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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】強勁就業助漲假期行情，Fed降息計畫恐有變
股市慶祝經濟韌性，因7月降息前景減弱，公債殖利率飆升，市場焦點轉向未來的財政和貿易政策
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月3日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 強勁的勞動數據提振了對經濟實力的樂觀情緒，美國市場在假期週末前上漲，但同時也引發了美國公債的急劇拋售。
- 在經濟持續展現韌性的跡象下，主要股市指數錄得強勁漲幅，標普500指數和那斯達克指數收於歷史新高。
- 由於交易員大幅降低對美國聯準會今年降息的預期，美國公債殖利率顯著躍升，基本上排除了7月份採取行動的可能性。
- 6月份的就業報告優於預期，新增就業147,000人，失業率下降，儘管潛在細節顯示私營部門招募情況較為疲弱。
- 市場焦點亦集中在華盛頓，國會即將通過一項重大的財政方案，此舉雖有助於支持短期成長，但代價是長期聯邦債務前景將更為嚴峻。
市場論述的焦點似乎已從擔憂經濟放緩，轉向接受在聯準會預期降息下的經濟強韌現實。這一轉變迫使利率市場進行大幅重新定價，尤其是優於預期的6月份就業報告幾乎排除了聯準會7月份降息的可能性，並將美國公債殖利率大幅推高。儘管如此，股票投資者對此消息反應樂觀，在假期前的漲勢中將標普500指數和那斯達克指數推至歷史新高。此種分歧顯示，目前而言，良好的經濟消息被明確解讀為對企業獲利前景的絕對利多，其重要性蓋過了對貨幣政策將「長期維持緊縮」的擔憂。
儘管新增147,000個就業機會以及失業率降至4.1%的總體數據描繪了一幅強勁的勞動市場景象，但細項內容仍需謹慎解讀。大部分的就業成長來自於公部門，私人企業僅增加74,000個工作機會，顯示趨勢要弱得多。此外，失業率的下降部分得益於勞動參與率的下滑，而不僅僅是純粹的就業成長。這些因素支持了美國聯準會耐心立場的合理性，並強化了我們的觀點，即9月份是下一個可能的寬鬆窗口，但最終取決於即將公布的數據。
市場對聯準會路徑的重新評估，正值重大財政和貿易政策發展的背景之下。國會準備通過「大而美法案(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)」，這是一項規模達3.3兆美元的財政方案，將為經濟成長提供順風，但同時也加劇了對國家長期債務軌跡的擔憂。即將到來的大量政府公債供給，加上今日更高的殖利率，為債券市場創造了具挑戰性的環境。與此同時，逼近的7月9日關稅最後期限使得貿易政策的不確定性居高不下，這代表了一個關鍵風險，可能在未來幾週內挑戰市場當前樂觀的論述。
週四資產焦點：貨幣與大宗商品趨勢
今日的報告檢視外匯和大宗商品市場，揭示了兩種截然不同的論述。在貨幣方面，新台幣在過去一週對所有主要貿易夥伴貨幣均展現出廣泛且一致的強勢。在大宗商品方面，則出現了明顯的分歧，投資者偏好與工業用途相關的資產和通膨避險工具，同時對農產品則更趨悲觀。
圖表一：貨幣(以新台幣計價)
- 美元(貨幣對：USDTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 歐元(貨幣對：EURTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 日圓(貨幣對：JPYTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 人民幣(貨幣對：CNYTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 加幣(貨幣對：CADTWD)：當前：▼，上週：▼
過去一週，主要貨幣兌新台幣的趨勢維持一致的負面。美元、歐元、日圓、人民幣和加幣均維持其負面趨勢，顯示新台幣持續且廣泛的強勢。此穩定性證實了本地貨幣近期的動能並非僅因單一外幣的疲弱所致，而是外匯市場中的一個普遍主題。
圖表二：大宗商品(以美元計價)
- 能源類大宗商品(代表ETF：DBE)：當前：--，上週：▼▼
- 農業類大宗商品(代表ETF：DBA)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼
- 工業金屬(代表ETF：DBB)：當前：▲，上週：▼
- 貴金屬(代表ETF：DBP)：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 數位資產(代表ETF：IBIT)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲
大宗商品市場顯示出投資者情緒的顯著兩極分化。一方面，與經濟活動和通膨避險相關的趨勢有所增強。工業金屬從負面逆轉為正向，數位資產則從正向加速至非常正向的趨勢。貴金屬維持其正向地位。這表明市場對全球經濟成長和資產價值持建設性看法。另一方面，農業類大宗商品的趨勢則從負面惡化至非常負面，顯示該產業面臨特定的不利因素。與此同時，能源類大宗商品出現顯著改善，在上週的非常負面後穩定至中性。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Strong Jobs Report Powers Pre-Holiday Rally, Forcing a Rethink on Fed Rate Cuts
Equity markets celebrate economic resilience while Treasury yields surge on diminished prospects for a July rate cut, shifting the focus to future fiscal and trade policy.
