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【Joe’s華爾街脈動】無視關稅威脅，股市因債息下跌而大漲
強勁的十年期公債標售推低殖利率，帶動科技股領漲，蓋過了新一輪貿易關稅和無定論的聯準會會議紀錄的影響
Joe 盧, CFA | 2025年7月9日 美東時間
重點摘要
- 由於美國公債殖利率顯著下降，蓋過了新關稅公告引發的擔憂，美國股市普遍上漲。
- 科技和公用事業類股領漲，輝達(Nvidia)市值達到里程碑式的4兆美元，證實了AI主題的持續強勢。
- 在廣受歡迎的標售後，十年期美國公債殖利率急劇下跌至4.34%，顯示市場對美國公債需求強勁。
- 六月份聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)的會議紀錄顯示，美國聯準會對於降息路徑存在分歧，證實了市場對七月份按兵不動的預期，但保留了九月份降息的可能性。
- 白宮宣布對更多國家徵收新關稅，然市場反應平淡，顯示投資者正越過初步威脅，將目光投向談判結果。
今日盤勢最明確的動態是，市場果斷地將焦點放在有利的金融環境上，而非不斷升級的貿易言論，這顯示投資者的信心目前更受國內因素而非地緣政治頭條新聞的影響。週三漲勢的主要催化劑是債券殖利率的顯著下跌。十年期美國公債殖利率下跌7個基點，至4.34%，此一走勢在一場非常強勁的390億美元標售後加速。強勁的需求，尤其來自間接投標者的需求，證實了市場對美國主權債務的深厚胃納，這透過降低未來企業獲利的折現率，為風險性資產提供了強大的順風。
資本成本的下降直接助長了今日盤勢中的領導族群。估值對利率高度敏感的科技股飆升，那斯達克指數表現優異，輝達(Nvidia)更跨越了歷史性的4兆美元市值門檻。此里程碑不僅僅具象徵性，它再次確認了市場對AI驅動成長論述的堅定不移。作為經典債券代理的公用事業類股的上漲，進一步證實了殖利率下降是當日的主導主題。相較之下，川普總統宣布對21個國家徵收新關稅，自8月1日生效，此消息基本上被市場忽略。市場從近期貿易協議的經驗中——即最初激進的關稅稅率在談判後被大幅調降——已建立了一套明確的應對劇本：忽視初步威脅，等待最終協議。
今日的另一主要事件——美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)六月份會議紀錄的發布，並未擾亂市場的樂觀情緒。會議細節證實了委員會在政策利率的未來路徑上分裂為三大陣營，七月份降息的可能性極低。這點早已被市場所消化。缺乏任何新的鷹派意外，有效地為漲勢清除了潛在障礙，讓投資者得以專注於來自債券市場更為直接和實質的支撐。市場焦點現已從關稅風險轉向談判過程，對市場而言，後者是一個波動性遠低於前者、更容易定價的因素。只要國內金融環境保持寬鬆，股市阻力最小的路徑仍然是向上。
週三資產焦點：美國總體經濟與債券趨勢
今日的焦點是美國經濟情勢和公債市場。關鍵經濟指標仍然陷於穩定但矛盾的格局，正面的企業獲利未能抵銷對消費者信心和資本流動的擔憂。在債券市場，過去一週出現了明顯的惡化，中期公債的正面動能減弱，顯示投資者日益謹慎。
圖表一：美國總體經濟指標
- 投資存續期間：當前：--，上週：--
- 企業獲利：當前：▲，上週：▲
- 通貨膨脹：當前：--，上週：--
- 資金流向(美元)：當前：▼▼，上週：▼▼
- 消費者信心：當前：▼，上週：▼
過去一週，主要的美國經濟指標趨勢並無變化，暫時呈現穩定的景象。企業獲利的正向展望持續被資金流入美元的非常負面趨勢以及消費者信心的輕微負面趨勢所抵銷。在通貨膨脹和投資存續期間維持中性立場的情況下，數據證實了市場環境處於正面基本面驅動力被總體經濟逆風所抑制的僵局。
圖表二：美國債券(美元計價)
- 1-3年期美國公債(代表ETF：SHY)：當前：--，上週：--
- 3-7年期美國公D(代表ETF：IEI)：當前：▲，上週：▲▲
- 7-10年期美國公債(代表ETF：IEF)：當前：--，上週：▲
- 10-20年期美國公債(代表ETF：TLH)：當前：▼，上週：▼
- 20年期以上美國公債(代表ETF：TLT)：當前：▼，上週：▼
過去一週，美國公債的趨勢轉弱，顯示上漲動能明顯喪失。3-7年期美國公債的趨勢從非常正向減速至輕微正面，而7-10年期債券則從輕微正面惡化至中性。曲線的短端維持在中性，而長端（10年以上）則維持其輕微負面的趨勢。此一轉變表明投資者對存續期間的偏好正在減弱，對近期債券市場的強勢構成挑戰。
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本電子報僅供參考，不構成任何證券或資產類別的投資建議或買賣推薦。文中所表達的觀點為作者截至發布日期的觀點，如有變動，恕不另行通知。所呈現的資訊乃基於從相信可靠的來源所獲取的數據，但其準確性、完整性和及時性不作保證。過往表現並非未來結果的指標。投資涉及風險，包括可能損失本金。讀者在做出任何投資決策前，應諮詢其財務顧問。作者及相關實體可能持有本文所討論的資產或資產類別的部位。
Markets Rally Past Tariff Headlines as Falling Bond Yields Signal Confidence
A strong 10-year Treasury auction pushes yields lower, fueling a tech-led advance that overshadowed another round of trade tariffs and inconclusive Fed minutes.
