儘管川普實施關稅政策，聯準會理事暗示降息選項仍存在，股市收高Joe Lu, CFA 2025年4月14日 美東時間市場概況由於投資者評估川普總統關稅政策的最新發展，週一股市有所回升。受益於政府意外宣布豁免智慧型手機、電腦和半導體晶片的對等關稅新措施，科技股上漲，帶動整體市場在經歷一波震盪交易後股市收高。道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲+0.87%(+312.08點)，收於40,524.79點，標普500指數上升+0.79%，收於5,405.97點。以科技股為主的納斯達克指數上漲+0.64%，收盤於16,831.48點。三大指數在盤中交易過程中均出現顯著的波動，一度轉為負值交易，最終仍收高。芝加哥期權交易所波動指數(VIX)，也被稱作「華爾街的恐慌指標」，較上週的極端值下降超過6點，表明市場焦慮有所緩解。週五晚間意外宣布的關稅豁免為科技股提供了急需的催化劑，蘋果上漲+2.21%，戴爾躍升近4%。然而，川普總統和商務部長盧特尼克(Howard Lutnick) 隨後的聲明暗示這些豁免可能不是永久性的，這削弱了市場反彈力道。根據川普在Truth Social上的貼文，這些產品「仍受現有20%芬太尼關稅約束，只是被移至不同關稅『類別』」，為本已複雜的局勢增添了新的不確定性。在一項關鍵發展中，美國聯準會理事沃勒(Christopher Waller)表示，川普關稅導致的通膨可能是「暫時性的」，表明儘管面臨潛在的價格壓力，降息仍在考慮之中。「我已經能聽到有人抗議這肯定是個錯誤，尤其考慮到2021和2022年發生的事。但僅僅因為一次沒有成功，並不意味著你永遠不應該再這樣思考」，沃勒在聖路易斯的演講中如此說道，回應對重蹈先前政策錯誤的擔憂。要點摘要：美國聯準會理事沃勒表示關稅引起的通膨可能是「暫時性的」，暗示降息仍在考慮範圍內儘管波動劇烈，市場收高，科技股受惠於智慧型手機和半導體關稅豁免而上漲道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲+0.78%，標普500指數上升+0.79%，納斯達克指數上漲+0.64%，交易過程充滿波動蘋果股價飆升+2.21%領漲科技股，戴爾在豁免消息刺激下大漲近4%必需消費類股是4月份唯一呈現正向表現的標普500類股，反映市場不確定性下的防禦性布局經濟指標經濟指標顯示持續惡化，投資週期在所有時間框架上都呈現顯著弱勢。投資週期的下滑表明市場參與者越來越傾向於短期投資，反映了對長期經濟前景的高度不確定性。這種模式通常出現在投資者預期未來可能出現經濟挑戰的時期。企業獲利亦顯示出令人擔憂的模式，在大多數時間框架上持續呈現負面讀數。這表明獲利前景正在惡化，可能受到關稅將透過增加投入成本，壓縮利潤的擔憂所影響。這些負面訊號在多個時間段的一致性表明這不僅僅是暫時性現象，而是可能影響未來幾季企業績效表現的發展趨勢。美國十大公司美國大型企業週一表現參差不齊，科技公司普遍表現較好。蘋果領漲科技類股，大幅上升+2.21%，直接反映對其供應鏈有利的關稅豁免措施。因為投資者重新評估科技業曝險，Alphabet(谷歌母公司)表現也不錯，上漲+1.23%。相反，幾家頂級公司經歷了明顯下跌。Meta Platforms(前身為Facebook)在十大公司中跌幅最大，下跌-2.22%。亞馬遜跟隨下跌-1.48%，博通下降-1.97%。這些混合的結果突顯了今日反彈的選擇性，市場參與者仔細地評估每家公司面臨的關稅風險，而非全面推高整個市場。大型企業間的表現模式反映了不同程度的潛在關稅影響。在中國有大量製造業務的公司，如蘋果，對關稅豁免的反應最為積極，而那些業務模式更加多元化或服務導向的公司，反應則較不明顯。這種選擇性反應突顯了投資者對關稅影響的細緻分析，而非先前交易中所見的廣泛市場悲觀情緒。廣泛市場指數主要市場指數全部收於正值區間，但表面下的強度卻不盡相同。道瓊斯工業平均指數在必需消費類股和蘋果的助力下，領漲+0.87%。標普500指數緊隨其後，上漲+0.79%，而納斯達克指數儘管以科技為主，但漲幅較為溫和，僅+0.64%。代表小型類股的羅素2000指數的表現明顯落後，僅微漲+0.35%。這種相對弱勢反映了市場持續擔憂小型公司對經濟放緩、較高利率的脆弱性，以及吸收關稅帶來的成本提高的能力有限。費城半導體指數(SOX)上漲+1.18%，直接回應潛在的半導體豁免，但考慮到其永久性的不確定性，表現相對克制。各指數的表現趨勢揭示了所有時間框架上的惡化，表明儘管今日反彈，市場弱勢仍然持續。這一模式表明市場仍處於充滿挑戰的階段，今日的漲幅可能代表暫時的鬆一口氣而非情緒的確定性轉變。長期來看，持續的負面讀數突顯了對高關稅環境下，市場對經濟增長和企業獲利能力的持續擔憂。類股概況必需消費品類股以+1.71%的漲幅成為週一表現最佳的類股，其後是房地產+2.07%和公用事業+1.80%。這種通常與經濟不確定性相關的防禦性類股領先，表明投資者儘管今日整體市場走強，仍保持謹慎。必需消費類股現為4月份唯一呈現正向表現的標普500類股，顯示市場在近期波動中對穩定、防禦性業務的偏好。原物料(+1.20%)、醫療保健(+1.22%)和金融(+1.03%)也表現強勁，超越大盤。相比之下，能源(+0.35%)、非必需消費品(+0.29%)和資訊科技(+0.71%)表現落後，儘管後者受益於關稅豁免。這種混合的類股表現表明選擇性布局而非廣泛的風險偏好。類股表現模式反映大多數類股持續惡化，特別是在經濟敏感領域，如原物料和能源。這些循環性類股的負面讀數幅度，表明市場對經濟增長的擔憂加劇。今日交易中明顯的防禦性布局，與這種經濟擔憂模式一致，投資者偏好那些傳統上在增長較慢和不確定性較高時期表現較好的類股。國際市場全球市場呈現與美國市場類似的疲弱模式，大多數地區普遍呈現負面趨勢。亞洲市場表現出特別令人擔憂的模式，台灣、香港、中國、日本和南韓在最近時間框架中全部呈現持續負面讀數。亞洲主要經濟體這種普遍的疲弱趨勢表明，區域經濟的擔憂不僅限於美中貿易緊張局勢。歐洲市場呈現更為混合的局面。雖然大多數歐洲地區當前讀數為負，但英國和歐盟表現出一些歷史性的強勢，表明其比亞洲同行具有更大的韌性。然而，這些相對優勢的領域仍然有限，尚未轉化為廣泛的區域性優異表現。新興市場普遍表現不佳，新興歐洲和拉丁美洲呈現特別疲弱的模式。這些負面讀數在各種經濟體中的廣泛性，表明全球性的經濟擔憂，而非特定區域問題。這種全球惡化模式與對貿易壁壘升級可能對經濟產生更廣泛影響的擔憂一致，並引發對關稅緊張持續加劇可能導致全球協調性放緩的質疑。其他資產各年期國債價格上漲，殖利率下降，20年期國債價格上漲+0.71%。這種債券市場強勢反映了對避險資產的需求持續存在，儘管今日股市上漲。7-10年期國債價格上升+0.80%，短期國債價格上漲+0.22%，導致殖利率曲線略微平坦化。這些變動表明儘管今日股市反彈，投資者對經濟增長前景仍持續擔憂。債券市場的反應似乎與美國聯準會理事沃勒的重要評論一致，沃勒將關稅分解為兩種情境：一種是關稅維持較高水平較長時間，另一種是關稅被協商降低。沃勒表示，在任一情況下，降息可能都是適當的，他指出在較高關稅情境下降息將促進增長，或在協商降低關稅的情境下代表「好消息」的減輕。他將關稅通膨描述為「暫時性的」，這對市場具有重要的意義，表明即使關稅暫時推高通膨，美國聯準會也不一定會被迫降息。大宗商品價格漲跌互現，黃金價格在近期強勁上漲後下跌-0.57%。原油價格微幅上漲+0.30%，在近期大幅下跌後趨於穩定，因石油輸出國組織(OPEC)直接引用川普關稅作為因素，下調了2025年需求成長預測。農產品價格略微下跌-0.11%，工業金屬價格下跌-0.28%。貨幣市場顯示美元走弱，美元指數下跌-0.33%。儘管關稅的潛在通膨影響通常會支撐美元，但美元仍下跌。這種貨幣弱勢可能反映市場對美國聯準會降息的預期增加，特別是在美國聯準會理事沃勒評論關稅引起的通膨可能為「暫時性的」，且即使有較高關稅仍考慮降息之後。跨資產表現表明，市場正在為潛在經濟放緩而非通膨擔憂進行布局，儘管今日整體股市上漲，債券的強勢和防禦性類股仍占主導地位。這一模式與關稅實施可能對經濟成長造成挑戰，而非主要通膨擔憂的敘述一致。展望未來，市場將繼續權衡關稅政策的經濟影響與潛在貨幣政策反應。隨著美國聯準會官員現在直接評論關稅影響，投資者將密切關注政策發展和即將到來的獲利報告，尋找企業在這一不確定環境中韌性的線索。關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》 鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。Fed's Waller Calls Tariff Inflation "Transitory" as Markets Rally on Tech ExemptionsStocks close higher as Fed Governor signals rate cuts remain on table despite Trump's tariff policiesJoe Lu, CFA April 14, 2025MARKET OVERVIEWMarkets recovered some ground on Monday as investors assessed the latest developments in President Trump's tariff policies. Stocks finished higher after a volatile session, buoyed by a rally in technology names following the administration's surprise exemption of smartphones, computers, and semiconductors from recently announced reciprocal tariffs.The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed +0.87% (+312.08 points) to close at 40,524.79, while the S&P 500 advanced +0.79% to end at 5,405.97. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added +0.64% to finish at 16,831.48. All three major indexes experienced significant intraday swings, at times trading in negative territory before settling into gains. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's "fear gauge," retreated more than 6 points, indicating reduced market anxiety compared to last week's extreme levels.The unexpected tariff exemptions announced late Friday provided a much-needed catalyst for technology stocks, with Apple rising +2.21% and Dell jumping nearly 4%. However, the relief rally was tempered by subsequent statements from President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggesting the exemptions may not be permanent. According to Trump's Truth Social post, these products are "subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff 'bucket,'" introducing a new layer of uncertainty to an already complex situation.In a pivotal development, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that inflation from Trump's tariffs will likely be "transitory," signaling that interest rate reductions remain under consideration despite potential price pressures. "I can hear the howls already that this must be a mistake given what happened in 2021 and 2022. But just because it didn't work out once does not mean you should never think that way again," Waller said in his St. Louis speech, addressing concerns about repeating previous policy errors.Executive Summary:Fed Governor Waller indicated tariff-induced inflation would be "transitory," suggesting rate cuts remain on the table.Markets ended higher despite volatility as tech stocks rallied on tariff exemptions for smartphones and semiconductorsDow Jones added +0.78%, S&P 500 gained +0.79%, and Nasdaq rose +0.64% in choppy tradingApple shares jumped +2.21% leading tech gains, while Dell surged nearly 4% on the exemption newsConsumer Staples was the only S&P 500 sector positive for April, reflecting defensive positioning amid uncertaintyECONOMIC INDICATORSEconomic indicators showed continued deterioration, with investment duration exhibiting significant weakness across all timeframes. The decline in investment duration suggests that market participants are increasingly favoring shorter-term investments, reflecting heightened uncertainty about long-term economic prospects. This pattern typically emerges when investors anticipate potential economic challenges ahead.Corporate earnings also showed concerning patterns, with persistent negative readings across most timeframes. This indicates deteriorating profitability expectations, likely influenced by fears that tariffs will compress margins by increasing input costs. The consistency of these negative signals across multiple time periods suggests this is not merely a temporary phenomenon but a developing trend that could impact corporate performance for several quarters.TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIESThe largest U.S. companies showed mixed performance on Monday, with technology firms generally outperforming. Apple led the group with a significant gain of +2.21%, responding directly to the tariff exemptions that would benefit its supply chain. Alphabet (Google's parent company) also performed well, rising +1.23% as investors reassessed technology sector exposure.Conversely, several top companies experienced notable declines. Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) recorded the largest drop among the top 10, falling -2.22%. Amazon followed with a decline of -1.48%, while Broadcom dropped -1.97%. These mixed results highlight the selective nature of today's rally, with market participants carefully evaluating each company's exposure to tariff risks rather than bidding up the entire market.The performance patterns among top companies reflect varying degrees of potential tariff impact. Companies with extensive manufacturing in China, like Apple, responded most positively to the exemptions, while those with more diverse or service-oriented business models showed less pronounced reactions. This selective response underscores investors' nuanced analysis of tariff implications rather than the broad market pessimism seen in previous sessions.BROAD MARKET INDICESMajor market indices all finished in positive territory but showed varied strength beneath the surface. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led with a gain of +0.87%, helped by strength in its consumer staples components and Apple. The S&P 500 followed closely with a +0.79% advance, while the Nasdaq Composite, despite its technology concentration, recorded a more modest +0.64% increase.Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, significantly underperformed with a minimal gain of +0.35%. This relative weakness reflects continued concerns about small companies' vulnerability to economic slowdowns, higher interest rates, and limited ability to absorb increased costs from tariffs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose +1.18%, responding directly to the potential semiconductor exemptions but showing some restraint given the uncertainty about their permanence.The performance trend across indices reveals deterioration across all timeframes, indicating persistent market weakness despite today's bounce. This pattern suggests the market remains in a challenging phase, with today's gains potentially representing a relief rally rather than a definitive shift in sentiment. The continued negative readings across longer-term perspectives highlight ongoing concerns about economic growth and corporate profitability in a higher-tariff environment.SECTOR OVERVIEWConsumer Staples emerged as Monday's top-performing sector with a gain of +1.71%, followed closely by Real Estate at +2.07% and Utilities at +1.80%. This defensive sector leadership, typically associated with economic uncertainty, suggests investors remain cautious despite today's overall market strength. Consumer Staples is now the only S&P 500 sector positive for April, demonstrating the market's preference for stable, defensive businesses amid the recent volatility.Materials (+1.20%), Healthcare (+1.22%), and Financials (+1.03%) also showed strength, outpacing the broader market. In contrast, Energy (+0.35%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.29%), and Information Technology (+0.71%) underperformed despite the latter benefiting from tariff exemptions. This mixed sector performance indicates selective positioning rather than broad-based risk appetite.The sector performance patterns reflect continued deterioration across most sectors, particularly in economically sensitive areas like Materials and Energy. The magnitude of negative readings in these cyclical sectors suggests increased concerns about economic growth. The defensive positioning evident in today's trading aligns with this pattern of economic concern, with investors favoring sectors that traditionally outperform during periods of slower growth and higher uncertainty.INTERNATIONAL MARKETSGlobal markets showed similar patterns of weakness to U.S. markets, with negative trends prevalent across most regions. Asian markets displayed particularly troubling patterns, with Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Japan, and South Korea all showing consistently negative readings across recent timeframes. This widespread weakness throughout Asia's major economies suggests regional economic concerns beyond just U.S.-China trade tensions.European markets presented a more mixed picture. While most European regions showed negative current readings, the United Kingdom and European Union demonstrated some historical strength, suggesting greater resilience than their Asian counterparts. However, these pockets of relative strength remain limited and have not translated into broad regional outperformance.Emerging markets generally underperformed, with Emerging Europe and Latin America showing particularly weak patterns. The widespread nature of these negative readings across diverse economies suggests global economic concerns rather than region-specific issues. This global deterioration pattern aligns with fears about broader economic impacts from escalating trade barriers and raises questions about the potential for coordinated global slowdown if tariff tensions continue to increase.OTHER ASSETSTreasury prices rose across maturities, with the yields falling and the 20-year Treasury price increasing +0.71% . This bond market strength reflects continued demand for safe-haven assets despite today's equity market gains. The 7-10 year Treasury price rose +0.80%, while short-term Treasury prices gained +0.22%, causing a modest flattening of the yield curve. These moves suggest continued investor concern about economic growth prospects despite today's equity bounce.The bond market's reaction appears aligned with Fed Governor Waller's significant comments that broke down tariffs into two scenarios – one where they remain higher for longer, and another where they are negotiated lower. Waller indicated that rate cuts would likely be appropriate in either case, noting they would boost growth under the higher-tariff scenario or represent "good news" reductions under a negotiated lower-tariff outcome. His characterization of tariff inflation as "transitory" has significant market implications, suggesting the Fed won't necessarily be constrained from cutting rates even if tariffs temporarily push inflation higher.Commodities presented a mixed picture, with Gold prices declining -0.57% after recent strong gains. Crude Oil prices rose marginally by +0.30%, stabilizing after substantial recent declines as OPEC lowered its demand growth forecast for 2025, citing Trump's tariffs as a direct factor. Agricultural commodities declined slightly, falling -0.11%, while Industrial Metals dropped -0.28%.Currency markets showed the U.S. Dollar weakening, with the Dollar Index falling -0.33%. This decline came despite the potential inflationary impact of tariffs, which would typically support the dollar. The currency weakness may reflect growing market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, particularly after Fed Governor Waller's comments that tariff-induced inflation would likely be "transitory" and that rate cuts remain on the table even with higher tariffs.The cross-asset performance suggests markets are positioning for potential economic slowdown rather than inflation concerns, with bond strength and defensive equity sector leadership dominating despite today's overall equity market gains. This pattern aligns with the narrative of potential growth challenges from tariff implementation rather than primarily inflationary concerns.Looking ahead, markets will continue weighing the economic impact of tariff policies against potential monetary policy responses. With Fed officials now commenting directly on tariff implications, investors will closely monitor both policy developments and upcoming earnings reports for clues about corporate resilience in this uncertain environment.

