從通膨數據到貿易談判期限，狹隘的漲勢面臨多重催化劑的考驗Joe 盧, CFA 2025年6月7日 美東時間一周重點摘要美國股市表現嚴重分歧，大型股的強勢帶動那斯達克綜合指數上漲+1.9%，但整體市場步履蹣跚，羅素2000指數下跌-2.8%即為明證，加劇了關鍵的內部分歧。市場論調受到具韌性的回溯性數據所支持，包括優於預期的5月份就業報告和強勁的第一季財報季，這為大型股的領漲提供了基本面支撐。然而，前瞻性指標發出警訊，ISM製造業和服務業調查雙雙陷入萎縮區間，顯示潛在的經濟降溫與勞動市場的強勁勢頭相矛盾。債券價格下跌，20年期以上美國公債價格下跌-0.9%，反映市場更擔憂ISM報告中頑固的高物價組成部分，而非歐洲央行降息的鴿派轉向。展望未來，市場面臨「夏季考驗」，將迎接一連串催化因素的挑戰，包括關鍵的通膨數據、7月和8月的貿易關稅最後期限，以及財政政策辯論，這些都將考驗此波狹隘漲勢的持久性。一周市場觀點美國市場正步入一個充滿風險的新階段，經濟強韌的市場表現與實際的內部極端分歧產生明顯衝突。儘管本週稍晚，美中兩國元首進行具建設性的通話，以及5月份就業報告表現穩健，提振了市場情緒，但市場的反應卻遠非一致。大型股標普500指數上漲+1.5%，以科技股為主的那斯達克綜合指數上漲+1.9%。然而，這掩蓋了其他指數的顯著回落。反應美國經濟狀況的羅素2000指數急劇下跌-2.8%，鮮明地顯示了市場內部的脆弱性。這種日益擴大的鴻溝表明，投資者對「經濟強韌」的說法並未全面買單；他們正湧入少數幾檔大型股，而撤出了更廣泛的市場。美國頂尖企業的表現加劇了這種分歧。最近結束的第一季財報季對科技業而言非常強勁，而上週的價格走勢顯示，這種動能仍在特定個股中持續。受惠於其強勁的獲利軌跡以及為其AI運營提供動力的長期能源協議消息，Meta (Meta Platforms Inc.)股價飆升+8.2%。然而，這並非整個產業的漲勢。這種高度選擇性的行為，即少數幾檔股票推動指數上漲，突顯出市場正在獎勵非常特定的題材，同時對其他任何可察覺的風險越來越不能容忍。目前美國潛在的經濟數據正釋放出矛盾的訊號。一方面，勞動市場看來健康。5月份經濟增加了13,9萬個就業機會，超出預期，失業率則維持在4.2%。這為消費者提供了堅定的（儘管是回溯性的）基礎。另一方面，前瞻性的商業調查則明確顯示疲弱。ISM製造業指數連續第三個月萎縮，而ISM服務業指數則近一年來首次陷入萎縮。這正是投資者目前面臨的典型矛盾：消費者仍依賴於過去累積的經濟動能進行消費，而前瞻性的商業活動則指向經濟放緩。美國的產業類股格局也呈現出同樣的集中領漲格局。工業類股(+1.5%)和通訊服務類股(+2.7%)錄得強勁漲幅；它們的技術趨勢證實了其具備領先地位，與這些領域強勁的企業獲利成長一致。然而，更廣泛的非必需消費品類股則下跌-1.3%，儘管就業數據正面，卻未能獲得上漲動能。這表明此波漲勢並非普漲，明確顯示市場內部結構的脆弱。國際方面，歐洲央行如市場預期降息，總裁拉加德表示寬鬆週期「已近尾聲」。然而，此一鴿派訊號被全球通膨擔憂所抵銷，尤其本週原油價格大漲+6.2%。在中國方面，一項民間製造業活動調查顯示出明顯萎縮，反映全球貿易摩擦持續對經濟造成壓力，市場在預期政府將推出更多刺激措施的憧憬下上漲。本週焦點投資農產品提供了對全球糧食供應鏈直接且對通膨敏感的曝險，可為投資組合帶來多元化，並對傳統股債易受影響的風險提供避險。對投資者而言，這意味著獲得一個由基本且非任意性的糧食需求所驅動的非相關報酬來源。核心論點是，在日益脆弱的供給與持續的全球需求之間結構性失衡的推動下，農產品正處於一個長期、多年的牛市之中。持續的地緣政治摩擦和「糧食民族主義」的興起正在擾亂貿易，而氣候變遷則帶來前所未有的「高溫通膨(heatflation)」，透過更頻繁和更嚴重的極端天氣事件降低作物產量。燃料和化肥等投入成本上升，加劇了這些供給衝擊，為價格奠定了更高的基礎。全球最大的大豆和穀物等關鍵商品進口國——中國，使此一態勢加劇。中國對糧食安全的固執追求，為全球市場創造了強大且價格缺乏彈性的需求基礎。中國國內任何生產短缺（通常由氣候引發）都會迫使其成為龐大且緊急的買家，從而引發全球價格大幅飆漲。對投資者而言，這意味著當前環境不僅是週期性波動，而是一種結構性稀缺的新常態，為價格升值提供了顯著且持續的潛力。此論點帶有重大風險，其中最主要的是極端的價格波動以及期貨市場結構可能產生的負利差。商品價格容易出現劇烈且不可預測的波動，即使基本商品價格穩定或上漲，持續的「正價差(contango)」（遠期價格高於即期價格）市場也會侵蝕報酬。此外，嚴重的全球經濟衰退可能暫時抑制需求，而美元走強則構成不利因素。中國亦是一把雙面刃；儘管其需求是主要驅動因素，但突然釋放戰略儲備的政策轉變或中國國內意外豐收，都可能對價格造成顯著（儘管可能短暫）的下行壓力。因此，對投資者而言，這些風險需要採取策略性方法、長期眼光，並理解此類資產的報酬不會是線性的，且需要積極管理其固有的波動性。焦點列表焦點列表調整本週移除資產特斯拉(Tesla Inc) (移除)：該股技術結構顯著惡化，上週價格走勢確認跌破關鍵支撐位。趨勢失去上漲動能，反映其短期成長前景的不確定性增加，因此從我們的焦點列表中移除。波克夏海瑟威B股(Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B) (移除)：在經歷一段時間的表現不佳後，趨勢已轉為中性偏弱。上週價格走勢未能展現新的動能或挑戰上方壓力，因此在出現更明確的方向性訊號足以支持重新關注之前，將其移除。本週新增資產20年期以上美國公債空頭部位 (新加入)：將其納入反映了債券殖利率上升（債券價格下跌）的技術趨勢正在增強。上週的價格走勢證實了此一動能，使得對此主題的曝險成為針對利率「長期維持高檔」環境佈局的投資組合之相關焦點。展望未來市場目前正進入「夏季考驗」期，在此期間，強韌的基本面將受到一系列重要催化事件的考驗。未來一週便是此考驗的第一階段，重點將落在即將公布的通膨數據——CPI與PPI。這些數據對於形塑美國聯準會的短期展望至關重要，目前官員們處於「觀望」狀態，而6月份降息的可能性已基本排除。本週之後，行事曆上將排滿潛在引發波動的因素。7月9日和8月12日的兩項關鍵貿易關稅最後期限，加上圍繞7月中旬債務上限「X日」的財政僵局，勢必提高消息面風險。這些事件將挑戰市場近期的上漲動能，並可能輕易動搖當前相對脆弱的平靜氛圍。核心問題在於，市場的領漲力量能否最終擴大，或者小型股的持續疲弱最終是否會拖累整個市場走低。債券市場仍然是最研判宏觀經濟走勢的核心指標。長天期美國公債價格若再出現一週的下跌，將鞏固利率「長期維持高檔」的論述，並加劇對股票估值的壓力。原油價格反彈增添了另一層複雜性，因為持續走強將直接助長聯準會試圖抑制的通膨擔憂。我的趨勢追蹤方法仍然專注於工業類股和主流科技股的既有領先地位。然而，我們正高度警戒，因為整個市場的深層分歧顯示其結構可能會輕易被即將到來的考驗所顛覆。保持聯繫並分享見解若您覺得本文有幫助，請點讚支持。歡迎將此電子報轉發給可能覺得有價值的同事和朋友。訂閱即可直接在您的收件匣中收到此分析。在社群媒體上關注我們以獲取更多更新。本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。