyclical sectors like financials and energy led the advance, while small-caps surged over 1%, signaling broadening market participation. Bitcoin's bounce back above $93,000 further confirms that risk appetite is recovering after the recent liquidation event. For the Taiwan market, the setup is increasingly bullish. With the external macro environment turning supportive and the TAIEX exhibiting a favorable technical bias, the stage is set for a run at new highs. The historical tendency for a strong December "window dressing" rally by institutional investors aligns perfectly with this renewed global optimism.Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economic & Bond TrendsThis brief summarizes 1-week trend changes for key U.S. economic indicators and U.S. Treasury bond ETFs. The indicators are for informational purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic IndicatorsInvestment Duration: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲Corporate Earnings: Current: --, Last Week: ▼Inflation: Current: --, Last Week: --Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼, Last Week: --Consumer Strength: Current: ▲, Last Week: --Positive momentum developed in key domestic areas over the past week. The trend for Consumer Strength improved from neutral to mildly positive, while the indicator for Corporate Earnings stabilized, moving from mildly negative to neutral. These improvements contrast with the Currency Flow (into USD) indicator, which weakened from neutral to mildly negative. Investment Duration and Inflation assessments remained unchanged, suggesting a mixed but generally firming economic backdrop.Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: --, Last Week: ▲3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▲20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▼, Last Week: --A clear contrast in trend assessments emerged across the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Intermediate maturities (3-7 Year and 7-10 Year) maintained their strongly positive ratings, highlighting persistent strength in the belly of the curve. However, the long end weakened significantly; the 10-20 Year indicator reversed from mildly positive to mildly negative, and the 20+ Year trend dipped from neutral to mildly negative. Short-term bonds also softened, moving to a neutral assessment.📲Join our private channels to gain access to our cross-asset Trend Conviction Matrix and expert-curated investment content.💬Connect with us on LINE to join the group.if you found this research valuable:👍'Like' this post.📰Follow this blog for new market updates.➡️Share it with others who track U.S. and Taiwan markets.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。