全球資本流動顯示投資形式潛在結構性變化作者：Joe Lu, CFA 2025年4月12日 美東時間免責聲明：本文件僅供參考，不構成投資建議。一週市場觀點過去一週見證了一系列非比尋常的市場事件，可能預示全球投資模式根本性的轉變。雖然股市在經歷歷史性波動後趨於穩定，標普500指數創下自2023年11月以來最佳單週表現，但跨資產類別的整體情況揭示了可能正在進行更重大的結構性變化。同時，儘管股市上漲，美國國債殖利率仍繼續急劇攀升，債券市場釋出令人擔憂的訊號。10年期國債殖利率經歷了自2021年11月以來最顯著的單週飆升，而30年期國債殖利率則經歷了自1982年以來最大的單週上漲。股票上漲與債券價格下跌之間的這種異常背離挑戰了傳統的避險動態，並顯示全球資本配置可能發生結構性變化。最引人注目的發展是黃金突破每盎司3,200美元的歷史高位，完成了自2020年以來最佳單週表現，月漲幅高達+10.69%。在股市穩定的情況下，這種卓越表現暗示的不僅僅是典型的避險定位—它表明機構投資組合中可能重新評估美元的角色。MLIV Pulse調查強化了這一觀點，顯示投資者越來越傾向於降低美國資產曝險，轉而青睞歐洲和其他發達市場。美元指數跌破心理層面重要的100點位關卡，這是自2022年4月以來的首次跌破，進一步支持國際投資偏好正在改變的論點。市場策略師指出，美國的成長優勢似乎「終於消失」，投資者越來越多地轉向歐洲和亞洲資產。市場歷史性波動的政治層面，為已經複雜的投資格局增添了另一層不確定性。數名資深民主黨參議院黨員呼籲美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 針對與總統關稅公告及隨後暫停相關的潛在市場操縱和內線交易進行調查。圍繞這些政策決定的異常市場走勢，包括總統在宣布關稅暫停前幾小時在社交媒體上敦促投資者買入股票的發文，引起了治理方面的擔憂，可能進一步影響投資者對美國市場的信心。一週市場摘要：全球市場經歷極端波動後於週五反彈，標普500指數創下自2023年以來最佳單週表現儘管股市上漲，美國國債仍面臨壓力，10年期公債殖利率創下自2021年以來最大單週飆升金價突破3,200美元創歷史新高，在機構重新配置的推動下，創下自2020年以來最佳單週表現美元指數自2022年4月以來首次跌破關鍵的100點位，顯示全球資本流動可能出現根本性轉變本週重點清單強調通過黃金、國債空頭、原油空頭、波克夏海瑟威及其他優質防禦性價值股的防禦性配置重點清單亮點儘管週五上漲，美國市場的技術面仍大致呈現負面走勢。所有主要指數在多個時間框架中均顯示持續疲弱，防禦性行業如必需消費品和公用事業相對強勢，表明機構定位更傾向於資本保全而非成長優化。債券市場惡化促使我們從持有長期國債轉向短期國債債券，因為認識到政府債券的傳統避險功能在當前環境中運作不如預期。這與我們先前的立場相比，發生了顯著變化，反映了快速發展的市場動態。黃金黃金的市場結構已顯著增強，多個時間框架中呈現卓越的動能。突破每盎司3,200美元以上創歷史新高，確認了這一趨勢的強勢，季度和年度期間均顯示正面表現。黃金表現在季度時間框架內的變化率極為非凡，表明其上升趨勢顯著加速。這種加速動能的模式通常表明機構定位的重大轉變，而非短期戰術性移動。創紀錄價格與強勁交易量的結合，印證了這一走勢的重要性。當前市場結構表明，隨著全球資本尋求傳統美國資產的替代品，其將繼續保持強勢。由於通膨擔憂持續存在，且對美國資產的信心減弱，黃金卓越的動能似乎得到了超越典型避險需求的基本因素支持。長期利率對沖長期國債是所有資產類別中最令人擔憂的市場模式之一。當前趨勢顯示所有時間框架內持續疲弱，日線和週線表現尤為惡化。變化率確認了跨多個時間框架的負面動能加速。30年期國債殖利率經歷了自2020年以來最大的三日攀升，上漲近40個基點，在固定收益市場造成廣泛性的錯亂。這種惡化發生在美國債務全球需求動態變化的背景下。多個時間框架內負面趨勢的持續性表明，這不僅僅是短期波動，而可能是國債市場更重大的風險重新定價。原油對沖能源商品在部署對沖時表現出特別引人注目的結構。原油當前趨勢顯示所有時間框架內一致疲弱，過去一季度表現尤為不佳。變化率揭示了月度和季度期間加速疲弱的令人擔憂模式。儘管地緣政治緊張局勢通常會支撐能源價格，但這種惡化持續存在，顯示基本需求疲軟。市場結構顯示明確的阻力，每次嘗試反彈都遇到賣壓。由於經濟指標顯示全球成長放緩和貿易緊張局勢可能導致需求被破壞，儘管週五能源價格小幅上漲，但其模式似乎特別脆弱。波克夏·海瑟威公司波克夏·海瑟威是主要股票中表現最強勁的公司之一，其正向表現與大多數大型公司的普遍負面模式形成強烈對比。儘管最近市場動盪，日線讀數顯示強勁，週線和月線時間框架內則顯示出穩定的模式。變化率顯示週度和季度期間動能均有所改善。這種市場壓力下相對表現增強的模式，突顯該公司的防禦特性，以及市場在不確定時期將其視為優質持股的觀點。這種彈性與波克夏·海瑟威的業務模式一致，包括持有大量現金、多元化業務曝險，以及相對於其他大型公司而言，較為有限的國際貿易脆弱性。隨著投資者在經濟不確定性中越來越尋求品質和穩定性，波克夏·海瑟威的市場模式顯示其持續相對強勢。重點清單調整我們最重大的調整是國債定位的完全逆轉，從之前因經濟衰退的壓力而青睞長期國債，轉而考慮到貿易戰緊張局勢，將國債曝險視為關鍵風險領域。這一顯著轉變反映了債券市場動態的急劇惡化，以及本週全球對美國債務工具需求的潛在結構性變化。鑑於傳統股票對沖策略在當前市場環境中的效果降低，我們也減少了對其的重視。股票與傳統對沖工具之間不尋常的相關性模式降低了它們的保護價值，使我們傾向於通過上述資產進行更直接的防禦性定位。展望未來第一季財報季將於下週隨著主要金融機構的報告發布而加速來臨。這些結果不僅將作為回顧性的績效指標受到審視，還將成為在快速發展的貿易政策環境中的前瞻性指引。管理階層對於供應鏈調整、定價策略和資本配置計劃的評論，可能比實際季度數字更具分量。債券市場行為尤其值得關注，因為股市上漲與債券價格下跌之間的異常背離表明潛在的結構性問題，而非典型的風險動態。10年期美國國債殖利率經歷了自2021年11月以來最大的單週增長，創造了不尋常的跨資產關係，可能預示全球資本流動更深刻的轉變。我們將密切關注黃金在飆升至歷史高位後的表現，因為強勢的延續將進一步驗證脫離傳統美國資產並進行大幅重新配置的論點。當前模式顯示為機構而非散戶的累積，這通常比短期投機性定位更具持久性和趨勢持續性。關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》 鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為美籍台灣人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。Major Market Shift Intensifies as Gold Surges and Investors Reconsider US Asset AllocationsGlobal Capital Flows Signal Potential Structural Change in Investment LandscapeBy Joe Lu, CFA April 12, 2025Disclaimer: This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.Market PerspectiveThe past week has witnessed an extraordinary sequence of market events that may signal a fundamental shift in global investment patterns. While equity markets stabilized after historic volatility, with the S&P 500 posting its best weekly performance since November 2023, the cross-asset picture reveals potentially more significant structural changes underway.Meanwhile, the bond market delivered a concerning message as Treasury yields continued their sharp ascent despite equity market gains. The 10-year Treasury yield experienced its most significant weekly spike since November 2021, while the 30-year saw its largest weekly surge since 1982. This unusual divergence between rising stocks and falling bond prices challenges traditional safe-haven dynamics and suggests potential structural changes in global capital allocation.The most telling development has been gold's surge to record highs above $3,200 per ounce, completing its best week since 2020 with a remarkable +10.69% monthly gain. This exceptional performance amid equity market stabilization suggests something beyond typical risk-off positioning—it indicates a potential reassessment of the dollar's role in institutional portfolios. The MLIV Pulse survey reinforces this view, showing investors increasingly looking to reduce US asset exposure in favor of European and other developed markets.The dollar index's plunge below the psychologically important 100 level, its first breach since April 2022, further supports the thesis of changing international investment preferences. Market strategists note the US's growth advantage appears to have "finally disappeared," with investors increasingly moving toward European and Asian assets.The political dimension of the market's historical volatility has added another layer of uncertainty to an already complex investment landscape. Several senior Senate Democrats have called for an SEC investigation into potential market manipulation and insider trading related to the presidential tariff announcements and subsequent pause. The unusual market movements surrounding these policy decisions, including the president's social media post urging investors to buy stocks just hours before announcing the tariff pause, have raised governance concerns that could further impact investor confidence in US markets.Executive Summary:Global markets experienced extreme volatility culminating in Friday's rebound, with S&P 500 recording best week since 2023Treasury bonds remained under pressure with 10-year yield seeing largest weekly spike since 2021 despite equity gainsGold surged to all-time high above $3,200, recording best week since 2020 amid significant institutional reallocationDollar index plunged below key 100 level for first time since April 2022, signaling potential fundamental shift in global capital flowsThe focus list this week emphasizes defensive positioning through gold, Treasury bond shorts, crude oil shorts, Berkshire Hathaway, and other quality defensive value stocks.Focus List HighlightsThe technical landscape remains broadly negative across US markets despite Friday's gains. All major indices show persistent weakness across multiple timeframes, with relative strength in defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Utilities, suggesting institutional positioning toward capital preservation rather than growth optimization. The bond market deterioration has prompted our significant positioning shift from long Treasury exposure to short Treasury positioning, recognizing that the traditional safety function of government bonds is not operating as expected in the current environment. This represents a notable change from our previous stance and reflects the rapidly evolving market dynamics.GoldGold's market structure has strengthened considerably, with exceptional momentum developing across multiple timeframes. The breakout to all-time highs above $3,200 confirms the strength of this trend, with positive performance evident across quarterly and annual periods.The rate of change in gold's performance has been extraordinary over the quarterly timeframe, signaling a remarkable acceleration in its uptrend. This pattern of intensifying momentum typically indicates a major shift in institutional positioning rather than short-term tactical movement. The combination of record prices and strong volume validates the significance of this move.The current market structure suggests continued strength as global capital seeks alternatives to traditional US assets. With inflation concerns persisting and confidence in US assets waning, gold's exceptional momentum appears well-supported by fundamental drivers beyond typical safe-haven demand.Long Duration Interest Rate HedgesLong-duration Treasury bonds display one of the most concerning market patterns across all asset classes. Current trends show persistent weakness across