Market Rallies on Resilient Fundamentals, But Internal Fractures DeepenA Narrow Rally Faces a Season of Catalysts, from Inflation Data to Trade DeadlinesJoe Lu, CFA June 7, 2025EXECUTIVE SUMMARYU.S. equities delivered a deeply fractured performance, with mega-cap strength lifting the Nasdaq Composite +1.9% while the broader market faltered, evidenced by the Russell 2000's -2.8% decline, widening a critical internal divergence.The market’s narrative was bolstered by resilient backward-looking data, including a better-than-expected May jobs report and a strong first-quarter earnings season, which provided a fundamental anchor for large-cap leadership.However, forward-looking indicators flashed warning signs, as both ISM Manufacturing and Services surveys fell into contraction territory, suggesting a potential economic cooling that contradicts the labor market's strength.Bond prices fell, with 20+ Year Treasury Bonds declining -0.9%, reflecting a market more concerned with stubbornly high price components in the ISM reports than the dovish turn from the European Central Bank, which cut its key interest rate.Looking ahead, the market faces a "summer test" with a gauntlet of catalysts including crucial inflation data, trade tariff deadlines in July and August, and fiscal policy debates, which will challenge the durability of this narrow rally.MARKET PERSPECTIVEThe U.S. market has entered a precarious new phase where a narrative of economic resilience is clashing with the reality of extreme internal divergence. While sentiment was buoyed late in the week by a constructive phone call between the U.S. and Chinese presidents and a solid May jobs report, the market’s reaction was far from uniform. The large-cap S&P 500 Index rose +1.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added +1.9%. This, however, masked a significant retreat elsewhere. In a stark display of this fragility, the Russell 2000 Index, a barometer for the domestic economy, fell sharply by -2.8%. This growing chasm shows investors are not buying the "resilient economy" story wholesale; they are crowding into a few mega-cap names and abandoning the broader market.This bifurcation was reinforced by the performance of top U.S. companies. The recently concluded first-quarter earnings season was exceptionally strong for technology, and last week’s price action showed that momentum continuing in select names. Meta Platforms Inc. surged an impressive +8.2%, catalyzed by its powerful earnings trajectory and news of a long-term energy deal to power its AI operations. However, this was not a sector-wide updraft. This highly selective behavior, where a handful of names drive the index, underscores a market that is rewarding very specific narratives while becoming increasingly intolerant of any perceived risk elsewhere.The underlying economic data is now sending conflicting signals. On one hand, the labor market appears healthy. The economy added 139,000 jobs in May, beating expectations, and the unemployment rate held at 4.2%. This