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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】貿易利多帶動反彈，蓋過勞動市場疲弱影響
投資者對私營部門就業人數意外萎縮的消息不以為意，目前焦點完全集中在明日的官方就業報告和逼近的7月9日關稅最後期限
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月2日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 貿易政策的利多消息蓋過了勞動市場疲弱的跡象，美國股市上漲至歷史新高。
- 標普500指數和那斯達克綜合指數達到歷史高點，科技等以成長為導向的類股領漲，小型股則連續第二個交易日表現優於大盤。
- 10年期美國公債殖利率上漲至約4.29%，顯示貿易協議帶來的投資者樂觀情緒，蓋過了疲軟就業數據引發的擔憂。
- 6月份的ADP就業報告顯示，私營部門就業人數意外萎縮33,000人，表明在明日官方非農業就業報告發布前，勞動市場顯著趨緩。
- 美國與越南敲定了一項關稅率為20%的貿易協議，遠低於先前威脅的46%；與此同時在華盛頓，眾議院正審議經參議院修正的和解法案（Reconciliation Bill ）。
今日市場最重要的發展，是投資情緒明確轉向對貿易政策的樂觀看法，且此轉變強大到足以抵銷明顯負面的經濟數據。與越南達成的協議將關稅設定在20%，遠低於先前市場擔憂的46%，進一步印證投資者引頸期待的貿易緊張局勢趨緩。這一關鍵不確定因素的解決，為標普500指數和那斯達克指數推升至歷史新高提供了主要催化劑，顯示就目前而言，地緣政治風險的降低是主導市場的驅動力。
ADP就業報告出乎意料地疲弱，與今日的漲勢直接背道而馳。ADP報告顯示，自2023年3月以來，私營部門就業人數首次出現下滑。就業人數下降33,000人，主要集中在專業和商業服務等服務業領域，指向勞動市場動能明顯喪失。然而，投資者基本上忽略了此份報告，將其視為明日更全面的非農業就業數據發布前的次要數據點。債券市場的反應——10年期美國公債殖利率攀升至約4.29%——進一步證實了此論述；殖利率因「風險偏好」的貿易消息而上漲，而非因疲弱的經濟訊號而下跌，這清楚地表明了投資者的優先考量。
此種風險偏好情緒反映在市場內部結構上，科技等成長型類股反彈，羅素2000指數中的小型股連續第二天表現優於大型股，顯示漲勢的參與度正在擴大。展望未來，市場的軌跡如履薄冰。焦點立即轉向明日的非農業就業報告，以更清晰地了解經濟的健康狀況。除此之外，儘管在多方面已取得進展，7月9日的關稅最後期限仍然是一個關鍵觀察時點。儘管據報導與日本的談判陷入僵局，但與越南的突破顯示，貿易政策不確定性的高峰期可能已經過去。
週三資產焦點：美國總體經濟與債券趨勢
今日的報告揭示了美國關鍵經濟指標的顯著改善，顯示來自通膨和投資不確定性的不利因素正開始消退。然而，美國債券市場則釋放出更為謹慎的立場訊號，其趨勢顯示美國殖利率曲線正在發生重大重塑。
圖表一：美國總體經濟指標
- 投資存續期間：當前：--，上週：▼
- 企業獲利：當前：▲，上週：--
- 通貨膨脹：當前：--，上週：▼▼
- 資金流向(美元)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼▼
- 消費者信心：當前：▼，上週：▼
過去一週，美國經濟指標的趨勢已普遍改善。前瞻性指標出現最顯著的正向轉變，投資存續期間從負面改善至中性，通貨膨脹則從非常負面的趨勢中穩定下來。企業獲利亦轉為正向，對市場而言是一個具建設性的訊號。儘管有這些改善，重大的不利因素依然存在。資金流入美元的趨勢持續其非常負面的走向，而消費者信心仍然疲弱，證實了經濟脆弱性的局部領域仍然存在。
圖表二：美國債券(美元計價)
- 1-3年期美國公債(代表ETF：SHY)：當前：--，上週：▲▲
- 3-7年期美國公債(代表ETF：IEI)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
- 7-10年期美國公債(代表ETF：IEF)：當前：▲，上週：▲▲
- 10-20年期美國公債(代表ETF：TLH)：當前：▼，上週：--
- 20年期以上美國公債(代表ETF：TLT)：當前：▼，上週：▼
過去一週，美國公債的價格趨勢顯示殖利率曲線正在趨平。由於強勢高度集中在中期債券，而短期和長期債券則顯著轉弱，曲線因而趨平。3-7年期美國公債的趨勢仍然非常正向，顯示對曲線「中段」的持續需求。形成鮮明對比的是，1-3年期公債的趨勢從非常正向崩潰至中性，而10-20年期債券則從中性轉為負面。此種價格走勢——即短期債券價格相對於中期債券表現不佳——指向一個趨平的斜率，顯示投資者正在縮減對短期內降息的預期，但仍預期最終政策將會放寬。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Trade De-escalation Fuels Market Rally, Overriding Labor Market Weakness
Investors shrugged off a surprise contraction in private payrolls, with the focus now squarely on tomorrow's official jobs report and the approaching July 9 tariff deadline.