all timeframes, with particularly acute deterioration in daily and weekly performance.The rate of change confirms accelerating negative momentum across several timeframes. The 30-year Treasury yield has experienced its largest three-day climb since 2020, rising nearly 40 basis points and creating widespread dislocations in fixed income markets.This deterioration occurs against a backdrop of changing global demand dynamics for US debt. The persistence of negative trends across multiple timeframes suggests this is not merely a short-term fluctuation but could be potentially a more significant repricing of risk in the Treasury market.Crude Oil HedgesEnergy commodities display a particularly compelling structure for deploying a hedge. Current trends for crude oil show consistent weakness across all timeframes, with especially poor performance over the past quarter.The rate of change reveals a concerning pattern of accelerating weakness in monthly and quarterly periods. This deterioration persists despite geopolitical tensions that would typically support energy prices, suggesting fundamental demand weakness.The market structure shows clear resistance levels, with each attempted rally meeting selling pressure. With economic indicators suggesting slowing global growth and potential demand destruction from trade tensions, the pattern for energy appears particularly vulnerable despite Friday's modest gain.Berkshire HathawayBerkshire Hathaway presents one of the strongest profiles among major equities, with positive performance standing in stark contrast to the broadly negative patterns across most large companies. Current trends show strength in daily readings with stable patterns across weekly and monthly timeframes despite recent market turbulence.The rate of change reveals improving momentum in weekly and quarterly periods. This pattern of strengthening relative performance during market stress highlights the company's defensive characteristics and market perception as a quality holding during uncertain periods.The resilience aligns with Berkshire's business model, including significant cash holdings, diverse business exposure, and relatively limited international trade vulnerabilities compared to other large-cap companies. With investors increasingly seeking quality and stability amid economic uncertainty, Berkshire's market pattern suggests continued relative strength.Focus List AdjustmentsOur most significant adjustment has been the complete reversal in Treasury positioning, from previously favoring long-duration Treasuries due to recessionary pressures to now identifying Treasury exposure as a key risk area given trade war tensions. This notable shift reflects the dramatic deterioration in bond market dynamics and the potential structural change in global demand for US debt instruments this week.We have also decreased our emphasis on traditional equity hedging strategies given their diminished effectiveness in the current market environment. The unusual correlation patterns between equities and traditional hedging vehicles has reduced their protective value, leading us to favor more direct defensive positioning through the assets highlighted above.Looking AheadFirst-quarter earnings season accelerates next week with reports from major financial institutions. These results will be scrutinized not just for backward-looking performance metrics but for forward guidance amid the rapidly evolving trade policy landscape. Management commentary regarding supply chain adjustments, pricing strategies, and capital allocation plans will likely carry more weight than the actual quarterly numbers.Bond market behavior deserves particular attention as the unusual divergence between rising equity markets and falling bond prices suggests potential structural issues rather than typical risk dynamics. The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced its largest weekly increase since November 2021, creating unusual cross-asset relationships that may signal more profound shifts in global capital flows.We will closely monitor gold's behavior following its surge to all-time highs, as continuation of strength would further validate the thesis of significant reallocation away from traditional US assets. The current pattern suggests institutional rather than retail accumulation, which typically proves more durable and trend-persistent than shorter-term speculative positioning.

標普500指數創下2023年以來最佳單週表現，投資者撤離美國資產導致黃金創下歷史新高Joe Lu，CFA 2025年4月11日 美東時間市場概況美國股市週五反彈，在全球貿易和投資流動的基本擔憂加深的情況下，歷史性波動的一週仍以積極的態勢收盤。標普500指數上漲+1.81%至5,363.36點，而道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲+1.56%至40,212.71點，上漲619.05點。科技股為主的納斯達克綜合指數表現更佳，上漲+2.06%至16,724.46點。這些漲幅為市場歷史上最動盪的一週之一畫上句點，儘管貿易緊張局勢持續，標普500指數仍創下自2023年11月以來最佳單週表現。波士頓聯邦儲備銀行行長蘇珊·柯林斯的評論支持了當日的漲幅，她表示如有需要，央行「絕對會準備好」幫助穩定市場，儘管她指出市場目前仍「運作良好」。這一保證為投資者提供了許多人視為潛在的「聯準會保護」，幫助緩解了一些市場焦慮。摩根大通CEO傑米·戴蒙強化了這一預期，表示他預計市場變動可能促使聯準會介入。儘管本週出現戲劇性的波動，三大平均指數均出現顯著的漲幅。標普500指數在一週內上漲+5.7%，道瓊斯指數上漲近+5%，而納斯達克指數飆升+7.3%，創下自2022年以來最佳表現。標普500指數的單週內超過10%的交易範圍堪比疫情最嚴重時期的價格波動。市場策略師將市場走勢描述為「雲霄飛車」，他們指出，儘管近期技術面有所進展，但不確定性和風險仍然居高不下。摘要：美國市場週五反彈，儘管貿易局勢持續緊張，標普500指數仍上漲+1.81%，創下2023年以來最佳單週表現最新調查顯示，儘管川普暫緩關稅，81%的投資者計劃維持或減少其美國資產曝險黃金飆升至3,200美元以上的歷史新高，創下自2020年以來最佳單週表現，反映投資者對美國資產信心動搖美元指數跌破100關鍵水平，而國債收益率繼續攀升，顯示外國投資者可能正在撤離美國聯準會官員表示，如果市場狀況惡化，準備進行干預，但目前認為市場「運行良好」經濟指標經濟基本面在多項指標上繼續惡化，聯準會官員現在公開下調經濟預測，以應對貿易緊張局勢。紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長約翰·威廉姆斯大幅削減了對美國經濟的展望，預測今年的GDP增長將放緩至「略低於1%」，而通膨率將上升至3.5%至4%之間。他還預測，由於移民減少和貿易不確定性，失業率將上升至5%。這些估計數字與聯準會3月份預測的1.7%成長率和2.8%通膨率相比，大幅調降。今日發布的消費者信心數據支持了這一悲觀觀點，密歇根大學調查顯示消費者信心跌至2022年6月以來的最低水平。更為令人擔憂的是通膨預期的飆升，一年期通膨預期值從3月的4.9%大幅躍升至6.7%——這是自1981年以來的最高水平。五年期通膨預期值上升至4.4%，為1991年以來最高，表明關稅擔憂正在成為長期預期中的重要因素。這一消費者情緒的急劇下滑表明，即使在周三關稅政策調整前，消費者已經感到不安。明尼阿波利斯聯邦儲備銀行（Minneapolis Fed）行長尼爾·卡什卡里Neel Kashkari 強調了這一轉變，指出「世界各地的投資者過去視美國為最佳投資地點」，但最近的市場走勢表明「美國不再是世界上最具吸引力的投資地點」。美國十大公司週五，美國最大的幾間公司多數表現積極，10家最大公司中有8家股價上漲。科技巨頭蘋果公司領漲，大幅上漲+4.06%至198.15美元，儘管市場擔憂其受到中國關稅的影響，本週漲幅仍達+5.4%。另一方面，據報導，隨著中國對美國進口產品提高關稅，特斯拉已從其中國網站上移除了美國製造的Model S和Model X車型的「訂購」按鈕，凸顯了貿易戰升級對業務的直接影響。摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）銀行表現同樣出色，上漲+4.00%，季度營收達460.1億美元，超過分析師預期的441.1億美元。雖然該銀行巨頭的股票交易員在第一季度創下創紀錄的收入，但其CEO對美國經濟前景持謹慎態度，警告仍存在相當大的動盪。其他主要銀行表現好壞參半，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）淨利息收入未達預期，因為疲軟的貸款需求影響了該銀行的最大收入來源，而摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley’s）的股票交易員第一季度收入超過了分析師的預測。十大公司中表現最強的是博通，飆升+5.59%，本週累計漲幅達+24.37%。輝達在「七大科技巨頭」股票中表現最佳，儘管週五的漲幅較為溫和，僅上漲+2.5%，但本週股價仍上漲+17%。少數下跌的公司包括Meta Platforms下跌-0.50%，以及特斯拉下跌-0.06%，因為特斯拉將美國製造的汽車撤出中國市場，並在美國推出更便宜的Cybertruck車款，以適應新的貿易局勢。廣泛市場指數更廣泛的市場各主要指數表現一致，所有基準指數當日均上漲。納斯達克綜合指數領漲+2.06%，其次是標普500指數上漲+1.81%，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲+1.56%。這些漲幅促成了顯著的單週漲幅，標普500指數的單週漲幅+5.7%，為2023年11月以來表現最佳。納斯達克指數本週上漲+7.3%，創下2022年11月以來最強勁的單週表現，而道瓊斯指數在五天內上漲近+5%。小型股表現特別強勁，羅素2000指數週五上漲+2.41%，本週漲幅接近+11%。這一表現尤為引人注目，因為小型公司通常國際多元化程度較低，可能面臨貿易中斷的更大挑戰。然而，小型股可能受益於市場認為它們相比一些大型跨國公司，對中國直接貿易的曝險較小。雖然市場反彈令人印象深刻，但許多策略師仍保持謹慎。因為能見度有限，情緒似乎是市場主要驅動因素。關稅暫緩提高了對談判解決途徑的希望，表明政府正關注市場，但投資者現在正在觀望其中一些貿易協議的具體內容。一些市場觀察家認為市場可能已經觸底，但在大幅反彈後，風險回報比可能不是特別吸引人，尤其是在中美貿易戰愈演愈烈的情況下。類股概況週五市場反彈中出現明顯的類股轉動，原材料類股領漲+2.97%，其次是資訊科技上漲+2.03%和能源上漲+2.48%。這一轉動模式反映了能源領域的潛在機會，因為川普總統正推動貿易夥伴購買更多美國能源，以減少貿易順差並可能避免更高關稅。財政部長貝森特 (Scott Bessent) 特別強調了日本、韓國和台灣可能投資阿拉斯加旗艦液化天然氣項目的可能性，作為縮小貿易逆差並避免更高關稅的方式。表現最弱的類股是房地產，僅上漲+1.00%，其次是通訊服務上漲+0.85%和非必需消費品上漲+0.97%。鑑於市場擔心關稅導致進口價格上升可能對消費者產生潛在影響，非必需消費品的表現相對溫和。整體而言，本週科技、工業和金融類股領漲，因為投資者消化了「雲霄飛車式」的關稅政策公告。分析長期趨勢，大多數類股在多個時間範圍內都表現出持續疲軟。能源和原材料類股表現出最令人擔憂的模式，在季度和年度期間持續負面趨勢。這些類股面臨全球貿易中斷和經濟增長預期降低的特殊挑戰。公用事業類股表現出最強勁的長期表現模式，與投資者在更廣泛的經濟不確定性中尋求防禦性定位相一致。這種類股轉動模式表明，儘管今日股市普遍上漲，投資者仍保持高度謹慎。國際市場全球市場表現好壞參半，新興亞洲市場以+3.93%的漲幅成為表現最佳的市場。儘管與美國的貿易緊張局勢升級，中國仍上漲+3.54%，可能反映了市場猜測，極端關稅水平最終將迫使談判而非持續升級。然而，川普-習近平會面的前景似乎越來越渺茫，據與李強總理會面的專家表示，中國表示「絕不會被強迫到談判桌前」。歐洲市場表現同樣良好，在歐盟宣布其貿易代表將於週日前往華盛頓後，該地區上漲+2.68%。這一行動緊隨川普要求歐盟購買3500億美元的美國能源以消除其與美國的貿易順差，否則將面臨20%的關稅稅率，突顯了政府將能源出口與貿易談判聯繫起來的策略。