銅價飆漲與小型股的強勢表現，顯示市場焦點已明確轉向貿易政策及其通膨影響，蓋過了經濟數據平淡的影響

Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月8日 美東時間

重點摘要

在投資者權衡新的貿易政策威脅與清淡的經濟數據行事曆之際，美國大型股在震盪的交易日中大致持平作收。

• 市場出現顯著分歧，以國內為重的小型股上漲，而由於通膨擔憂，類股領導地位則明確轉向原物料和能源股。
• 美國公債殖利率在盤中飆升後持平作收，顯示市場對於關稅最終將會推升通膨，或對經濟成長造成更大損害，仍存在不確定性。
• 政府威脅將課徵新的高額關稅，包括對銅課徵50%的關稅，已成為市場的主要驅動力，蓋過了次要經濟數據發布的影響。
• 在8月1日的最後期限前，川普總統對主要貿易夥伴發出的新關稅最後通牒，已使市場的焦點明確轉向地緣政治貿易談判。

今日市場表面的平盤作收，掩蓋了背後一場由具攻擊性的、以關稅為核心的貿易政策突然回歸所引發的顯著潛在輪動。這並非是市場猶豫不決的反映，而是一場迅速的風險重新校準，因投資者開始將保護主義的直接通膨後果計入價格。當日具代表性的走勢——工業大宗商品的急劇飆漲以及對以美國國內市場為導向的小型股的明確偏好——證實了市場論述已從監測經濟數據轉向預期貿易衝突的影響。
市場風格轉變的證據已清晰可見。在白宮威脅將課徵50%的關稅後，銅期貨飆升近10%，帶動整個原物料類股走高。這種情況，加上能源類股的強勢，清晰地描繪出資金流向那些將從投入成本上漲和通膨中受益的資產。羅素2000指数的優異表現進一步印證此資金流動，其小型股成分股通常比標普500指數的大型跨國公司更能免於國際貿易爭端的影響。相反地，在政府將矛頭指向綠能補貼後，像太陽能這樣對政治風向敏感的產業則面臨賣壓。
在今日經濟數據清淡的情況下，新公布的數據影響有限。全美獨立企業聯盟(NFIB)的小型企業調查中，唯一值得注意的是，企業表示將提高價格的意願增強，此一發現與關稅的論述完全吻合。債券市場——殖利率在早盤上漲後回落至平盤——仍然是辨別最終影響的關鍵戰場。固定收益投資者目前正在權衡，關稅究竟會助長持續的通膨推力，從而推高殖利率，還是最終會破壞經濟活動，為經濟成長和殖利率帶來阻力。
展望未來，8月1日達成新貿易協議的最後期限，創造了一個明確的風險和潛在波動時期。即將發生的事件，包括本週的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議紀錄和公債標售，都將透過此以貿易為中心的視角來解讀。市場焦點已明確地從美國聯準會預設的政策路徑，轉向不斷升溫的貿易緊張局勢將如何迫使央行出手。

週二資產焦點：區域指數與台灣個股趨勢

今日的報告突顯了亞洲主要股市普遍出現動能明顯減弱的現象。儘管多數地區的趨勢訊號依然為正向，但過去一週，日本和南韓的漲勢已顯著趨緩。此種減速在台灣最大的幾家公司中尤其明顯，其中像台積電這樣的指標股已見疲態，預示著市場頂層可能出現領導地位的轉移或日益加劇的疲弱。

圖表一：區域股市指數(美元計價)

台灣(代表ETF：EWT)：當前：▲，上週：▲

• 香港(代表ETF：EWH)：當前：▲▲，上週：▲▲
• 中國(代表ETF：MCHI)：當前：▲，上週：▲
• 日本(代表ETF：EWJ)：當前：▲，上週：▲▲
• 南韓(代表ETF：EWY)：當前：▲，上週：▲▲

亞洲市場的正向趨勢已開始顯露疲態。日本和南韓的趨勢均從非常正向惡化至正向，表明其上漲動能正在放緩。香港仍然是明確的領導者，維持其非常正向的訊號，而台灣和中國則穩定維持正向趨勢。此種普遍但正在減弱的正向情緒，顯示投資者對該地區仍然抱持建設性看法，但正變得更具選擇性。

圖表二：台灣五大企業(新台幣計價)

台積電(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd) (股票代號：2330)：當前：--，上週：▲

• 鴻海精密(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd) (股票代號：2317)：當前：▼，上週：▼
• 聯發科(MediaTek Inc) (股票代號：2454)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼▼
• 廣達電腦(Quanta Computer Inc) (股票代號：2382)：當前：▼，上週：▼
• 台達電子(Delta Electronics Inc) (股票代號：2308)：當前：--，上週：▲

台灣的龍頭企業之間已出現明顯的惡化。關鍵的產業巨頭台積電和台達電子，其趨勢雙雙從正向轉弱至中性，顯示動能喪失。與此同時，鴻海精密和廣達電腦仍陷於負面趨勢，而聯發科則持續呈現非常負面的訊號。這些市場指標股的表現不佳與更廣泛的台灣加權指數（仍維持正向）形成分歧，表明目前的領導地位正來自市場的其他部分。

👍若您覺得這份研究有價值，請對本文按讚。

📲加入並追蹤鉅亨號，與我們互動，即可獲取更多趨勢指標和市場資訊。

📰追蹤此部落格。

💬LINE好友。

➡️將此分析分享給您的親朋好友，一同獲取最新投資觀點。

本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。

Tariff Threats Reignite Inflation Fears, Driving Rotation Under a Flat Market Surface

A surge in copper prices and small-cap outperformance signal a decisive shift in focus toward trade policy and its inflationary impact, overriding a quiet day for economic data.