provides a solid, albeit backward-looking, foundation for the consumer. On the other hand, forward-looking business surveys were unambiguously weak. The ISM Manufacturing index contracted for a third straight month, while the ISM Services index fell into contraction for the first time in nearly a year. This is the classic conflict investors now face: a consumer still spending based on past strength, while forward-looking business activity points toward a slowdown.The U.S. sector landscape tells the same story of concentrated strength. Industrials (+1.5%) and Communication Services (+2.7%) posted strong gains, with their technical trends confirming leadership status, aligning with the strong earnings growth seen in these areas. However, the broader Consumer Discretionary sector fell -1.3%, unable to gain traction despite the positive jobs data. This demonstrates that the rally's strength is not lifting all boats, a clear sign of the market’s fragile internal structure.Internationally, the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate as expected, with President Lagarde signaling the easing cycle was "nearly concluded." This dovish signal, however, was offset by global inflation concerns, particularly as Crude Oil jumped +6.2% for the week. In China, markets advanced on hopes for more government stimulus after a private survey of manufacturing activity showed a sharp contraction, reflecting the ongoing impact of global trade friction.HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEEKAn investment in agricultural commodities provides direct, inflation-sensitive exposure to the global food supply chain, offering portfolio diversification and a hedge against risks to which traditional equities and bonds are vulnerable. For investors, this means gaining access to a source of uncorrelated returns driven by the fundamental, non-discretionary need for food. The core thesis is that a secular, multi-year bull market in agricultural commodities is underway, driven by a structural imbalance between increasingly fragile supply and relentless global demand.Persistent geopolitical frictions and the rise of "food nationalism" are disrupting trade, while climate change is introducing unprecedented "heatflation," degrading crop yields through more frequent and severe weather events. Compounding these supply shocks are rising input costs for fuel and fertilizer, establishing a higher floor for prices. This dynamic is supercharged by the role of China, the world's largest importer of key commodities like soybeans and grains. China's non-negotiable quest for food security creates a powerful and price-inelastic demand base for global markets. Any domestic production shortfall there, often climate-induced, forces Beijing to become a massive, urgent buyer, triggering significant price surges across the globe. For investors, this means the current environment is not just cyclical volatility but a new paradigm of structural scarcity, offering significant and sustained potential for price appreciation.This thesis carries