已開發市場和新興市場之間的差異依然明顯，新興市場在多個時間框架內普遍表現出較弱的趨勢模式。MLIV Pulse調查強化了這一趨勢，顯示投資者正尋求避開美國資產，轉而青睞歐洲和其他發達市場，超過四分之一的受訪者表示，他們正在減少對美國資產的投資，其程度超過總統公布全球關稅之前的預期。其他資產跨資產表現顯示全球投資模式發生了巨大變化，黃金成為美國資產信心減弱的主要受益者。黃金飆升+1.91%至3,200美元以上的歷史新高，創下自2020年以來最佳單週表現。貴金屬的上漲顯示對美國資產的偏好發生了變化，美國的信心明顯動搖，投資者正尋求多元化。黃金年初至今已上漲約24%。相比之下，國債價格繼續下跌，10年期國債價格下跌-0.56%，收益率飆升至4.497%。這比週一3.87%的低點大幅上升66個基點，創下自2021年11月以來收益率最大的單週漲幅之一。30年期國債收益率創下自1982年以來最大的單週漲幅。市場分析師表示，在國債穩定並開始正常運行之前，風險資產將繼續面臨困境。債券市場的崩潰使國債作為世界避險資產的地位受到質疑，因為國債本週與股市一起下滑，促使投資者轉向其他資產。美元指數大幅走弱，下跌-0.90%，自2022年4月以來首次跌破100關鍵水平。金融策略師表示，美國對世界其他地區的增長優勢已經消失，投資者越來越多地轉向歐洲和亞洲資產。一些市場觀察家將市場動盪描述為將美國特殊主義轉變為「美國否定論」，建議投資者在美國和中國緩和貿易戰且聯準會介入前，出售任何上漲股票。在大宗商品空間，比特幣表現強勁，上漲+5.53%，原油價格上漲+1.75%，交易價格約為61美元/桶。跨資產類別的劇烈變化凸顯出市場仍然情緒激動，在未解決的貿易緊張局勢、收益不確定性和宏觀經濟逆風中仍在尋找立足點。雖然本週的漲幅令人鼓舞，但不應被視為明確的轉折點。關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為美籍台灣人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。Markets Close Historic Week with Solid Gains Despite Trade War EscalationS&P 500 Notches Best Week Since 2023 as Investor Exodus from U.S. Assets Sends Gold to Record HighsJoe Lu, CFA April 11, 2025MARKET OVERVIEWU.S. equity markets rallied on Friday, closing a historically volatile week on a positive note even as underlying concerns about global trade and investment flows deepened. The S&P 500 Index advanced +1.81% to 5,363.36, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +1.56% to 40,212.71, adding 619.05 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a gain of +2.06% to close at 16,724.46. These gains capped what has been one of the most tumultuous weeks in market history, with the S&P 500 posting its best weekly performance since November 2023 despite the ongoing trade tensions.The day's gains were supported by comments from Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins indicating the central bank "would absolutely be prepared" to help stabilize markets if needed, though she noted markets are still "functioning well" for now. This reassurance provided what many investors saw as a potential "Fed put" that helped ease some market anxiety. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon reinforced this expectation, saying he anticipates market movements that could prompt Fed intervention.Despite the week's dramatic swings, the three major averages all notched substantial weekly gains. The S&P 500 jumped +5.7% for the week, the Dow gained nearly +5%, and the Nasdaq surged +7.3% for its best week since 2022. The S&P 500's more than 10% intra-week trading range rivals the sharp price swings seen during the depths of the pandemic. Market strategists have described the market action as a "roller coaster," noting that while there has been some recent technical progress, uncertainty and risks remain high.Executive Summary:U.S. markets rebounded Friday, with S&P 500 gaining +1.81% to cap its best week since 2023 despite ongoing trade tensionsRecent survey shows 81% of investors plan to keep or decrease U.S. asset exposure despite Trump's tariff pauseGold surged to all-time high above $3,200, posting best week since 2020 amid shaken investor confidence in U.S. assetsDollar index plunged below key 100 level while Treasury yields continued rising, signaling potential foreign investor exodusFed officials ready to intervene if market conditions become disorderly, though currently see markets "functioning well"ECONOMIC INDICATORSThe economic backdrop continues to deteriorate across multiple measures, with Federal Reserve officials now openly lowering their economic forecasts in response to trade tensions. New York Fed President John Williams dramatically cut his outlook for the U.S. economy, predicting GDP growth will slow to "somewhat below 1%" this year while inflation rises to between 3.5% and 4%. He also projected unemployment will rise to 5% due to reduced immigration and trade uncertainties. These estimates represent significant downgrades from the Fed's March projections of 1.7% growth and 2.8% inflation.Consumer sentiment data released today supported this pessimistic view, with the University of Michigan survey showing sentiment tumbled to its lowest level since June 2022. More alarming was the surge in inflation expectations, with one-year expectations jumping to 6.7% from 4.9% in March—the highest level since 1981. Five-year inflation expectations rose to 4.4%, the highest since 1991, suggesting tariff concerns are becoming embedded in longer-term expectations. This dramatic plunge in consumer sentiment indicates consumers were already feeling queasy even before Wednesday's tariff policy shift.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari highlighted this shift, noting that "investors around the world have viewed America as the best place to invest," but recent market movements suggest "America no longer is the most attractive place in the world to invest." TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIESThe largest U.S. companies showed mostly positive performance on Friday, with 8 of the 10 largest companies posting gains. Technology giant Apple led the group with a significant advance of +4.06% to $198.15, putting the stock on pace for a weekly gain of +5.4% despite concerns about its exposure to the China tariffs. The company reportedly removed the "order" button from its China website for U.S.-built Model S and Model X vehicles as China raised tariffs on American imports, highlighting the immediate business impacts of the escalating trade war.JPMorgan Chase also performed well, gaining +4.00% after reporting quarterly revenues of $46.01 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $44.11 billion. While the banking giant's stock traders took in a record haul in the first quarter, its CEO struck a cautious tone about prospects for the U.S. economy, warning about considerable turbulence. Other major banks showed mixed results, with Wells Fargo missing estimates for net interest income as soft loan demand hurt the bank's largest revenue stream, while Morgan Stanley's stock-traders delivered first-quarter revenue that exceeded analyst predictions.The day's strongest performer among the top 10 was Broadcom, which surged +5.59%, capping an extraordinary weekly gain of +24.37%. NVIDIA was the top performer among the "Magnificent Seven" stocks for the week, gaining +17% despite Friday's more modest +2.5% advance. Among the few decliners were Meta Platforms, which fell -0.50%, and Tesla, which edged lower by -0.06% as it pulled U.S.-made cars from the Chinese market and added a cheaper Cybertruck trim in the U.S. to adjust to the new trade realities.BROAD MARKET INDICESThe broader market showed consistent performance across major indices, with all primary benchmarks posting gains for the day. The Nasdaq Composite led with a +2.06% advance, followed by the S&P 500 at +1.81% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at +1.56%. These gains contributed to significant weekly advances, with the S&P 500 posting a +5.7% weekly gain, its best since November 2023. The Nasdaq rose +7.3% for the week, marking its strongest weekly performance since November 2022, while the Dow added nearly +5% over the five-day period.Small-cap stocks showed particularly strong performance, with the Russell 2000 advancing +2.41% on Friday and posting a weekly gain of nearly +11%. This outperformance is notable given that smaller companies typically have less international diversification and might be expected to face greater challenges from trade disruptions. However, small-caps may be benefiting from perceptions that they have less exposure to direct China trade than some large multinational corporations.While the market's rebound has been impressive, many strategists remain cautious. Sentiment appears to be the main market driver as there is little visibility. The tariff pause raised hopes