By Joe 盧, CFA | July 8, 2025

Executive Summary

US large-cap equities finished a volatile session largely unchanged as investors weighed renewed trade policy threats against a light economic calendar.

• A significant divergence emerged as domestically-focused small caps rallied while sector leadership shifted decisively to Materials and Energy on inflation concerns.
• US Treasury yields finished flat after an intraday spike, indicating uncertainty over whether tariffs will ultimately prove more inflationary or damaging to growth.
• The administration's threat of steep new tariffs, including a 50% levy on copper, has become the market's primary driver, overshadowing minor economic releases.
• President Trump’s new tariff ultimatum against major trading partners has shifted the market's focus squarely onto geopolitical trade negotiations ahead of an August 1st deadline.

The market's flat finish today conceals a significant underlying rotation driven by the abrupt return of an aggressive, tariff-focused trade policy. This price action does not signal indecision, but rather a swift recalibration of risk as investors begin pricing in the direct inflationary consequences of protectionism. The day's most telling moves—a sharp spike in industrial commodities and a clear preference for domestically-oriented small-cap stocks—confirm that the market narrative has pivoted from monitoring economic data to anticipating the impact of trade conflict.

The evidence for this shift is unambiguous. Copper futures surged nearly 10% following the White House's threat to impose a 50% tariff, pulling the entire Materials sector higher. This, along with strength in the Energy sector, illustrates a clear flight to assets that stand to benefit from rising input costs and inflation. Further confirmation comes from the outperformance of the Russell 2000 index, whose small-cap constituents are generally more insulated from international trade disputes than the large-cap multinationals of the S&P 500. Conversely, sectors sensitive to political headwinds, like solar energy, faced selling pressure after the administration took aim at green subsidies.

With a light economic calendar, incoming data had little influence. The NFIB small business survey was notable only in that firms signaled a greater intention to raise prices, a finding that aligns perfectly with the tariff narrative. The bond market, which saw yields pare early gains to close flat, remains the key battleground for discerning the ultimate impact. Fixed income investors are now weighing whether tariffs will fuel a sustained inflationary impulse that pushes yields higher, or if they will ultimately derail economic activity, creating a headwind for growth and yields.

Looking ahead, the August 1st deadline for new trade deals creates a defined period of risk and potential volatility. Upcoming events, including this week's FOMC minutes and Treasury auctions, will be interpreted through this trade-centric lens. The focus has decisively shifted from the Federal Reserve's intended policy path to how escalating trade tensions could force the central bank's hand.

Tuesday Asset Focus: Regional Indices & Taiwanese Stock Trends

Today's report highlights a clear loss of momentum across key Asian equity markets. While trend signals remain positive in most regions, the strength of the rally has notably softened in Japan and South Korea over the past week. This deceleration is particularly evident within Taiwan's largest companies, where bellwethers like Taiwan Semiconductor have faltered, signaling a potential leadership shift or growing weakness at the top of the market.

Exhibit 1: Regional Equity Indices (in USD)

Taiwan (Proxy ETF: EWT): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲

• Hong Kong (Proxy ETF: EWH): Current: ▲▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• China (Proxy ETF: MCHI): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
• Japan (Proxy ETF: EWJ): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
• South Korea (Proxy ETF: EWY): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲

The positive trend across Asian markets has begun to show signs of fatigue. Both Japan and South Korea saw their trends deteriorate from Strongly Positive to Positive, indicating a slowdown in their upward momentum. Hong Kong remains the clear leader, maintaining its Strongly Positive signal, while Taiwan and China held steady with stable Positive trends. The broad-based, though weakening, positive sentiment suggests investors are still constructive on the region but are becoming more selective.

Exhibit 2: Top 5 Taiwanese Companies (in TWD)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturng Co Ltd (Ticker: 2330): Current: --, Last Week: ▲

• Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (Ticker: 2317): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
• MediaTek Inc (Ticker: 2454): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
• Quanta Computer Inc (Ticker: 2382): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
• Delta Electronics Inc (Ticker: 2308): Current: --, Last Week: ▲

A clear deterioration is visible among Taiwan's leading corporations. Key industry giants Taiwan Semiconductor and Delta Electronics both saw their trends weaken from Positive to Neutral, signaling a loss of momentum. This comes as Hon Hai Precision and Quanta Computer remain stuck in a Negative trend, and MediaTek continues to register a Strongly Negative signal. The underperformance of these market bellwethers presents a divergence from the broader Taiwan index, which remains positive, indicating that leadership is now coming from other parts of the market.

👍'Like' this article if you found this research valuable.

📲 Join our private channels to get more trend indicators and market information delivered directly to you. Choose your preferred channel to stay informed.

📰Follow this blog.

💬Connect with us on LINE.

➡️Share this analysis to someone in your network who appreciates a data-driven perspective.

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.

立即加入《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》LINE@官方帳號，獲得最新專欄資訊（點此加入）

關於《Joe’s 華爾街脈動》

鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。