substantial risks, chief among them being extreme price volatility and the potential for negative carry from the futures market structure. Commodity prices are subject to sharp, unpredictable swings, and a sustained market in "contango" (where forward prices are higher than spot prices) can erode returns even if underlying commodity prices are stable or rising. Furthermore, a severe global recession could temporarily dampen demand, and a strengthening U.S. dollar poses a headwind. China also represents a double-edged sword; while its demand is a primary driver, a sudden policy shift to release its strategic reserves or an unexpectedly large domestic harvest could create significant, albeit likely temporary, downward pressure on prices. Therefore, for an investor, these risks demand a strategic approach, a long-term horizon, and an understanding that returns in this asset class will not be linear and require active management of the inherent volatility.FOCUS LISTFOCUS LIST ADJUSTMENTSAssets Removed This WeekAssets Added This WeekLOOKING AHEADThe market is now entering a "summer test," a period where resilient fundamentals will be weighed against a series of meaningful catalysts. The week ahead is the first stage of this test, with major inflation reports (CPI and PPI) set for release. These will be critical in shaping the Federal Reserve's near-term outlook, with officials currently in a "wait-and-see" mode and a June rate cut now off the table.Beyond this week, the calendar is filled with potential volatility drivers. Key trade tariff deadlines on July 9 and August 12, along with ongoing fiscal debates surrounding the debt ceiling "X-date" in mid-July, will keep headline risk elevated. These events will challenge the market's recent momentum and could easily disrupt the fragile sense of calm. The central question is whether the market's leadership can finally broaden, or if the persistent weakness in small caps will ultimately pull the entire market lower.The bond market remains the most important barometer. Another week of falling prices for long-duration Treasury bonds would cement the 'higher for longer' rate narrative and intensify the pressure on equity valuations. The rebound in Crude Oil adds another complication, as continued strength would directly fuel the inflation concerns that the Fed is trying to suppress. My trend-following approach remains focused on the established leadership in Industrials and dominant technology names. However, we are on high alert, as the profound divergences across the market signal a structure that could be easily upended by the tests to come.Stay Connected & Share the InsightsLike this article if you found it helpful.Forward this newsletter to colleagues and friends who might find it valuable.Subscribe to receive this analysis directly to your inbox.Follow us on social media for more updates.This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.Join the official LINE account of "Joe’s Wall Street Pulse" now to receive the latest column updates (click here to join)