for a path to negotiated resolutions and that the administration is paying attention to the markets, but investors are now waiting to see what some of these trade deals will look like. Some market observers believe there's a decent chance the bottom is in, but following the sharp rally off the lows, the risk-reward trade-off may not look particularly compelling, especially with the intensifying trade war with China.SECTOR OVERVIEWFriday's market rebound saw strong sector rotation, with Materials leading gains at +2.97%, followed by Information Technology at +2.03% and Energy at +2.48%. This rotation pattern reflected potential opportunities in the energy sector as President Trump pushed trade partners to buy more U.S. energy to reduce their trade surpluses and potentially avoid higher tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent specifically highlighted the possibility of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan investing in a flagship LNG project in Alaska as a way to narrow trade deficits and avoid higher tariff rates.The weakest sector was Real Estate, which gained just +1.00%, followed by Communication Services at +0.85% and Consumer Discretionary at +0.97%. The relatively modest performance of Consumer Discretionary is particularly notable given concerns about potential consumer impacts from higher import prices due to tariffs. For the week as a whole, Technology, Industrials, and Financials led gains as investors processed the rollercoaster of tariff announcements.Examining longer-term trends, most sectors show persistent weakness across multiple timeframes. Energy and Materials sectors demonstrate the most concerning patterns, with persistent negative trends over quarterly and annual periods. These sectors face particular challenges from global trade disruptions and reduced economic growth expectations. The Utilities sector shows the strongest long-term performance pattern, consistent with investors seeking defensive positioning amid the broader economic uncertainty. This sector rotation pattern suggests investors remain highly cautious despite today's broad gains.INTERNATIONAL MARKETSGlobal markets showed mixed performance, with emerging Asian markets standing out as the top performer with a gain of +3.93%. China advanced +3.54% despite the escalating trade tensions with the U.S., possibly reflecting speculation that extreme tariff levels will ultimately force negotiation rather than continued escalation. However, prospects for a Trump-Xi meeting appear increasingly remote, with China indicating it will not be coerced into coming to the negotiation table, according to experts meeting with Premier Li Qiang this week.European markets also performed well, with the region gaining +2.68% after the European Union announced its trade representative would travel to Washington on Sunday. This follows Trump's demand that the EU buy $350 billion of American energy to erase its trade surplus with the U.S. or face a 20% tariff rate, highlighting the administration's strategy of linking energy exports to trade negotiations.The divergence between developed and emerging markets remains pronounced, with emerging markets generally showing weaker trend patterns across multiple timeframes. The MLIV Pulse survey reinforces this trend, showing investors are looking to shun U.S. assets in favor of Europe and other developed markets, with more than a quarter of respondents saying they're curbing their investment in U.S. assets more than they had anticipated before the president unveiled global tariffs earlier this month.OTHER ASSETSCross-asset performance revealed a dramatic shift in global investment patterns, with gold emerging as the primary beneficiary of waning confidence in U.S. assets. Gold surged +1.91% to a record high above $3,200 per ounce, capping its best week since 2020. The precious metal's rise signals a shift in appetite for U.S. assets, with confidence in the U.S. clearly shaken and investors looking to diversify. Gold has now gained approximately 24% year-to-date.In stark contrast, Treasury prices continued their decline, with the 10-year Treasury price falling -0.56% as yields surged to 4.497%. This represents a massive 66 basis point increase since Monday's low of 3.87%, marking one of the biggest weekly yield spikes since November 2021. The 30-year Treasury yield saw its biggest weekly surge since 1982. Market analysts suggest that until Treasuries stabilize and start to behave normally, risk assets will struggle. The rout in bonds has cast doubt on Treasuries' status as the world's safe haven as they slid along with the stock market this week, sending investors into alternative assets.The U.S. Dollar Index weakened dramatically, falling -0.90% to break below the psychologically important 100 level for the first time since April 2022. Financial strategists note that the U.S.'s growth advantage to the rest of the world has finally disappeared, with investors increasingly moving toward European and Asian assets. Some market observers have characterized the market upheaval as turning U.S. exceptionalism into "U.S. repudiation," suggesting investors sell any stock rallies until the U.S. and China de-escalate the trade war and the Fed steps in.In the commodity space, Bitcoin showed strong performance with a +5.53% gain, while crude oil prices rose +1.75% to trade around $61 per barrel. The dramatic shifts across asset classes underscore that markets remain emotionally charged and still searching for footing amid unresolved trade tensions, earnings uncertainty, and macroeconomic headwinds. While this week's gains are encouraging, they shouldn't be mistaken for a clear turning point.

中國關稅確認達145%，道指暴跌1,000點Joe Lu，CFA 2025年4月10日美東時間市場概況由於投資者重新評估川普總統關稅策略的影響，美國股市週四出現大幅逆轉，回吐了週三歷史性反彈的近一半漲幅。隨著中國商品累計關稅率達145%的細節浮出水面（包括最近宣布的125%關稅，以及加上先前實施的20%芬太尼相關關稅），因此股市加速下挫。道瓊斯工業平均指數暴跌1,014.79點，或-2.5%，收於39,593.66點，而標普500指數下跌-3.46%，收盤於5,268.05點。那斯達克綜合指數在週三創下歷史第二佳表現後，但最終下跌-4.31%，收於16,387.31點。週三領漲的小型股遭受最嚴重跌幅，羅素2000指數暴跌-7.93%。交易量依然異常高，週四成為近期歷史上交易量最大的日子之一，投資者紛紛調整投資組合。市場情緒迅速轉變，投資者更冷靜地評估關稅形勢的影響。由於政策細節持續快速演變，從根本上改變投資者看法，145%中國關稅率的不確定性使確立市場底部或頂部變得異常困難。科技公司損失尤為嚴重，蘋果下跌-4.2%，特斯拉下跌-7.3%，輝達下跌近-6%，Meta Platforms下跌近-7%。市場動盪之際，出現證據表明債券市場混亂在川普修改關稅策略的決定中發揮了關鍵作用。債券價格迅速下跌和相應的收益率飆升，有效地影響了政府的關稅實施策略。10年期美國國債收益率出現2001年以來最快三日上漲，在固定收益市場造成廣泛混亂，威脅更廣泛的金融穩定。川普本人承認市場在政策轉變前表現「焦躁不安」，表明他意識到金融市場壓力。儘管週四市場回落，川普表示他並未排除延長針對大多數國家的90天關稅暫停期。川普在內閣會議上表示：「我們到時候會看情況」。與此同時，歐盟宣布對美國商品實施90天暫停徵收關稅的措施，同時保留在談判不理想時恢復反制措施的權利。現行關稅結構包括對所有來自中國的商品徵收145%的關稅，對鋁、汽車以及未納入USMCA美墨加協定的加拿大和墨西哥的商品徵收25%的關稅，以及對所有其他進口商品徵收10%的關稅。摘要：道瓊斯工業平均指數暴跌1,014.79點（-2.5%），標普500指數下跌-3.46%，回吐週三歷史性漲幅的大部分債券市場動盪在川普轉變關稅策略中扮演關鍵角色，10年期美國國債收益率出現2001年以來最大三日漲幅白宮確認對中國商品總關稅率達145%（125%的新關稅加上20%芬太尼相關的關稅），實質上切斷大部分美中貿易通貨膨脹出現意外改善，3月消費者物價指數下跌0.1%，12個月通膨率降至2.4%，但考慮到關稅變化，經濟學家視數據為「回顧性」歐盟宣布對美國商品實施相應90天關稅暫停，多國談判開始經濟指標週四的經濟數據呈現複雜景象，通貨膨脹報告出乎意料地出現正面結果，與前瞻性指標持續負面趨勢形成對比。消費者物價指數在3月份經季節調整後下跌-0.1%，使12個月通膨率降至2.4%，低於2月的2.8%和預期的2.6%。核心通膨（不包括食品和能源）當月僅上漲0.1%，使年率達到2.8%—這是自2021年3月以來的最低水平。這一意外的通膨改善是由能源價格下滑推動的，汽油價格下跌-6.3%，以及住房成本漲幅放緩，3月僅上漲0.2%，12個月漲幅為4%—這是自2021年11月以來的最小漲幅。考慮到近日貿易政策的重大變化，這一正面的通膨數據似乎主要具有回顧意義。展望未來，隨著關稅驅動的價格上漲開始滲透到通膨數據中，而經濟活動仍然疲軟，美國聯準會可能面臨艱難的權衡。儘管這些回顧性通膨數據呈現正向結果，更廣泛的經濟前瞻性指標持續顯示令人擔憂的趨勢。在所有時間框架內投資期限仍然嚴重偏負值，表明對長期經濟增長的持續悲觀。企業獲利趨勢在當前和近期時間段內持續呈現負面讀數，突顯了隨著企業吸收關稅帶來的更高投入成本，對利潤率的持續擔憂。川普的關稅預計將在2025年帶來大量額外的聯邦稅收，實際上代表著顯著的稅收增加，意味著企業和消費者將承擔大幅成本增加。消費者強度也在所有時間框架內持續顯示疲弱，表明隨著關稅引起的價格上漲滲透經濟，支出可能面臨越來越大的壓力。展望未來，雖然90天關稅延遲提供暫時緩解，但並不能從根本上減少繼續使商業規劃和投資決策複雜化的潛在不確定性。美國十大公司由於投資者重新評估美中貿易關係實質中斷的影響，市場最大公司經歷了顯著下跌。因擔憂市場經濟環境減緩對全球廣告支出的影響，Meta Platforms在大型科技股中領跌，暴跌-6.74%。博通緊隨其後，下跌-6.94%，此前在週三的反彈中表現最強，突顯了在對亞洲供應鏈有重大暴露的半導體股中情緒迅速轉變。而特斯拉則因投資者權衡其複雜的全球製造佈局和重大中國市場影響力，在昨日特殊漲幅後下跌-7.27%。蘋果下跌-4.24%，輝達下跌-5.91%，亞馬遜回落-5.17%，都回吐了週三漲幅的大部分。微軟表現出相對韌性，跌幅較為溫和，為-2.34%，而Alphabet下跌-3.71%，原因是投資者青睞那些對實體供應鏈較少直接接觸的公司。波克夏·海瑟威繼續展現其防禦性特徵，僅下跌-1.07%，大幅跑贏大盤，表明在不確定性加劇的情況下，投資者正轉向更穩定的商業模式。