By Joe 盧, CFA | July 9, 2025
Executive Summary
- U.S. equities advanced broadly as a significant drop in Treasury yields outweighed concerns from new tariff announcements.
- Technology and utility sectors led the gains, with Nvidia reaching a landmark $4 trillion market capitalization, confirming the persistent strength of the AI theme.
- The 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply to 4.34% following a well-received auction that signaled robust demand for U.S. debt.
- Minutes from the June FOMC meeting revealed a Federal Reserve divided on the path for rate cuts, confirming market expectations of inaction in July but keeping a September cut in play.
- The White House announced new tariffs on an expanded list of countries, yet the market's muted reaction suggests investors are looking past initial threats toward negotiated outcomes.
The defining dynamic of the session was the market's decisive focus on favorable financial conditions over escalating trade rhetoric, signaling that investor confidence is currently anchored by domestic factors rather than geopolitical headlines. The primary catalyst for Wednesday's rally was the pronounced drop in bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 7 basis points to 4.34%, a move accelerated by a very strong $39 billion auction. Robust demand, particularly from indirect bidders, confirms a deep appetite for U.S. sovereign debt, which provides a powerful tailwind for risk assets by lowering the discount rate on future earnings.
This decline in the cost of capital directly fueled the leadership seen in today's session. Technology stocks, whose valuations are highly sensitive to interest rates, surged, with the Nasdaq outperforming and Nvidia crossing the historic $4 trillion market capitalization threshold. This milestone is not merely symbolic; it reaffirms the market’s unwavering conviction in the AI-driven growth narrative. The rally in the utilities sector, a classic bond-proxy, further validates that falling yields were the day's dominant theme. In contrast, President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on 21 countries, effective August 1st, was largely dismissed. The market's experience with recent trade deals, where initial aggressive tariff rates were significantly negotiated down, has established a clear playbook: discount the initial threat and await the final agreement.
The day's other main event, the release of the June FOMC meeting minutes, failed to disrupt the positive sentiment. The details confirmed a committee that is fragmented into three camps regarding the future of the policy rate, with a July cut appearing highly unlikely. This was already priced in by the market. The lack of any new hawkish surprise effectively removed a potential obstacle for the rally, leaving the path clear for investors to focus on the more immediate and tangible support from the bond market. The focus has now shifted from the risk of tariffs to the process of negotiation, a far less volatile factor for markets to price. As long as domestic financial conditions remain accommodative, the path of least resistance for equities remains upward.
Wednesday Asset Focus: U.S. Economics & Bond Trends
Today's focus is on the U.S. economic landscape and Treasury market. The key economic indicators remain locked in a stable but conflicting pattern, with positive corporate earnings failing to offset concerns around consumer strength and capital flows. In the bond market, a clear deterioration occurred over the past week, as positive momentum in mid-duration Treasuries faded, signaling growing investor caution.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Economic Indicators
- Investment Duration: Current: --, Last Week: --
- Corporate Earnings: Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲
- Inflation: Current: --, Last Week: --
- Currency Flow (into USD): Current: ▼▼, Last Week: ▼▼
- Consumer Strength: Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
The primary U.S. economic indicators showed no change in trend over the past week, presenting a picture of stability for now. The positive outlook for Corporate Earnings continues to be offset by a Strongly Negative trend in Currency Flow into the U.S. dollar and a Mildly Negative trend in Consumer Strength. With Inflation and Investment Duration holding a Neutral stance, the data confirms a market environment where positive fundamental drivers are being held in check by macro headwinds, creating a stalemate.
Exhibit 2: U.S. Bonds (in USD)
- 1-3 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: SHY): Current: --, Last Week: --
- 3-7 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEI): Current: ▲, Last Week: ▲▲
- 7-10 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: IEF): Current: --, Last Week: ▲
- 10-20 Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLH): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
- 20+ Year US Treasuries (Proxy ETF: TLT): Current: ▼, Last Week: ▼
The trend in U.S. Treasuries weakened over the last week, revealing a clear loss of upward momentum. The 3-7 Year US Treasuries saw its trend decelerate from Strongly Positive to Mildly Positive, while the 7-10 Year segment deteriorated from Mildly Positive to Neutral. The short end of the curve remained stable at Neutral, and the long end (10+ years) held its Mildly Negative trend. This shift indicates that investor appetite for duration is diminishing, challenging the recent strength in the bond market.
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This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset class. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should consult with their own financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author and associated entities may hold positions in the assets or asset classes discussed herein.
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鉅亨網特別邀請到擁有逾 22 年美國投資圈資歷、CFA 認證的機構操盤人 Joseph Lu 擔任專欄主筆。
Joe 為台裔美國人，曾管理超過百億美元規模的基金資產，並為總資產高達數千億美元的多家頂級金融機構提供資產配置優化建議。
Joe 目前帶領著由美國頂尖大學教授與博士組成的精英團隊，透過獨家開發的 "趨勢脈動 TrendFolios® 指標"，為台灣投資人深度解析全球市場脈動，提供美股市場第一手專業觀點，協助投資人掌握先機。