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 2, 2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities advanced to new record highs as positive trade policy developments overshadowed signs of a weakening labor market.
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached all-time highs, with growth-oriented sectors like Technology leading and small caps outperforming for a second consecutive session.
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.29%, signaling that investor optimism from the trade agreement outweighed concerns from the soft employment data.
- The June ADP employment report showed an unexpected contraction of 33,000 private payrolls, indicating a significant softening in the labor market ahead of tomorrow's official nonfarm payrolls release.
- The U.S. and Vietnam finalized a trade agreement with a 20% tariff rate, substantially lower than the previously threatened 46%, while in Washington, the House considers the Senate-amended reconciliation bill.
The most important development today is the market's decisive pivot toward optimism on trade policy, a factor potent enough to neutralize overtly negative economic data. The agreement with Vietnam, which sets tariffs at 20% instead of a feared 46%, confirms a de-escalation of trade tensions that investors have been anticipating. This resolution of a key uncertainty provided the primary catalyst for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to push to new all-time highs, demonstrating that for now, geopolitical risk reduction is the dominant market driver.
The day's rally occurred in direct defiance of a surprisingly weak ADP employment report, which registered the first contraction in private payrolls since March 2023. The decline of 33,000 jobs, concentrated in the services sector like professional and business services, points to a clear loss of momentum in the labor market. However, investors largely dismissed this report, treating it as a secondary data point ahead of the more comprehensive nonfarm payrolls data due tomorrow. The bond market's reaction, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to around 4.29%, further corroborates this narrative; yields rose on the "risk-on" trade news rather than falling on the weak economic signal, a clear indication of investor priorities.
This risk-on sentiment was reflected in market internals, with growth sectors like technology rebounding and small caps in the Russell 2000 outperforming large caps for a second day, signaling broadening participation in the rally. Looking ahead, the market's trajectory is balanced on a knife's edge. The focus immediately shifts to tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report for a clearer picture of the economy's health. Beyond that, the July 9 tariff deadline remains a critical milestone, even with progress seen on multiple fronts. While negotiations with Japan are reportedly deadlocked, the breakthrough with Vietnam suggests the peak of trade-policy uncertainty has passed.
Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economics & Bond Trends
Today’s report reveals a notable improvement in key U.S. economic indicators, suggesting that headwinds from inflation and investment uncertainty are beginning to subside. However, the U.S. bond market is signaling a more cautious stance, with trends indicating a significant reshaping of the U.S. yield curve.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators
- Investment Duration: Current: --, Last Week: ▼
- Corporate Earnings: Current: ▲, Last Week: --
- Inflation: Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼
- Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Consumer Strength: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
The trend in U.S. economic indicators has broadly improved over the last week. Forward-looking measures showed the most significant positive shifts, with Investment Duration improving from negative to neutral and Inflation stabilizing from a strongly negative trend. Corporate Earnings have also turned positive, a constructive sign for the market. Despite these improvements, significant headwinds remain. Currency Flow into the U.S. dollar continues its strongly negative trend, and Consumer Strength remains weak, confirming that pockets of economic vulnerability persist.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)
- 1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: --, Last Week: ▲▲
- 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▼, Last Week: --
- 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
The price trends in U.S. Treasuries signal a flattening of the yield curve over the past week. The curve has flattened as strength has become highly concentrated in intermediate maturities while the shorter and longer ends have weakened considerably. The trend in 3-7 Year US Treasuries remains strongly positive, indicating persistent demand for the "belly" of the curve. In sharp contrast, the trend for 1-3 Year Treasuries collapsed from strongly positive to neutral, while the 10-20 Year segment flipped from neutral to negative. This price action—whereby short-term bond prices underperform relative to intermediate-term bonds—points to a flattening slope, suggesting investors are paring back expectations for near-term rate cuts while still anticipating eventual policy easing.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。