因美中貿易關係實質中斷的潛在經濟影響引發市場對貸款增長和信貸質量的擔憂，摩根大通下跌-3.09%。大多數市場領導者的劇烈一日逆轉，突顯了對週三樂觀情緒的快速重新評估，以及對90天關稅暫停在根本改變的全球貿易格局中僅提供有限緩解的認識日益增強。廣泛市場指數週四所有主要美國市場指數均遭受重大損失，隨著投資者消化對中國商品145%累計關稅率的全面影響，回吐了週三歷史性漲幅的大部分。標普500指數下跌-3.46%，而道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌-2.5%，相較於增長導向指數表現相對韌性。那斯達克綜合指數回落-4.31%，回吐了前一個交易日驚人漲幅的近一半。週三大幅上漲的小型股經歷了最戲劇性的逆轉，羅素2000指數暴跌-7.93%。這種嚴重表現不佳表明投資者現在特別擔心較高關稅對國內經濟的影響，因為小型公司通常較難以吸收或轉嫁成本增加。費城半導體指數下跌-4.20%，反映出由於與中國貿易實質中斷，全球科技供應鏈持續存在不確定性。過去兩個交易日的劇烈波動引起了市場對熔斷機制的關注，標普500指數一度接近7%的熔斷觸發門檻。在盤中低點，指數觸及5,115.27點，標誌著-6.3%的跌幅，隨後略有回升。這波股市震盪發生在第一季財報季發布之前，摩根大通、富國銀行和摩根士丹利即將於週五開始陸續發布財報— 這些財報將受到密切審視，以了解金融業在前所未有的市場動盪和衰退擔憂中的健康狀況。類股概況週四標普500的所有十一個類股均下跌，能源和科技領跌。標普500能源類股暴跌-6.53%，因原油價格在更具保護主義的貿易環境下對全球需求擔憂而回落。因投資者重新評估美中貿易實質中斷對複雜全球供應鏈的影響，標普500資訊科技類股下跌-4.50%，回吐昨日漲幅的相當部分。標普500非必需消費品類股下跌-3.41%，反映出對進口價格上升可能影響消費者支出的擔憂。因投資者對貿易緊張局勢升級的更廣泛經濟影響日益擔憂，標普500通信服務類股下跌-3.46%，標普500原材料類股回落-3.19%，標普500金融類股下滑-2.79%。防禦性標普500必需消費品類股表現出驚人韌性，基本持平，上漲+0.05%，因投資者轉向具有穩定需求和國內供應鏈的企業。標普500公用事業類股也展現了其防禦性特徵，僅下跌-0.75%，顯著優於大盤。標普500醫療保健類股下跌-2.79%，標普500工業類股下跌-2.58%，標普500房地產類股回落-2.34%，這些類股與其他全球性風險較高的類股相比，均表現出相對韌性。一日變化讀數顯示多個類股出現負面轉變，特別是金融和通信服務類股，標誌著從週三積極情緒的迅速逆轉，表明在全球貿易關係不確定性加劇的情況下，投資者現在正採取更為防禦性的定位。國際市場週四全球市場與美國指數同步下跌，不過各地區表現差異明顯，因投資者評估川普關稅政策的差異化影響。歐洲市場表現出相對韌性，MSCI歐洲指數回落-1.32%，因歐盟宣布對美國商品實施90天暫停徵收關稅，效仿川普對除中國外大多數國家的做法。歐盟委員會主席馮德萊恩在社交媒體上警告，如果談判「不令人滿意」，可能恢復反制關稅。日本市場面臨更陡峭跌幅，MSCI日本指數下跌-3.20%，反映出對美中貿易衝突持久化可能造成附帶損害的擔憂。儘管被排除在關稅暫停之外，中國市場表現出驚人韌性，MSCI中國指數僅下跌-0.17%，因國內投資者已經為重大貿易挑戰定價，政府也暗示可能推出刺激措施。中國人民幣兌美元匯率跌至全球金融危機以來最低水平。中國商務部已表達對其視為來自華盛頓壓力的反對，同時表示願意在相互尊重的基礎上進行對話，並準備在美國堅持目前做法的情況下回應。這一堅定立場暗示世界兩大經濟體之間可能進一步升級，對全球貿易流動和供應鏈帶來重大影響。儘管其他關稅有所回調，美國的平均有效關稅率現已達到一個多世紀以來的最高水平。其他資產債券市場仍是金融市場關注的中心，儘管從近期高點有所緩和，國債收益率繼續反映出顯著壓力。10年期美國國債收益率略有回落，但仍較本週初高出約37個基點，這一走勢對整體經濟的借貸成本具有重大影響。美國固定收益市場的這一動盪源於多種因素，包括流行槓桿交易的解除、對擴大預算赤字的財政擔憂，以及在貿易動態變化中對美國債務外國需求的憂慮。債券市場的混亂似乎與新貿易體制實施的不確定性有關，導致對美國政策可預測性的信心減弱。前財政部長葉倫於週四接受CNN採訪時表示：「“高度槓桿化的對沖基金“不得不賣出資產，造成進一步不穩定」。這些混亂特別令人擔憂，因為發生在美國政府已聲明降低收益率以減少整體經濟借貸成本為目標之際。因投資者尋求傳統避險資產，黃金在不確定性中延續漲勢，上漲+2.44%。另一方面，因美中貿易戰加劇和經濟衰退的擔憂恐懼，蓋過了川普關稅暫停帶來的暫時緩解，石油價格下跌超過-3%。美元指數下跌-2.09%，反映出貿易關係變化對全球的複雜影響和通膨數據放緩。加密貨幣市場加入更廣泛的避險情緒，比特幣下跌-3.54%。展望未來，市場焦點將轉向週五開始各金融機構的第一季財報季，90天關稅暫停的潛在延長，以及作為金融穩定關鍵指標的債券市場收益率走向。未來幾週對於確定債券市場是否穩定、貿易談判是否產生實質成果，以及美國聯準會是否因應不斷變化的經濟狀況和金融市場壓力調整其政策方針將至關重要。關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》 鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為美籍台灣人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。Markets Retreat as Bond Market Turbulence and China Tariff Reality Set InDow Tumbles 1,000 Points After China Tariff Rate Confirmed at 145%By Joseph Lu, CFA April 10, 2025MARKET OVERVIEWU.S. markets experienced a significant reversal on Thursday, surrendering nearly half of Wednesday's historic rally as investors reassessed the implications of President Donald Trump's differentiated tariff approach. The selloff accelerated as details emerged that the cumulative tariff rate on Chinese goods now stands at 145% – consisting of the recently announced 125% duty plus a previously implemented 20% fentanyl-related tariff.The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1,014.79 points, or -2.5%, settling at 39,593.66, while the S&P 500 Index tumbled -3.46%, closing at 5,268.05. The Nasdaq Composite, which had posted its second-best day ever on Wednesday, retreated -4.31% to end at 16,387.31. Small-cap stocks, which had led Wednesday's advance, suffered the steepest declines with the Russell 2000 Index plummeting -7.93%. Trading volume remained exceptionally high, with Thursday seeing one of the heaviest trading days in recent history as investors repositioned portfolios.Market sentiment shifted rapidly as investors more soberly assessed the implications of the tariff situation. The uncertainty surrounding the 145% China tariff rate makes establishing market bottoms or tops exceptionally difficult, as policy details continue to evolve rapidly, fundamentally altering investor perceptions. The losses were particularly steep among technology companies, with Apple falling -4.2%, Tesla dropping -7.3%, NVIDIA declining nearly -6%, and Meta Platforms slipping almost -7%.The market turbulence came as evidence emerged that bond market chaos played a crucial role in Trump's decision to modify his tariff approach. The swift decline in bond prices and corresponding yield spike effectively influenced the administration's tariff implementation strategy. The 10-year Treasury yield experienced its most rapid three-day rise since 2001, creating widespread dislocations in fixed income markets and threatening broader financial stability. Trump himself acknowledged that markets were acting "yippy" ahead of the policy switch, suggesting awareness of the financial market pressures.Despite Thursday's pullback, Trump indicated he hasn't ruled out extending the 90-day tariff pause for most countries. "We'll have to see what happens at that time," Trump said at a Cabinet meeting. Meanwhile, the European Union announced a similar 90-day pause on levies for U.S. goods, while reserving the right to reinstate countermeasures if talks prove unsatisfactory. The current tariff structure includes 145% duties on all goods from China, 25% tariffs targeting aluminum, autos, and goods from Canada and Mexico not under the USMCA, and a 10% levy on all other imports.Executive Summary:Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1,014.79 points (-2.5%) while S&P 500 tumbled -3.46%, giving back a significant portion of Wednesday's historic gainsBond market turbulence played crucial role in Trump's tariff pivot, with 10-year Treasury yield seeing largest three-day spike since 2001White House confirmed total China tariff rate stands at 145% (125% new duty plus 20% fentanyl-related tariff), effectively cutting off most U.S.-China tradeInflation showed unexpected improvement with CPI falling 0.1% in March, bringing 12-month rate to 2.4%, though economists view data as "backward looking" given tariff changesEuropean Union announced matching 90-day pause on levies for U.S. goods as negotiations with multiple countries beginECONOMIC INDICATORSEconomic data presented a complex picture on Thursday, with a surprisingly positive inflation report contrasting with persistently negative trends in forward-looking measures. The Consumer Price Index fell a seasonally adjusted -0.1% in March, bringing the 12-month inflation rate to 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February and below the expected 2.6%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased just 0.1% for the month, resulting in a 2.8% annual rate – the lowest since March 2021.The unexpected inflation improvement was driven by slumping energy prices, with gasoline prices dropping -6.3%, and moderating shelter costs, which increased just 0.2% in March for a 12-month gain of 4% – the smallest since November 2021. This positive inflation data appears largely backward-looking given the significant trade policy changes in recent days. Looking forward, the Federal Reserve will likely face difficult trade-offs as tariff-driven price increases begin filtering through to inflation data while economic activity remains soft.Despite this positive backward-looking inflation data, broader economic forward-looking measures continue to show concerning trends. Investment duration remains deeply negative across all timeframes, indicating persistent pessimism about longer-term economic growth. Corporate earnings trends continue to show negative readings in current and recent periods, highlighting ongoing concerns about profit margins as companies absorb higher input costs from tariffs. Trump's tariffs are expected to generate substantial additional federal tax revenues for 2025, effectively representing a significant tax increase and implying substantial cost increases for businesses and consumers.Consumer strength also continues to display weakness across all timeframes, suggesting spending could face mounting pressure as tariff-induced price increases work through the economy. Looking ahead, while the 90-day tariff delays provide temporary relief, they do not fundamentally reduce the underlying uncertainty that continues to complicate business planning and investment decisions.TOP 10 U.S. COMPANIESTesla dropped -7.27% after yesterday's exceptional gain, as investors weighed the company's complex global manufacturing footprint and significant Chinese market exposure. Apple fell -4.24%, while NVIDIA declined -5.91% and Amazon retreated -5.17%, all giving back a significant portion of Wednesday's gains. Microsoft showed relative resilience, falling a more modest -2.34%, while Alphabet declined -3.71% as investors favored companies with less direct exposure to physical supply chains.Berkshire Hathaway continued to demonstrate its defensive characteristics, declining just -1.07%, outperforming the broader market by a substantial margin and suggesting investors are rotating toward more stable business models amid heightened uncertainty. JPMorgan Chase fell -3.09% as the potential economic impact of effectively severed U.S.