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 3, 2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. markets rallied into the holiday weekend as strong labor data fueled optimism about economic strength, but also triggered a sharp sell-off in Treasury bonds.
- Major stock indices posted robust gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at new record highs on signs of continued economic resilience.
- Treasury yields jumped significantly as traders sharply reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, effectively pricing out a potential July move.
- The June payrolls report surpassed expectations with a 147,000 gain and a lower unemployment rate, though underlying details revealed weaker private sector hiring.
- Focus is also on Washington, where Congress is set to pass a major fiscal package that signals support for near-term growth at the expense of a higher long-term federal debt outlook.
The market narrative seems to have shifted from fearing a slowdown to pricing in resilient economic strength from expected Fed cuts. This forced a significant repricing in interest rate markets, as a stronger-than-expected June jobs report all but eliminated the prospect of a July Fed rate cut and pushed Treasury yields sharply higher. Equity investors, however, embraced the news, driving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs in a pre-holiday rally. This divergence signals that for now, good economic news is being interpreted as unequivocally good news for corporate earnings prospects, outweighing concerns about tighter-for-longer monetary policy.
While the headline payroll gain of 147,000 and the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1% painted a picture of a robust labor market, the details warrant a more cautious interpretation. A significant portion of the job creation came from the public sector, with private hiring of 74,000 showing a much weaker trend. Furthermore, the lower unemployment rate was assisted by a decline in the labor force participation rate, not just pure job growth. These factors confirm the Federal Reserve's patient stance is justified and reinforces our view that a September cut is the next plausible window for easing, strictly contingent on incoming data.
The market's re-evaluation of the Fed's path is happening against a backdrop of significant fiscal and trade policy developments. Congress is poised to pass the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," a $3.3 trillion fiscal package that will provide a tailwind to growth but exacerbate concerns about the nation's long-term debt trajectory. This looming supply of government debt, combined with today's higher yields, creates a challenging environment for the bond market. Simultaneously, the approaching July 9th tariff deadline keeps trade policy uncertainty elevated, representing a key risk that could challenge the market's current optimistic narrative in the weeks ahead.
Thursday Asset Focus: Currencies & Commodities Trends
Today's report examines foreign exchange and commodity markets, revealing two distinct narratives. In currencies, the New Taiwan Dollar has demonstrated broad and consistent strength against all major peers over the last week. In commodities, a clear divergence has emerged, with investors favoring industrial-use assets and inflation hedges while turning more bearish on agricultural products.
Exhibit 1: Currencies (in TWD)
- U.S. Dollar (Pair: USDTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Euro (Pair: EURTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Japanese Yen (Pair: JPYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Chinese Yuan (Pair: CNYTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- Canadian Dollar (Pair: CADTWD): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
The trend for major currencies versus the New Taiwan Dollar remained uniformly negative over the past week. The U.S. Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all maintained their negative trend, signaling persistent and broad-based strength in the TWD. This stability confirms that recent momentum for the local currency is not isolated to a single foreign currency's weakness but is a widespread theme in the foreign exchange market.
Exhibit 2: Commodities (in USD)
- Energy Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBE): Current: --, Last Week: ▼▼
- Agricultural Commodities (Proxy ETF: DBA): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼
- Industrial Metals (Proxy ETF: DBB): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▼
- Precious Metals (Proxy ETF: DBP): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Digital Assets (Proxy ETF: IBIT): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲
The commodity complex shows a significant bifurcation in investor sentiment. On one hand, trends linked to economic activity and inflation hedging have strengthened. Industrial Metals reversed from negative to positive, and Digital Assets accelerated from a positive to a strongly positive trend. Precious Metals held their positive standing. This indicates a constructive view on global growth and asset value. On the other hand, the trend for Agricultural Commodities deteriorated from negative to strongly negative, signaling specific headwinds in that sector. Meanwhile, Energy Commodities saw a notable improvement, stabilizing to neutral after being strongly negative last week.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。