-China trade relations raised concerns about loan growth and credit quality. The dramatic one-day reversals across most of these market leaders highlight the rapid reassessment of Wednesday's optimism and growing recognition that the 90-day tariff pause may provide only limited relief in a fundamentally altered global trade landscape.BROAD MARKET INDICESSmall-cap stocks, which had surged in Wednesday's rally, experienced the most dramatic reversal, with the Russell 2000 Index plummeting -7.93%. This severe underperformance suggests investors are now particularly concerned about domestic economic impacts from higher tariffs, as small companies typically have less ability to absorb or pass on increased costs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell -4.20%, reflecting continued uncertainty about global technology supply chains given the effective trade severance with China.The dramatic swings over the past two sessions have brought circuit breakers into focus, with the S&P 500 briefly approaching the 7% threshold that would trigger a trading halt. At its session low, the index touched 5,115.27, marking a decline of -6.3% before recovering somewhat. This volatility comes ahead of first-quarter earnings season, set to begin Friday with reports from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley – results that will be closely scrutinized for insights into the financial sector's health amid unprecedented market turbulence and recession concerns.SECTOR OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector fell -3.41%, reflecting concerns about potential consumer spending impacts from higher import prices. The S&P 500 Communication Services sector declined -3.46%, while the S&P 500 Materials sector retreated -3.19% and the S&P 500 Financials sector slid -2.79% as investors grew concerned about broader economic impacts from escalated trade tensions. The defensive S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector showed remarkable resilience, essentially flat at +0.05%, as investors rotated toward businesses with stable demand and domestic supply chains.The S&P 500 Utilities sector also demonstrated its defensive characteristics, declining just -0.75%, significantly outperforming the broader market. The S&P 500 Healthcare sector fell -2.79%, the S&P 500 Industrials sector dropped -2.58%, and the S&P 500 Real Estate sector retreated -2.34%, all showing relative resilience compared to more globally-exposed sectors. The one-day delta readings show negative shifts for several sectors, particularly in Financials and Communication Services, marking a rapid reversal from Wednesday's positive sentiment and suggesting investors are now positioning more defensively amid heightened uncertainty about global trade relationships.INTERNATIONAL MARKETSGlobal markets declined in tandem with U.S. indices on Thursday, though with notable variations across regions as investors assessed the differential impact of Trump's tariff policies. European markets showed relative resilience, with the MSCI Europe Index retreating -1.32% as the European Union announced a 90-day pause on levies for U.S. goods, mirroring Trump's approach to most nations except China. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen cautioned on social media that the counter-tariffs could be reinstated if negotiations "are not satisfactory."Japanese markets faced steeper losses, with the MSCI Japan Index falling -3.20%, reflecting concerns about potential collateral damage from a protracted U.S.-China trade conflict. Chinese markets showed remarkable resilience despite being excluded from the tariff pause, with the MSCI China Index declining just -0.17% as domestic investors had already priced in significant trade challenges and the government signaled potential stimulus measures. China's yuan hit its lowest level against the dollar since the global financial crisis.China's Commerce Ministry has expressed opposition to what it views as pressure from Washington, while indicating openness to dialogue based on mutual respect and a willingness to respond if the U.S. maintains its current approach. This firm stance suggests potential further escalation between the world's two largest economies, with significant implications for global trade flows and supply chains. Despite the rollback on other tariffs, the average effective U.S. tariff rate now stands at its highest level in more than a century.OTHER ASSETSThe bond market remained at the center of financial market concerns, with Treasury yields continuing to reflect significant stress despite some moderation from recent peaks. The 10-year Treasury yield slightly eased but remained about 37 basis points higher than where it started the week, a move that has major implications for borrowing costs throughout the economy. This upheaval in the U.S. fixed income market stemmed from multiple factors, including the unwinding of popular leveraged trades, fiscal concerns over widening budget deficits, and worries about foreign demand for U.S. debt amid changing trade dynamics.The bond market disruption appears connected to uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the new trade regime, resulting in reduced confidence in U.S. policy predictability. In an interview with CNN International, former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday that "highly leveraged hedge funds" had to sell, causing further instability. These dislocations are particularly concerning as they come at a time when the administration has stated a goal of lowering yields to reduce borrowing costs across the economy.Gold continued its advance amid the uncertainty, rising +2.44% as investors sought traditional safe havens. Oil prices retreated by more than -3% as fears of a deepening U.S.-China trade war and recession concerns overshadowed the temporary relief from Trump's tariff pause. The U.S. Dollar Index declined -2.09%, reflecting both the complex global implications of altered trade relationships and the easing inflation data. The cryptocurrency market joined the broader risk-off sentiment, with Bitcoin falling -3.54%.Looking ahead, market focus will increasingly turn to first-quarter earnings season beginning Friday with major financial institutions, potential extensions of the 90-day tariff pause, and the direction of bond market yields as a key indicator of financial stability. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the bond market stabilizes, whether trade negotiations produce tangible results, and whether the Federal Reserve adjusts its policy approach in response to changing economic conditions and financial market stress.